SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
|
Post by patford on Jul 9, 2018 8:47:37 GMT -5
Dalbec has hit for a decent average in the past and had that tremendous (and longish) hot streak at Lowell. Hopefully his average over the past year was suppressed by the wrist injury and he is now coming out of the after effects. As far as the current hitting floor for a player who can hit 30 or more HRs it is probably around .200. That would be this year's Gary Sanchez. Who isn't a good defensive player.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Jul 9, 2018 8:52:14 GMT -5
Dalbec is certainly intriguing. We now know you can strike out a ton and still manage a respectable batting average as we all wait for Aaron Judge to slide down into the .220s while he whiffs 220 times. But he's an aberration and the probability is that Dalbec is more like Joey Gallo, and winds up the truest of the three true outcomes. I think he ultimately makes it to the majors as a guy with BAs in the low .200s, even upper .100s, with 40 plus HRs/year in his best seasons and a guy who can push his OBP toward .300 with a lot of walks. I also think he ultimately does those things for another team. Dalbec is the kind of guy I would think Dombrowski would consider as surplus with Devers over at 3b for the foreseeable future. Unless Devers is forced to move to 1b or DH (unlikely), I don't see Dalbec really playing for the Red Sox, but rather as a trade chip to help the Red Sox bring back some young pitching as guys have their contracts expiring. I have higher hopes. Beyond wishful thinking there is the fact he has hit for average for extended periods of time. After he came back from the wrist injury there was a good chunk of time when he wasn't hitting at all and was also not hitting for power. That suggests he was favoring his wrist and it screwed up his swing and timing. At least I hope so.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 9, 2018 8:52:36 GMT -5
Talking about batting average for a 3 true outcome player is almost criminal. His batting average doesn't matter at all. It's only his OBP.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 9, 2018 8:58:02 GMT -5
But he's an aberration and the probability is that Dalbec is more like Joey Gallo, and winds up the truest of the three true outcomes. That's almost the best case scenario, to be honest, and a good distillation of where Dalbec stands. A lot of Gallo's value is wasted right now because he's playing first base instead of third base (where is is very good). As a 3B he's probably something like a 2.0 WAR player. So, on the one hand, he shows you can strike out 35% of the time and be average - the's the Dalbec path. On the other hand, Gallo's a plus defensive third baseman with 40-homer power and he's only average, and Dalbec doesn't quite have Gallo's power or defensive skill. EDIT: Of course, that doesn't mean he *can't* be better than Gallo. But he's absolutely not the prospect Gallo was. Talking about batting average for a 3 true outcome player is almost criminal. His batting average doesn't matter at all. It's only his OBP. Yes and no. They player's batting average itself doesn't matter, but it's almost impossible to be a productive player hitting .175. So batting average absolutely can be illustrative.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 9, 2018 9:05:56 GMT -5
Talking about batting average for a 3 true outcome player is almost criminal. His batting average doesn't matter at all. It's only his OBP. Yes and no. They player's batting average itself doesn't matter, but it's almost impossible to be a productive player hitting .175. So batting average absolutely can be illustrative. Well yeah, but a .219 batting average to go along with a .374 OBP like Bryce Harper has right now is still quite acceptable. And I've read about 100 comments on All-Star selections where people only talk about the starting all-star with a .219 batting average.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 9, 2018 9:26:37 GMT -5
Yes and no. They player's batting average itself doesn't matter, but it's almost impossible to be a productive player hitting .175. So batting average absolutely can be illustrative. Well yeah, but a .219 batting average to go along with a .374 OBP like Bryce Harper has right now is still quite acceptable. And I've read about 100 comments on All-Star selections where people only talk about the starting all-star with a .219 batting average. I think batting average matters a little but only to the extent of the OBP. If Harper was hitting .185 his OBP would be about 35 to 40 points lower and an outstanding OBP of .374 becomes merely a good to decent one of .335. And Dalbec probably wouldn't walk quite as much, so if he's closer to a .190 BA then maybe you're looking at a .290 OBP, but if he can manage .230 then his OBP becomes something like .335 which is quite acceptable. Even slugging average can be impacted a little bit by a lack of singles. Some players can push the limits of batting average not mattering at all even though it mostly doesn't matter. So the question becomes if Dalbec can't limit his Ks, how low would his BA sink? Low enough that it hinders his OBP and SA or is he able to be a high BABIP guy who can maintain a mediocre to below average BA who becomes a monster in the OPS department?
