jimoh
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Post by jimoh on May 14, 2021 10:25:04 GMT -5
I understand the reason to be patient with guys like Renfroe and Franchy, it is paying off (somewhat) with Renfroe right now. I would just really rather see the Sox being patient with Duran getting his feet wet in the MLB right now than hoping Franchy turns himself around. To be perfectly honest Franchy needs some time in the minor leagues to work on his swing instead of trying to fix it against MLB pitchers. Duran is going to have some ups and downs vs MLB pitchers, but he is too good offensively for the minor leagues, yes there will be some defensive issues...so put him LF, but for the love of God please put that bat in the lineup soon. I worry that bringing Duran up just to fix the offensive hole in LF will interfere with the important goal of having him be a great offensive and defensive CF in the near future. I'd rather bring up Santana (who can be part of a multi-body semi-platoon with Renfroe) or Muñoz during the first half of the season.
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Post by brendan98 on May 14, 2021 10:41:11 GMT -5
I understand the reason to be patient with guys like Renfroe and Franchy, it is paying off (somewhat) with Renfroe right now. I would just really rather see the Sox being patient with Duran getting his feet wet in the MLB right now than hoping Franchy turns himself around. To be perfectly honest Franchy needs some time in the minor leagues to work on his swing instead of trying to fix it against MLB pitchers. Duran is going to have some ups and downs vs MLB pitchers, but he is too good offensively for the minor leagues, yes there will be some defensive issues...so put him LF, but for the love of God please put that bat in the lineup soon. I worry that bringing Duran up just to fix the offensive hole in LF will interfere with the important goal of having him be a great offensive and defensive CF in the near future. I'd rather bring up Santana (who can be part of a multi-body semi-platoon with Renfroe) or Muñoz during the first half of the season. Duran developing the instincts to become a great CF could take years and might not happen at all, however with his athleticism he can be an above average defensive LF right now.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 14, 2021 12:27:17 GMT -5
Well let's also not assume a hot six-game stretch means he's definitely ready. Is there reason for optimism? Yup. Is it in a vacuum? No - we have ATS "data" too. But 6 games doesn't tell us he's ready. I want to see how the Mets attack him at the end of the week. I want him to face a couple more pitching staffs. Keep in mind the logistics of the 6-game series they're playing this year.
If he's doing what he's done the last 6 games at the end of the month? Yeah get him up. In the meantime, they're also going to be adding or adding back Santana, Hernandez, and Arroyo over the next couple weeks. I'm ok seeing how that settles first.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 14, 2021 12:28:05 GMT -5
...Duran developing the instincts to become a great CF could take years and might not happen at all, however with his athleticism he can be an above average defensive LF right now. I agree with this. Taking a really fast player and expecting the reads off the bat to come along quickly is unlikely to happen. Anyone who's played in the outfield knows that it takes time to get a feel for ball trajectory and where the thing will end up. It isn't easy and it's even more difficult in a place like Fenway what with the distances and the odd angles. The mediocre arm doesn't help. I don't know what they answer is. But anyone who's watched the last few games - with Verdugo chasing down balls and Renfroe's cannon erasing stray runners and keeping others in check - should have an appreciation for what good outfield defense means.
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Post by Guidas on May 14, 2021 14:27:33 GMT -5
Well let's also not assume a hot six-game stretch means he's definitely ready. Is there reason for optimism? Yup. Is it in a vacuum? No - we have ATS "data" too. But 6 games doesn't tell us he's ready. I want to see how the Mets attack him at the end of the week. I want him to face a couple more pitching staffs. Keep in mind the logistics of the 6-game series they're playing this year. If he's doing what he's done the last 6 games at the end of the month? Yeah get him up. In the meantime, they're also going to be adding or adding back Santana, Hernandez, and Arroyo over the next couple weeks. I'm ok seeing how that settles first. No - let's. BWAAAHAHAHAHAHA! (sorry, couldn't resist. also, we need a sarcasm font.)
