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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Feb 20, 2021 15:59:10 GMT -5
I had previously mentioned a Sizemore comp for Duran in his body and my hopes for a Sizemore-lite kind of future skillset for Duran (though I'd guess more speed, less power), and in his press conference today Cora when asked about Duran said:
"You know what, I always talked about Jacoby, but Enrique Rojas during the Caribbean series, he mentioned Grady Sizemore. And I was like whoa, because Grady was stronger you know...I was like, that's a good one, that's a good one."
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 20, 2021 22:56:31 GMT -5
theathletic.com/2394456/2021/02/19/gammons-jarren-duran-red-sox/?source=weeklyemailsnippet from Gammons "Bradley is a significant loss. In Hall of Famer Ken Harrelson’s first year broadcasting, 1975, he talked about how that team won the pennant because of Fred Lynn and Dwight Evans in center and right. In 50 years covering the team, I’ve come to appreciate that center and right, with all their walls and nooks and crannies, are exceptionally difficult to play. Especially right. Go back through the last 45 years: When the Red Sox have been really good, they’ve been exceptional in center and right. 1975 and 1978: Lynn and Evans. 1986: Dave Henderson and Evans. 2003-4: Johnny Damon and a Trot Nixon-Gabe Kapler combo. 2007: Ellsbury and J.D. Drew. 2013: Ellsbury and Shane Victorino, who was sensational. 2018: Bradley and Betts, the best of all. Right now, the plan is to have Alex Verdugo in center and a lot of Hunter Renfroe in right. Verdugo played all the angles of that right field exceptionally in the 60-game season, so if, in time, Duran is in center and Verdugo goes back to the corner, it may work out well." It’s not insignificant that both Verdugo and Renfroe are fine fielders. I think we will see Them in CF and RF. It will be interesting to se how they settle into the field. It obviously won’t be betts and Bradley, but I’m thinking there defence won’t be the Sox biggest issue.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 21, 2021 1:22:48 GMT -5
Wasn’t there serious talk about Cordero/Renfroe in LF, Hernandez in CF and Verdugo in RF? (Marwin/Arroyo at 2B). That looked to provide good gloves and arms and optimize offense. When did that change??
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 21, 2021 2:07:27 GMT -5
Wasn’t there serious talk about Cordero/Renfroe in LF, Hernandez in CF and Verdugo in RF? (Marwin/Arroyo at 2B). That looked to provide good gloves and arms and optimize offense. When did that change?? Who knows what the team is planing. It’s entirely possible that they are still undecided. On too of that, I’m pretty sure we are going to see some different rosters from day to day and in game switching. More than just L/R split. However, I’m pretty sure we are going to see Hernandez as the starter in 2B and Verdugo in CF. On top of that I’m expecting Renfroe in RF when he starts. I’d say Marwin plays all over. I’m just going on a hunch and what I think they will do. Party basing on what Cora and Bloom have inferred and partly my feeling.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 21, 2021 3:29:49 GMT -5
Wasnât there serious talk about Cordero/Renfroe in LF, Hernandez in CF and Verdugo in RF? (Marwin/Arroyo at 2B). That looked to provide good gloves and arms and optimize offense. When did that change?? Who knows what the team is planing. Itâs entirely possible that they are still undecided. On too of that, Iâm pretty sure we are going to see some different rosters from day to day and in game switching. More than just L/R split. However, Iâm pretty sure we are going to see Hernandez as the starter in 2B and Verdugo in CF. On top of that Iâm expecting Renfroe in RF when he starts. Iâd say Marwin plays all over. Iâm just going on a hunch and what I think they will do. Party basing on what Cora and Bloom have inferred and partly my feeling. On Friday Julian McWilliams reported in the Globe that, according to Cora, it wasn't a given that Kiké was the starting 2B. "If everything goes well, on a nightly basis, he'll play second at one point during the game. If he starts in the outfield, probably, he'll end up playing second base, because defensively, and the numbers show it, he's the best defender at second base."
