SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
4/17-4/19 Red Sox @ Angels Series Thread
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 19, 2018 8:25:42 GMT -5
The '03 Giants got to 15-2, but with 103 RS and 65 RA. We're sitting at 106 and 48. They lost game 18 and we'll have to wait to learn who the last team was to go 16-2. Not sure about last time, but I'm just seeing that the 55 Dodgers went an amazing 22-2. www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BRO/1955.shtmlHave also seen this reported as 22-3, not sure what I'm missing. The Dodgers had a 49 Run Differential (110 to 61) when they were 15-2. The '84 Tigers had 52, 104 to 52, in going 16-1. I wonder if anyone has ever been +60 after 17 games.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 19, 2018 8:32:20 GMT -5
Just wow. The Angels are a really good team and the Red Sox have mauled them the first two games.
Newsflash - JD Martinez can really hit. That HR he hit looked like he just flicked it out - to RF no less.
And Devers has started to crunch the ball.
I didn't understand Holt starting for Lin on Tuesday and Holt gets multiple hits including a HR. Benintendi hits the bench to make room for lefty Moreland in the lineup against the southpaw and Moreland rips 3 hits including that HR he totally crushed last night in the 9th. So much for second-guessing his lineup decisions!
It's amazing. Only 17 games in and the Sox have a double digit lead already on Baltimore and Tampa Bay. I think the O's can consider their firesale already.
The MFYs are 6.5 games out, but that won't last - they'll get their act together sooner or later.
The Jays are playing really well, but I'm not sold on them yet.
Can't say that Cora is having the greatest start to his managerial career yet - Joe Morgan started his career 19-1, but they're working on it.
In 1988, it was Morgan Magic. Maybe in 2018, it's Cora Karma.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 19, 2018 8:34:45 GMT -5
The Dodgers had a 49 Run Differential (110 to 61) when they were 15-2. The '84 Tigers had 52, 104 to 52, in going 16-1. I wonder if anyone has ever been +60 after 17 games. According to my quick pythag computations the 2018 Red Sox are a lucky team. They're 15-2, but they should only be 14-3. Nothing but luck.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 19, 2018 8:38:58 GMT -5
1. The Red Sox have a .485 SLG. The next best in baseball is .451. 2. Red Sox opponents are slugging .309. The next lowest in baseball is .329. That is, of course, insane. The Dodgers had a 49 Run Differential (110 to 61) when they were 15-2. The '84 Tigers had 52, 104 to 52, in going 16-1. I wonder if anyone has ever been +60 after 17 games. According to my quick pythag computations the 2018 Red Sox are a lucky team. They're 15-2, but they should only be 14-3. Nothing but luck.Right? Chris Sale and Rick Porcello have ERAs of 1.23 and 1.40. But what happens when they regress to their FIPs of... (checks notes)... 1.56 and 1.67? Then what?
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 19, 2018 9:37:19 GMT -5
Run Differential after 17 games (plus the number of games it took to get to +60), for the teams starting 15-2 or better (* went 16-1)
'18 BOS: +60 (17 G) '03 SFG +38 (98 G) *'87 MIL +42 (peaked at 45 in game 18) *'84 DET +52 (21 G) *'81 OAK +60 (17 G) '66 CLE +29 (peaked at 32 in game 37)) '55 BKN +55 (20 G)
The '55 Dodgers, '81 A's, and '84 Tigers are the only really comparable teams.
The Giants, Tigers, and Indians all lost game 18. Best RD after 18 games for the other six teams is the '81 A's +65, but they then lost games 19 and 20.
