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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2020 23:09:25 GMT -5
As long as he keeps his average over .250 I could care less if he whiffs 44% of the time. Kid can hit 30hrs easy and he plays an above average first base. The best part he is cost controlled for a longtime. Well, that's the whole point. If he whiffs at a rate of 44% of the time, there's no way he's going to maintain enough BABIP to hit anywhere near .250. Honestly, I think he will figure out a way to cut his whiffs down to about 30% but of course his BABIP won't be as crazy good as it is now, so he'll probably hit .230 something, which isn't far off the league average these days. If he can walk enough, he should be an asset even hitting .230 something. Something else to consider - if Devers is as error prone at 3b next year as he has been this year....well maybe you consider him swapping places with Dalbec, with Dalbec moving to the hot corner. Hope it doesn't have to come to that. I think Devers can be a good 3b but it feels like he relapsed this season. I think Cora would have been on his butt and perhaps he doesn't make some of those errors.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2020 4:04:24 GMT -5
Seems inauspicious to me that the K rate is so high before we've even entered the league-makes-its-adjustments phase. An honest question: what reasons are there to think he'll fare better than Chavis when that happens? Chavis started out on almost as much of a homer tear as Dalbec, remember - he hit 6 in his first 14 games, compared to Dalbec's 6 in 11, and with only half of Dalbec's K rate - and there were all sorts of fun facts about his exit velocities and distances being among the best in the league. And the first four games after you posted that, he went 2/15, no XBH, 1 BB, 10 SO -- all on the road, in Florida.
Since then, in 28 PA, he's .348 / .482 / .696, with 7 SO, 4 BB and a HBP.
He's 1st out of 347 in MLB in HR/Contact, minimum 80 PA, with .200. The runner-up, the O's D.J Stewart, is .149. Next, and the top 3 full-time players are Acuna, Voit, and Sano at .140, .139, and .138.
He's not leading the bunch in K%. Zunino .440, Sano .440, Bobby D .425.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 27, 2020 5:26:31 GMT -5
As long as he keeps his average over .250 I could care less if he whiffs 44% of the time. Kid can hit 30hrs easy and he plays an above average first base. The best part he is cost controlled for a longtime. Well, that's the whole point. If he whiffs at a rate of 44% of the time, there's no way he's going to maintain enough BABIP to hit anywhere near .250. Honestly, I think he will figure out a way to cut his whiffs down to about 30% but of course his BABIP won't be as crazy good as it is now, so he'll probably hit .230 something, which isn't far off the league average these days. If he can walk enough, he should be an asset even hitting .230 something. Something else to consider - if Devers is as error prone at 3b next year as he has been this year....well maybe you consider him swapping places with Dalbec, with Dalbec moving to the hot corner. Hope it doesn't have to come to that. I think Devers can be a good 3b but it feels like he relapsed this season. I think Cora would have been on his butt and perhaps he doesn't make some of those errors. He has already played 22 games and his strike out% has stayed the same but his average has gone up so who knows what's possible with a full year of AB for him. I think him and devers swapping positions could be a real possibility.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2020 6:55:42 GMT -5
Well, that's the whole point. If he whiffs at a rate of 44% of the time, there's no way he's going to maintain enough BABIP to hit anywhere near .250. Honestly, I think he will figure out a way to cut his whiffs down to about 30% but of course his BABIP won't be as crazy good as it is now, so he'll probably hit .230 something, which isn't far off the league average these days. If he can walk enough, he should be an asset even hitting .230 something. Something else to consider - if Devers is as error prone at 3b next year as he has been this year....well maybe you consider him swapping places with Dalbec, with Dalbec moving to the hot corner. Hope it doesn't have to come to that. I think Devers can be a good 3b but it feels like he relapsed this season. I think Cora would have been on his butt and perhaps he doesn't make some of those errors. He has already played 22 games and his strike out% has stayed the same but his average has gone up so who knows what's possible with a full year of AB for him. I think him and devers swapping positions could be a real possibility. I know it's not good to count on prospects but nonetheless, moving Devers to first base give you two left handed hitting first basemen when Casas arrives.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 27, 2020 7:32:19 GMT -5