Now, Statcast actually suggests that Marwin is even better, but they presumably have their own metrics derived from the same raw data.
This sounds like Kiké will be playing a good deal of CF. And since you wouldn't move him to 2B to replace Marwin, this suggests that Arroyo is still very much in the mix for starts at 2B.
Basically, every night vs. RHP you have a choice between Kiké and Renfroe as the 3rd outfielder, and then a choice between Arroyo, Marwin, and sometimes Kiké at 2B. If Franchy can play CF, then Marwin becomes an option in LF, where he's really good defensively, and then you can pick any 2 of the 4 guys, with six combos:
Kiké CF, Arroyo or Marwin at 2B
Renfore RF, Kiké, Arroyo, or Marwin at 2B. Marwin LF, Arroyo at 2B
Opposing pitcher, ballpark (Renfroe's bat plays much better at home), and our starting pitcher (GB pitcher -> Arroyo worse choice at 2B) are all factors.
Against LHP, Renfroe, Kiké, Verdugo in the OF and Marwin at 2B seems a given.
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Post by costpet on Feb 21, 2021 7:28:28 GMT -5
Jimmy Piersall and Jackie Jensen were pretty good, too. Jackie held his own, especially with all those day games battling the sun in RF. Jimmy, of course, had to cover up for Ted, who wasn't that interested in playing LF...a necessary evil until his next time at bat.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Feb 21, 2021 8:58:21 GMT -5
Jimmy Piersall and Jackie Jensen were pretty good, too. Jackie held his own, especially with all those day games battling the sun in RF. Jimmy, of course, had to cover up for Ted, who wasn't that interested in playing LF...a necessary evil until his next time at bat. Jimmy Piersall was my fielding role model growing up (it didn't hurt that Al and Margie Hirshberg lived around the corner and were my folks best friends so I got to meet him often) and I used to shag fly balls for the older kids every chance I got. There is a family story that he and my Mom used to have epic ping pong battles at the Hirshberg's place on the Cape (she was a super athlete and they both were hyper competitive) and he was always great to the kids. And Ted Williams was, of course, a god to all of us on the rare occasions when he would appear. Imagine if he had been able to DH his whole career (and had video) and never had to go to war - maybe 3 season hitting .400 and 800 homeruns.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 21, 2021 12:46:47 GMT -5
Who knows what the team is planing. Itâs entirely possible that they are still undecided. On too of that, Iâm pretty sure we are going to see some different rosters from day to day and in game switching. More than just L/R split. However, Iâm pretty sure we are going to see Hernandez as the starter in 2B and Verdugo in CF. On top of that Iâm expecting Renfroe in RF when he starts. Iâd say Marwin plays all over. Iâm just going on a hunch and what I think they will do. Party basing on what Cora and Bloom have inferred and partly my feeling. On Friday Julian McWilliams reported in the Globe that, according to Cora, it wasn't a given that Kiké was the starting 2B. "If everything goes well, on a nightly basis, he'll play second at one point during the game. If he starts in the outfield, probably, he'll end up playing second base, because defensively, and the numbers show it, he's the best defender at second base."
Now, Statcast actually suggests that Marwin is even better, but they presumably have their own metrics derived from the same raw data.
This sounds like Kiké will be playing a good deal of CF. And since you wouldn't move him to 2B to replace Marwin, this suggests that Arroyo is still very much in the mix for starts at 2B.
Basically, every night vs. RHP you have a choice between Kiké and Renfroe as the 3rd outfielder, and then a choice between Arroyo, Marwin, and sometimes Kiké at 2B. If Franchy can play CF, then Marwin becomes an option in LF, where he's really good defensively, and then you can pick any 2 of the 4 guys, with six combos:
Kiké CF, Arroyo or Marwin at 2B
Renfore RF, Kiké, Arroyo, or Marwin at 2B. Marwin LF, Arroyo at 2B
Opposing pitcher, ballpark (Renfroe's bat plays much better at home), and our starting pitcher (GB pitcher -> Arroyo worse choice at 2B) are all factors.
