SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2018 Boston Celtics offseason
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,044
|
Post by mobaz on Sept 6, 2018 8:55:26 GMT -5
I'm much more excited for the Celtics than the Patriots this year. This team is going to be FUN to watch. #18 is in reach.
|
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Sept 6, 2018 11:12:00 GMT -5
I'm much more excited for the Celtics than the Patriots this year. This team is going to be FUN to watch. #18 is in reach. AND will be for the next 10 years or so. |
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 6, 2018 16:16:18 GMT -5
Thinking about Basketball, what do you guys think of the Suns trade for Ryan Anderson? If it was just Knighg for Anderson, while a little weird I'd be like OK. Thing is they included Chriss. I just don't get the move. Now they need a PG and have been calling about Rozier, which won't happen. Chriss was a crazy raw guy with major upside who just turned 21. I just don't see why you trade him so you can get an old Ryan Anderson, who makes more than Knight. I just don't understand all of there moves like getting an older Ariza, rather than going after younger guys. Its like they want to try and win now in a stacked Western Confrence, when they should be taking it slow.
|
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Sept 6, 2018 18:28:06 GMT -5
Thinking about Basketball, what do you guys think of the Suns trade for Ryan Anderson? If it was just Knighg for Anderson, while a little weird I'd be like OK. Thing is they included Chriss. I just don't get the move. Now they need a PG and have been calling about Rozier, which won't happen. Chriss was a crazy raw guy with major upside who just turned 21. I just don't see why you trade him so you can get an old Ryan Anderson, who makes more than Knight. I just don't understand all of there moves like getting an older Ariza, rather than going after younger guys. Its like they want to try and win now in a stacked Western Confrence, when they should be taking it slow. I think knight was a malcontent that they wanted away from their young guys. No real evidence of that, but it feels that way. Chriss has been terrible and I think he needed a change of scenery. They took 6m of cap space for next year after extending booker early and wasting more cap space so it’s questionable. |
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,044
|
Post by mobaz on Sept 7, 2018 9:13:14 GMT -5
Wonder if the PHX GM is starting to feel the heat, and feels the need to gun for the 6/7/8 slot in the west (which I actually think is achievable if Booker is more than a Good Stats Bad Team guy and the young guys live up to potential).
I don't think it was a bad trade per se but it's weird not to have a point guard. Lots of folks also high on De’Anthony Melton, the 4th guy in the trade whom Phoenix got who was highly rated but caught up in a scandal at USC. I'd kinda hoped the Celtics would buy back in to the 2nd round to pick him up.
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,044
|
Post by mobaz on Sept 7, 2018 9:22:34 GMT -5
Also time to start 2019 Draft Pick Watch.
Best case scenario: Celtics get Pick 2 (Sacramento), 9 (Griz), 15 (Clippers are 8th seed) and 30 (Banner 18!)
Worst case scenario is Grizz stink and Clippers miss the playoffs so neither conveys, Sac becomes pick 1 so we get Philly's pick and the Sixers hit their ceiling and are in the 27+ range with a #1 draft pick on the way.
Actually, probably "best case" includes the Grizz pick rolling over (top 6 protected in 2020 and unprotected in 2021) as long as the others work out well.
Another year of exciting scoreboard & lottery watching. I predict that neither of Grizz/Clippers convey, so we'll be on pins and needles on lottery night for where the Sac pick ends up, potentially swinging the power in the East for the next decade.
|
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Sept 7, 2018 9:30:38 GMT -5
Also time to start 2019 Draft Pick Watch. Best case scenario: Celtics get Pick 2 (Sacramento), 9 (Griz), 15 (Clippers are 8th seed) and 30 (Banner 18!) Worst case scenario is Grizz stink and Clippers miss the playoffs so neither conveys, Sac becomes pick 1 so we get Philly's pick and the Sixers hit their ceiling and are in the 27+ range with a #1 draft pick on the way. Actually, probably "best case" includes the Grizz pick rolling over (top 6 protected in 2020 and unprotected in 2021) as long as the others work out well. Another year of exciting scoreboard & lottery watching. I predict that neither of Grizz/Clippers convey, so we'll be on pins and needles on lottery night for where the Sac pick ends up, potentially swinging the power in the East for the next decade. The best case scenario is number 2 pick and the Memphis pick rolls over another year and the Clippers slide into the playoffs because we don’t want 4 first next year. It’s not the end of the world but long term if you could draw it up, that Memphis pick would roll over for 2 years while they age and the Celtics get to make another top 3 pick in 2021 |
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Sept 7, 2018 11:05:57 GMT -5
Memphis could be good enough this year to make that a mid round pick, that would be the worst case scenario for that pick. Hope I am wrong and they really stink thus pushing the pick off which would be ideal, obviously. My guess is that pick pick conveys this year in the vicinity of 10-12.
