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5/31-6/3 Red Sox @ Astros Series Thread
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 4, 2018 6:27:58 GMT -5
Leon and Vazquez are below average offensively. I'm not sure what numbers you want to use that tell me otherwise. Vazquez last year: .348 / .378 / .467 (25 GS, 98 PA) start to June 1 .162 / .210 / .202 (26 GS, 105 PA) June 3 to July 25 .346 / .387 / .511 (36 GS, 142 PA) July 29 to end This is a dangerous hitting catcher who shares JBJ's problem of long slumps where he's shockingly, completely inept. This year's horrendous stretch hopefully ended at 146 PA. That HR was not a surprise if you realize that there is no predicting when a cold guy turns hot (or vice versa). Even with the slump, he finished with an OBP that would have been better than AL average for any batting order position than 2 through 4. He was a bit better than average for a 7 hitter and well above average for an 8 or 9 hitter. In the long run, he should be a bottom-of-the-order asset. Leon, of course, is also famously streaky. That's some serious gymnastics you're performing to tell me that Vazquez/Leon is not below average offensively - in 2018. So I guess according to what you're saying - Vazquez is having his 6/3 - 7/25 stretch early and he'll hit around .340 the rest of the way. I'm not sure I'm buying on that. Hope you're right and I'm wrong, and I'd be thrilled to tell you that's the case because that would close up a black hole they have at the bottom of the lineup. Either that or perhaps he won't be anywhere near as good offensively as he was last year when he was decent, pinging a lot of singles and not walking much or displaying much power, which when he was playing great defensively, was fine. Look, I'm not criticizing the Red Sox. Injuries happen. They happen usually to all teams, and most teams have dead spots in their batting order. The ideal is to at least be average in all 9 spots. The 2013 Sox were pretty much that except for 3b which they patched up at the right time when they brought up a young exciting prospect named Xander. The depth of the lineup has been thinner. It's not a criticism. I can't be the only one who sees the patchwork lineups they have put out recently and says, "oh vey", and wonders how long they can keep it up while he thanks his lucky stars that there are so many bad teams in the league. And kudos to them for smacking around a very good starter last night and hanging in their the night before. Long-term I hope the injuries heal up and the lineup gets deeper. I suspect it will. I do think catching and CF will remain below average, but seeing JBJ change his approach at the plate gives me a little bit of hope that he can hit .250/.300/.400 the rest of the way. And like I said a healthy Mookie and Pedroia and a maturing Devers would go a long way to lengthen the lineup to what it looked like when the season began. I do find it kind of ironic that the Sox dumped Hanley so they can activate Pedroia and as soon as they do it Mookie gets hurt and Pedroia winds up back on the shelf and the flexibility that Cora talked about on the bench winds up a tradeoff of Hanley for Travis, who I don't think of as being flexible - and yeah I knows he's been playing some LF at Pawtucket......in 2019 I will love the fact that Hanley's gone. Right now I wish we had that depth to lengthen out the lineup and I'm glad that Lind is in Pawtucket and can possibly help should Mookie need extended time. From a pure roster standpoint only, I wouldn't trade Hanley off the roster for Travis, but I could live with trading him off for Lind although I prefer the RH bat.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 4, 2018 10:18:42 GMT -5
Judge fWAR 2.8 Benintendi fWAR 2.1 If you look at baseball reference’s WAR, the largest difference between the two is 1 WAR for defense. I’m skeptical that Judge was been 1 WAR better defensively. I guess this is part of my issue: these numbers are supposed to be more scientific, but they actually strike me as less reliable. There have been articles on Rout having the best season ever, but... well, he’s not. Defensive stats take a lot longer to stabilize so WAR isn't nearly as meaningful at this point of the season.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 4, 2018 13:00:50 GMT -5
But those XM games? Many of the announcers come off like Bob & Ray but without the humor, and the programs are often filled with baseball psycho-babble, pure mindless conjecture. I'll take the ESPN broadcast any day. There's actually some useful information if you dig through the (endless) banter. A reference probably lost on almost everyone, but Bob and Ray, to my mind, are the funniest people who ever lived other than Steven Wright. That's why I put the link in there. For those who've never heard those guys, they might want to take a listen. Absolutely brilliant stuff.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 4, 2018 15:08:48 GMT -5
I don't know. Mendoza would be good at her job if she was- A) wearing a muzzle B) standing behind home plate with less clothes on She's the worst. I have, as you might guess, the highest possible bar for color commentators. They have to tell me things I don't know, and they can't miss the obvious.
