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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 19, 2021 19:05:07 GMT -5
Really good numbers no doubt and I think hes worth the growing pains but this stretch doesn't change my mind that they need another left hander who can actually hit to start taking time from marwin and Hernandez and Bobby during his slumps and also insurance in case he can't put together sustained success.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 19, 2021 19:12:36 GMT -5
Maybe the new rules enforcement will put a different spin on things.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 19, 2021 19:31:57 GMT -5
Maybe the new rules enforcement will put a different spin on things. I see what you did there.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 21, 2021 17:18:39 GMT -5
Short version first, with bullet points! - Dalbec's season breaks down into six very distinct stretches.
- Within each stretch, his separate "karma" (actual versus expected results) vs. RHP and LHP correlate so strongly with each other (r = .80, p = .054) as to strongly suggest there's a real component.
- And indeed, half of his "karma" can be explained as real, in a way that makes sense.
- Until this current stretch, he had never hit both RHP and LHP well at the same time.
- Without looking into it, I'm guessing that the previous point makes him look streakier than he has been.
I looked separately for streaks of xwOBA versus RHP and LHP. Each handedness divided into four chunks, which is to say, each had three breakpoints. The first breakpoint was shared (within 1 game wth 1 PA), so after that there were 5, hence six stretches. To my pleasant surprise, when an originally identified stretch in one handedness was divided by a breakpoint in the opposite, the new division was interesting and maybe meaningful.
So, here are the six stretches. The last column adjusts wOBA for the 47% of Karma that's just bad luck.
When PA xwOBA Karma wOBA K-Adj 4/2 - 4/11 28 .366 -.184 .182 .268 4/13 - 4/29 44 .378 -.038 .340 .358 4/30 - 5/6 20 .118 -.082 .036 .075 5/7 - 5/22 45 .326 .107 .433 .383 5/23 - 6/8 36 .248 -.123 .125 .183 6/10 - 6/20 37 .441 .068 .509 .477 Since 5/7 Dalbec has a .352 Karma-adjusted wOBA. That's borderline 1st-division starter at his position. Now, he will get cold again, and since we're looking here at a hot-cold-hot sandwich, we're going to want to include the numbers from his next slump if we want to get a meaningful read on where he stands. Nor do we know how long he'll stay hot, of course. But being as good as Freddie Freeman has been for the year, for a stretch of six weeks, tells you that progress is being made.
One way of looking at this: his first good-bad cluster was .269 over 92 PA, and his second was .294 over 81. So as impressive as his .383 was over 45 PA, the 17 awful days after it wiped most of it away. But as mentioned previously, he is hitting both RHP and LHP well at the same time, for the first time, and of course he's never hit this well for a stretch.
Next up: why the karma seems to be half-real.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 21, 2021 18:22:10 GMT -5
I have a feeling I'm the only person on this board whose hopes for Dalbec are higher now than they were when the season started. But his hot streaks keep returning, he seems to be a hard worker, and it would just seem kind of weird to me if he can't learn some way to mitigate the cold streaks, even if he can't eliminate them.
He's a career .232/.298/.482 hitter (107 wRC+), still through only 300 PAs - basically half a season. Those numbers seem promising to me. For context, in his first 730 PAs, Devers hit .254/.311/.449 - a 97 wRC+. Big age difference, obviously, but still.
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Post by bcsox on Jun 21, 2021 21:11:16 GMT -5
They noted on TV that he has been choking up on the bat for the past week or so, which obviously coincides with his improvement in numbers. If the adage that choking up on the bat increases your control of said bat therefore increasing contact percentages is true then this would seem to be a good idea, as Bobby seems to be strong enough to continue to put up power numbers while choking up. I have no idea if there is data out there on contact percentages while choking up(EV?). I would doubt it, and I would imagine there are enough negative side effects on choking up, timing, feel, length of swing..er al to suggest sometimes this may do more harm than good. I mention this because on radio they have mentioning it repeatedly during his at bats.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 21, 2021 22:29:09 GMT -5
I have a feeling I'm the only person on this board whose hopes for Dalbec are higher now than they were when the season started. But his hot streaks keep returning, he seems to be a hard worker, and it would just seem kind of weird to me if he can't learn some way to mitigate the cold streaks, even if he can't eliminate them. He's a career .232/.298/.482 hitter (107 wRC+), still through only 300 PAs - basically half a season. Those numbers seem promising to me. For context, in his first 730 PAs, Devers hit .254/.311/.449 - a 97 wRC+. Big age difference, obviously, but still. In a recent interview he talked about his mental approach ... I wish I could remember what he said in more detail, but it amounted to a self-awareness that he was putting too much pressure on himself and is working on relaxing, letting things come naturally rather than forcing things. I have the data that shows that his hot and cold streaks got shorter as he moved up the ladder, and it almost looks like when he was going hot he kept trying to be even better, with results that backfired.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 3, 2021 17:15:52 GMT -5
Short version first, with bullet points! - Dalbec's season breaks down into six very distinct stretches.