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 9, 2018 9:33:48 GMT -5
Dalbec is certainly intriguing. We now know you can strike out a ton and still manage a respectable batting average as we all wait for Aaron Judge to slide down into the .220s while he whiffs 220 times. But he's an aberration and the probability is that Dalbec is more like Joey Gallo, and winds up the truest of the three true outcomes. I think he ultimately makes it to the majors as a guy with BAs in the low .200s, even upper .100s, with 40 plus HRs/year in his best seasons and a guy who can push his OBP toward .300 with a lot of walks. I also think he ultimately does those things for another team. Dalbec is the kind of guy I would think Dombrowski would consider as surplus with Devers over at 3b for the foreseeable future. Unless Devers is forced to move to 1b or DH (unlikely), I don't see Dalbec really playing for the Red Sox, but rather as a trade chip to help the Red Sox bring back some young pitching as guys have their contracts expiring. I have higher hopes. Beyond wishful thinking there is the fact he has hit for average for extended periods of time. After he came back from the wrist injury there was a good chunk of time when he wasn't hitting at all and was also not hitting for power. That suggests he was favoring his wrist and it screwed up his swing and timing. At least I hope so. I understand that he lit up his league initially and only really, really struggled when he had a legit reason - he was injured. But he does whiff a ton. And that can be hard to curtail as he goes up to deal with more advanced pitching. Doesn't mean that he can't improve though. I think like Henry Owens' performance was ultimately going to hinge on whether he could control the walks or not, Dalbec's performance will hinge upon whether he can cut the Ks enough to a point where it's not a major hindrance. The bar to lower the Ks enough isn't as high as it used to be, which is good news for him. Still hard to hit for a respectable average when whiffing over 200 times/year, but like I said, these days the league hits .245, not .265 and it compensates with power which Dalbec has, but if he can't get the Ks under control it will totally impact his ability to even have a below average BA. Like I said, Aaron Judge seems to be the only guy who can whiff a ton and still flirt with .300. His BABIP skills are off the charts. Hard to expect that of most people or Dalbec, too.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 9, 2018 9:47:50 GMT -5
Right, as James is trying to say, the issue is not "he strikes out a lot." It's that he's striking out so much that it portends major issues that will be exposed higher up the ladder. For reference:
Players slugging >.500 and K% > 25% in MLB in 2017 (plus Dalbec of course, and Chris Davis since he's mentioned above), at High A: Bobby Dalbec, 23 yo: 340 PA, .249/.362/.548, 19 HR, 30.9% K% Joey Gallo, 20 yo: 246 PA, .323/.463/.735, 21 HR, 26.0% K% Chris Davis, 21 yo: 418 PA, .298/.340/.573, 24 HR, 29.4% K% (California Lg) Khris Davis, 23 yo: 371 PA, .309/.415/.533, 15 HR, 18.9% K% Aaron Judge, 22 yo: 285 PA, .283/.411/.442, 8 HR, 25.3% K% Eric Thames, 22 yo: 220 PA, .313/.386/.487, 3 HR, 18.2% K% Justin Upton, 19 yo: 150 PA, .341/.433/.540, 5 HR, 18.7% K% (California Lg) Domingo Santana, 19 yo: 525 PA, .302/.385/.536, 23 HR, 28.2% (California Lg) Cody Bellinger, 19 yo: 544 PA, .264/.336/.538, 30 HR, 27.5% (California Lg)
So if we're being honest, the only ones who Dalbec compares favorably to are Chris Davis, who has had an extremely up-and-down career, and Cody Bellinger, who has crashed back to earth this season after his great 2017. Maybe you could say Santana but I don't think so given the age difference. Dalbec hit for a lot more power than Judge, Thames, and Upton, but all got on base at a much higher clip, Thames had to go to Korea for a few years to figure things out, and Upton had a bit of an atypical power spike last year after last slugging over .500 in 2011 (i.e., he's not really the kind of hitter we're talking about here). And perhaps this will seem like a cop out, but Judge's development curve is so atypical that it's not really something you can use as an example for anything other than "well, you never know, I guess" if you're being honest.
It's not as easy as saying "power + strikeouts? He can be Joey Gallo!". Gallo destroyed the Carolina League at a much younger age while striking out less. Dalbec's only hitting .249 with a BABIP comfortably above .300, and that's after a week in which he was so hot he raised his slash line to what you see above from .222/.345/.475 on July 2 (31.6% K rate). A week ago, this is barely even a discussion.