The Kings pick looks to be about an 86% chance of being a very good one, I like those odds but anything can happen and missing out on that would be huge.
As for the Clippers, I doubt highly that they make the playoffs so we are up the creek on that pick this year. Hopefully they can improve enough next year to make the playoffs and the pick conveys but it doesn't look good from my vantage point, maybe, hopefully. I would love to be wrong.
|
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 7, 2018 13:10:09 GMT -5
Thinking about Basketball, what do you guys think of the Suns trade for Ryan Anderson? If it was just Knighg for Anderson, while a little weird I'd be like OK. Thing is they included Chriss. I just don't get the move. Now they need a PG and have been calling about Rozier, which won't happen. Chriss was a crazy raw guy with major upside who just turned 21. I just don't see why you trade him so you can get an old Ryan Anderson, who makes more than Knight. I just don't understand all of there moves like getting an older Ariza, rather than going after younger guys. Its like they want to try and win now in a stacked Western Confrence, when they should be taking it slow. I think knight was a malcontent that they wanted away from their young guys. No real evidence of that, but it feels that way. Chriss has been terrible and I think he needed a change of scenery. They took 6m of cap space for next year after extending booker early and wasting more cap space so it’s questionable. Every move outside of drafting Ayton has been questionable. If you are going to give up on Chriss after his age 19 and age 20 seasons you shouldn't have drafted him to begin with. He was a long-term project. He was the youngest player in the draft and crazy raw, but also an amazing athlete. While not being that good overall, he has shown flashes he could be a very good defender. Rozier didn't take off till his 3rd year after playing two years in College. Chriss isn't a Fab Melo who was just lost and had no hope of ever being good. I also trust Morey as a GM. I would have traded for Chriss. That guy is so athletic its crazy, its like watching Jackson Jr., just not as skilled. Last two years per 36 mins numbers for Chriss 2017 15.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.4 blocks, 2018 13.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists , 1.2 steals, 1.7 blocks. |
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 7, 2018 13:21:46 GMT -5
Memphis is hard to project. All depends if they can stay healthy and how good Jackson is. I'd say 50 50 chance we get that pick right now. Almost seems crazy when looking at that team as they added a good amount of depth, but the West is stacked. Also Parsons could be awesome or miss the whole year. Anderson could be solid or just a product of the Spurs.
Clippers are exactly the type of team Doc can get a ton out of, Yet the West is stacked. Almost the same as Memphis can there Vets stay healthy and how good are the rookies? I'd say we have maybe a 20% chance of getting that pick this year. Heck that might be high, but you never know. A few injuries, good health and the rookies playing well and they could be close to a playoff team. They didn't rebuild, brought in guys like Gortat, resigned Williams and Bradley. That team looks like a perfect team to play a ton of small ball.
|
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Sept 8, 2018 7:21:30 GMT -5
So Jabari Bird was arrested for assault. The BP Domestic Assault team is on the scene so that’s not a good sign. He’s at the hospital so seems like something went down. Not going to jump to any judgements on this situation without the facts, but this could turn into a major disappointment.
I’m actually very high on Bird. He passes the athletic test, there’s no limitation there so his ceiling is actually pretty high. He comes from a high pedigree as well, he was a 5 star recruit. When you start talking about long term success of a franchise, I think a guy like him can turn into a key depth piece and possibly even play himself right out of that role and into a trade that can roll assets forward. I like his game a lot and I’ve enjoyed reading about his back story.
|
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Sept 8, 2018 9:43:02 GMT -5
So Jabari Bird was arrested for assault. The BP Domestic Assault team is on the scene so that’s not a good sign. He’s at the hospital so seems like something went down. Not going to jump to any judgements on this situation without the facts, but this could turn into a major disappointment. I’m actually very high on Bird. He passes the athletic test, there’s no limitation there so his ceiling is actually pretty high. He comes from a high pedigree as well, he was a 5 star recruit. When you start talking about long term success of a franchise, I think a guy like him can turn into a key depth piece and possibly even play himself right out of that role and into a trade that can roll assets forward. I like his game a lot and I’ve enjoyed reading about his back story. Early but it doesn't sound good for him. He was looking like a sleeper for the C's but I doubt it now or any time soon. |
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 8, 2018 12:27:40 GMT -5
www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24613847/jabari-bird-arrested-alleged-assault-strangling-kidnappingI won't pass judgement, but what he is being charged with is one of the worst cases involving an athlete in recent memory. Assault, strangling and kidnapping. This doesn't sound like a Steven Wright type situation. I was glad he made the team, he deserved it and he proved me wrong with his play after I wondered why they picked him. At the same time while be provided great depth, it was going to be very hard for him to get minutes this year. Teams normally don't lose 3 players to season ending injuries like we did last year. Plus the injuries to players like Smart and Larkin. His value was going to be down the road if you lost or traded Rozier, Irving, Morris, etc.