- Within each stretch, his separate "karma" (actual versus expected results) vs. RHP and LHP correlate so strongly with each other (r = .80, p = .054) as to strongly suggest there's a real component.
- And indeed, half of his "karma" can be explained as real, in a way that makes sense.
- Until this current stretch, he had never hit both RHP and LHP well at the same time.
- Without looking into it, I'm guessing that the previous point makes him look streakier than he has been.
I looked separately for streaks of xwOBA versus RHP and LHP. Each handedness divided into four chunks, which is to say, each had three breakpoints. The first breakpoint was shared (within 1 game wth 1 PA), so after that there were 5, hence six stretches. To my pleasant surprise, when an originally identified stretch in one handedness was divided by a breakpoint in the opposite, the new division was interesting and maybe meaningful.
So, here are the six stretches. The last column adjusts wOBA for the 47% of Karma that's just bad luck.
When PA xwOBA Karma wOBA K-Adj 4/2 - 4/11 28 .366 -.184 .182 .268 4/13 - 4/29 44 .378 -.038 .340 .358 4/30 - 5/6 20 .118 -.082 .036 .075 5/7 - 5/22 45 .326 .107 .433 .383 5/23 - 6/8 36 .248 -.123 .125 .183 6/10 - 6/20 37 .441 .068 .509 .477 Since 5/7 Dalbec has a .352 Karma-adjusted wOBA. That's borderline 1st-division starter at his position. Now, he will get cold again, and since we're looking here at a hot-cold-hot sandwich, we're going to want to include the numbers from his next slump if we want to get a meaningful read on where he stands. Nor do we know how long he'll stay hot, of course. But being as good as Freddie Freeman has been for the year, for a stretch of six weeks, tells you that progress is being made.
One way of looking at this: his first good-bad cluster was .269 over 92 PA, and his second was .294 over 81. So as impressive as his .383 was over 45 PA, the 17 awful days after it wiped most of it away. But as mentioned previously, he is hitting both RHP and LHP well at the same time, for the first time, and of course he's never hit this well for a stretch.
Next up: why the karma seems to be half-real. He immediately went cold. His next four games: 15 PA, .115 xwOBA, .046 wOBA.
He got two more games in before getting dinged. 7 PA, .614, .669. That he's missed time since might mess up the whole idea of this breakdown ...
But if we count 6/10 to 6/26 as a third hot / cold cycle, it's 52 PA with a .362. It's still unclear how well he hits RHP, though.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 29, 2021 17:56:51 GMT -5
Bobby Dalbec is only the 7th Red Sox player ever to reach 25 career HR in 130 games or fewer:
Bobby Dalbec Ted Williams Tony Conigliaro Brian Daubach Walt Dropo Dick Gernert Norm Zauchin
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 29, 2021 21:45:17 GMT -5
Bobby Dalbec is only the 7th Red Sox player ever to reach 25 career HR in 130 games or fewer: Bobby Dalbec Ted Williams Tony Conigliaro Brian Daubach Walt Dropo Dick Gernert Norm Zauchin Please note all those right handed first basemen who had short careers. That is the worry about Bobby.
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Post by bucksmatthew on Aug 30, 2021 8:30:56 GMT -5
Only 3 of them were right handed, and only Zauchin had a short career..... If Dalbec is Dropo or Gernert, I have to feel its a win....