To be clear, I'm not saying he's hopeless or anything, just that he'll probably need to fix the strikeout issue to an exceptional degree to become the type of MLB hitter who will be able to get to his power at that level enough for the strikeouts to not be a problem.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 9, 2018 10:14:21 GMT -5
I think like Henry Owens' performance was ultimately going to hinge on whether he could control the walks or not, Dalbec's performance will hinge upon whether he can cut the Ks enough to a point where it's not a major hindrance. The bar to lower the Ks enough isn't as high as it used to be, which is good news for him. Still hard to hit for a respectable average when whiffing over 200 times/year, but like I said, these days the league hits .245, not .265 and it compensates with power which Dalbec has, but if he can't get the Ks under control it will totally impact his ability to even have a below average BA. Like I said, Aaron Judge seems to be the only guy who can whiff a ton and still flirt with .300. His BABIP skills are off the charts. Hard to expect that of most people or Dalbec, too. So, I feel bad hammering Henry Owens too much, because we all kind of talked ourselves into Henry Owens, but I don't think Dalbec is similar at all. With Owens, people convinced themselves that his significant flaws weren't actually significant and that he was some wizard who would be the first ever pitcher to combine below-average velocity and below-average command into major league success because his changeup was good. When people would bring up Owens' flaws, they'd bring up other players who had similar flaws--but those player didn't have similar SKILLS as Owens. Like "Nolan Ryan walked too many guys too!" Sure, but Nolan Ryan threw 102 and is basically the only pitcher in history without a times-through-the-order penalty. "Greg Maddux didn't throw hard either!" Sure, but Maddux threw harder than Owens and had the best command I've ever seen." When you're comparing a player's flaws without regard to skills, you're just wishing. And I probably shouldn't use a passive second-person there, because I was guilty of it to some degree. With Dalbec the comps are players similar to Dalbec, both in flaw and skill, so I think it helps people be a bit more realistic about him and his path and what he needs to do to succeed. So in that sense, I'd say he's more like a Michael Kopech or a Will Middlebrooks or a Christian Vazquez - players whose selling tools are clearly, unquestionably of major league quality, but whose weaknesses might prevent them from fully tapping into those tools. And that's useful! Vazquez's skills turned him into a playable major leaguer despite his flaws. Middlebrooks went the other way, where his skills were too exploitable (is that a word) and he just couldn't even hit a mediocre changeup. Jury is still out on Kopech, and it's been a mixed bag at Triple-A this year.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 9, 2018 10:26:06 GMT -5
]So, I feel bad hammering Henry Owens too much, because we all kind of talked ourselves into Henry Owens, but I don't think Dalbec is similar at all. With Owens, people convinced themselves that his significant flaws weren't actually significant and that he was some wizard who would be the first ever pitcher to combine below-average velocity and below-average command into major league success because his changeup was good. When people would bring up Owens' flaws, they'd bring up other players who had similar flaws--but those player didn't have similar SKILLS as Owens. Like "Nolan Ryan walked too many guys too!" Sure, but Nolan Ryan threw 102 and is basically the only pitcher in history without a times-through-the-order penalty. "Greg Maddux didn't throw hard either!" Sure, but Maddux threw harder than Owens and had the best command I've ever seen." When you're comparing a player's flaws without regard to skills, you're just wishing. And I probably shouldn't use a passive second-person there, because I was guilty of it to some degree. Remember how his fastball was actually 98 because DECEPTION?