|
|
|
Post by Addam603 on Apr 19, 2018 9:53:41 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Apr 19, 2018 10:04:50 GMT -5
Red Sox are hitting 324/415/565 with runners in scoring position
|
|
ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,446
|
Post by ianrs on Apr 19, 2018 10:31:47 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 19, 2018 10:37:53 GMT -5
Glad to see that article because I'm sick of O'Brien continually talking about how much more aggressive they are this season while actually walking more. The only thing they are doing is taking fewer strikes on pitches that are good to hit. At some point, we have to talk about the role of the hitting coach because it seems like Hyers has been unbelievable so far. Time will tell if this works long term.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 19, 2018 10:47:32 GMT -5
Glad to see that article because I'm sick of O'Brien continually talking about how much more aggressive they are this season while actually walking more. The only thing they are doing is taking fewer strikes on pitches that are good to hit. You're reading this differently than I am, then. It seems that the point is that they are being more aggressive, but that because they have players with such good discipline (which, as the article notes, is different than patience) that the aggressiveness is almost totally directed at pitches within the strike zone. There’s barely any movement in the out-of-zone swings. The Red Sox have stayed consistently low, never falling outside of the best ten teams. The other line, though — that’s a change. In these counts in 2018, the Red Sox have an in-zone swing rate of almost 58%. They hadn’t before managed an in-zone swing rate of 48%. Look at these year-to-year MLB rankings. Even though it’s still only the middle of April, it’s very clear that this is a club with a different mindset. Red Sox rank in early-count Z-Swing% 2008: 27th 2009: 29th 2010: 30th 2011: 27th 2012: 28th 2013: 30th 2014: 30th 2015: 30th 2016: 30th 2017: 30th 2018: 2nd So they are swinging at a much higher percentage of strikes without swinging at more balls. Their change in Z-Swing is the highest in baseball, and it hasn't changed their walk rate, which... yeah, that's a good way to be awesome.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Apr 19, 2018 11:16:42 GMT -5
lol you beat me to it. Good article and terrific news, not only for the sensibility of it, and the payoff, but for seeing Cora’s a man of his word, with a plan, who puts it in action.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Apr 19, 2018 11:20:51 GMT -5
The crazy thing is that the Sox are going to be getting Xander and Pedey back on the offensive side, and will be adding Pomeranz, Wright, Poyner, Maddox and Thornburg to the pitching equation, while also having Workman and Scott stashed in Pawtucket.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Apr 19, 2018 11:29:32 GMT -5
Now would be a fun time to revisit the gloom-and-doom in the gameday thread when the Sox were 0-1.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 19, 2018 11:35:21 GMT -5
Glad to see that article because I'm sick of O'Brien continually talking about how much more aggressive they are this season while actually walking more. The only thing they are doing is taking fewer strikes on pitches that are good to hit. You're reading this differently than I am, then. It seems that the point is that they are being more aggressive, but that because they have players with such good discipline (which, as the article notes, is different than patience) that the aggressiveness is almost totally directed at pitches within the strike zone. There’s barely any movement in the out-of-zone swings. The Red Sox have stayed consistently low, never falling outside of the best ten teams. The other line, though — that’s a change. In these counts in 2018, the Red Sox have an in-zone swing rate of almost 58%. They hadn’t before managed an in-zone swing rate of 48%. Look at these year-to-year MLB rankings. Even though it’s still only the middle of April, it’s very clear that this is a club with a different mindset. Red Sox rank in early-count Z-Swing% 2008: 27th 2009: 29th 2010: 30th 2011: 27th 2012: 28th 2013: 30th 2014: 30th 2015: 30th 2016: 30th 2017: 30th 2018: 2nd So they are swinging at a much higher percentage of strikes without swinging at more balls. Their change in Z-Swing is the highest in baseball, and it hasn't changed their walk rate, which... yeah, that's a good way to be awesome. The nuance of being aggressive with pitches in the strike zone is one that O'Brien unsurprisingly doesn't get. I kind of said the same thing you did with "The only thing they are doing is taking fewer strikes on pitches that are good to hit." (i.e. swinging at more pitches in the strike zone) For example, Mookie fouling off pitches on the outside part of the plate instead of trying to put it in play is not being aggressive. It's being smart.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 19, 2018 11:39:28 GMT -5
The crazy thing is that the Sox are going to be getting Xander and Pedey back on the offensive side, and will be adding Pomeranz, Wright, Poyner, Maddox and Thornburg to the pitching equation, while also having Workman and Scott stashed in Pawtucket. That they've barely been missed is just an unbelievable testimony to their depth. And when they come back, the depth will be even better.
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Apr 19, 2018 12:10:12 GMT -5
Now would be a fun time to revisit the gloom-and-doom in the gameday thread when the Sox were 0-1. lol yeah, I know I'm feeling bad for getting angry over Cora playing over Pedroia all those years ago. Alex is a legend.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
|
Post by radiohix on Apr 19, 2018 12:52:02 GMT -5
Happy birthday you graceful fielding beast!