He has already played 22 games and his strike out% has stayed the same but his average has gone up so who knows what's possible with a full year of AB for him. I think him and devers swapping positions could be a real possibility. I know it's not good to count on prospects but nonetheless, moving Devers to first base give you two left handed hitting first basemen when Casas arrives. That is true, but by time Casas arrives the DH slot should be opened up by then. It's possible that Devers wouldn't exactly be a gold glover at 1b either and could wind up the DH. Makes it hard to pay huge long-term $ if you're looking at a DH who doesn't walk a ton. I know I'm not being clear here - I still think Devers can be and will be a beast with the bat, and I'm not saying the Sox shouldn't try to extend him long-term. I am saying there are some potential red flags there. Honestly, I think it is within Devers to be a solid defensive 3b, and as he matures, it's possible that the plate discipline matures as well so that he's walking 60 - 80 times per year rather 40 times per year so the reliance on him having a strong OBP doesn't always rest on his strong hit tool. But if those things don't happen, then you have a long-term DH who could wind up with a low OBP if his hit tool isn't as sharp down the road. Well, despite the potential red flags I'm pointing out, I'd say the odds are better that Devers matures and is a beast with the bat, even if it's as a DH down the road - and it doesn't have to be - than it is of Dalbec continuing to whiff at the pace he's at and maintaining a respectable batting average. Most likely he improves his K rate, but the ability to get hits when not whiffing won't possibly be able to stay anywhere near as high as it's now. At the end of the day, I can see Dalbec settling into a .235 hitter with walks and 35 - 40 homers per year, which is still one heckuva player. I think Casas will be what we dream he is at 1b down the road, and it's not hard to imagine Devers DHing and Dalbec at 3b and us wondering what to do some day when Blaze Jordan starts knocking on the door.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2020 7:37:03 GMT -5
I know it's not good to count on prospects but nonetheless, moving Devers to first base give you two left handed hitting first basemen when Casas arrives. That is true, but by time Casas arrives the DH slot should be opened up by then. It's possible that Devers wouldn't exactly be a gold glover at 1b either and could wind up the DH. Makes it hard to pay huge long-term $ if you're looking at a DH who doesn't walk a ton. I know I'm not being clear here - I still think Devers can be and will be a beast with the bat, and I'm not saying the Sox shouldn't try to extend him long-term. I am saying there are some potential red flags there. Honestly, I think it is within Devers to be a solid defensive 3b, and as he matures, it's possible that the plate discipline matures as well so that he's walking 60 - 80 times per year rather 40 times per year so the reliance on him having a strong OBP doesn't always rest on his strong hit tool. But if those things don't happen, then you have a long-term DH who could wind up with a low OBP if his hit tool isn't as sharp down the road. Well, despite the potential red flags I'm pointing out, I'd say the odds are better that Devers matures and is a beast with the bat, even if it's as a DH down the road - and it doesn't have to be - than it is of Dalbec continuing to whiff at the pace he's at and maintaining a respectable batting average. Most likely he improves his K rate, but the ability to get hits when not whiffing won't possibly be able to stay anywhere near as high as it's now. At the end of the day, I can see Dalbec settling into a .235 hitter with walks and 35 - 40 homers per year, which is still one heckuva player. I think Casas will be what we dream he is at 1b down the road, and it's not hard to imagine Devers DHing and Dalbec at 3b and us wondering what to do some day when Blaze Jordan starts knocking on the door. I think Casas will be here before you think Casas will be here. I think April 16, 2022 at the latest, trade deadline 2021 at the earliest. Meteoric, yes, unheard of, hardly, look around.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 27, 2020 7:43:54 GMT -5