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 9, 2018 10:33:39 GMT -5
]So, I feel bad hammering Henry Owens too much, because we all kind of talked ourselves into Henry Owens, but I don't think Dalbec is similar at all. With Owens, people convinced themselves that his significant flaws weren't actually significant and that he was some wizard who would be the first ever pitcher to combine below-average velocity and below-average command into major league success because his changeup was good. When people would bring up Owens' flaws, they'd bring up other players who had similar flaws--but those player didn't have similar SKILLS as Owens. Like "Nolan Ryan walked too many guys too!" Sure, but Nolan Ryan threw 102 and is basically the only pitcher in history without a times-through-the-order penalty. "Greg Maddux didn't throw hard either!" Sure, but Maddux threw harder than Owens and had the best command I've ever seen." When you're comparing a player's flaws without regard to skills, you're just wishing. And I probably shouldn't use a passive second-person there, because I was guilty of it to some degree. Remember how his fastball was actually 98 because DECEPTION? Quiz time! The Summer of Effective Velocity is: _____ That time in 2015 when people talked themselves into Henry Owens' control/stuff combo actually being okay _____ A Top-five Steely Dan record _____ Hopefully both ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDIT: One thing I just thought of favoring a Dalbec promotion within the month: he's one of several players currently with Salem (along with Chatham, Cooney, Raudes if he's healthy, maybe Netzer) who I could see them wanting to send to the AFL.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 9, 2018 11:38:51 GMT -5
Right, as James is trying to say, the issue is not "he strikes out a lot." It's that he's striking out so much that it portends major issues that will be exposed higher up the ladder. For reference: Players slugging >.500 and K% > 25% in MLB in 2017 (plus Dalbec of course, and Chris Davis since he's mentioned above), at High A: Bobby Dalbec, 23 yo: 340 PA, .249/.362/.548, 19 HR, 30.9% K% Joey Gallo, 20 yo: 246 PA, .323/.463/.735, 21 HR, 26.0% K% Chris Davis, 21 yo: 418 PA, .298/.340/.573, 24 HR, 29.4% K% (California Lg) Khris Davis, 23 yo: 371 PA, .309/.415/.533, 15 HR, 18.9% K% Aaron Judge, 22 yo: 285 PA, .283/.411/.442, 8 HR, 25.3% K% Eric Thames, 22 yo: 220 PA, .313/.386/.487, 3 HR, 18.2% K% Justin Upton, 19 yo: 150 PA, .341/.433/.540, 5 HR, 18.7% K% (California Lg) Domingo Santana, 19 yo: 525 PA, .302/.385/.536, 23 HR, 28.2% (California Lg) Cody Bellinger, 19 yo: 544 PA, .264/.336/.538, 30 HR, 27.5% (California Lg) So if we're being honest, the only ones who Dalbec compares favorably to are Chris Davis, who has had an extremely up-and-down career, and Cody Bellinger, who has crashed back to earth this season after his great 2017. Maybe you could say Santana but I don't think so given the age difference. Dalbec hit for a lot more power than Judge, Thames, and Upton, but all got on base at a much higher clip, Thames had to go to Korea for a few years to figure things out, and Upton had a bit of an atypical power spike last year after last slugging over .500 in 2011 (i.e., he's not really the kind of hitter we're talking about here). And perhaps this will seem like a cop out, but Judge's development curve is so atypical that it's not really something you can use as an example for anything other than "well, you never know, I guess" if you're being honest. It's not as easy as saying "power + strikeouts? He can be Joey Gallo!". Gallo destroyed the Carolina League at a much younger age while striking out less. Dalbec's only hitting .249 with a BABIP comfortably above .300, and that's after a week in which he was so hot he raised his slash line to what you see above from .222/.345/.475 on July 2 (31.6% K rate). A week ago, this is barely even a discussion. To be clear, I'm not saying he's hopeless or anything, just that he'll probably need to fix the strikeout issue to an exceptional degree to become the type of MLB hitter who will be able to get to his power at that level enough for the strikeouts to not be a problem. An unfortunate thing about this list is that Dalbec is both the oldest (or same age as Khris Davis) and has the highest K%. Considering you purposely selected guys in the majors with some of the worst contact issues, thats a not a great combo for Dalbec. I agree, he's not hopeless, but its clear to me this is still an uphill battle.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Jul 9, 2018 11:41:55 GMT -5
I always thought it was just Pretzel Logic, a big Royal Scam. For some, however, it was the start of a Countdown to Ecstasy. Now, they Can't But Thrill.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 9, 2018 11:51:36 GMT -5
