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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 2, 2016 5:26:06 GMT -5
All the way up to # 11. Heartthrob Bob might be Bombing his way into the top 10 before we know it. A little insider info: if Cundall had his way, he would be now. Pushed HARD too.
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Post by soxcentral on Sept 2, 2016 6:58:56 GMT -5
All the way up to # 11. Heartthrob Bob might be Bombing his way into the top 10 before we know it. A little insider info: if Cundall had his way, he would be now. Pushed HARD too. Just to be clear, this is the same Ian Cundall who said this on draft day?
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 2, 2016 8:56:39 GMT -5
For a 4th round pick to rise to #11 the same year he was drafted might be unprecedented, no? Ryan Westmoreland and Will Middlebrooks were fifth round picks who were ranked 8th and 12th at the end of their first pro seasons. Different rules then though, both of them were big bonus HS picks, Dalbec was a college pick who basically got slot. Another issue, though, is that the Red Sox only go about 13 deep right now on prospects with real value. Sam Travis was probably a slightly better prospect two years ago at this time, and he was ranked 17th. Just to be clear, this is the same Ian Cundall who said this on draft day? Nope. That was Ian T. aka templeusox. Careful or you're going to inadvertently start a Wolverines vs. Owls brawl.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 2, 2016 12:01:58 GMT -5
....and just last year, Logan Allen drafted in the 7th round was ranked #13 in the fall. That said, he was paid overslot like a 3rd rounder but then again, so was Dalbec.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 2, 2016 13:10:34 GMT -5
Also, Lakins pushed into the top 10 to start this season.
Tough to compare with the old draft rules though. Lars Anderson got into the top 10 before his first full season and he was drafted in the 18th round.
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Post by templeusox on Sept 2, 2016 16:13:59 GMT -5
For a 4th round pick to rise to #11 the same year he was drafted might be unprecedented, no? Ryan Westmoreland and Will Middlebrooks were fifth round picks who were ranked 8th and 12th at the end of their first pro seasons. Different rules then though, both of them were big bonus HS picks, Dalbec was a college pick who basically got slot. Another issue, though, is that the Red Sox only go about 13 deep right now on prospects with real value. Sam Travis was probably a slightly better prospect two years ago at this time, and he was ranked 17th. Just to be clear, this is the same Ian Cundall who said this on draft day? Nope. That was Ian T. aka templeusox. Careful or you're going to inadvertently start a Wolverines vs. Owls brawl. No doubt. I saw him for a week last year in Cary, NC and he looked like Jarrod Saltalamacchia in his un-prime. You could tell him a ball in the dirt was coming and he would still swing at it. He was terrible on Team USA and he was actually worse for Arizona this year. I've got no idea where this run is coming from. I'm not going to say I've done a 180 on him; I still need to see him succeed in High-A, but my eyes are opened.
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 2, 2016 16:29:36 GMT -5
Ryan Westmoreland and Will Middlebrooks were fifth round picks who were ranked 8th and 12th at the end of their first pro seasons. Different rules then though, both of them were big bonus HS picks, Dalbec was a college pick who basically got slot. Another issue, though, is that the Red Sox only go about 13 deep right now on prospects with real value. Sam Travis was probably a slightly better prospect two years ago at this time, and he was ranked 17th. Nope. That was Ian T. aka templeusox. Careful or you're going to inadvertently start a Wolverines vs. Owls brawl. No doubt. I saw him for a week last year in Cary, NC and he looked like Jarrod Saltalamacchia in his un-prime. You could tell him a ball in the dirt was coming and he would still swing at it. He was terrible on Team USA and he was actually worse for Arizona this year. I've got no idea where this run is coming from. I'm not going to say I've done a 180 on him; I still need to see him succeed in High-A, but my eyes are opened. I will settle for howhe does at low A next year at Greenville. Still has a lot of holes in his swing.
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Post by azblue on Sept 2, 2016 16:45:22 GMT -5
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 2, 2016 21:36:46 GMT -5
Any way Dalbec and or Groome make the top 100 at the end of the year?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 2, 2016 23:17:13 GMT -5
Any way Dalbec and or Groome make the top 100 at the end of the year? There is no way that Groome wouldn't. He's a guy who was a 1-1 candidate based solely on talent. Dalbec probably won't, but who knows? I doubt just over 1 month of minor league success is going to erase his spring enough for him to jump THAT high.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 2, 2016 23:23:04 GMT -5
Also, Lakins pushed into the top 10 to start this season. Tough to compare with the old draft rules though. Lars Anderson got into the top 10 before his first full season and he was drafted in the 18th round. I have a spreadsheet that goes back to 2003 and has every significant bonus (both draft picks and international signings) translated into the nearest slot recommendation for that year -- a lot of that info no longer easy to find on the net. It's up to 185 players now. Lots of other info, too, such as inflation-adjusted bonus, BA draft ranking, year-by-year BA prospect rankings, highest level reached and highest level where they lost rookie status by MLB's criteria, current status, how they left the system if they did. At season's end I should probably figure out a way to share it with everyone as a Google doc. It's fun to mess around with, especially if you know how to filter Excel spreadsheets. (Where does Luis Basabe rank in slot-translated bonus among international CF signings? Sixth after Rusney, Margot, Juan Carlos Linares, Engel Beltre, and Che-Hsuan Lin. He's ahead of Lin in inflation-adjusted, though).
