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Given what has happened to Tampa....
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Post by telson13 on Feb 23, 2018 23:03:30 GMT -5
The homerism here is crazy. I mean come on, Archer as the number five on the Red Sox? Put down the kool aid. In fairness though, right now he’d probably be the 4 behind Pomeranz. Their rotation, if Price and Rodriguez get healthy, could be stupid good. Of course, all the more reason not to completely obliterate the farm for the luxury of a 1-2 WAR potential upgrade in the 4 spot. To me, it only makes sense if they could move Porcello and Kelly (if Tburg and Smith are back in form) for some value, had a couple of breakout prospects, and flipped it all...and that’s probaby not cutting it barring some stupendous luck.
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Post by p23w on Feb 23, 2018 23:35:49 GMT -5
Look at the match ups. Not the aggregate stats when aligning your rotation in the playoffs. If the RS face the Yankees Archer would start game #3 (on the road) and game #2 at the Fens. He would probably start game #3 against HSTN, home or away. If Archer is a Yankee he starts game #4. home or away, against the RS and game #2 (probably) against HSTN. Think about it. Sabathia has owned the RS in recent years. The RS have owned Archer. Archer has owned HSTN, and pitched well against NY. Given that TB is tanking for 2018 and their top pitching prospect is out for two years, they could be sold on Groome who could be only two years away. For me Archer is not the ideal RHSP I covet for the RS, but he is the best available who sports good numbers against the two teams that I believe the RS will have to go through to get to the WS. With my prediction track record, we'll probably face Cleveland, who owns Archer. Derek Lowe was 8-10 with an ERA north of 6 lifetime against the Yankees when he took the mound for Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS against NY. He pitched 6 one hit innings. The point is that I don't think those things matter in a SSS type of situation. It doesn't matter because a) it makes no sense for the Sox to give up their thin farm system when you consider the Sox have six viable starter already, and b) you say Archer should start Game 3, but if Sale and Price are Sale and Price, they're your game 1 and 2 starters, and if Porcello bounces back somewhat, he's as good an option as Archer, or if Pomeranz pitches as well as last season, he's a better option for Game 3, or if Wright gets a shot and pitches like he did before getting injured or E-Rod, with a healthy knee, continues the progression he was making pre-injury, you have viable options for Game 4. TB will get a better offer by somebody with a better farm system than the Sox (which could be NY), but on a really good team he's a #3/4, but not necessarily better than what the Red Sox already have. The Archer thing makes no sense when you consider that other teams have more to offer, the Red Sox really don't have a glaring need, and a thin farm system and are already bumping up near the 237 million mark. The Red Sox are not getting Archer, simply put, and it's alright. Given the current roster, the RS will NOT have 6 viable starters come October. How many "viable" starters they will have for the playoffs is hard to say. I would hope four viable starters, three to "start" games and one for the bullpen. I like Porcello, but his stuff is more finesse than power. I would far prefer Archer against the NYY's and "Stros than Porcello. If you go with Pomeranz for a game #3 against either the Yanks or the Astros you are tempting the fates by throwing 3 straight lefties against predominately RH line ups. I'll be very surprised if Wright is a viable starter come October. Houston got their hired guns, Verlander and Cole to go along with their home grown lefty. They are not in the market for Archer, and yes they could easily outbid the RS for his services. The Yanks have three viable RHSP and two lefties, an aging vet who may hang it up after this year, and a quasi talented young lefty with zip for post season experience. The Yanks are in the market for a LHSP, not another righty. And yes the Yanks could outbid the RS for Archer, if Archer was a Lefty he'd probably already be a Yankee. I could give a rats pitute about where Archer would fit on the RS during the regular season. I'm interested in Archer for the post season rotation. I think the RS have a need for a power RHSP going into the post season. I believe this pitching staff will get through the regular season just fine. I don't like the staff, as constituted, going against either Houston or NY in the post season.