I think like Henry Owens' performance was ultimately going to hinge on whether he could control the walks or not, Dalbec's performance will hinge upon whether he can cut the Ks enough to a point where it's not a major hindrance. The bar to lower the Ks enough isn't as high as it used to be, which is good news for him. Still hard to hit for a respectable average when whiffing over 200 times/year, but like I said, these days the league hits .245, not .265 and it compensates with power which Dalbec has, but if he can't get the Ks under control it will totally impact his ability to even have a below average BA. Like I said, Aaron Judge seems to be the only guy who can whiff a ton and still flirt with .300. His BABIP skills are off the charts. Hard to expect that of most people or Dalbec, too. So, I feel bad hammering Henry Owens too much, because we all kind of talked ourselves into Henry Owens, but I don't think Dalbec is similar at all. With Owens, people convinced themselves that his significant flaws weren't actually significant and that he was some wizard who would be the first ever pitcher to combine below-average velocity and below-average command into major league success because his changeup was good. When people would bring up Owens' flaws, they'd bring up other players who had similar flaws--but those player didn't have similar SKILLS as Owens. Like "Nolan Ryan walked too many guys too!" Sure, but Nolan Ryan threw 102 and is basically the only pitcher in history without a times-through-the-order penalty. "Greg Maddux didn't throw hard either!" Sure, but Maddux threw harder than Owens and had the best command I've ever seen." When you're comparing a player's flaws without regard to skills, you're just wishing. And I probably shouldn't use a passive second-person there, because I was guilty of it to some degree. With Dalbec the comps are players similar to Dalbec, both in flaw and skill, so I think it helps people be a bit more realistic about him and his path and what he needs to do to succeed. So in that sense, I'd say he's more like a Michael Kopech or a Will Middlebrooks or a Christian Vazquez - players whose selling tools are clearly, unquestionably of major league quality, but whose weaknesses might prevent them from fully tapping into those tools. And that's useful! Vazquez's skills turned him into a playable major leaguer despite his flaws. Middlebrooks went the other way, where his skills were too exploitable (is that a word) and he just couldn't even hit a mediocre changeup. Jury is still out on Kopech, and it's been a mixed bag at Triple-A this year. Yeah, Owens was not a good example to reach for when I was talking about the impact of controlling his walks being the key to everything. I should have gone to Nook LaLoosh (although the best real life guy would probably be a guy most people never heard of - Steve Dalkowski). Now he had an arm and the character Nook LaLoosh was loosely based off of him. With Owens there was always those flirtations with no-hitters he had in the minors which can make one think that he must be really hard to hit and if he'd just stop walking people (or lessen it), he'd continue to be hard to hit in the majors and wouldn't kill himself with walks, but of course the tools he had weren't that great either since he really didn't have velocity.
|
|
|
Post by azblue on Jul 9, 2018 12:07:20 GMT -5
My recollection is that Dalbec's K rate has dropped significantly during the past several weeks. It was around 40% early in the season and now is down to 30%. That is encouraging. I am sure that some of you numbers guys can confirm if my memory is correct.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 9, 2018 12:12:37 GMT -5
Since the beginning of June, Dablec is hitting .292/.382/.642 with a 29.9% k rate. That'a a .350 ISO.
I think the main source of positivity is that he reduced his k-rate from 37.4% in Greenville to 30.9% this year in Salem along with a huge increase in power. He's definitely heading in the right direction.
|
|
Addam603
Veteran
Posts: 3,199
Member is Online
|
Post by Addam603 on Jul 9, 2018 12:15:44 GMT -5
My recollection is that Dalbec's K rate has dropped significantly during the past several weeks. It was around 40% early in the season and now is down to 30%. That is encouraging. I am sure that some of you numbers guys can confirm if my memory is correct. April: 33.3% May: 30.0% June: 32.1% July (8 games): 22.9%
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 9, 2018 13:18:14 GMT -5
One thing I just thought of favoring a Dalbec promotion within the month: he's one of several players currently with Salem (along with Chatham, Cooney, Raudes if he's healthy, maybe Netzer) who I could see them wanting to send to the AFL. Raudes is done for the year. We'd seen a Spanish article saying he got an injection in his elbow that we're assuming was PRP, and Ben mentioned it when I was on the Salem broadcast with him the other night. Also, I don't think that "only one guy below AA" rule applies anymore. In 2016, they sent both Kopech and Callahan when neither had been up to Portland yet, for example. ( soxprospects.com/fall-winter2016.htm ) It was kind of a silly rule anyway, because it gave teams incentive to just do what you suggest above, and there's no reason not to trust teams to send guys who are appropriately ready for the circuit. And not to derail the thread on a tangent, but Chavis seems to be the most obvious AFL guy given the