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Post by sittingstill on Jul 21, 2020 13:18:12 GMT -5
He's pretty solidly built... unknown photographer, from Reddit Sorry to be late to the party, but... unknown photographer, my ass.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 21, 2020 13:42:48 GMT -5
He's pretty solidly built... unknown photographer, from Reddit Sorry to be late to the party, but... unknown photographer, my ass. Sorry about that but if I put unknown photographer, it was because it wasn't shown wherever I found it. I also likely wouldn't have put that on a run of the mill photo.
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Post by sittingstill on Jul 21, 2020 16:59:19 GMT -5
Sorry about that but if I put unknown photographer, it was because it wasn't shown wherever I found it. I also likely wouldn't have put that on a run of the mill photo. My annoyance is directed at the person who put my photo on Reddit uncredited, not at you.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 21, 2020 18:34:12 GMT -5
Sorry about that but if I put unknown photographer, it was because it wasn't shown wherever I found it. I also likely wouldn't have put that on a run of the mill photo. My annoyance is directed at the person who put my photo on Reddit uncredited, not at you. I don't have Reddit so I would have found it by Google images. This was probably the one: https://www.reddit.com/r/mlb/comments/f7dass/just_found_out_there_is_a_player_for_red_sox/ Posted byu/Frazer271009 5 months ago
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 13, 2020 12:09:18 GMT -5
Folks at MLBTR were talking about Duran's timetable (as a side discussion on re-signing JBJ) and it reminded me of a comp for his fielding ... this is based on a comment I posted there.
One of my favorite moments working for the Sox was when Jed Hoyer told me his outside-the-box solution for replacing Johnny Damon -- I'm guessing this was in early August of '05. Coco Crisp, of course.
Now, this was not obvious, because Crisp had unimpressive stats in CF. But his LF numbers were amazing, and you could project the former from the latter.
Crisp was just ordinary his first year in CF for us and then he blossomed into an amazing defender. We all understand that running routes is a skill you need to learn, but here was evidence that it can take longer than you might think.
So how long did it take Crisp? Just 100 games in the minors, and then about 280 in MLB. His numbers jumped up between seasons dramatically, which suggests further work in the off-season and
especially in ST.
Duran had 240 games in CF coming into this year, plus an unknown amount of experience at the ATS; let's call that 20 games worth. If he's on Crisp's timetable, that's about 120 more games that he needs, plus the equivalent of ST and off-season work in 2006 and 2007 (some of which he's already had).
A reasonable expectation, then, would be for Duran to flash some plus defense late this year, if he gets a chance, and blossom into a plus defender in 2022 -- which is probably a good guess for when his bat would be ready, too. So if there are mid-season reports this year that his route-running is still a work-in-progress, that's actually not unexpected.
Can anyone think of another comp, a guy who was converted to CF while in MLB (in the UZR era, 2003 on) and who had the tools to excel there? I actually think that's fairly rare.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 13, 2020 16:29:43 GMT -5
Folks at MLBTR were talking about Duran's timetable (as a side discussion on re-signing JBJ) and it reminded me of a comp for his fielding ... this is based on a comment I posted there.
...
Can anyone think of another comp, a guy who was converted to CF while in MLB (in the UZR era, 2003 on) and who had the tools to excel there? I actually think that's fairly rare.
In MLB or MiLB?
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Post by blumj on Nov 13, 2020 17:12:20 GMT -5
Ican'tresist playing the duran duran song s every time I come here httu.be/eiUYA0fo1EM
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 13, 2020 18:54:03 GMT -5
Folks at MLBTR were talking about Duran's timetable (as a side discussion on re-signing JBJ) and it reminded me of a comp for his fielding ... this is based on a comment I posted there.
...
Can anyone think of another comp, a guy who was converted to CF while in MLB (in the UZR era, 2003 on) and who had the tools to excel there? I actually think that's fairly rare.
In MLB or MiLB? In MLB, so we can track his defensive improvement with UZR and DRS. We have very little in the way of defensive numbers for MiLB.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 13, 2020 22:05:10 GMT -5
In MLB, so we can track his defensive improvement with UZR and DRS. We have very little in the way of defensive numbers for MiLB. Rick Ankiel The sample is relatively limited but he peaked as a plus defender in CF in his age 31 season with Washington. Defense took off dramatically once moved from KC to Atlanta, which was after about 200 MLB appearances in CF. This happened the year prior to his season in Washington. It wasn’t a long peak for him (can possibly attribute that to his athletic prime coming to an end) but the improvement was noticeable Weird case as he converted from pitcher though lol
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 14, 2020 1:06:05 GMT -5
Craig Biggio comes to mind. He was a catcher originally. I think he wound up in CF at some point before spending the rest of his time as a 2b.