Against LHP, Renfroe, Kiké, Verdugo in the OF and Marwin at 2B seems a given.
That all sounds right to me. I guess a lot depends on Franchys ability to stay healthy and produce. A lot changes weather he is a 140 game player of 40. The other big question is if and how fast Duran makes his appearance. I’m all for moving guys around the field. Especially marwin and Kiki. But it would be nice for some of the other players to have some position consistency. I wonder how fair it is and how good Verdugo can be defensively at either RF or CF if he is consistently going back and forth. I’m one guy you has complete confidence at Verdugo in CF ( maybe not long term but for the season ). I just don’t think it’s fair for him to be at his best if going back and forth. That said, I’m fine if he is full time RF.
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Post by brendan98 on Apr 21, 2021 9:04:31 GMT -5
It's time for this thread to come back. With the Sox performing so well, does that push back the timeline on Duran being brought up?
The timeline was probably always going to be at least a month of minor league games, so probably beginning of June at the earliest, but barring injury it is hard to find a regular spot for him the way the roster is configured right now.
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Post by hanleybeingmanny on Apr 21, 2021 9:45:36 GMT -5
I'm not sold on Renfroe and Gonzalez getting tons of starts down the line. Neither of them are making enough good contact for me to keep them in the lineup. However, Danny Santana is also going to come in and compete for playing time. It will be difficult to see Duran or Chavis come up without injuries.
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Post by GyIantosca on Apr 21, 2021 10:53:12 GMT -5
I am still counting the days till he comes.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 21, 2021 11:17:48 GMT -5
I am still counting the days till he comes. Through the first 18 games the Red Sox have been relatively injury free...(yes Brasier and 1 start from E-Rod). Let’s hope that continues even if it pushes Duran’s time line back.
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Post by brendan98 on Apr 21, 2021 13:03:21 GMT -5
Manfred posted the following in the Blue Jay's Series Thread:
"In Renfroe's last 103 games, going back to the break in 2019, he is batting .160 over 337 ABs. I am not really sure much can be done to benefit him. At this point I might rather start cycling guys like Marwin to platoon Franchy with different pieces and have Renfroe as a defensive replacement."
After reading this I looked up the team stats, and Renfroe stands out as being the obvious candidate to lose playing time if Duran is called up. It would have been nice if Renfroe could have been productive vs LHP so you could sit Duran against tough lefties, however Duran's splits have been neutral for the most part throughout his MILB career. Renfroe has a .717 OPS vs LHP but that is almost entirely driven by the SLG% (he has a HR and 2B in his 15 ab's). Obviously, being a LHH you don't call up Duran to take Renfroe's ab's vs LHP, even though I believe Duran can do better than what Renfroe has done recently. The Sox offense isn't as good right now against LHP, your first 2 hitters Kiké and Verdugo are .631 & .632 vs LHP (with a combined OBP less than .240) and Renfroe has been mediocre at best vs LHP when that was supposed to be his strength. Cora could improve the lineup by getting Arroyo (.944 vs LHP) into the leadoff or 2nd spot, and by moving Dalbec (1.000 vs LHP) up to the 8th spot, but 1 more guy hitting LHP would help a lot especially someone who could get on base in the leadoff or 2nd spot.
Edit: I should also emphasize that 15 ab's vs LHP is nothing, if Renfroe goes 2 - 3 with BB and a dinger in his next game vs a LHP he will look like he is the lefty killer we need so badly.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 21, 2021 13:33:51 GMT -5
If we're talking June before a call-up makes sense (I'm inclined to agree), that means we'll have another month-and-a-half of data.