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Post by bruinsfan94 on Feb 24, 2018 9:10:53 GMT -5
The homerism here is crazy. I mean come on, Archer as the number five on the Red Sox? Put down the kool aid. In fairness though, right now he’d probably be the 4 behind Pomeranz. Their rotation, if Price and Rodriguez get healthy, could be stupid good. Of course, all the more reason not to completely obliterate the farm for the luxury of a 1-2 WAR potential upgrade in the 4 spot. To me, it only makes sense if they could move Porcello and Kelly (if Tburg and Smith are back in form) for some value, had a couple of breakout prospects, and flipped it all...and that’s probaby not cutting it barring some stupendous luck. Archer would be the number 2 on the sox. Price has yet to do anything for the Sox and Pomeranz just had one good year. Archer has a ton of talent.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 24, 2018 10:57:24 GMT -5
In fairness though, right now he’d probably be the 4 behind Pomeranz. Their rotation, if Price and Rodriguez get healthy, could be stupid good. Of course, all the more reason not to completely obliterate the farm for the luxury of a 1-2 WAR potential upgrade in the 4 spot. To me, it only makes sense if they could move Porcello and Kelly (if Tburg and Smith are back in form) for some value, had a couple of breakout prospects, and flipped it all...and that’s probaby not cutting it barring some stupendous luck. Archer would be the number 2 on the sox. Price has yet to do anything for the Sox and Pomeranz just had one good year. Archer has a ton of talent. What has Archer done for the Sox? Kinda funny that Price had more bWAR than Archer last season and he only pitched 1/3rd of it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 24, 2018 11:26:26 GMT -5
Over the last two years Archer has made 7 starts combined at Fenway and Yankee Stadium. Go look at the stats he was horrible. Not a guy the Yankees or Red Sox want pitching a playoff game in either stadium. The Rays are having a firesale and there is a reason why Archer hasn't been traded. His value is at an all-time low.
Bruinsfan please explain to me why you just seem to be overlooking two full years of stats when he's not pitching in Tampa, a pitchers park? The numbers are staggering. Tons of players have one down year, so I don't think much of it, but two years during what should be his prime is eye opening.
Archer isn't a horrible pitcher by any means, but he hasn't been close to an Ace the last two years. He's the rare pitcher that has increased his strikeouts by a good margin, decreased his walks, yet he is getting hit hard outside of Tampa. He's basically been getting a Coors Field effect when pitching in Tampa the last two years. So unless he can somehow get back to his 2015 ways, he's not a guy I want pitching in the AL East. If I was a GM of a team in the NL, in a big park, I would be all over him.
In my opinion I think after his breakout season, where he was crowned an ACE he struggles with that. He struggles on the road outside his comfort zone. He might just be a player that needs to be in a small market, you see it all the time. James example was a perfect one in my opinion. Yes Archer has a ton of talent, no one is questioning that, just the results he has got the last two years with that talent. Not everyone is built to deal with the presure of pitching in NY or Boston.
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giltg
Veteran
When the eagle is silent , the parrots begin to jabber.
Posts: 274
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Post by giltg on Feb 24, 2018 13:40:11 GMT -5
Here's an idea. As nice as it would be trade for Chris Archer it's been said in other threads that the Sox need a reliever. What if the Sox trade for Alex Colome the Rays closer last year who is saved not going to turn 30 until December of this year. He will make 5.3m this year and has two more years of arbitration left in 2019-20 . This year you could be the 8th inning guy and if the socks can't sign Kimbrel to an extension or is a free agent you have Colome waiting in the wings. If the Sox offer Holt or Marrero and Brian Johnson and Rusney Castillo with the Sox picking up some of his salary. These players are prospects anymore and it won't hurt the farm system .Just throwing this out there what do you think?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 24, 2018 14:18:31 GMT -5
Why would the Rays do that? You also would be increasing the Red Sox payroll for luxury tax purposes. As the money you pay of Castillo salary would count, unlike if he was just stuck in the minors and lets be real for him to have any real value you have to pay most of his salary.
Most likely never happens, but Joe Kelly, Sam Travis, some other prospect for Colome. By trading Kelly you only increase our payroll by like a million. Maybe they love Travis and they are losing Morrison. Thing is they should just wait till the deadline, if Colome pitches well they could get a ton for him.
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giltg
Veteran
When the eagle is silent , the parrots begin to jabber.
Posts: 274
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Post by giltg on Feb 24, 2018 17:03:07 GMT -5
Why would the Rays do that? You also would be increasing the Red Sox payroll for luxury tax purposes. As the money you pay of Castillo salary would count, unlike if he was just stuck in the minors and lets be real for him to have any real value you have to pay most of his salary. Most likely never happens, but Joe Kelly, Sam Travis, some other prospect for Colome. By trading Kelly you only increase our payroll by like a million. Maybe they love Travis and they are losing Morrison. Thing is they should just wait till the deadline, if Colome pitches well they could get a ton for him. Lol. As as soon as I propose a trade Tampa all of a sudden Tampa gets smart when making a trade.They release and then trade Corey Dickerson who hit 27 home runs for them last year. Trade Odorizzi for a single A Prospect. They wouldn't take Travis they just traded for CJ Cron. Trading Kelly for colome would be like trading a penny for another penny . The way I see it they traded Odorizzi away then Honeywell gets hurt so now they're down to two starting pitchers that's why I offer Brian Johnson Brock Holt/Deven Marrero who can play Third Base to replace Longoria and then a player to be named later. And you're wise enough to know that Castillo's money whatever the socks would pay would go on their payroll so hats off your right.Counter proposal?
