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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 22, 2021 5:05:50 GMT -5
Eric. Thank you for all that work. I feel like we may have gotten a fly on the wall view approximating FO discussions of this kid. Granularific.
It might explain why Marwin likely replaced MM or the Mayor as LHB at 1B. Contingency might explain why Casas appears to be getting pushed a little; or the potential importance of Ockimey and Chavis.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 22, 2021 7:46:09 GMT -5
Alex S. has had Dalbec much higher than he is here because he's convinced he has makeup that results in continuous adjustments and improvements. The more you look at the data, the more you see that. Do you have a link saying that or is this conjecture stated as fact again? (And it's very possible it's in our conversation with him on the pod and I'm not remembering.) FWIW, I don't know this to be true but it's very possible he only has Dalbec third because BA ranks Dalbec in his Top 100 and he therefore has to. I do know that the individual team lists need to be consistent with the top 100 now (recall many years ago - I think mid-aughts? - that they didn't do that and it was very weird one year when the Sox had 5 top 100 guys who were in a different order in their team list, I think even with a sixth guy ranked ahead of 2 or 3 of the top 100 guys). Now, Speier could certainly agree with having Dalbec third, but he has no choice in the matter.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 22, 2021 17:15:48 GMT -5
Alex S. has had Dalbec much higher than he is here because he's convinced he has makeup that results in continuous adjustments and improvements. The more you look at the data, the more you see that. Do you have a link saying that or is this conjecture stated as fact again? (And it's very possible it's in our conversation with him on the pod and I'm not remembering.) FWIW, I don't know this to be true but it's very possible he only has Dalbec third because BA ranks Dalbec in his Top 100 and he therefore has to. I do know that the individual team lists need to be consistent with the top 100 now (recall many years ago - I think mid-aughts? - that they didn't do that and it was very weird one year when the Sox had 5 top 100 guys who were in a different order in their team list, I think even with a sixth guy ranked ahead of 2 or 3 of the top 100 guys). Now, Speier could certainly agree with having Dalbec third, but he has no choice in the matter. I believe I'm combining things Alex has written that imply this, with another report (Gammons?) that explicitly talked about it. As someone who puts a high value on makeup (as the Sox did and presumably still do), I remember reading that and upping him significantly in my pwn mental prospect rankings. Alex did do a whole article in the Globe about Dalbec reading The Science of Hitting where he mentions his "cerebral offensive approach," after citing his "hitting intellect" when he ranked him #1 in 2019. And when he ranked him #2 last year, he wrote "while moving up the ladder ... he's manged to cut his strikeout rate without compromising power."
Actually, I think the MA individual team rankings can still be in conflict with the top 100. That Alex loves Dalbec is evident from having him 1, 2, 3 the last 3 years when this site has had him at 4, 5 (omitting Downs), 6. That's his call and not BA's, I believe.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 22, 2021 17:56:07 GMT -5
I know for a fact that the BA rankings must jibe with the top 100 now. Trust me. Read into that as you will.
Author also doesn't necessarily have final control over the list that makes the website either.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 22, 2021 19:25:43 GMT -5
I know for a fact that the BA rankings must jibe with the top 100 now. Trust me. Read into that as you will. Author also doesn't necessarily have final control over the list that makes the website either. Yes, note Alex's careful choice of words: "I assembled the rankings." Not "I did the rankings"
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Feb 22, 2021 20:29:31 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 22, 2021 22:55:41 GMT -5
Eric. Thank you for all that work. I feel like we may have gotten a fly on the wall view approximating FO discussions of this kid. Granularific. It might explain why Marwin likely replaced MM or the Mayor as LHB at 1B. Contingency might explain why Casas appears to be getting pushed a little; or the potential importance of Ockimey and Chavis. Yes, if Dalbec is indeed better than people expect, there's less of a need for a plus platoon bat on the bench. And if he does need to be platooned by someone with a better bat than Marwin, Ockimey is a candidate.
---
I now have broken down his 2019 season in Portland into 9 separate chunks, and it's kind of insane. The last 8 of them average 10 games in length and his relative Strike zone command (W/KW+, percentage of walks and strikeouts that are the former, expressed as a ratio to league) goes 125, 0, 241, 156, 31, 154, 264, 79. And the sick thing is that in only once was I even looking at walks when discovering the chunks. His K + BB total stayed fairly constant.
How often do you see a guy hit .161 / .422 / .194 over 11 games? How often is it a guy who hit .286 / .305 / .657 over 8 games, exactly 6 weeks earlier? An Iso of .371 and then an IsoD of .261. If someone could do that simultaneously, he could hit .190 and be a lineup force!