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 19, 2018 13:50:33 GMT -5
Now would be a fun time to revisit the gloom-and-doom in the gameday thread when the Sox were 0-1. My thoughts on Joe Kelly as a pitcher hasn't changed since game 1 lol. I just like him a little more because he targets Yankee punks however.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 19, 2018 14:16:55 GMT -5
Glad to see that article because I'm sick of O'Brien continually talking about how much more aggressive they are this season while actually walking more. The only thing they are doing is taking fewer strikes on pitches that are good to hit. You're reading this differently than I am, then. It seems that the point is that they are being more aggressive, but that because they have players with such good discipline (which, as the article notes, is different than patience) that the aggressiveness is almost totally directed at pitches within the strike zone. There’s barely any movement in the out-of-zone swings. The Red Sox have stayed consistently low, never falling outside of the best ten teams. The other line, though — that’s a change. In these counts in 2018, the Red Sox have an in-zone swing rate of almost 58%. They hadn’t before managed an in-zone swing rate of 48%. Look at these year-to-year MLB rankings. Even though it’s still only the middle of April, it’s very clear that this is a club with a different mindset. Red Sox rank in early-count Z-Swing% 2008: 27th 2009: 29th 2010: 30th 2011: 27th 2012: 28th 2013: 30th 2014: 30th 2015: 30th 2016: 30th 2017: 30th 2018: 2nd So they are swinging at a much higher percentage of strikes without swinging at more balls. Their change in Z-Swing is the highest in baseball, and it hasn't changed their walk rate, which... yeah, that's a good way to be awesome. To clarify, this is their behavior on the first two pitches of a PA. They used to be dead last on swinging at first- or second-pitch strikes, and now only one team is swinging more at them. The old philosophy, straight out of Ted Williams' The Science of Hitting, was "be selective with strikes in the zone, because the first one and maybe the second are unlikely to me the most hittable pitches you see. And you get a big boost in walk rate as a free bonus!" The new philosophy is "be aggressive on the first strike that you see, and sometimes the second, because you may not see a more hittable pitch." The change in philosophy has largely been driven, I think, by an improved quality of pitching. Thee ever-rocketing MLB strikeout rate reflects that.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 19, 2018 14:56:10 GMT -5
The new philosophy is "be aggressive on the first strike that you see, and sometimes the second, because you may not see a more hittable pitch." The change in philosophy has largely been driven, I think, by an improved quality of pitching. Thee ever-rocketing MLB strikeout rate reflects that. This line reminds me of those times when teams tried to take a patient approach with Pedro when he was still in his prime. It usually ended up with the batter being down in the count 0-2 to a guy with three 70+ grade pitches, a situation that tends to not end well. I don't know that there was a good approach to facing 1997-2003 Pedro, but this was always one of the more entertaining bad ones. At least if your thing is seeing dudes flail at 0-2 changeups that are moving sideways.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 19, 2018 14:58:02 GMT -5
We saw the exact same thing last year with Sale. Some teams started swinging at the first pitch every time.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 19, 2018 15:13:29 GMT -5
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 19, 2018 15:21:46 GMT -5
The least likely thing that's happened this season is also, beautifully, the least likely thing to be mentioned as the least likely thing. Two winters ago the Sox signed a nobody AAA pitcher for their Pawtucket rotation. His ERA for us was good but not great, but he ranked 13th in FIP and 15th in xFIP of 116 AAA pitchers with 80+ IP (essentially all the regular starters). So there was something there, perhaps something that wasn't there previously. Or maybe not. AAA veterans have those kind of up years all the time. So I think it was still a surprise when he was invited to ST as an NRI. It was a shock when he made the 25-man roster, and somewhat of an inside joke when Alex Cora credited that to his spring training performance. Because it's sabermetric 101 that ST results are almost entirely meaningless. You only pay attention to what happens in ST if there is a tangible difference (new pitch, new swing path, new approach) that scouts can see. So, if you think it through, maybe it's not unlikely that Marcus Walden has a 79 xFIP- and a .290 BABIP and hasn't given up a HR. Even substituting an MLB-average HR/FB rate, that's a guy who can pitch the 7th inning for a wild-card contender. And he's always been a guy with a low HR/FB (and a high GB%). I don't think he ever makes the team if they weren't of the opinion that he could be a solid MLB pitcher if he did such-and-such differently. We have no pitch use breakdown from AAA, so we have no idea what he might be doing different. His two-seamer has been a below-average pitch, but his cutter and slider have been very effective, so it may be as simple as "as a reliever he could throw those two good pitches much more and be above average." Now, his 79 xFIP- in 11 IP may well regress to the mean, but not as much as you might think; after 30 innings there's no tendency at all for good xFIP-'s to become any less good.* Based on what we've seen already, he's likely a useful MLB reliever, a guy capable of filling the Blaine Boyer role of last year's team, but with options. And unlike Mookie becoming a monster, Xander breaking out, etc., etc. ... this was on nobody's list of possible good things. But there's every reason to think it's the product of the same organizational smarts. * Technically, for pitchers with an xFIP- below 100, there's no increase in the standard deviation of xFIP- in a season, as a function of sample size, until you go below 30 IP. You use only good pitchers because the bad ones get weeded out progressively as their innings mount up, so you get a very different relationship between sample size and variation of xFIP-, one driven entirely by selection bias. Incidentally, the increase in unusually good xFIP-'s in seasons with < 30 IP is largely driven by injury-shortened seasons by star pitchers like Strasburg and Syndergaard.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 19, 2018 15:36:00 GMT -5
They likely don't want him playing on artificial turf in Toronto.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
|
Post by radiohix on Apr 19, 2018 16:17:26 GMT -5
Ohtani is DHing and batting 6th tonight, old friend Chris Young is batting 8th.
|
|
|