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Post by bruinsfan94 on Feb 24, 2018 17:56:36 GMT -5
No other site have I seen anyone as low on Archer as on here. I think anyone would take having Archer and his contract over Price and his.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 24, 2018 18:19:56 GMT -5
One thing all there trades did was save money, yours has them taking on more money. A long-term contract for an older win now type player. That's not what rebuilding teams do, even when making shocking deals. Your whole package is players that might not even make our team or have negative value. Given this market, where relievers is the one group that has done very well, Colome has the best value among all those players. Not trying to slam you, just exaplaining why it won't every come close to happening. It also would have taken the Red Sox over the 237 limit, something Reports say we don't want to do. Reports say that's why we passed on Tony Watson, he cost too much. So money matters.
I included Kelly for his salary, you could include Holt, but he has less value in my opinion. Including those guys helps off set Colome salary. Overall I don't see a trade to be made. We don't have much money to spend and they most likely don't want either Kelly or Holt. If you just want an example of something that would be crazy, but unlikely to happen. Add one or two of our lower ranked but high upside players like Joan Martinez, Lorenzo Cedrola, Pedro Castellanos, etc. Those lottery ticket types can make certain deals happen, but can also backfire down the road.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 24, 2018 18:22:51 GMT -5
No other site have I seen anyone as low on Archer as on here. I think anyone would take having Archer and his contract over Price and his. Well that's not the same as saying he's better or wanting to trade for him. Just he has a great contract, which he does.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 24, 2018 18:29:06 GMT -5
In fairness though, right now he’d probably be the 4 behind Pomeranz. Their rotation, if Price and Rodriguez get healthy, could be stupid good. Of course, all the more reason not to completely obliterate the farm for the luxury of a 1-2 WAR potential upgrade in the 4 spot. To me, it only makes sense if they could move Porcello and Kelly (if Tburg and Smith are back in form) for some value, had a couple of breakout prospects, and flipped it all...and that’s probaby not cutting it barring some stupendous luck. Archer would be the number 2 on the sox. Price has yet to do anything for the Sox and Pomeranz just had one good year. Archer has a ton of talent. No, he wouldn’t. Price has a much longer track record of better results, and Pomeranz has been better the past two seasons. Price had better seasons in both 2015 and 2016. And Porcello won a Cy Young in 2016 while Archer was posting a bWAR of under 2. Pomeranz has higher bWARs the past two years and similar fWAR. “Has a ton of talent” doesn’t mean anything, his recent results wouldn’t warrant a 2 spot.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 24, 2018 19:01:48 GMT -5
Why would the Rays do that? You also would be increasing the Red Sox payroll for luxury tax purposes. As the money you pay of Castillo salary would count, unlike if he was just stuck in the minors and lets be real for him to have any real value you have to pay most of his salary. Most likely never happens, but Joe Kelly, Sam Travis, some other prospect for Colome. By trading Kelly you only increase our payroll by like a million. Maybe they love Travis and they are losing Morrison. Thing is they should just wait till the deadline, if Colome pitches well they could get a ton for him. Lol. As as soon as I propose a trade Tampa all of a sudden Tampa gets smart when making a trade.They release and then trade Corey Dickerson who hit 27 home runs for them last year. Trade Odorizzi for a single A Prospect. They wouldn't take Travis they just traded for CJ Cron. Trading Kelly for colome would be like trading a penny for another penny . The way I see it they traded Odorizzi away then Honeywell gets hurt so now they're down to two starting pitchers that's why I offer Brian Johnson Brock Holt/Deven Marrero who can play Third Base to replace Longoria and then a player to be named later. And you're wise enough to know that Castillo's money whatever the socks would pay would go on their payroll so hats off your right.Counter proposal? Why give up so much? Trade them Sandoval for Colome. And have them throw in some prospects.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 24, 2018 19:03:01 GMT -5
No other site have I seen anyone as low on Archer as on here. I think anyone would take having Archer and his contract over Price and his. We weren't talking about salaries, we were talking about what # Archer would be in the Red Sox top 5 starters.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 25, 2018 11:59:56 GMT -5
Guys you know that you can just debate how good Archer is on an absolute basis rather than aguing about where he fits into hypothetical rotations, right?
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