Tonight I'm going to do his AAA stint, and then put up all the numbers sometimes in the next few days.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 22, 2021 23:01:35 GMT -5
I know for a fact that the BA rankings must jibe with the top 100 now. Trust me. Read into that as you will. Author also doesn't necessarily have final control over the list that makes the website either. You know what my error indicates? That the [whatever] years that have passed since I last noticed the two sets of ratings being out of whack felt like 2. Maybe 3 at tops. Gettin' old ...
(I keep on getting monthly statements in the mail and saying "what, this just came!" But I trust that's COVID.)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 23, 2021 11:05:49 GMT -5
I know for a fact that the BA rankings must jibe with the top 100 now. Trust me. Read into that as you will. Author also doesn't necessarily have final control over the list that makes the website either. You know what my error indicates? That the [whatever] years that have passed since I last noticed the two sets of ratings being out of whack felt like 2. Maybe 3 at tops. Gettin' old ... (I keep on getting monthly statements in the mail and saying "what, this just came!" But I trust that's COVID.)
Using Baseball Cube, turns out it's more pervasive and recent than I thought. (Although, just to clarify, I didn't mean to imply it'd always been this way - I knew it was relatively recent that they forced it, but just forgot how recently they'd had the two actually be out-of-whack!) In 2007 they flipped Bard and Bowden (81 and 83 on top 100, 4 and 3 on team list). In 2008 they flipped Bowden and Kalish (94 and 96 vs. 7 and 6). In 2009, Bard was 98 and 4th on the list, and no. 3 Hagadone was unranked. The really bad year that I was sort of remembering, I think, was 2011. Top 5 with Top 100 rank: 1. Casey Kelly (NR) 2. Jose Iglesias (52) 3. Anthony Rizzo (NR) 4. Anthony Ranaudo (67) 5. Drake Britton (97) Then there was this wonkiness in 2014: 1 Xander Bogaerts 2 2 Henry Owens 40 3 Jackie Bradley 50 - 4 Allen Webster 88 5 Blake Swihart 73 6 Garin Cecchini 74 7 Mookie Betts 75 8 Brandon Workman --- 9 Matt Barnes --- 10 Trey Ball 89 2015: 1 Blake Swihart 17 2 Henry Owens 44 3 Rusney Castillo 21 4 Eduardo Rodriguez 59 5 Brian Johnson 82 6 Rafael Devers 99 7 Manuel Margot 72 2016 had, in order of Red Sox list, Moncada at 3, Devers at 18, Benintendi at 15, Espinoza at 19. Since then, though, I think they force the team list to jibe with the top 100.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 23, 2021 11:15:21 GMT -5
You know what my error indicates? That the [whatever] years that have passed since I last noticed the two sets of ratings being out of whack felt like 2. Maybe 3 at tops. Gettin' old ... (I keep on getting monthly statements in the mail and saying "what, this just came!" But I trust that's COVID.)
Using Baseball Cube, turns out it's more pervasive and recent than I thought. (Although, just to clarify, I didn't mean to imply it'd always been this way - I knew it was relatively recent that they forced it, but just forgot how recently they'd had the two actually be out-of-whack!) In 2007 they flipped Bard and Bowden (81 and 83 on top 100, 4 and 3 on team list). In 2008 they flipped Bowden and Kalish (94 and 96 vs. 7 and 6). In 2009, Bard was 98 and 4th on the list, and no. 3 Hagadone was unranked. The really bad year that I was sort of remembering, I think, was 2011. Top 5 with Top 100 rank: 1. Casey Kelly (NR) 2. Jose Iglesias (52) 3. Anthony Rizzo (NR) 4. Anthony Ranaudo (67) 5. Drake Britton (97) Then there was this wonkiness in 2014: 1 Xander Bogaerts 2 2 Henry Owens 40 3 Jackie Bradley 50 - 4 Allen Webster 88 5 Blake Swihart 73 6 Garin Cecchini 74 7 Mookie Betts 75 8 Brandon Workman --- 9 Matt Barnes --- 10 Trey Ball 89 2015: 1 Blake Swihart 17 2 Henry Owens 44 3 Rusney Castillo 21 4 Eduardo Rodriguez 59 5 Brian Johnson 82 6 Rafael Devers 99 7 Manuel Margot 72 2016 had, in order of Red Sox list, Moncada at 3, Devers at 18, Benintendi at 15, Espinoza at 19. Since then, though, I think they force the team list to jibe with the top 100. My take away from this: Trey Ball was once a top-100 prospect. That probably should be made into a sticker that gets pasted to every Red Sox prospect list forever and ever, amen.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 23, 2021 11:22:18 GMT -5
You know what my error indicates? That the [whatever] years that have passed since I last noticed the two sets of ratings being out of whack felt like 2. Maybe 3 at tops. Gettin' old ... (I keep on getting monthly statements in the mail and saying "what, this just came!" But I trust that's COVID.)