The only complaint I had with the commentary tonight was too little talk about BABIP luck.
Menodoza is very, very good. She explained the story of Morton's transformation. She gave us little or no meaningless data tidbits while pointing out that Morton had given up 0 HR to LHB and Porcello 0 to RHB.
It's a little comical that you can listen to Jonny Gomes or, after a game, Jim Rice, and think that "she's the worst" rather than immensely better.
I'm sorry. I listened to Jessica Mendoza talk about how she was standing up trying to catch a baseball for 20 minutes. She is the worst. Gomes is also the worst. They are both as equally as bad.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,962
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 4, 2018 17:14:51 GMT -5
Vazquez last year: .348 / .378 / .467 (25 GS, 98 PA) start to June 1 .162 / .210 / .202 (26 GS, 105 PA) June 3 to July 25 .346 / .387 / .511 (36 GS, 142 PA) July 29 to end This is a dangerous hitting catcher who shares JBJ's problem of long slumps where he's shockingly, completely inept. This year's horrendous stretch hopefully ended at 146 PA. That HR was not a surprise if you realize that there is no predicting when a cold guy turns hot (or vice versa). Even with the slump, he finished with an OBP that would have been better than AL average for any batting order position than 2 through 4. He was a bit better than average for a 7 hitter and well above average for an 8 or 9 hitter. In the long run, he should be a bottom-of-the-order asset. Leon, of course, is also famously streaky. That's some serious gymnastics you're performing to tell me that Vazquez/Leon is not below average offensively - in 2018. So I guess according to what you're saying - Vazquez is having his 6/3 - 7/25 stretch early and he'll hit around .340 the rest of the way. I'm not sure I'm buying on that. Hope you're right and I'm wrong, and I'd be thrilled to tell you that's the case because that would close up a black hole they have at the bottom of the lineup. Either that or perhaps he won't be anywhere near as good offensively as he was last year when he was decent, pinging a lot of singles and not walking much or displaying much power, which when he was playing great defensively, was fine. I really wasn't clear what point I was making, was I? There's a huge difference between a guy who puts up subpar numbers because he has below-average bat-to-ball skills, below average pop, and below-average pitch recognition, while being consistent with his mechanics, and a guy who puts up the same subpar numbers who has very good to excellent bat-to-ball skills, solid pop, and OK to solid pitch recognition, but is woefully inconsistent with his mechanics and hence prone to long slumps. Vazquez last year went 123, 4, 138 wRC+ in his three stretches. His median performance was about 123. That's how he hit on an average day for Christian Vazquez.68, 46, 123, 119, 90, 58 but climbing. That's JBJ's career. Guys like this are insanely unpredictable, but they are guys you keep and work with. There are many stories of guys learning to shorten the slumps, e.g., Travis Shaw going from 98 wRC+ withe the Sox to 121 with the Brewers, and Carlos Pena going from XXX to XXX (I'll run the numbers later tonight). We don't know what CV will do the rest of the year, but quoting his wRC+ over any prior stretch of time misrepresents what he quite reasonably might do, and also completely changes your roster management.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,962
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 5, 2018 14:57:50 GMT -5
The Astros pitchers we faced had allowed a combined 30.3% Hard% (hereafter ".303 Hard". That's weighting each of their Hard allowed by the number of balls in play they allowed in the series). Right now that figure would rank 3rd in MLB, after the Phillies and Red Sox (the Astros are actually third now at .311.)
We scorched them to the tune of .431 (the actual figure). The worst figure in MLB right now is the Rangers .410. Again, weighting by how much each guy pitched, we added .012 to their season mark.
Morton, Verlander, Harris, Giles, and McHugh came in at a combined (weighted) .287. We managed .529 against them. The complete breakdown: Pitcher BIP Was Sox Now Cole 19 .336 .263 .327 McCull. 18 .327 .333 .328 Morton 17 .302 .647 .335 Veland. 15 .237 .400 .249 Harris 8 .216 .500 .254 Giles 6 .382 .667 .410 McHugh 4 .368 1.000 .410 Devens. 3 .280 .333 .283 Smith 2 .296 .000 .283 Sipp 1 .323 .000 .294 Peacock 1 .255 .000 .250 Rondon 1 .278 .000 .273
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