SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
|
Post by dyoungteach on Apr 13, 2021 11:06:32 GMT -5
So how long of a leash is Dalbec going to get at the big league level right now? (I'm actually asking for thoughts on that question, not making a statement.) I agree there's a chance he's got a bright future and today is probably too early to pull the trigger on anything. But unless there's a turn around soon, we may actually be playing games that mean something more than just how far we miss the playoffs by and having the hole in the lineup that Dalbec has been so far this year could hurt. Maybe the double he got in the last game is the start of a turn around, but the fact that the only sign of hope that you can point to is a game where he went 1 for 4 with a double, a walk, and yet another strikeout really does paint the picture of the type of season Dalbec is having so far. If he has even a modicum of mediocrity this week, assuming some games get played, then I think it's a no brainer to keep him up and playing. Another week of sub 600 OPS and someone's got to at least be considering that maybe Chavis' spring earned him a look while Dalbec goes to minor league camp to figure things out, right? How big of a sample size do we need to make the call that Dalbec still needs to figure a few things out. I thought maybe the decision gets pushed back to May 4 when the AAA season starts, but upon further consideration, I can't imagine sacrificing a week or two of a spot in the batting order in a season where that could make a difference for a week or two of getting Dalbec game at bats where he looks mostly lost. Or maybe this last week has just made me too optimistic about the Sox this year and I'm being too pessimistic about Dalbec figuring things out at the big league level. Here's to hoping Dalbec has such a good week that this question looks foolish in retrospect! What James said. With Dalbec you'll ride the highs and lows. A HR streak will come. He had his in spring training unfortunately and while we know you can't trust spring training stats, I think it's just the nature of the way he plays. He'll get hot and hit a bunch of HRs and he'll have streaks like this where his bat is lethargic and he strikes out a ton. Hell, even when he is in a hot streak he'll whiff a bunch. I still think he'll smack 30 - 40 HRs this season. The question is will he hit just enough or more importantly get on-base enough? He should get a full chance for this season. This could simply be he is taking his time adjusting. I don’t believe dalbec is our long term solution at 1st. ( that’s casas I think). But I do believe dalbec is our 1-3 year stop gap u too he is traded for a reliever or part of bigger deal or even for the next prospect in the minors. Right now it doesn’t seem he is hurting the Red Sox while he adjusts to the speed of the game at this level and learns how to become a “professional” at the major league level
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,638
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 13, 2021 11:23:10 GMT -5
What James said. With Dalbec you'll ride the highs and lows. A HR streak will come. He had his in spring training unfortunately and while we know you can't trust spring training stats, I think it's just the nature of the way he plays. He'll get hot and hit a bunch of HRs and he'll have streaks like this where his bat is lethargic and he strikes out a ton. Hell, even when he is in a hot streak he'll whiff a bunch. I still think he'll smack 30 - 40 HRs this season. The question is will he hit just enough or more importantly get on-base enough? He should get a full chance for this season. This could simply be he is taking his time adjusting. I don’t believe dalbec is our long term solution at 1st. ( that’s casas I think). But I do believe dalbec is our 1-3 year stop gap u too he is traded for a reliever or part of bigger deal or even for the next prospect in the minors. Right now it doesn’t seem he is hurting the Red Sox while he adjusts to the speed of the game at this level and learns how to become a “professional” at the major league level That's how I see it. Tristan Casas is the future of 1b for the Red Sox, whether it's next year or more likely the year after. Dalbec has a window of time to establish himself and increase his trade value or perhaps be 3b insurance if Devers' defense doesn't solidify. The Sox and Devers might not come to a long-term agreement and perhaps Dalbec winds up at 3b depending upon what happens to X, who could shift to 3b down the road if he sticks around. A lot of possibilities with the most likely scenario that he fills the gap for this year and next, hits 30 plus HRs each year, and winds up valuable trade bait, but that's to be determined. Either way, he's our 1b this year and it is time for him to sink or swim. There's a wide range of outcomes for a lot of players but I think with Dalbec there's less risk. We know he'll whiff a ton and he will hit homers. It's just will he get on base enough?
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,754
|
Post by mobaz on Apr 13, 2021 16:00:09 GMT -5
3 good at-bats today, strong contact to opposite field (and 2 doubles to show for it). Crisis averted.
If he can be "Travis Shaw" for a few years, I think that's a great outcome.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 13, 2021 17:25:53 GMT -5
Prediction: he will be much better than Shaw.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,912
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 13, 2021 18:10:27 GMT -5
Prediction: he will be much better than Shaw. He's an anti-Shaw, just as he's the anti-JBJ. Both of those guys could stay in bad-mechanics / bad-approach funks for months at a time, or even an entire season playing part-time. Dalbec makes adjustments quicker than anyone I've ever seen (and his minor league game logs show the same thing).