That is true, but by time Casas arrives the DH slot should be opened up by then. It's possible that Devers wouldn't exactly be a gold glover at 1b either and could wind up the DH. Makes it hard to pay huge long-term $ if you're looking at a DH who doesn't walk a ton. I know I'm not being clear here - I still think Devers can be and will be a beast with the bat, and I'm not saying the Sox shouldn't try to extend him long-term. I am saying there are some potential red flags there. Honestly, I think it is within Devers to be a solid defensive 3b, and as he matures, it's possible that the plate discipline matures as well so that he's walking 60 - 80 times per year rather 40 times per year so the reliance on him having a strong OBP doesn't always rest on his strong hit tool. But if those things don't happen, then you have a long-term DH who could wind up with a low OBP if his hit tool isn't as sharp down the road. Well, despite the potential red flags I'm pointing out, I'd say the odds are better that Devers matures and is a beast with the bat, even if it's as a DH down the road - and it doesn't have to be - than it is of Dalbec continuing to whiff at the pace he's at and maintaining a respectable batting average. Most likely he improves his K rate, but the ability to get hits when not whiffing won't possibly be able to stay anywhere near as high as it's now. At the end of the day, I can see Dalbec settling into a .235 hitter with walks and 35 - 40 homers per year, which is still one heckuva player. I think Casas will be what we dream he is at 1b down the road, and it's not hard to imagine Devers DHing and Dalbec at 3b and us wondering what to do some day when Blaze Jordan starts knocking on the door. I think Casas will be here before you think Casas will be here. I think April 16, 2022 at the latest, trade deadline 2021 at the earliest. Meteoric, yes, unheard of, hardly, look around. Perhaps you're right, but the kid hasn't even faced any AA pitching yet. Maybe he does next year, destroys them, and is ready as quickly as you think so, and if it is Apr 16, 2022, then that can work with the timeline I suggested. We know JDM remains in 2021. If he has a good year in 2021, he probably opts out, opening up a slot for 2022. If he has a bad year in 2021, opts in, and struggles again after two bad/mediocre seasons, I'm sure he'll be swept aside for Casas as the Sox count down the days to the end of his contract if Casas is indeed ready. The problem is that it's really hard to judge who's ready based on intersquad games. Every team is facing that issue so it's not unique to the Red Sox. I mean, can you say with good certainty that Downs is ready at this point? The Sox can use a 2b in 2021. Or how about Groome? Is he ready sooner than later? He's hardly faced anybody over his professional career. It's hard for me to answer that based on this season.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2020 8:05:37 GMT -5
I think Casas will be here before you think Casas will be here. I think April 16, 2022 at the latest, trade deadline 2021 at the earliest. Meteoric, yes, unheard of, hardly, look around. Perhaps you're right, but the kid hasn't even faced any AA pitching yet. Maybe he does next year, destroys them, and is ready as quickly as you think so, and if it is Apr 16, 2022, then that can work with the timeline I suggested. We know JDM remains in 2021. If he has a good year in 2021, he probably opts out, opening up a slot for 2022. If he has a bad year in 2021, opts in, and struggles again after two bad/mediocre seasons, I'm sure he'll be swept aside for Casas as the Sox count down the days to the end of his contract if Casas is indeed ready. The problem is that it's really hard to judge who's ready based on intersquad games. Every team is facing that issue so it's not unique to the Red Sox. I mean, can you say with good certainty that Downs is ready at this point? The Sox can use a 2b in 2021. Or how about Groome? Is he ready sooner than later? He's hardly faced anybody over his professional career. It's hard for me to answer that based on this season. I don't think either Downs, Seabold or Groome will be here in 2021. Mata maybe. Duran April 16. That doesn't mean I think less of them, I just don't think they are ready yet. But those are views and as they say, views are like opinions, everybody has one.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2020 8:23:54 GMT -5
I also think there's no way Houck isn't in the rotation and personally I doubt if Pivetta will be. Again, just an opinion.
Also with all the top free agents next year and what's likely to happen to baseball financially, I doubt if JDM opts out.