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Post by RedSoxStats on May 21, 2021 13:24:56 GMT -5
Early returns on Duran:
67 plate appearances .259/.358/.569 .286 BABIP 35% ground balls 13% walk rate 27% strikeout rate 64% contact on swings Polar Park
Are we finding answers or more questions?
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on May 22, 2021 12:25:01 GMT -5
Early returns on Duran: 67 plate appearances .259/.358/.569 .286 BABIP 35% ground balls 13% walk rate 27% strikeout rate 64% contact on swingsPolar Park Are we finding answers or more questions? Now it's down to 62.6% For reference, Bobby Dalbec contact on swings in the Majors is 64%. We'll see where those numbers are hen he'll reach the 150 PA mark but this is not good.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on May 22, 2021 12:39:08 GMT -5
Early returns on Duran: 67 plate appearances .259/.358/.569 .286 BABIP 35% ground balls 13% walk rate 27% strikeout rate 64% contact on swings Polar Park Are we finding answers or more questions? both
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 22, 2021 14:07:22 GMT -5
Early returns on Duran: 67 plate appearances .259/.358/.569 .286 BABIP 35% ground balls 13% walk rate 27% strikeout rate 64% contact on swingsPolar Park Are we finding answers or more questions? Now it's down to 62.6% For reference, Bobby Dalbec contact on swings in the Majors is 64%. We'll see where those numbers are hen he'll reach the 150 PA mark but this is not good. I’d be interested in seeing how many of those are out of the zone. Dalbec’s biggest issue is that he swings through some fat pitches. I don’t think Duran is ready for a call up but that’s to be expected given him having a new swing
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Post by incandenza on May 22, 2021 14:26:05 GMT -5
I'm gonna say on balance the returns are good: he hadn't shown the game power yet, and now he has (SSS caveats implied). He also had no real track record of success above high-A and now here he is in AAA with an .879 OPS. But for those who have been saying he could come up to Boston almost right away and be a positive force on offense, well... that always seemed a bit aggressive for a guy who had no real track record of success above high-A.
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Post by patford on May 22, 2021 14:29:13 GMT -5
Now it's down to 62.6% For reference, Bobby Dalbec contact on swings in the Majors is 64%. We'll see where those numbers are hen he'll reach the 150 PA mark but this is not good. I’d be interested in seeing how many of those are out of the zone. Dalbec’s biggest issue is that he swings through some fat pitches. I don’t think Duran is ready for a call up but that’s to be expected given him having a new swing I don't know the answer to that but in general swinging at pitches out of the strike zone is not a +. His K rate and swing and miss rate are concerning. I get visions of Chavis.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 22, 2021 14:44:21 GMT -5
I’d be interested in seeing how many of those are out of the zone. Dalbec’s biggest issue is that he swings through some fat pitches. I don’t think Duran is ready for a call up but that’s to be expected given him having a new swing I don't know the answer to that but in general swinging at pitches out of the strike zone is not a +. His K rate and swing and miss rate are concerning. I get visions of Chavis. Oh it’s not a plus but it’s less concerning to me than not being able to hit AAA pitches in the heart of the strike zone I see him bringing a lot more value than Chavis both defensively and with speed. I also expect higher OBP. Might whiff 28% of the time though. We shall see. It’s been less than a month of AAA action with the new swing, I’m not gonna get too concerned about it unless it’s a continuous trend
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Post by kingstephanos on May 22, 2021 15:57:28 GMT -5
2/2 with a 2B, so far today 👍🏾
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Post by kingstephanos on May 22, 2021 17:16:47 GMT -5
2/2 with a 2B, so far today 👍🏾 4/4 with a 2B, 2 HR, and 0 Ks👍🏾👍🏾
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Post by humanbeingbean on May 22, 2021 17:17:48 GMT -5
Another one!! Get this man up!
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on May 22, 2021 17:34:18 GMT -5
Just watched the videos of his 2 home runs today. Crushed them both. Impressive the work he's done to introduce power into his swing considering he was somewhat of a slap hitter when he got to the organization.