Using Baseball Cube, turns out it's more pervasive and recent than I thought. (Although, just to clarify, I didn't mean to imply it'd always been this way - I knew it was relatively recent that they forced it, but just forgot how recently they'd had the two actually be out-of-whack!) In 2007 they flipped Bard and Bowden (81 and 83 on top 100, 4 and 3 on team list). In 2008 they flipped Bowden and Kalish (94 and 96 vs. 7 and 6). In 2009, Bard was 98 and 4th on the list, and no. 3 Hagadone was unranked. The really bad year that I was sort of remembering, I think, was 2011. Top 5 with Top 100 rank: 1. Casey Kelly (NR) 2. Jose Iglesias (52) 3. Anthony Rizzo (NR) 4. Anthony Ranaudo (67) 5. Drake Britton (97) Then there was this wonkiness in 2014: 1 Xander Bogaerts 2 2 Henry Owens 40 3 Jackie Bradley 50 - 4 Allen Webster 88 5 Blake Swihart 73 6 Garin Cecchini 74 7 Mookie Betts 75 8 Brandon Workman --- 9 Matt Barnes --- 10 Trey Ball 89 2015: 1 Blake Swihart 17 2 Henry Owens 44 3 Rusney Castillo 21 4 Eduardo Rodriguez 59 5 Brian Johnson 82 6 Rafael Devers 99 7 Manuel Margot 72 2016 had, in order of Red Sox list, Moncada at 3, Devers at 18, Benintendi at 15, Espinoza at 19. Since then, though, I think they force the team list to jibe with the top 100. It looks like the BA rankings were more accurate than the top 100 (in a predictive sense) in each of those years.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 28, 2021 0:22:27 GMT -5
I did a cuff calculation to get an estimate on the probability of Dalbec getting his K rate below 30% this season. I used his past record at different levels, and last year's ML crop of sub 30%ers, to ballpark that. Came out somewhere between .28 and .36. So maybe one chance out of three.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 28, 2021 13:47:37 GMT -5
Nice way to start the spring.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Feb 28, 2021 15:25:11 GMT -5
Nice way to start the spring.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 28, 2021 23:44:16 GMT -5
I did a cuff calculation to get an estimate on the probability of Dalbec getting his K rate below 30% this season. I used his past record at different levels, and last year's ML crop of sub 30%ers, to ballpark that. Came out somewhere between .28 and .36. So maybe one chance out of three. What's messing with everyone's minds on this issue is the continual escalation of K rates. Last year, 30% would have been a 127 SO+.
But that makes me wonder which hitters the extra strikeouts are coming against. If the strikeout rate is being boosted by weak hitters fanning more, than that artificially lowers the SO+ for sluggers. In which case we'd see a recent rise in good seasons by high-K guys. So let me list the players with a SO+ of 125 who had a wRC+ of 120 each year ...
2020 153, 124 Willy Adames
129, 143 Teoscar Hernandez
126, 158 Ronald Acuna, Jr. 126, 120 Renato Nunez
2019
161, 137 Miguel Sano
140, 141 Aaron Judge 131, 150 Fernando Tatis, Jr. 127, 133 Eugenio Suarez
2018 140, 150 Aaron Judge 137, 128 Giancarlo Stanton 131, 121 Justin Upton 127, 149 Shohei Otani
2017
173, 126 Mike Zunino 168, 125 Miguel Sano 150, 125 Alex Avila 144, 174 Aaron Judge 140, 130 Khris Davis 139, 125 Eric Thames 137, 127 Domingo Santana 136, 121 Steven Souza, Jr.
133, 137 Justin Utron 131, 123 Paul DeJong
125, 138 Cody Bellinger
2016 151, 122 Trevor Story
148, 133 Tyler Naquin 131, 128 Joc Pederson 131, 122 Khris Davis
2015 157, 128 Randal Grichuk 155, 149 Chris Davis 153, 136 Kris Bryant 138, 122 Khris Davis 135, 136 J.D. Martinez 133, 143 Chris Colabello 132, 132 Brandon Belt
Three guys who are great hitters show up once. JDM was over the line his first two years after his transformation, then reduced his rate. Bryant and Bellinger got under after their rookie seasons.
You'll note that I did 2015, a sixth year, when I didn't plan to, to see if 2017 was an outlier. But then I ran into the rule that if your study goes back in time to when Chris Dave is good, you have to stop.