|
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 8, 2018 15:54:14 GMT -5
www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24613847/jabari-bird-arrested-alleged-assault-strangling-kidnappingI won't pass judgement, but what he is being charged with is one of the worst cases involving an athlete in recent memory. Assault, strangling and kidnapping. This doesn't sound like a Steven Wright type situation. I was glad he made the team, he deserved it and he proved me wrong with his play after I wondered why they picked him. At the same time while be provided great depth, it was going to be very hard for him to get minutes this year. Teams normally don't lose 3 players to season ending injuries like we did last year. Plus the injuries to players like Smart and Larkin. His value was going to be down the road if you lost or traded Rozier, Irving, Morris, etc. I don't see the Celtics keeping this guy around if he's proven guilty. Heck, I don't see a high chance of keeping him if he's cleared of most the charges. |
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 9, 2018 16:23:38 GMT -5
Pedro I don't think he's on the team if even one of those charges stick. His only chance is if this somehow wasn't his fault. Like the girl went crazy and he was just protecting himself, heck even then he's a long-shot. We'll have to wait for more information, but so far this sounds really bad. Steven Wright flipped out and smashed a phone, but by all accounts never put a hand on his wife.
|
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Sept 10, 2018 12:42:50 GMT -5
Pedro I don't think he's on the team if even one of those charges stick. His only chance is if this somehow wasn't his fault. Like the girl went crazy and he was just protecting himself, heck even then he's a long-shot. We'll have to wait for more information, but so far this sounds really bad. Steven Wright flipped out and smashed a phone, but by all accounts never put a hand on his wife. Bird was on the verge of his big shot as well. This is just sad. |
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Sept 10, 2018 13:54:48 GMT -5
Sad all the way around.
|
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Sept 11, 2018 15:30:56 GMT -5
SI puts out a top 100 list, they haven't released the top 50 but they have released the 51-100. Smart is left out but Rozier is in at 82. Smart is on a list of close but no cigar, hmmm. Maybe basketball needs more advanced metrics or SI should take a deeper look. To me Smart is our Draymond Green light, not as good for sure but brings much of the same.
No other Celtic is on the list which means they are all top 50. The starting 5 are all top 50, that is impressive.
|
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 12, 2018 16:17:30 GMT -5
For me real plus minus and boxscore plus minus and then those two brokendown into offense and defense are the advanced stats that show you Marcus Smarts value. They just measure how the team does points wise while a certain player is on the court. It's not perfect because it doesn't adjust for who you play with, but overall it does a very good job. Smart was 102 in RPM last year, Rozier was 86th and likely much higher if you looked at when he started and got big minutes. It rates Smart as one of the better defensive guards in the league, but his negative rating on offense kills his value. If he was just neutral on offense he'd be ranked around 70th in the league for example. This is also the stat that can measure things like hustle plays. That seems to matchup with what you see watching the games.
For me, our Draymond Green is Horford and it's funny they rank 18th and 19th in RPM. Both are better defensively, but also positives on offense. That's the difference with Smart, his offense takes away a good amount of his defensive value. Outside of Smart improving his shooting, which is a long-shot, he needs to shoot less and cut the turnovers down. Given the players he'll be playing with that just makes sense and will greatly improve his numbers. That being said, good luck with that. Smart is who he is at this point, a very good defensive player that most likely will be a negative on offense due to poor shooting and turnovers. Stevens just isn't the coach to tell any player to stop shooting, even when it seems so obvious. Next year there won't be many players playing that won't be better options to take shots, but that likely won't stop Smart. As good as Stevens is as a coach, I wonder if he'll be able to get the most out of Smart.