He also maybe gets himself into funks quicker than most, but not, it seems, in a way that stands out so far from the crowd. That should result in overall numbers that are both better, and more consistent from year to year.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Apr 13, 2021 18:39:00 GMT -5
Prediction: he will be much better than Shaw. He's an anti-Shaw, just as he's the anti-JBJ. Both of those guys could stay in bad-mechanics / bad-approach funks for months at a time, or even an entire season playing part-time. Dalbec makes adjustments quicker than anyone I've ever seen (and his minor league game logs show the same thing).
He also maybe gets himself into funks quicker than most, but not, it seems, in a way that stands out so far from the crowd. That should result in overall numbers that are both better, and more consistent from year to year.
He's got a documented pattern at levels which might be described as three steps forward two steps back, three steps forward.
|
|
manfred
Veteran
Posts: 11,359
Member is Online
|
Post by manfred on Apr 13, 2021 20:26:17 GMT -5
I take Eric’s point that the comp is apples and oranges, but if he is better than Shaw, that is really great. Shaw has had some very good seasons. I’d be very happy with that.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 13, 2021 20:58:18 GMT -5
I take Eric’s point that the comp is apples and oranges, but if he is better than Shaw, that is really great. Shaw has had some very good seasons. I’d be very happy with that. 2.5, in fact, although he's off to a good start this year back with Milwaukee having solidified his grasp on their starting 3B job.
|
|
manfred
Veteran
Posts: 11,359
Member is Online
|
Post by manfred on Apr 13, 2021 21:06:29 GMT -5
I take Eric’s point that the comp is apples and oranges, but if he is better than Shaw, that is really great. Shaw has had some very good seasons. I’d be very happy with that. 2.5, in fact, although he's off to a good start this year back with Milwaukee having solidified his grasp on their starting 3B job. Hey, I’d take 2.5. I’m not greedy.
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Apr 13, 2021 21:40:57 GMT -5
These latest comments re Dalbec are filled with broad assumptions that beg further comment.
Let us start with the question of three steps forward, two steps back and quicker adjustments than anyone. These are theoretical, and we all hope they are true. But, a couple of line drives to right are not proof that Dalbec has turned his hitting problems around. He was bound to hit better than .095 unless he regressed five years in two weeks.
Now, please believe me that I hope that Dalbec becomes a 30 to 40 HR guy. He certainly could because he has shown that he could do that on the way up. It is no sure thing, so anyone predicting that does so after at some risk.
But if he does reach that level, there is no reason to believe that he becomes trade bait. If he is hits as well as Devers and plays better defense, he is no more likely to be trade bait than Devers. And there is still the question of Casas who has yet to have an amazing season in his shortened career.
All three players have things to prove.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,912
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 14, 2021 0:59:36 GMT -5
These latest comments re Dalbec are filled with broad assumptions that beg further comment. Let us start with the question of three steps forward, two steps back and quicker adjustments than anyone. These are theoretical, and we all hope they are true. But, a couple of line drives to right are not proof that Dalbec has turned his hitting problems around. He was bound to hit better than .095 unless he regressed five years in two weeks. Now, please believe me that I hope that Dalbec becomes a 30 to 40 HR guy. He certainly could because he has shown that he could do that on the way up. It is no sure thing, so anyone predicting that does so after at some risk. But if he does reach that level, there is no reason to believe that he becomes trade bait. If he is hits as well as Devers and plays better defense, he is no more likely to be trade bait than Devers. And there is still the question of Casas who has yet to have an amazing season in his shortened career. All three players have things to prove. 1) No, they're heavily based on data. I've broken down Dalbec's career into 34 distinct phases (3, 4, 9, 14, and 4 by seasons). At no point did I have any problem deciding where a phase started or ended. I just looked at homer and strikeout clusters, and then some walk clusters were really obvious. The phases have gotten progressively shorter in length since Lowell. Here, as an example, is his 2019 season with Portland. The three numbers are his K rate, his UBB rate, and his HR/Contact, all expressed as a + metric, where 100 is league average, 150 is 50% more, and so on. G PA SO+ BB+ HRC+ 27 108 120 208 118 14 57 76 104 499 8 36 204 0 758 8 35 62 304 341 7 26 116 228 0 6 24 198 49 0 9 37 117 224 853 11 45 48 316 0 15 65 99 73 78 2) He had 2 balls of 107 mph or better in his previous game. In fact, he's been getting steadily better. Here's his game log, with K, BB. Then balls less than 90 mph, balls 100 + (with the EV's). He has yet to record an EV in the 90's in 18 times making contact.