There's a 19% chance that the pattern of annual guys (7, 4, 12, but then 4, 4, 4) is random. So given the change in numbers you'd get if you tweaked the parameters, there's no evident trend, although 2017 does seem to be an outlier and may have something to do with launch angles. Or not.
But I think that 120 wRC+ is a good borderline, and 350 PA a good lower limit (120 last year). And this here is remarkable -- the total number of batting seasons at 120 wRC+ or above broken down by SO+.
125: 6 (i.e., 125-129) 130: 8 135: 6 140 exactly: 3! (2 of them Judge) 141: 1 145: 1 150: 4 155: 2 160: 1 165: 1 170: 1
It seems as if your odds of not having an excellent season at the bat do not decline till you pass 140 SO+. Which would be 33% if we get last year's K rate. You have to go back to 2016 to get 30% as the danger point, but whether we need to cue up Jethro Tull in 5/4 to explain why you picked 30% for now is an open question.
At this point I could go back and look at guys with 115-119 and 120-124 SO+. But the smarter thing to do is just grab all the hitting seasons from 2003 to 2019 with 350 PA and look at the relationship between SO+ and wRC+.
That's the next little study. Maybe later tonight. Meanwhile, I've still got the complete 32 stages of Dalbec broken down and unposted!
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Post by joshuacoffee on Apr 13, 2021 8:47:58 GMT -5
So how long of a leash is Dalbec going to get at the big league level right now? (I'm actually asking for thoughts on that question, not making a statement.)
I agree there's a chance he's got a bright future and today is probably too early to pull the trigger on anything. But unless there's a turn around soon, we may actually be playing games that mean something more than just how far we miss the playoffs by and having the hole in the lineup that Dalbec has been so far this year could hurt. Maybe the double he got in the last game is the start of a turn around, but the fact that the only sign of hope that you can point to is a game where he went 1 for 4 with a double, a walk, and yet another strikeout really does paint the picture of the type of season Dalbec is having so far. If he has even a modicum of mediocrity this week, assuming some games get played, then I think it's a no brainer to keep him up and playing. Another week of sub 600 OPS and someone's got to at least be considering that maybe Chavis' spring earned him a look while Dalbec goes to minor league camp to figure things out, right? How big of a sample size do we need to make the call that Dalbec still needs to figure a few things out.
I thought maybe the decision gets pushed back to May 4 when the AAA season starts, but upon further consideration, I can't imagine sacrificing a week or two of a spot in the batting order in a season where that could make a difference for a week or two of getting Dalbec game at bats where he looks mostly lost.
Or maybe this last week has just made me too optimistic about the Sox this year and I'm being too pessimistic about Dalbec figuring things out at the big league level.
Here's to hoping Dalbec has such a good week that this question looks foolish in retrospect!
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Post by Addam603 on Apr 13, 2021 9:11:13 GMT -5
It’s a valid question but I think Dalbec’s line looks worse than it actually is. The strikeouts aren’t great (36%) but that’s actually an improvement so far over last year. Not good, but progress. He’s walking at over a 10% clip. More importantly, of the 15 balls he’s put in play only 3 of them have fallen for hits. That’s a .200 BABIP and that will definitely come up with how hard he hits the ball.
Granted his hard hit percentage (44% to 27%) and Exit Velocity (89.9 to 86.7) have dropped so far this year but that’s not something I see as a trend that will actually continue. If he’s still hitting like this by the end of May, then I’d do something about it.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 13, 2021 9:13:10 GMT -5
He is going to have weeks like this. He is going to have weeks where he hits six homers. He has a career line of .229/.325/.495 with 8 homers and 49 K in 120 PA, with 0.3 bWAR. That works out to a player who, over 600 PA, will hit 40 homers, strike out 245 times, and have a 1.5 bWAR. That feels... pretty much exactly right?
If this is the player that he is he will probably bounce around a bit, because you can definitely upgrade on a 1.5 bWAR first baseman but there will always be a team that is in need of one.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 13, 2021 9:38:10 GMT -5
Ultimately, there is zero reason to move him now. The offense is fine as he works stuff out, and he has been good defensively. I have to say, too, that as statistically bad as he has been, he doesn’t look totally overwhelmed. When Chavis has been at his bottom, he looked far worse to me at the plate... like he would never hit. Dalbec looks like a fine hitter in a bad stretch.
Anyway, I’d rather have him working around JDM everyday then at the alt site.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 13, 2021 9:51:41 GMT -5
WAR calculations include defense.
I think he gets at least until the end of the month and potentially longer, although it depends on if there are signs of life in the bat.