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 3, 2016 6:59:49 GMT -5
Any way Dalbec and or Groome make the top 100 at the end of the year? There is no way that Groome wouldn't. He's a guy who was a 1-1 candidate based solely on talent. Dalbec probably won't, but who knows? I doubt just over 1 month of minor league success is going to erase his spring enough for him to jump THAT high. Totally agree with that. Chris you are right on point. I would think Groome is in. Dalbec is on a short sample hot streak. Deepjohn probably has some data that somes up where he stands. Still lots of strikeouts at short season A and not sure if he can hit the curve. Still think, in two years, it will not be surprising to me that Dalbec is being tried as a relief pitcher.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 3, 2016 7:20:41 GMT -5
Move over Benintendi...
Dalbec at Lowell:
395/.440/.702/1.142
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Post by adamoraz on Sept 3, 2016 7:49:13 GMT -5
Man he is absolutely dominating this league. With those numbers and that write up from BA, maybe he does stand an outside chance of slipping into the top 100. He's certainly making a strong case for himself, so it will be interesting to see if he (and Doubon?) can get in.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 3, 2016 8:10:24 GMT -5
I'm going to throw some cold water on this. It's Lowell, he's got college experience, and those numbers while not completely meaningless are at least suspect. On the other side of the coin, Betts would still be in the minors if his A- numbers had been predictive. I'll see about catching up to the bandwagon once there's more evidence that he's eating from higher up the minor league food chain.
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Post by adamoraz on Sept 3, 2016 8:37:11 GMT -5
True, but Betts was only 19 when he played in ththe NY-Penn league, and he had never played in college or the cape cod league so it should be expected that he'd start out a little behind. If he had that experience, I'm guessing his numbers at Lowell would have looked a lot more like Benny's numbers last year.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 3, 2016 8:44:07 GMT -5
You realize you're doing my arguing for me, right?
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Post by adamoraz on Sept 3, 2016 9:00:49 GMT -5
Wasn't aware we were arguing. Just saying that Dalbec is 2 years older and had a chance to play cape cod (where he excelled) so it shouldn't come as a surprise that he's outperforming Betts at this level. I'm not sure how that's supposed to make Dalbec less exciting right now.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 3, 2016 9:39:26 GMT -5
Seems as if Pawtucket and Portland have been barren the last few years Well they did have Moncado and Benintendi for half a season this year.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 3, 2016 12:41:38 GMT -5
Wasn't aware we were arguing. Just saying that Dalbec is 2 years older and had a chance to play cape cod (where he excelled) so it shouldn't come as a surprise that he's outperforming Betts at this level. I'm not sure how that's supposed to make Dalbec less exciting right now. We're not. Your stating my premise - my argument - for me. That league is all over the map talent-wise: phenomenal athletic specimens and raw talents from countries that don't have the same level of youth baseball as the US; high school players who've tested out at a high level but who haven't focused exclusively on one sport - like Betts; and lots of college players many from big conferences who dominate and then disappear. I'm not going to hold my breath on this guy just yet.
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 3, 2016 14:37:32 GMT -5
Seems as if Pawtucket and Portland have been barren the last few years This is an interesting comment to me. On the major league roster you have mookie, xb, jbj, beni, swihart, and barnes. cv has caught in the bigs and done very well. Moncada is just coming in. Erod though acquired from Baltimore was in Portland etc. All 25 and younger. Seems like the sox have gotten a lot out of their farm system. Be interested in seeing how many other teams have that much young talent on their roster from their farm system.