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Post by ramireja on Aug 30, 2021 11:24:07 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 30, 2021 13:43:34 GMT -5
Here's his line over the last month, since Jul 29th: .333/.421/.758 ... that includes an increasing number of PAs against righthanded pitching. It's been a slog, but he's hung in there and the work seems to be paying off.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 30, 2021 13:50:00 GMT -5
Here's his line over the last month, since Jul 29th: .333/.421/.758 ... that includes an increasing number of PAs against righthanded pitching. It's been a slog, but he's hung in there and the work seems to be paying off. I think in the end he'll live or die by the BB/K ratio. That batting line is juiced a bit by a high BABIP (.375), though it would still be great if you normalized that. But the most encouraging thing, I think, is the 9% BB rate and 25% K rate over that stretch. If he can keep those numbers where they are everything else will work out.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 30, 2021 17:26:08 GMT -5
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 30, 2021 17:33:32 GMT -5
Congratulations. You have set the correct stage for the ultimate judgment of Bobby’s future usefulness.
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 30, 2021 17:36:08 GMT -5
Only 3 of them were right handed, and only Zauchin had a short career..... If Dalbec is Dropo or Gernert, I have to feel its a win.... I will give you Dropo. Gernert ultimately was not a solution. Zauchin? We used to call him “Popup”, “Strikeout”.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 1, 2021 0:01:00 GMT -5
Here's his line over the last month, since Jul 29th: .333/.421/.758 ... that includes an increasing number of PAs against righthanded pitching. It's been a slog, but he's hung in there and the work seems to be paying off. I think in the end he'll live or die by the BB/K ratio. That batting line is juiced a bit by a high BABIP (.375), though it would still be great if you normalized that. But the most encouraging thing, I think, is the 9% BB rate and 25% K rate over that stretch. If he can keep those numbers where they are everything else will work out. His expected line is .302 / .390 / .704. But the more you pull the ball and stay away from CF, the more you'll outperform that legitimately. He's hit LHP great and has been that much better against RHP. Numbers tomorrow. In the meantime, this: the MLB leader board in this period, minimum 75 PA. Rnk Name PA BA xBA OBP xOBP SA xSA wOBA xwOBA 1 Harper, Bryce 126 .323 .317 .448 .444 .758 .676 .487 .465 2 Dalbec, Bobby 79 .333 .302 .418 .390 .783 .704 .492 .458 3 García, Avisaíl 95 .304 .324 .400 .425 .620 .600 .424 .445 4 Soto, Juan 114 .310 .298 .482 .480 .512 .532 .433 .444 5 Mountcastle, R. 83 .373 .324 .410 .367 .800 .675 .492 .434 6 Springer, Geor. 84 .324 .270 .417 .380 .746 .635 .474 .426 7 Alvarez, Yordan 111 .288 .302 .333 .346 .625 .646 .400 .418 8 Correa, Carlos 114 .278 .323 .377 .415 .464 .545 .364 .415 9 Cron, C.J. 112 .357 .285 .429 .366 .745 .594 .483 .406 10 Hernández, Kik. 114 .309 .298 .421 .417 .479 .506 .391 .404 11 Donaldson, Josh 85 .289 .291 .365 .366 .539 .581 .385 .402 12 Goldschmidt, P. 124 .345 .301 .395 .360 .591 .569 .412 .397 13 Perez, Salvador 119 .274 .277 .336 .345 .679 .580 .415 .396 14 Santander, Ant. 105 .290 .309 .324 .342 .580 .585 .380 .395 15 Votto, Joey 126 .252 .254 .341 .344 .551 .611 .372 .395
Not too many slouches here.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 1, 2021 6:46:13 GMT -5
I love the way he’s been hitting lately but how on earth is somebody so bad at 1B??? 2 more errors. I don’t think we’ve had anybody come close to that total for a 1B in the last couple decades. I think he’s at 11 at 1B now
For perspective that’s how many Moreland made in his 4 year Red Sox career.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 1, 2021 7:15:26 GMT -5
I'm wondering if Dalbec is hitting and fielding his way into a trade discussion. There might still be the belief that he is better over at 3rd, and might be showing signs of a guy who be in your MLB lineup. With Casas on the horizon, getting a stop gap at 1B for a year was something many thought the Sox would be looking to do in 2022 anyways. Not that I'm advocating trading away Bobby, I like him.