ADD: If JDM has a decent year, the Sox have a pleasant problem to deal with. That would be a good thing.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 27, 2020 8:35:30 GMT -5
I also think there's no way Houck isn't in the rotation and personally I doubt if Pivetta will be. Again, just an opinion. Also with all the top free agents next year and what's likely to happen to baseball financially, I doubt if JDM opts out. I agree about jdm I think we find out this off season how many teams have been effected by the revenue crunch. I am going to say it is the majority. We might see the free agent numbers come down. If that's the case jd is not going anywhere. Pivetta, have not seen enough of him to judge where he lands. As well after the statement this season is unacceptable by ownership I wonder if the means there spending big to turn the ship fast.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2020 8:39:47 GMT -5
I also think there's no way Houck isn't in the rotation and personally I doubt if Pivetta will be. Again, just an opinion. Also with all the top free agents next year and what's likely to happen to baseball financially, I doubt if JDM opts out. I agree about jdm I think we find out this off season how many teams have been effected by the revenue crunch. I am going to say it is the majority. We might see the free agent numbers come down. If that's the case jd is not going anywhere. Pivetta, have not seen enough of him to judge where he lands. As well after the statement this season is unacceptable by ownership I wonder if the means there spending big to turn the ship fast. I'll bet they don't go over the tax threshold. I think they will use what money they have to their advantage in the trade market. Cohen's approval by MLB owners will change the entire off-season.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2020 12:59:43 GMT -5
Remember when Mookie Betts was blocked, and we agonized over either trading him, or moving him to a position where he'd lose value?
Well, some guys are so good that it's smarter to move them to the easier position than trade them to a team that could make full use of their defensive value. Kevin Youkilis played most of his career being a bit less valuable than he might have been. Any regrets?
I was figuring we'd hope that Dalbec had a nice 2021, and we'd deal him to a team that needed a 3B to make room for Casas.
But it would be much, much smarter to trade the last year of JDM's contract to make room. Find out how good Casas actually is.
Furthermore, DHing is actually hard, just like pinch-hitting is. JDM's career number are quite a bit better in the OF than at DH, year after year. Papi was somewhat of a freak in this regard.
If either Dalbec or Casas proves to be able to really hit in the DH role, you won't lose that much defensive value. And you can start exploring that next year with Dalbec and then really check it out in 2022.
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Post by manfred on Sept 27, 2020 14:06:49 GMT -5
Remember when Mookie Betts was blocked, and we agonized over either trading him, or moving him to a position where he'd lose value?
Well, some guys are so good that it's smarter to move them to the easier position than trade them to a team that could make full use of their defensive value. Kevin Youkilis played most of his career being a bit less valuable than he might have been. Any regrets?
I was figuring we'd hope that Dalbec had a nice 2021, and we'd deal him to a team that needed a 3B to make room for Casas.
But it would be much, much smarter to trade the last year of JDM's contract to make room. Find out how good Casas actually is.
Furthermore, DHing is actually hard, just like pinch-hitting is. JDM's career number are quite a bit better in the OF than at DH, year after year. Papi was somewhat of a freak in this regard.
If either Dalbec or Casas proves to be able to really hit in the DH role, you won't lose that much defensive value. And you can start exploring that next year with Dalbec and then really check it out in 2022.
I’m all for this, but what do you think JDM brings back? (Not snarky... actual question... I was hoping they’d have a chance to trade him at the deadline, so you’re preaching to the choir.... but I have no clue what the market is).
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Sept 27, 2020 14:25:25 GMT -5
Remember when Mookie Betts was blocked, and we agonized over either trading him, or moving him to a position where he'd lose value? Well, some guys are so good that it's smarter to move them to the easier position than trade them to a team that could make full use of their defensive value. Kevin Youkilis played most of his career being a bit less valuable than he might have been. Any regrets?