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Post by soxinsf on May 22, 2021 17:55:16 GMT -5
2/2 with a 2B, so far today 👍🏾 4/4 with a 2B, 2 HR, and 0 Ks👍🏾👍🏾 I guess the slump is over. How much more does he have to prove?
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Post by unitspin on May 22, 2021 18:09:05 GMT -5
4/4 with a 2B, 2 HR, and 0 Ks👍🏾👍🏾 I guess the slump is over. How much more does he have to prove? When the red sox have four guys batting under .170. Maybe we'll get to see him start every fourth game. You have to be fair to the other players.
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Post by kingstephanos on May 22, 2021 18:09:19 GMT -5
5/5 now. 1 triple away from the cycle.
Now I'm curious who was the last Boston prospect to go 5/5 (or more) in a game.
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Post by wOBA Fett on May 22, 2021 18:24:09 GMT -5
Is service time and losing a year of protection an issue with Duran?
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Post by kingstephanos on May 22, 2021 18:31:39 GMT -5
Is service time and losing a year of protection an issue with Duran? I'd assume some of it has to do with his outfield defense, as he's not great out there - both from scouting reports and seeing him live.
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Post by foreverred9 on May 22, 2021 18:56:26 GMT -5
5/5 now. 1 triple away from the cycle. Now I'm curious who was the last Boston prospect to go 5/5 (or more) in a game. If you exclude the DSL guys, the last person in the system to go 5/5 was... Duran back in 2018. www.mlb.com/gameday/544032Prior to that: - Rusney Castillo 6/5/18 - Charlie Madden 5/14/18 - Garrett Benge 7/31/17 - Tzu-Wei Lin 6/21/17 - Rafael Devers 5/2/17 - Mauricio Dubon 8/26/16 - Aneury Tavarez 6/18/16 - Rafael Devers 6/9/16 Devers did it again in 2018 for the Sox and then went 6/6 in 2019 for the Sox.
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Post by foreverred9 on May 22, 2021 22:56:16 GMT -5
Duran has played all of 17 games at AAA, and those are the only minor league games he's played since 2019. And his defense legitimately needs work. I don't think you need a conspiracy theory to explain why he isn't in Boston yet. I understand this line of argument, but it seems terribly shortsighted. It gives no credit to his full year at the ATS during the 2020 season, nor does it give any credit for his performances in the Caribe Series or Spring Training. Duran is clearly more seasoned than a young kid coming up from AA. Know of any players who successfully skipped AAA on their ways to the Sox? Duran has played all of 17 games at AAA, and those are the only minor league games he's played since 2019. And his defense legitimately needs work. I don't think you need a conspiracy theory to explain why he isn't in Boston yet. So many holes in this statement, sits like swiss cheese. Bringing this conversation over from the gameday thread. Duran was batting 2-16 this week before this game, and 4 for his previous 27 after Chris's made his post above to not assume he's definitely ready. I realize it's tough to dismiss this 5-5 performance, but let's not overvalue his good days and ignore his bad days. I hate being negative on the guy though, he's looking as promising as everyone hoped he'd be and he's continuing what he showed last year and this spring so we all should be excited about his future.
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Post by soxinsf on May 22, 2021 23:26:44 GMT -5
Good days and bad days? He is hitting .300 with an OPS around 1100. Consider his body of work. That is why he is ready to come up and play. Franchy needs a chance to find himself at AAA.
But the bottom line is that Duran is ready and he can take the place of any of Franchy, Arroyo, Chavis, Marwin.
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Post by kingstephanos on May 22, 2021 23:58:11 GMT -5
Good days and bad days? He is hitting .300 with an OPS around 1100. Consider his body of work. That is why he is ready to come up and play. Franchy needs a chance to find himself at AAA. But the bottom line is that Duran is ready and he can take the place of any of Franchy, Arroyo, Chavis, Marwin. Have you seen his outfield defense? He isn't a DH, so they have to be comfortable with that aspect as well.
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