I believe Dale Murphy was a catcher at some point early in his career too and wound up in CF when he won his 2 MVP awards.
Robin Yount spent the first half of his career as a SS before moving to CF for the second half of his career.
Rickey Henderson started out as a LF and played the majority of his career in LF. He eventually wound up in CF for the Yankees in the mid-80s.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 14, 2020 3:05:09 GMT -5
In MLB, so we can track his defensive improvement with UZR and DRS. We have very little in the way of defensive numbers for MiLB. Rick Ankiel The sample is relatively limited but he peaked as a plus defender in CF in his age 31 season with Washington. Defense took off dramatically once moved from KC to Atlanta, which was after about 200 MLB appearances in CF. This happened the year prior to his season in Washington. It wasn’t a long peak for him (can possibly attribute that to his athletic prime coming to an end) but the improvement was noticeable Weird case as he converted from pitcher though lol Ankiel had 101 GS in CF in the minors and then the equivalent of 217 games in MLB (using innings), and 3 years off-seasons followed by ST. That's 318 games plus 3 winter / springs, versus Crisp's c. 380 with one off-season and 2 ST. It's certainly in the same ballpark.
Yount and Murphy converted well before the UZR / DRS era. By Total Zone, Murphy was a plus defender immediately. But Yount got dramatically better (from awful to OK) after 320 games plus 2 off-seasons. Biggio played one year in CF at age 37 and wasn't very good.
If anything, Ankiel and Yount seemed to learn a bit quicker than Crisp, so that gives extra reason to believe that Duran can be a plus defender with one more year of work.
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Post by kevfc89 on Jan 23, 2021 21:14:23 GMT -5
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 24, 2021 1:07:36 GMT -5
What is the earliest Duran could reasonably be in Boston? His speed will be really fun.
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Post by unitspin on Jan 24, 2021 8:36:43 GMT -5
Id say he needs at least a half of season in AAA. But who knows if in ST he shows the goods, they could take a shot with him.
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Post by kevfc89 on Jan 24, 2021 17:22:10 GMT -5
anotha one, our guy is hot!
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 24, 2021 18:21:29 GMT -5
That one was tanked
Guys got some sneaky pop
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 24, 2021 18:38:55 GMT -5
That one was tanked Guys got some sneaky pop He’s kinda huge looking. I wonder if he is the next Brady Anderson... a speed guy who gets more and more powerful. (And no, that is meant 100% innocently... not implying anything with the comparison other than recalling a former Sox prospect).
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 24, 2021 18:46:22 GMT -5
That one was tanked Guys got some sneaky pop He’s kinda huge looking. I wonder if he is the next Brady Anderson... a speed guy who gets more and more powerful. (And no, that is meant 100% innocently... not implying anything with the comparison other than recalling a former Sox prospect). He's got the build and the swing of Yellich. Not saying he's the next Yellich, but he's gotten really strong in a year. He went from 4th outfielder type, to a guy you might dream on to win some MVP votes someday.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 24, 2021 21:43:29 GMT -5
Vic Tanny forearms....or are they Popeye's?
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 24, 2021 22:00:51 GMT -5
Vic Tanny forearms....or are they Popeye's? It is interesting to look at the picture in this thread and the one on his prospect page... granted that is him in motion, but he looks to me to be much, much smaller.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 24, 2021 22:15:16 GMT -5
He's filled out, for sure.
Keep in mind that the above is spring training and the player page photo is in Lowell, after he's played a full college season as well. I'd think that he'd probably be a bit thicker coming off of training in the offseason than at the end of the year.
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CMF
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Post by CMF on Feb 3, 2021 2:29:50 GMT -5
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 3, 2021 2:53:55 GMT -5
You give them each 3-5 more seconds of running and Duran catches the guy who scored
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Post by tyler3 on Feb 3, 2021 3:08:11 GMT -5
Jesus, and if you watch after he hits it..not like he immediately breaks out of the box..you see him watching for a sec and then the next shot he is just tear adding it half way past 1st. Sheesh...I really hope he has a good year a AAA. Just gonna be so fun to watch if all works out.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 3, 2021 10:57:38 GMT -5
Jesus, and if you watch after he hits it..not like he immediately breaks out of the box..you see him watching for a sec and then the next shot he is just tear adding it half way past 1st. Sheesh...I really hope he has a good year a AAA. Just gonna be so fun to watch if all works out. "que velocidad!"
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