I was figuring we'd hope that Dalbec had a nice 2021, and we'd deal him to a team that needed a 3B to make room for Casas. But it would be much, much smarter to trade the last year of JDM's contract to make room. Find out how good Casas actually is. Furthermore, DHing is actually hard, just like pinch-hitting is. JDM's career number are quite a bit better in the OF than at DH, year after year. Papi was somewhat of a freak in this regard. If either Dalbec or Casas proves to be able to really hit in the DH role, you won't lose that much defensive value. And you can start exploring that next year with Dalbec and then really check it out in 2022.
I’m all for this, but what do you think JDM brings back? (Not snarky... actual question... I was hoping they’d have a chance to trade him at the deadline, so you’re preaching to the choir.... but I have no clue what the market is). I think the answer to that question isn't known till the deadline next year. Right now he's got negative value with that contract and the revenue squeeze from COVID. If he returns to form next year for half the year, and the Sox are willing to kick in some money to facilitate a trade, I have no doubt Chaim would find some hidden gem for him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 27, 2020 17:07:52 GMT -5
Entering today, Dalbec had cut his K rate to 25% in his last 7 games. He's also hitting well during that time (.348/.464/.696, 2 HR), but the strikeouts thing is the more important thing for me.
If he cuts the K rate to even 35%, I would be very happy. If he cuts it to 25% that's going to more than offsent when his babip normalizes (which for him will likely be higher than the average hitter).
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Sept 27, 2020 17:33:18 GMT -5
Remember that when Dalbec got promoted to Portland, he struck out 37% of the time in his first taste of AA pitching. The next year he struck out 25% of the time. In his last few games his at bats are way more crispier and it's obvious that he's feeling way more confident in the batter box. I think he'll cut his k% significantly next year.
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 27, 2020 18:07:48 GMT -5
Remember that when Dalbec got promoted to Portland, he struck out 37% of the time in his first taste of AA pitching. The next year he struck out 25% of the time. In his last few games his at bats are way more crispier and it's obvious that he's feeling way more confident in the batter box. I think he'll cut his k% significantly next year. this is why he's a hard guy to gauge. There's a lot to dream on, and things to be very concerned about. He did look like a more confident player as he got more and more reps, his all-fields power is silly, and he seems to have good aptitude for hitting and making adjustments. I'm cautiously optimistic, and hope Bloom is too.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 29, 2020 16:37:14 GMT -5
Bobby Dalbec fanned 30 times in his first 59 PA. That's kind of terrifying. That he managed to slug .593 anyway is completely ridiculous. He only made contact 24 times, and had 6 singles, a double, and 6 homers.
After that he fanned just 9 times in 33 PA. If you adjust for the K rate against RHB of the pitchers he faced in each of these two phases, it's 10 strikeouts, a .303 rate. What's Aaron Judge after his cup of coffee in 2016? .307. (Not really a good comp, as their minor league careers were totally different. Just a data point for a big guy with huge power.)
If you had a Strat-o-matic card that had him fanning 40 times per 92 PA, what would be the odds against getting this split? 17 to 1. But that's also the odds against him starting the second way and ending the first, which is actually more likely to happen, given that pitchers would be getting a book on him. So this really seems like a genuine improvement.
Now, let's break this down by opponent's K rate vs. RHB -- the tough guys versus others.
In the terrifying yet awesome first phase, he faced pitchers with a .275 K rate or better 15 times, and he fanned in 11 of them. That's a .733 rate. In the better phase, the pitchers were collectively just as tough (.307 vs. .311 earlier), and it was 3 K in 7 PA. That's not statistically significant (p = .34). And it's 1 more strikeout than an average hitter would have had.
In the first phase, he fanned 19 of 44 times (.432) against non-elite K rate guys. In the second phase, it was 6 of 26 times, 7 after you adjust for their quality, and that's .269. That has a 1 in 6 chance at being random.
Now, in both phases, not only was their no correlation between Dalbec's propensity to fan against these non-elite pitcher and their K rates, there was actually a meaningless trend towards an inverse correlation. I have no idea whether all hitters do this! But it demonstrates that the two groups of pitchers can be separated. What are the odds of improving by that much in both groups? 16 to 1.