Also, FWIW, it looks very likely he graduates when we do our May 1 update.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 13, 2021 9:52:49 GMT -5
Ultimately, there is zero reason to move him now. The offense is fine as he works stuff out, and he has been good defensively. I have to say, too, that as statistically bad as he has been, he doesn’t look totally overwhelmed. When Chavis has been at his bottom, he looked far worse to me at the plate... like he would never hit. Dalbec looks like a fine hitter in a bad stretch. Anyway, I’d rather have him working around JDM everyday then at the alt site. I dunno man, they both looked pretty lost when they're going badly. To me the biggest differences are a) that Dalbec's defense at first makes him less of a total black hole when he's going poorly, and b) the fact that Chavis's flaws are more specific and can possibly be worked on at the alternate site. Like, if you can train Chavis to be an acceptable second baseman then he has a path to being an MLB bench player. With Dalbec it's kinda sink-or-swim at this point in his development. It's hard to see what he'd improve upon by being in the minors. We know he can hit bombs off Triple-A pitchers.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 13, 2021 9:53:55 GMT -5
So how long of a leash is Dalbec going to get at the big league level right now? (I'm actually asking for thoughts on that question, not making a statement.) I agree there's a chance he's got a bright future and today is probably too early to pull the trigger on anything. But unless there's a turn around soon, we may actually be playing games that mean something more than just how far we miss the playoffs by and having the hole in the lineup that Dalbec has been so far this year could hurt. Maybe the double he got in the last game is the start of a turn around, but the fact that the only sign of hope that you can point to is a game where he went 1 for 4 with a double, a walk, and yet another strikeout really does paint the picture of the type of season Dalbec is having so far. If he has even a modicum of mediocrity this week, assuming some games get played, then I think it's a no brainer to keep him up and playing. Another week of sub 600 OPS and someone's got to at least be considering that maybe Chavis' spring earned him a look while Dalbec goes to minor league camp to figure things out, right? How big of a sample size do we need to make the call that Dalbec still needs to figure a few things out. I thought maybe the decision gets pushed back to May 4 when the AAA season starts, but upon further consideration, I can't imagine sacrificing a week or two of a spot in the batting order in a season where that could make a difference for a week or two of getting Dalbec game at bats where he looks mostly lost. Or maybe this last week has just made me too optimistic about the Sox this year and I'm being too pessimistic about Dalbec figuring things out at the big league level. Here's to hoping Dalbec has such a good week that this question looks foolish in retrospect! What James said. With Dalbec you'll ride the highs and lows. A HR streak will come. He had his in spring training unfortunately and while we know you can't trust spring training stats, I think it's just the nature of the way he plays. He'll get hot and hit a bunch of HRs and he'll have streaks like this where his bat is lethargic and he strikes out a ton. Hell, even when he is in a hot streak he'll whiff a bunch. I still think he'll smack 30 - 40 HRs this season. The question is will he hit just enough or more importantly get on-base enough? He should get a full chance for this season.
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Post by manfred on Apr 13, 2021 9:57:11 GMT -5
Right, defense in there. I guess for all the focus on Dalbec, looking at WAR, you have Renfroe at -.3 in far less time, Marwin at 0.0, Arroyo at 0.0, Kiké at 0.1.... there are a lot of guys who are hardly torching anyone. Yet things are going fine. One has to hope that as CVaz and JDM return to this plane of existence, some of the slow starters will pick up the slack.
Add: indeed, if we should be talking about pressing banishment, Renfroe would top my list.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 13, 2021 10:06:49 GMT -5
Right, defense in there. I guess for all the focus on Dalbec, looking at WAR, you have Renfroe at -.3 in far less time, Marwin at 0.0, Arroyo at 0.0, Kiké at 0.1.... there are a lot of guys who are hardly torching anyone. Yet things are going fine. One has to hope that as CVaz and JDM return to this plane of existence, some of the slow starters will pick up the slack. Add: indeed, if we should be talking about pressing banishment, Renfroe would top my list. So Kiké's on pace for a 2-WAR season? Not bad!
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 13, 2021 10:08:36 GMT -5
Right, defense in there. I guess for all the focus on Dalbec, looking at WAR, you have Renfroe at -.3 in far less time, Marwin at 0.0, Arroyo at 0.0, Kiké at 0.1.... there are a lot of guys who are hardly torching anyone. Yet things are going fine. One has to hope that as CVaz and JDM return to this plane of existence, some of the slow starters will pick up the slack. Add: indeed, if we should be talking about pressing banishment, Renfroe would top my list. So Kiké's on pace for a 2-WAR season? Not bad! Touché.
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