|
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Sept 12, 2018 18:22:47 GMT -5
For me real plus minus and boxscore plus minus and then those two brokendown into offense and defense are the advanced stats that show you Marcus Smarts value. They just measure how the team does points wise while a certain player is on the court. It's not perfect because it doesn't adjust for who you play with, but overall it does a very good job. Smart was 102 in RPM last year, Rozier was 86th and likely much higher if you looked at when he started and got big minutes. It rates Smart as one of the better defensive guards in the league, but his negative rating on offense kills his value. If he was just neutral on offense he'd be ranked around 70th in the league for example. This is also the stat that can measure things like hustle plays. That seems to matchup with what you see watching the games. For me, our Draymond Green is Horford and it's funny they rank 18th and 19th in RPM. Both are better defensively, but also positives on offense. That's the difference with Smart, his offense takes away a good amount of his defensive value. Outside of Smart improving his shooting, which is a long-shot, he needs to shoot less and cut the turnovers down. Given the players he'll be playing with that just makes sense and will greatly improve his numbers. That being said, good luck with that. Smart is who he is at this point, a very good defensive player that most likely will be a negative on offense due to poor shooting and turnovers. Stevens just isn't the coach to tell any player to stop shooting, even when it seems so obvious. Next year there won't be many players playing that won't be better options to take shots, but that likely won't stop Smart. As good as Stevens is as a coach, I wonder if he'll be able to get the most out of Smart. Maybe if the 2nd unit has Tatum and Rozier most of the time the C's can keep the ball out of his hands more. Would love to see Tatum taking 17+ shots a game this year. |
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Sept 12, 2018 20:03:48 GMT -5
Horford 16
Kyrie 17
Hayward 25
Tatum 39
Brown 47
|
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Sept 13, 2018 12:17:10 GMT -5
Horford ahead of Kyrie is just wrong. I know defense matters a lot and the small things whatever, but Kyrie's ceiling is just way higher.
|
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Sept 13, 2018 12:42:38 GMT -5
Horford ahead of Kyrie is just wrong. I know defense matters a lot and the small things whatever, but Kyrie's ceiling is just way higher. You have to take into consideration durability, but based on when they are on the court yea; I agree. Kyrie is a top 10 guy on the court. |
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Sept 13, 2018 12:43:04 GMT -5
Jabari Bird will be cut any hour now.
|
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 13, 2018 16:06:07 GMT -5
Real plus minus ranked Irving 45th in the league last year. He had the same rating as Rubio and was behind Eric Bledsoe who was 41st. His bad defense being a huge issue even though he played most of his minutes with studs, down to above average defenders. So he's likely worse than those numbers indicate. I don't fully agree with the numbers and I certainly wouldn't say it means those guys are better. It does highlight the fact that Irving has issues though. Box score plus minus gave him much better offensive numbers for example and I think his true value is in the middle of those two numbers. Both rated him a very bad defender, even though he was on a great defensive team.
I'll admit, maybe he can get better and grow in Stevens system, he does have less than a year in it. That isn't far fetched at all, but as good as he is at scoring, he has some big flaws. He might be a top 10 scorer in the NBA, I'd have to look at the players more, but that doesn't seem far fetched at all. I just don't see how he's even close to a top 10 player though. Outside of D, his huge issue being he's a PG that just goes massive stretches where he forgets to be a PG playing one on one ball. It's fun to watch and he's very good at it, but it can kill our offense which is all about ball movement. It why I though Rozier was a better PG than Irving last year. He just ran the offense. He wasn't playing tons of one on one ball and made sure players got to touch the ball. Rozier would drive and pass just as much as he would drive to score. Irvings ratio was much higher on just driving to score. I'd love to know the percentage of plays he just took the ball, went to the cover to create and then took a shot without anyone touching the ball. It had to be one of the higher percentages in the league, if he wasn't #1.
He has the skills to be a lot better. Maybe he just needed to get that out of his system after all those years with LeBron. We'll see, but it drove me crazy last year. So I don't have an issue with Horford being ranked above Irving. We don't almost make the finals if Horford is injured and we had Irving. He was by far the best player on last years team in the playoffs. It's not sexy because a lot of it was D, but he's darn good at it and unlike Irving he's almost always a team player that makes players around him better.
I want to add I do think Irving improves. After watching guys like Tatum, Brown, and Rozier go stretches where they dominated I think he'll trust them more. I think Hayward will also be huge in helping Irving. It's just to what level he'll improve. It's not that you don't want Irving scoring you certainly do, you just want it happening within the offense. Not with a ton of one on one ball that leaves everyone else just watching him. You want him being a better PG than he was last year. If he does that, this is the best team in the league by far. No team will be able to match it's offense, defense, and depth, not even the Warriors. They just need to play 100% team ball and it all starts with Irving.
|
|
|