Conclusion 1: it seems likely that guys with elite K rate against RHB will always give him problems, but that's a trait a lot of sluggers have.
Conclusion 2: When you combine his career pattern of improving his K rate with what we saw this year, I think there's genuine cause for optimism that he can keep the swing-and-miss to a reasonable level. His xBA in the second phase was .271 (Judge is .278 since 2017), so I think that sustaining a .250 BA going forward is a solid conservative projection. I think the "he could still end up as a .220 hitter" that's in all of his scouting reports has become the sort of downside that any hitter has (witness Benni's regression) rather than a serious concern.
There's one more major cause for optimism, I think. After that insane start he went 2/15 with 10 K, 1 BB in 4 games, ending with a 4 K game against the Marlins. He took one day off and then had what I'm calling the second phase. That's being the anti-JBJ. I think that the ability to fix your mechanics when they're off, and thus avoid long slumps, is a mental tool, and a big part of long-term hitting success. Tiny data point here, but I think you'll agree that a lot of hitters would have continued that slide for the next 8 games. Instead, he looked really good.
The more for real that was, the closer he can approach .270 as a sustainable BA. I'd guess .260.
A final thought: the great unknown, and the one that determines his future here, is his ability to DH. That's a skill. If he suffers the ordinary negative split in the DH role, that's a guy who is much more valuable as someone else's 3B. I mean, hugely so. If he can put up a David Ortiz split at DH (or even a good one), that's a great guy to keep, given his ability to play 3B and 1B.
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Post by patford on Nov 29, 2020 21:14:38 GMT -5
Is there any formula or model which balances BA and HR ? What I mean is at what point does a batter hitting 30, 40, 50 HR become a liability due to their BA ? For example in 1982 Dave Kingman hit 37 HR and had 99 RBI while batting .204. How would that line be rated using advanced statistics ? If some player, not to say Dalbec, hit 60 HR and his BA was .180 the 60 HR would make a team want to play him all the time...no ?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 29, 2020 21:24:42 GMT -5
Is there any formula or model which balances BA and HR ? What I mean is at what point does a batter hitting 30, 40, 50 HR become a liability due to their BA ? For example in 1982 Dave Kingman hit 37 HR and had 99 RBI while batting .204. How would that line be rated using advanced statistics ? If some player, not to say Dalbec, hit 60 HR and his BA was .180 the 60 HR would make a team want to play him all the time...no ? Isn't that essentially what OPS is all about ?
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Post by patford on Dec 1, 2020 21:08:26 GMT -5
Is there any formula or model which balances BA and HR ? What I mean is at what point does a batter hitting 30, 40, 50 HR become a liability due to their BA ? For example in 1982 Dave Kingman hit 37 HR and had 99 RBI while batting .204. How would that line be rated using advanced statistics ? If some player, not to say Dalbec, hit 60 HR and his BA was .180 the 60 HR would make a team want to play him all the time...no ? Isn't that essentially what OPS is all about ? What I mean is, is there a statistical analysis which determines at what levels BA weighted against power is either worth it, or not worth it? At least in a broad sense. Obviously there would be teams making individual decisions. Take the Kingman example I gave. Is a .200 BA with 37 HR valuable ? Or is that hurting the team ? I'm asking only about hitting. I can imagine situations (say a gold glove fielder at 2B) where 37 HR with a .200 BA would easily fly.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Dec 1, 2020 22:11:46 GMT -5
Isn't that essentially what OPS is all about ? What I mean is, is there a statistical analysis which determines at what levels BA weighted against power is either worth it, or not worth it? At least in a broad sense. Obviously there would be teams making individual decisions. Take the Kingman example I gave. Is a .200 BA with 37 HR valuable ? Or is that hurting the team ? I'm asking only about hitting. I can imagine situations (say a gold glove fielder at 2B) where 37 HR with a .200 BA would easily fly. You're on the right track with this question, but you really can't figure out a hitter's value with just batting average and home runs. Kingman only had 9 doubles in 1982, which meant that he didn't really provide as much power as the 37 home runs would suggest. He had a decent walk rate, which meant he got on base slightly more than his putrid batting average would suggest.