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Post by patford on Sept 1, 2021 7:30:39 GMT -5
I'm wondering if Dalbec is hitting and fielding his way into a trade discussion. There might still be the belief that he is better over at 3rd, and might be showing signs of a guy who be in your MLB lineup. With Casas on the horizon, getting a stop gap at 1B for a year was something many thought the Sox would be looking to do in 2022 anyways. Not that I'm advocating trading away Bobby, I like him. Dalbec is the sort of player who fits the modern game. Teams like the Rays and Yankees have lineups full of players who don't hit for average but do hit for power and walk. In the minors drawing walks was part of Dalbec's game and it seems to be coming back.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 1, 2021 7:36:23 GMT -5
I'm wondering if Dalbec is hitting and fielding his way into a trade discussion. There might still be the belief that he is better over at 3rd, and might be showing signs of a guy who be in your MLB lineup. With Casas on the horizon, getting a stop gap at 1B for a year was something many thought the Sox would be looking to do in 2022 anyways. Not that I'm advocating trading away Bobby, I like him. Dalbec is the sort of player who fits the modern game. Teams like the Rays and Yankees have lineups full of players who don't hit for average but do hit for power and walk. In the minors drawing walks was part of Dalbec's game and it seems to be coming back. That would be a huge gamechanger for Dalbec, if he can walk more. Especially if he could be the kind of player who can draw a walk when he's in a "dry spell" to still be able to a productive hitter and not an automatic out would be ubbber beneficial for this lineup. It's the defense that really concerns me, I have a hard time beleiving he can't put in a lot of work in the offseason and improve his play there but then again you'd think a full season getting reps at 1B would have improved his play there too.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 1, 2021 8:37:44 GMT -5
Dalbec is the sort of player who fits the modern game. Teams like the Rays and Yankees have lineups full of players who don't hit for average but do hit for power and walk. In the minors drawing walks was part of Dalbec's game and it seems to be coming back. That would be a huge gamechanger for Dalbec, if he can walk more. Especially if he could be the kind of player who can draw a walk when he's in a "dry spell" to still be able to a productive hitter and not an automatic out would be ubbber beneficial for this lineup. It's the defense that really concerns me, I have a hard time beleiving he can't put in a lot of work in the offseason and improve his play there but then again you'd think a full season getting reps at 1B would have improved his play there too. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Bobby Dalbec gets traded this winter and the Sox sign a stop-gap 1b until Casas is ready. I figure they either bring back Schwarber and if JDM returns they try Schwarber at 1b until Casas is ready and then shift him to 1b or they trade Dalbec to bring in a guy with a better glove. I think his mediocre defense is what will get him traded this winter. If he hit like Schwarber they'd live with his glove, but he doesn't so I think they'll cash him in for pitching help.
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vokuhila
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Post by vokuhila on Sept 1, 2021 8:59:23 GMT -5
Dalbec is the sort of player who fits the modern game. Teams like the Rays and Yankees have lineups full of players who don't hit for average but do hit for power and walk. In the minors drawing walks was part of Dalbec's game and it seems to be coming back. That would be a huge gamechanger for Dalbec, if he can walk more. Especially if he could be the kind of player who can draw a walk when he's in a "dry spell" to still be able to a productive hitter and not an automatic out would be ubbber beneficial for this lineup. It's the defense that really concerns me, I have a hard time beleiving he can't put in a lot of work in the offseason and improve his play there but then again you'd think a full season getting reps at 1B would have improved his play there too. His BB rate is easily explained: if your OPS is .600 pitchers will just go after you, because you are not really dangerous. If your OPS is 1.200 for a month you ARE dangerous and they will have to pitch around you...leading to walks. Same goes, to lesser extent, with his K rate (down to 25% from 39%): pitchers can just get ahead by challenging mediocre hitters with a first pitch ("here hit it, if you don't I'm ahead already") putting them at a disadvantage from the start. (August first pitch strike 50% vs 59% over the season) Let's hope he found something that will help him along the way. But atm is looks like a hot streak rather than a long term improvement...I hope I'm wrong...
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2021 9:39:10 GMT -5
He has greatly risen in my esteem.
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