2, 0. 1, 0 2, 1. 1, 0. 1, 0. 3, 0. [two days off] 0, 0. 3, 1 (100.9). 2, 0. 1, 1 (100.2) 2, 1. 1, 0. 1, 1. 1, 2 (107.6, 110.0) 0, 0. 0, 3 (105.6, 107.4, 111.3)
You can see the progress:
5 K, 1 BB, 0 of 5 balls hit hard 4 K, 1 BB, 2 of 7 balls hit hard (both 100) 1 K, 1 BB, 5 of 6 balls hit hard (all 105 +).
That's rather different from two liners out of the blue.
|
|
|
Post by dyoungteach on Apr 14, 2021 3:13:53 GMT -5
Great couple days for dalbec. And very encouraged to see jd taking him under his wing and working with him to correct some issues.
JD is a perfect example of why dalbec might be a LOT more than just trade bait and we need to allow him time. Jd floundered for years with Astros. Then was waived and clicked.
To me, dalbec has shown he has good solid defense and is a threat every time up. I’m much more confident and encouraged when he comes up than I ever would be or have been with chavis.
Would anyone argue against the theory that dalbec could easily be like voit ( in past years) this year? Or Matt Olson. Or jarred Walsh Or Evan white. ( I could go on). Essentially average overall 1st at a pretty low salary and still growing into his tools
|
|
|
Post by joshuacoffee on Apr 14, 2021 8:22:07 GMT -5
Good game for Dalbec (although a weird game overall with him, Renfro, and Arroyo carrying the lineup). This was the type of thing I was hoping to see this week out of him. Now, if he goes 0 for the rest of the week, of course, I'm not sure I feel any better about him for the right now, but there's no reason to think that will happen.
Thanks for that great breakdown ericmvan!
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 14, 2021 11:04:11 GMT -5
There are a few reasons for my optimism.
He and Martinez are very similar. They are big guys with lots of power and long swings. What he needs to figure out is what Martinez has mastered and can teach him: how to use pitch patterns to figure out what to try to do with the ball. Martinez is a master of that, consistently driving balls on the outer half the other way, and then turning on pitches middle in when they're made available and he's prepared. So yes having him sit at Martinez' feet to hear how insanely that guy preps for a pitch sequence will be very important.
Separate from that is his athleticism. He looks in really good physical condition, and he's much faster than I thought he was. The fact that he beat out what should have been an easy double play to give the Sox a chance at winning a game was a revelation. And he beat it easily. He plays both infield corners and he's got a cannon arm. It's easy to imagine rotating him along with Devers and Casas in a 1b/DH/3b role if it all plays out, something I've suggested previously.
There are some potential pitfalls in that analysis of course. I think he's got a high ceiling but a few hills to climb to get there.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,912
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 21, 2021 16:19:03 GMT -5
Season so far, in silly small chunks: Dates What wOBA xwOBA Z-Con SO 4/2 - 4/4 O's .063 .148 .286 .455 4/7 - 4/11 TB, O's .260 .519 .708 .333 4/13 - 4/15 Twins .380 .397 .583 .444 4/18 - homs .518 .602 .750 .250
|
|
|
Post by Addam603 on Apr 22, 2021 14:13:01 GMT -5
Some glass half full numbers for Bobby.
He’s cut his K% from 42.4% down to 34%. Still high, but that’s progress.
His exit velocity, barrel %, and hard hit % are all at or around where they were last year (a little lower, but once he heats up things will go the other way).
His expected batting average, weightedOBA, and slugging are way higher than his real numbers, suggesting that he’s been unlucky.
95th percentile in barrel %, 91st percentile in slugging percentage, 84th percentile in xBA and 85th in xwOBA. Shockingly, he’s also 84th percentile in sprint speed.
Granted I’m cherry picking the best numbers, but even with him not blasting home runs he’s showing some very good numbers hitting the ball.
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,656
|
Post by gerry on Apr 22, 2021 15:05:34 GMT -5
I have always liked this kid. I am now a fan. In these several weeks I have come to understand that, learning as he goes and grows, his evolving potential includes heads up play, increasingly strong defense, and unexpected speed.
Improving footwork and 3B level fielding and arm were highlighted by the recent DP he started. Stretching that double into a triple caught me off guard even more than beating out that FC. His oppo hits in meaningful ABs are the work of a hitter. His reputation was built on being Bobby Bombs, but Bobby is becoming more than that.
By no means a finished product, he has already demonstrated what he ican become, HR or no. To solid defense, good OBP, heady play, surprising base running, versatility, and long levers saving bad throws, add 30HR and 35-40 doubles and he looks more like a Bobby Baseball. It is a process that requires patience.