WRC+, which might be the best single stat we have for measuring a batter's value, says Kingman was 97% as good as a league average hitter in 1982, so almost exactly average (apparently you picked a great example of good power and poor on base skills cancelling each other out). But another hitter with 37 home runs and a .200 batting average could be much more or less valuable than Kingman depending on how much they walked and how many other extra base hits they got.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 2, 2020 10:05:54 GMT -5
Yeah, and an easy way to eyeball it is with the full slash line of average, on-base percentage, and slugging. It's very crude, but it's a way you can do it with basic stats.
It's part of the appeal of OPS, although OPS is a pretty terrible stat in that it adds together two numbers not meant to be added together and weighs OBP and SLG equally when the former is (I'm sure someone will correct me if I have this wrong) about 3x as important for scoring runs.
Put it this way: both Mike Trout and Fernando Tatis Jr. hit 17 HR this year, and their averages were .281 and .277, respectively. Both were very good. Trout's wRC+ was 164 to Tatis' 149 though, and that's because Trout's OBP and SLG were .390 and .603 compared to Tatis' .366 and .571. Maybe not the best example given both were excellent hitters this year, but my point is that if you looked only at HR and average, you'd have thought they were equally valuable, and they were not - based on wRC+, Trout was 15% better than league average than Tatis was.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 2, 2020 10:59:16 GMT -5
Yeah, and an easy way to eyeball it is with the full slash line of average, on-base percentage, and slugging. It's very crude, but it's a way you can do it with basic stats. It's part of the appeal of OPS, although OPS is a pretty terrible stat in that it adds together two numbers not meant to be added together and weighs OBP and SLG equally when the former is (I'm sure someone will correct me if I have this wrong) about 3x as important for scoring runs. Put it this way: both Mike Trout and Fernando Tatis Jr. hit 17 HR this year, and their averages were .281 and .277, respectively. Both were very good. Trout's wRC+ was 164 to Tatis' 149 though, and that's because Trout's OBP and SLG were .390 and .603 compared to Tatis' .366 and .571. Maybe not the best example given both were excellent hitters this year, but my point is that if you looked only at HR and average, you'd have thought they were equally valuable, and they were not - based on wRC+, Trout was 15% better than league average than Tatis was. I remember reading in an old Bill James Baseball Abstract - those he was totally involved - that he didn't like the OPS formula, that he felt the basic flaw of it was adding OBP plus SA rather than multiplying them. He felt that a team with a .500 SA and .300 OBP wouldn't fare as well as a team with a .400 SA and .400 OBP even though they both add up to .800. If you multiply it then you get a higher figure with the latter scenario. I know this is all archaic stuff, but I always remembered reading that and thinking along those lines as well. Patford mentioned Dave Kingman. Kong could hit HRs, but he wasn't overly selective. Three true outcome guys can survive low BAs and be useful, although there are limits to that. Having a crappy BA does harm the SA. Aesthetically I agree with JohnSilver. It does not make the game more pleasing to sit back and wait on a three true outcome event. Very little action that way, so while it may be more effective, it doesn't necessarily make the game more fun to watch. I think Theo Epstein made an interesting point about that. He mentioned that it was great being ahead of the curve on knowing that guys like low BA, but high OBP who have power are more effective than the Jerry Remy type hitters of yesteryear, but it created a product that's not as entertaining to watch. One of the understated things I loved about the 2018 Red Sox was their ability to run and/or take the extra base. I know I can't be the only one who remembers that epic 8 run inning in the 4th inning of the 1st game of that showdown 4 game series at Fenway where Pearce blasted 3 HRs. The 4th inning stood out because JBJ scored on a play at the plate that he had no business scoring on, Benintendi stole the pitcher (Jonathan Holder) blind, swiping 2nd while he had no idea Beni was going and that messed him up so bad, he hung a meatball to Pearce who hit the go-ahead HR. Then later adding insult to injury, Kinsler stole 2nd and then came home on a single. Kinsler also made two highlight reel plays in the 7th. The beauty of that inning was astounding. Now THAT was baseball. The Red Sox showed the Yankees they had an extra gear that the Bombers (267 HRs) didn't have. That's the kind of baseball I like to watch. Multi-faceted baseball.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 4, 2021 8:25:16 GMT -5
So, since 2003 (post-steroid era), there have been 57 players who fit this set of criteria:
1) MLB debut season, but retained rookie status (< 130 PA).