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Post by adamoraz on Sept 3, 2016 16:12:43 GMT -5
Wasn't aware we were arguing. Just saying that Dalbec is 2 years older and had a chance to play cape cod (where he excelled) so it shouldn't come as a surprise that he's outperforming Betts at this level. I'm not sure how that's supposed to make Dalbec less exciting right now. We're not. Your stating my premise - my argument - for me. That league is all over the map talent-wise: phenomenal athletic specimens and raw talents from countries that don't have the same level of youth baseball as the US; high school players who've tested out at a high level but who haven't focused exclusively on one sport - like Betts; and lots of college players many from big conferences who dominate and then disappear. I'm not going to hold my breath on this guy just yet. So because he's doing well now you expect him to disappoint later? That is way to pessimistic for me. I can see we're not going to see eye to eye on this (As we're drawing totally opposite conclusions from the same basic facts), so before I move on, let me just state that I look at things much more optimistically. While I know that any prospect could wind up flushing out (except maybe Benny) I don't necessarily expect them too. So if Dalbec winds up disappointing in the next couple of years, so be it. But as long as he's exceeding expectations to such a degree, I'm going to sit back and cheer this exciting player on (as I cheer all of the Sox prospects on) as he continues his climb up the prospects board. And lets not compare people to Betts, Mookie is Superman.
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Post by adamoraz on Sept 3, 2016 16:17:35 GMT -5
Seems as if Pawtucket and Portland have been barren the last few years This is an interesting comment to me. On the major league roster you have mookie, xb, jbj, beni, swihart, and barnes. cv has caught in the bigs and done very well. Moncada is just coming in. Erod though acquired from Baltimore was in Portland etc. All 25 and younger. Seems like the sox have gotten a lot out of their farm system. Be interested in seeing how many other teams have that much young talent on their roster from their farm system. I can kind of see where he's coming from, most of our top prospects have spent a lot more time in the low minors the last few years. But I think you're right, we still have had a lot of guys fast forward through those levels lately. Besides, Portland has Doubon now, and Devers and Kopech will be there next year, so they'll be all right.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 3, 2016 17:56:17 GMT -5
We're not. Your stating my premise - my argument - for me. That league is all over the map talent-wise: phenomenal athletic specimens and raw talents from countries that don't have the same level of youth baseball as the US; high school players who've tested out at a high level but who haven't focused exclusively on one sport - like Betts; and lots of college players many from big conferences who dominate and then disappear. I'm not going to hold my breath on this guy just yet. So because he's doing well now you expect him to disappoint later? That is way to pessimistic for me. I can see we're not going to see eye to eye on this (As we're drawing totally opposite conclusions from the same basic facts), so before I move on, let me just state that I look at things much more optimistically. While I know that any prospect could wind up flushing out (except maybe Benny) I don't necessarily expect them too. So if Dalbec winds up disappointing in the next couple of years, so be it. But as long as he's exceeding expectations to such a degree, I'm going to sit back and cheer this exciting player on (as I cheer all of the Sox prospects on) as he continues his climb up the prospects board. And lets not compare people to Betts, Mookie is Superman. His point, which I agree with, is that Dalbec is an experienced player from a big D1 program who is not necessarily being challenged at all in low A ball. His great numbers aren't likely predictive of how he'll do moving forward, when he'll have his swing-and-miss tendencies exposed by better FB velocity and improved breaking pitch command. The point is that, while its better than Dalbec struggling, success in SS A ball doesn't mean much for a college player (which was the general concern re: Benintendi last year, and really up until he did well in AA this year). It's great that he's done well, but some of us are reserving excitement until he succeeds against much better competition (and/or is much more age-advanced).
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 3, 2016 18:56:37 GMT -5
So because he's doing well now you expect him to disappoint later? That is way to pessimistic for me. I can see we're not going to see eye to eye on this (As we're drawing totally opposite conclusions from the same basic facts), so before I move on, let me just state that I look at things much more optimistically. While I know that any prospect could wind up flushing out (except maybe Benny) I don't necessarily expect them too. So if Dalbec winds up disappointing in the next couple of years, so be it. But as long as he's exceeding expectations to such a degree, I'm going to sit back and cheer this exciting player on (as I cheer all of the Sox prospects on) as he continues his climb up the prospects board. And lets not compare people to Betts, Mookie is Superman. His point, which I agree with, is that Dalbec is an experienced player from a big D1 program who is not necessarily being challenged at all in low A ball. His great numbers aren't likely predictive of how he'll do moving forward, when he'll have his swing-and-miss tendencies exposed by better FB velocity and improved breaking pitch command. The point is that, while its better than Dalbec struggling, success in SS A ball doesn't mean much for a college player (which was the general concern re: Benintendi last year, and really up until he did well in AA this year). It's great that he's done well, but some of us are reserving excitement until he succeeds against much better competition (and/or is much more age-advanced). Well said. Greenville will provide a better test. All that's being said is lets temper him being a super star. That is not pessimism, you are dealing with people on this site that do ALOT OF predictive data analysis. They provide a lot of great info. The data base is very small. If he is still doing great next year at this time your excitement will be shared by all.
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