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Apr 24, 2021 0:10:13 GMT -5
It’s crazy to think Dalbec is actually contributing and yet not has hit a HR. If he ever gets hot and gets a couple his overall numbers are going to look real good.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,912
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2021 4:59:04 GMT -5
Some glass half full numbers for Bobby. He’s cut his K% from 42.4% down to 34%. Still high, but that’s progress. His exit velocity, barrel %, and hard hit % are all at or around where they were last year (a little lower, but once he heats up things will go the other way). His expected batting average, weightedOBA, and slugging are way higher than his real numbers, suggesting that he’s been unlucky. 95th percentile in barrel %, 91st percentile in slugging percentage, 84th percentile in xBA and 85th in xwOBA. Shockingly, he’s also 84th percentile in sprint speed.
Granted I’m cherry picking the best numbers, but even with him not blasting home runs he’s showing some very good numbers hitting the ball. Dalbec's sprint speed would rank him 7th of 32 in RF. And he has that cannon.
This changes the entire Devers / Casas / Dalbec logjam notion. There's no guarantee that Jimenez is what we hope he'll be, and Casas will be in the picture a good year or two before him.
So now the question is where JDM falls on the Jason Bay to Nelson Cruz scale of masher longevity. The one idea I have (based on Bay as one data point!) is that guys whose success is based on tremendous success over a small part of the zone have rapid declines early, while guys who cover the whole zone really well have a great aging curve (OK, Papi makes that two data points). But the general point is that they very likely have a predictive understanding of slugger aging, and already know whether they want or expect JDM to finish his career here.
|
|
|
Post by Coreno on Apr 24, 2021 9:17:26 GMT -5
Some glass half full numbers for Bobby. He’s cut his K% from 42.4% down to 34%. Still high, but that’s progress. His exit velocity, barrel %, and hard hit % are all at or around where they were last year (a little lower, but once he heats up things will go the other way). His expected batting average, weightedOBA, and slugging are way higher than his real numbers, suggesting that he’s been unlucky. 95th percentile in barrel %, 91st percentile in slugging percentage, 84th percentile in xBA and 85th in xwOBA. Shockingly, he’s also 84th percentile in sprint speed.
Granted I’m cherry picking the best numbers, but even with him not blasting home runs he’s showing some very good numbers hitting the ball. Dalbec's sprint speed would rank him 7th of 32 in RF. And he has that cannon.
This changes the entire Devers / Casas / Dalbec logjam notion. There's no guarantee that Jimenez is what we hope he'll be, and Casas will be in the picture a good year or two before him.
So now the question is where JDM falls on the Jason Bay to Nelson Cruz scale of masher longevity. The one idea I have (based on Bay as one data point!) is that guys whose success is based on tremendous success over a small part of the zone have rapid declines early, while guys who cover the whole zone really well have a great aging curve (OK, Papi makes that two data points). But the general point is that they very likely have a predictive understanding of slugger aging, and already know whether they want or expect JDM to finish his career here. This is interesting. I had brought up the idea of him in RF a year or two ago and was rebuffed by Chris that he wasn't athletic enough for the outfield. I think it was when scouting reports on him were trending down on his defense as he was looking pretty stiff at 3B, so it does seem like a lot has changed since then. Always felt moving him to 1B was wasting his best defensive asset in his arm.
|
|
|
Post by Coreno on Apr 24, 2021 9:24:37 GMT -5
I've wondered how Dalbec would profile in RF... Guess it was more than "a year or two ago".
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,963
|
Post by jimoh on Apr 25, 2021 9:16:38 GMT -5
I don't think the data on Dalbec's top sprint speed takes into account whether or not he is quick at going from standing still to running, which is usually the big challenge with a big man. How quick is he from home to first? This site says "Takes some time to get going, but able to go from first to third on a single when on the move." And elsewhere this site said "Timing him from home to first does not really do Dalbec justice, as he will put up times around 4.5 seconds, which correlate to well below-average speed, but when he gets going, he can actually move a bit given his long stride, and he can comfortably go from first to third on a single."
Still, I look at the way he handles himself around 1b and he precise way he goes after the ball and gets himself in position to throw or catch, and I wonder what he would be like in a small LF with some challenges like ours, when Casas is ready.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on May 17, 2021 15:29:44 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on May 17, 2021 20:43:08 GMT -5
I happen to like Dalbec. He has great usable power. He fields well. I am rooting for him.
That said, it was a month ago when the leadership of this forum told us that Bobby makes adjustments faster than the average bear and other predictive declarations of coming success.
We are now into the second half of May and I would love hear folks like Eric and Norm comments on trends and adjustments now. Do they still feel as sure as they did, and, if so, why.
Respectfully submitted.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on May 17, 2021 20:54:40 GMT -5
Did you watch the video? If not, the thing that has me optimistic is how many times he's barreling up on the ball, he's in the 94th percentile (16.4% of the time, vs. 5% average). For him to be batting so poorly with those barrel numbers screams unlucky. So unfortunately I would say the message is still "give him more time".
On the flip side, it is disappointing to see his low contact rates. That also came out strongly in the video, both in the zone and out of the zone.
|
|
|