2) Fanned 50% more (or worse) than MLB average for position players. Dalbec was 80% worse (hereafter 180).
3) Age 24 to 26. Younger guys who debut and fan a lot are regarded as much less problematical.
4) 50 PA minimum.
So let's narrow this down to be manageable.
5) Either an OPS+ of 90 or better, or at some point a top 100 prospect. IOW, some reason to think they might be good despite the high K rate.
That eliminated all but 24. As you might expect, none of the 33 guys bumped off the list amounted to anything.
4b) Minimum 70 PA. The 24 guys really divide cleanly into two groups. There are 11 guys with 68 PA or less; 9 of them had really good seasons (5 great) but did nothing subsequently, while 2 were ex-prospects. The other 13 guys had 78 or more PA and had just 3 great seasons and a much more normal distribution
Only two of the 13 remaining players were BA top 100 prospects when they made their debut. (Four others had been top 100 prospects previously in their milb careers.)
One of them had a 213 SO+, the 4th worst figure of the original 57*. He hit .179 / .263 / .345 and that got him dropped from 76 to 90 as a prospect. He did improve his K rate significantly along the way.
The other had a 180 SO+ and hit .263 / .369 / .600, which got him dropped from 75 to off the list.
WTF? He also improved his K rate a lot mid-way. I'm thinking that maybe no one's considering that the MLB K rate went up 13.3% since Judge debuted, and 4.6% just from 2019 to 2020.
And here's a quick simple fact: 8 of these guys have had time to establish their quality level, and only two became stars.
One was the only guy who was a Top 100 prospect at the time, and that's Judge of course. Dalbec shares that trait.
The other is one of the two guys who had great seasons, a trait Dalbec also shares. Chris Dickerson in 2008 had a 164 wRC+ at age 26, with a 168 SO+, and spent 7 years as a 4th OFer and totaled 3.9 fWAR.
But Jason Bay at age 24 had a 151 wRC+ in 2003, also with a 168 SO+, and became a top 100 prospect after that season. He had a catastrophic decline after he left us after his age 31 season, but had seasons of 5.7, 5.2, and (with us) 4.6 before that. He was a very unusual hitter, with cold zones on all four sides of the strike zone, but with an unreal ability to kill mistakes down the middle. I thought he would have either an unusually long career or an unusually short one, because that just sounded like a skill that you'd either lose early or keep for a long time.
The thing is, Bay's K rate actually went up as the season went along. Dickerson's was flat.
What I'll do later today is see if any of the other 5 guys who we have a further career to look at had a big improvement in their K rate. If no one did, you have to like the fact that Dalbec did what Judge did, and had a great season like Bay while being younger than 26.
The four five guys are, BTW, Ben Johnson (109 OPS+ for the Padres in '05), Tyler Austin (99 for the MFY's in 2016, and the #77 prospect three years previously), Richie Shaffer (95 for the Rays in '15), Drew Robinson (91 for the Rangers in '17) and Brent Lillibridge (51 for the Braves in '08, but the #93 prospect the previous year). Kevin Cron, Robel Garcia, and Zack Collins qualified in 2019. The last guy is Dernell Stenson.
*(Aramis Garcia, 218 in 2018; John Mayberry Jr., 217 in 2009; Monte Harrison 216 this year).
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