Yeah, if Cordero comes back to earth and Renfroe doesn't start hitting, then it's really obvious how you play it. But as some have said, they also, in theory, have Santana coming too. Santana-Herandez-Verdugo could work as the primary outfield configuration, with Cordero and Renfroe spotting in when Hernandez and Santana move to the infield.
Note that it really doesn't take much to get those Statcast numbers to come up this early in the season. Arroyo's numbers looked like they predicted him falling back to earth a couple of days ago and now they look fine. These things take time to accumulate in such a way that the deductions you can take are meaningful.
And by the way, speaking of fast-changing metrics, Cordero's dWAR that had folks all a-twitter the other day is down to 0.3.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 12, 2021 8:05:59 GMT -5
any word on how his defense is progressing ? i am excited about Duran. With his speed the offense should play at the ML level.
i am real hopeful we have an above average ML regular who might have some All-Star potential.
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 12, 2021 11:28:42 GMT -5
This may be a bit off-topic, but I pondered it while reading the Duran bio:
If a player has an 'above average' tool, that's generally a 55 (as a plus tool would be 60)
So if a player has a 'below average' tool, that should be 45, right? But isn't 'fringe average' 45? So is 'below average' a 40? Or is fringe average 45+?
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Post by grandsalami on May 13, 2021 21:48:25 GMT -5
Differences in his swing
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Post by marrcus on May 13, 2021 23:10:03 GMT -5
When Peter said "in time" I doubt he meant July? We'll have to see how Kiki and Danny Santana fit in as well.
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Post by dangermike on May 13, 2021 23:13:22 GMT -5
He clearly has more power now but that old video of him waving at a pitch has to be the worst example of his old swing especially in a comparison video
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 14, 2021 6:00:18 GMT -5
He clearly has more power now but that old video of him waving at a pitch has to be the worst example of his old swing especially in a comparison video Agreed - the tweeter clearly had a point to make and he cherry-picked two swings which would reinforce his point.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 14, 2021 6:37:25 GMT -5
Ok if DUran continues to hit the way he has how early will the call come? Sure I know he is still progressing in the field but that bat is needed.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on May 14, 2021 7:17:11 GMT -5
Ok if DUran continues to hit the way he has how early will the call come? Sure I know he is still progressing in the field but that bat is needed. If they are willing to trot Martinez out in LF I really don't want to hear his defensive development is what is holding him back. The kid isn't Hanley level bad in the outfield.
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Post by patford on May 14, 2021 7:30:55 GMT -5
Early reports were Duran as good at 2B. He does not have the arm for RF and his development in CF is going pretty slow. I think Ian mentioned the other day that Duran had botched another play in CF. If he can't eventually play CF maybe moving him back to 2B would be an idea. I get the fact that his speed does not play at 2B like it would in CF but if his reads remain poor and he's using his speed to make up for bad jumps then what's the point? Also Jimenez is lurking and not too far off. Does LF really (particularly in Fenway) offer any advantage for speed that 2B does not? It's not like there have not been fast 2B men in MLB history.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 14, 2021 7:55:43 GMT -5
He clearly has more power now but that old video of him waving at a pitch has to be the worst example of his old swing especially in a comparison video Agreed - the tweeter clearly had a point to make and he cherry-picked two swings which would reinforce his point. Was going to add the same. The silly part is he didn't need to do that - just pick a regular swing, not a sword that would've ended up on Pitching Ninja.
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Post by brendan98 on May 14, 2021 10:01:57 GMT -5
I understand the reason to be patient with guys like Renfroe and Franchy, it is paying off (somewhat) with Renfroe right now. I would just really rather see the Sox being patient with Duran getting his feet wet in the MLB right now than hoping Franchy turns himself around. To be perfectly honest Franchy needs some time in the minor leagues to work on his swing instead of trying to fix it against MLB pitchers. Duran is going to have some ups and downs vs MLB pitchers, but he is too good offensively for the minor leagues, yes there will be some defensive issues...so put him LF, but for the love of God please put that bat in the lineup soon.
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