at-bats he needs to make up and his importance, and I wonder how that affects who else they send. There's no overlap with Chatham, so he still makes sense, but can they send two guys who they might want getting time at the same position? I honestly don't know the answer. Since the beginning of June, Dablec is hitting .292/.382/.642 with a 29.9% k rate. That'a a .350 ISO. I think the main source of positivity is that he reduced his k-rate from 37.4% in Greenville to 30.9% this year in Salem along with a huge increase in power. He's definitely heading in the right direction. If we're doing the trend line exercise, should we ignore the 23% K rate in Lowell in 2016? If anything, it's an upward trend over his full pro career if we're drawing it as a line. Not that we should. He's had a couple of stretches this year where he's cut down on the strikeouts, and he's gone off in both (ARBITRARY ENDPOINTS ALERT!): Thru 5/23: 41 G, 172 PA, .204/.337/.451, 8 HR, 59 K, 34.3% K rate 5/25-6/7: 12 G, 52 PA, .286/.404/.714, 5 HR, 7 K, 13.5% K rate6/8-6/28: 19 G, 77 PA, .222/.338/.349, 1 HR, 30 K, 39.0% K rate 6/29-7/8: 9 G, 39 PA, .441/.462/1.118, 5 HR, 9 K, 23.0% K rate (Admittedly, it's a bit harder to figure out where to start this recent stretch, he had a 2-4, 2B, HR game on 6/29, then went 0-3 twice, one of those with 2 K's, then has been scalding hot since 7/3: 6 G, 27 PA, .542/.556/1.333, 4 HR, 6 K, 22.2% K rate) So you can look at this differently depending on your perspective: Glass half-full: the guy we all would like him to be is in there and he just needs to figure it out Hey, a glass of water: Dalbec might be a bit streaky and needs to work on limiting the long stretches of strikeouts while extending the periods where he crushes Glass half-empty: Dalbec is what he is, but for a week or two at a time it clicks and he turns into an offensive force It's tough to know.
|
|
|
Post by benjgc on Jul 9, 2018 13:52:33 GMT -5
One thing I thought I'd chime in with, as there's a lot of mentions of Dalbec being 23: this is his third pro season, and the first that hasn't been a half-year due to injury or the draft. While I concede that his college experience should have put him on a faster timeline, I think we'd all agree that lost time due to injury and lack of reps can really hinder a prospect's development. As somebody who's seen every game he's played this season, and his performance relative to the other players and teams in the league, I remain very bullish on his future.
|
|
|
Post by drrigormortis on Jul 10, 2018 16:08:08 GMT -5
As someone who has watched all of Bobby Dalbec's college games at Arizona, I'd like to add some of my own observations. To answer the question regarding his sustainable ceiling as a hitter, a look further back into his college days might provide some perspective.
When Bobby joined Arizona Baseball as part of the 2013 recruiting class, the program was in disarray. HOF coach Andy Lopez underwent bypass surgery in the fall of the same year and his assistants failed to maintain a reasonable level of discipline inside the clubhouse. While players like Dalbec (fr), Phillies' Scott Kingery (so) and Pirates #6 prospect Kevin Newman (so) didn't pose any problems, Texans #2 prospect Willie Calhoun got kicked out of the program for "disciplinary" issues after his 2014 freshman season. Due to HC Lopez's absence, Arizona's hitters got coached by his assistants during 2013 fall ball. Bobby later hit .255/.333/.355 in his rather chaotic inaugural Pac-12 season. He also had to pitch 38.0 innings in relief, since Arizona's pitching staff at the time was a dumpster fire. He'd get pulled off 3B to come in cold and finish games on the mound.
Practice and preparation for the 2015 season was conducted by coach Andy Lopez again. It would be his last season at the helm of the program. As a sophomore, Bobby hit .319/.410/.601, including 15 HRs, against some of the best pitchers in college baseball. His swing was smooth and consistent and he didn't reveal any major flaws or weaknesses. He looked like a sure first-rounder, even though his pitching load had increased considerably to 61.2 innings, including seven starts.
After the 2015 season disaster struck. When Andy Lopez got (rightfully) fired, the program hired Nevada HC Jay Johnson, a former assistant at the University of San Diego. He introduced himself as the man who had coached Kris Bryant, even though that wasn't even half the truth. However, he's the source of the Dalbec vs. Kris Bryant comparisons.
Facing his third hitting coach in as many seasons, Dalbec was coaxed by Johnson, who wanted to prove himself, to change his swing. With disastrous results. Bobby's average dropped to .260, below his freshman mark, and he suddenly had problems hitting breaking balls and off-speed pitches. Simultaneously, his workload on the mound increased to 95.0 innings, including seven starts and the usual emergency relief appearances. Despite his draft stock dropping, Bobby sacrificed himself to the benefit of Arizona Baseball. He never complained, never sulked and always delivered. Along with Tito, one of the most remarkable players in Arizona program history.
Bobby stated in an interview that he had gone back to his old swing after leaving college, which explains his performance in Lowell. With his hamate injury spoiling most of his 2017 season, he probably pressed too hard to make up for lost time, as he admitted in an interview with MiLB.com. His surge over the past weeks might, hopefully, be a sign that he's back with the process. Dalbec can hit very well throughout a whole season. I've seen it with my own eyes. Outside of his chaotic and demanding college career as a two-way player, his biggest enemies now are most likely his self-expectations.
The future. If he manages to relax and let the game come to him, the way he did during his college sophomore season and at Lowell, his BA should improve considerably. He's not a .200 hitter under normal circumstances. As with most power hitters, a certain amount of strikeouts will always be there. At least he's clutch enough to lead A+ with 70 RBI, so that's good. Besides, I'll take a strikeout over GIDP any day of the week. Whether he'll make the Majors in a Red Sox uniform, remains to be seen, given the log jam at his position. But he could become a viable trade chip, should his positive trajectory continue. I'd like to see him finish the season in Salem. He could use a stable situation to find back into his groove and gain the necessary confidence, something he wasn't able to enjoy much since the start of his collegiate career. It's way too early to give up on a player like Dalbec. He's battled adversity since college and should be able to adjust.
Btw., during an Arizona vs. USD game at this year's Tony Gwynn Classic college baseball tournament in San Diego, organizer and USD sportscaster, Jack Murray, said about current Arizona coach and former USD assistant Jay Johnson: "The best thing he did for the program was to not mess up Kris Bryant and accept his father, Mike, as his coach." So much for Johnson's prowess as a hitting coach.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,154
|
Post by radiohix on Jul 10, 2018 16:14:35 GMT -5
Insightful, Thanks! You should be commenting more, welcome
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Jul 10, 2018 16:26:30 GMT -5
Fascinating piece. Thank you! I can only judge minor league players by the stats and by scouting reports from people who have pretty good records. That includes the Sox Prospects people as well as some of the posters who are able to watch some of the players. I think Dalbec has the potential to be a superior major league player. However, I think he could move through the system faster, and would be more valuable, if he was switched to 1B. The Sox are limited in prospects at that position and they are going to need a 1B before very long.
But there is a problem with that idea. Chavis also is a 3B and he is ahead of of Dalbec but from what I have read, Dalbec is a better fielder. That may mean that Chavis gets moved to 1B. It is very unlikely that either Dalbec or Chavis is going to push Devers off 3B.
Most likely, one of these two will play in the majors for another team.
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,652
|
Post by gerry on Jul 10, 2018 16:37:59 GMT -5
Insightful, Thanks! You should be commenting more, welcome Agreed. We often discuss on here how prospect development is simply not linear. Yet we are often quick to dismiss developing players who appear to be stalled. Thank you for the backstory on Dalbec. I will continue to pull for him as he stabilizes himself.
|
|
|
Post by benjgc on Jul 10, 2018 16:38:27 GMT -5
Fascinating piece. Thank you! I can only judge minor league players by the stats and by scouting reports from people who have pretty good records. That includes the Sox Prospects people as well as some of the posters who are able to watch some of the players. I think Dalbec has the potential to be a superior major league player. However, I think he could move through the system faster, and would be more valuable, if he was switched to 1B. The Sox are limited in prospects at that position and they are going to need a 1B before very long. But there is a problem with that idea. Chavis also is a 3B and he is ahead of of Dalbec but from what I have read, Dalbec is a better fielder. That may mean that Chavis gets moved to 1B. It is very unlikely that either Dalbec or Chavis is going to push Devers off 3B. Most likely, one of these two will play in the majors for another team. If you move Dalbec off 3B, you're losing the best defensive 3B prospect in the organization. He's been part of 10 more double plays than any other CL third baseman. His arm is fantastic, his actions are fluid, and he's only going to get better with more reps.
|
|
|
Post by splendidsplinter on Jul 10, 2018 16:56:09 GMT -5
Another thanks for your insight. Too often prospects are treate as statistical buckets. Each one has a story and is a real person. They all have dreams and live for that chance of the show. Most will fail, of course, and it is safer to point out flaws than point out hope. Not that it matters, but my hope is we could be a bit more positive about our prospects.
|
|
|