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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 9, 2022 11:51:12 GMT -5
It could have been... but there are only a handful of rows in centerfield under the fountains, plastic wouldn't fly as far as metal, frankly I don't believe him. He needs to learn not to be defensive and take his licks. Still don't understand how when he gave up the inside the park grand slam, Cora said the players handled it but when Duran was interviewed, he said NO ONE had spoken to him. How can both statements be true? Then he went into the spiel about how he like to see the reporters try to catch a ball in the twilight. I am not impressed, and the Red Sox used to bring their players up with more media savvy in the past, why has it been so bad with Duran and was hasn't it been corrected? More reasons to be disappointed with this team All the other young players seem fine. I think it's probably just that Duran is kind of a goober.
One thing with Duran I keep thinking about is how he got onto top-100 lists, and even made it into the top 50 one or two places, about a year ago. That seemed crazy high to me, and I reeeally wanted them to trade him if that was actually how he was valued around baseball. I suspect it wasn't, but it's something I would love to know.
I agree with this.. you can’t call one guy’s reaction to a very high stress situation an organizational failure. There is only so much you can do.
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 10, 2022 7:30:34 GMT -5
I said 2 years ago when he was rated a top 50 prospect that we should trade him and maximize his value. To me, he didn’t possess any plus tools besides his speed. And most of his other tools were average at best. He always came across to me as a major league pinch runner, emergency up and down player
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 10, 2022 8:22:52 GMT -5
It could have been... but there are only a handful of rows in centerfield under the fountains, plastic wouldn't fly as far as metal, frankly I don't believe him. He needs to learn not to be defensive and take his licks. Still don't understand how when he gave up the inside the park grand slam, Cora said the players handled it but when Duran was interviewed, he said NO ONE had spoken to him. How can both statements be true? Then he went into the spiel about how he like to see the reporters try to catch a ball in the twilight. I am not impressed, and the Red Sox used to bring their players up with more media savvy in the past, why has it been so bad with Duran and was hasn't it been corrected? More reasons to be disappointed with this team All the other young players seem fine. I think it's probably just that Duran is kind of a goober.
One thing with Duran I keep thinking about is how he got onto top-100 lists, and even made it into the top 50 one or two places, about a year ago. That seemed crazy high to me, and I reeeally wanted them to trade him if that was actually how he was valued around baseball. I suspect it wasn't, but it's something I would love to know.
Never been a big believer in him either, even his speed as his one big tool was never actually that meaningful because he's never been a great base stealer and he has no range in the outfield.
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hank
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Post by hank on Aug 10, 2022 12:37:37 GMT -5
I said 2 years ago when he was rated a top 50 prospect that we should trade him and maximize his value. To me, he didn’t possess any plus tools besides his speed. And most of his other tools were average at best. He always came across to me as a major league pinch runner, emergency up and down player Pity we didn't. The guy just doesn't have it.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Aug 10, 2022 16:36:30 GMT -5
I said it in the game thread, and I'll say it here as well. Doesn't matter where you play him if he is this thin skinned it will end poorly. I've seen enough of him on defense and he hasn't provided enough offensively to justify his continued role. I was so wrong about him, I thought he would be a jolt, providing speed on the bases with occasional pop. I haven't seen an arm that bad since Johnny Damon, and I can't remember an outfielder who looked this lost on EVERY play. Get him out. Yeah, players bothered by boos never work out. "But despite his success, he fought with the Boston fans; sometimes they booed him even when he hit a home run. The Red Sox were a comic opera of a team, and the brilliant kid showed his disdain by loafing and sulking. At the height of his war with the fans, Yastrzemski made a theater event of his disdain. As the booing mounted one day, he suddenly dropped his glove and dramatically extracted two wads of cotton from his ears." www.thestacksreader.com/the-indian-summer-of-carl-yastrzemski/This is a great read, someone should forward it to Duran, maybe it would resonate.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Aug 10, 2022 18:04:18 GMT -5
Bottle caps ain't so bad. I had to dodge cherry bombs.
-- Mickey Rivers
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Post by ramireja on Jan 23, 2023 13:11:16 GMT -5
Before I say anything, let me say what this post is not intending to state. This post is not meant to say that I think we should rely on Jarren Duran this upcoming year. This post is also not a prediction that Duran will become an MLB regular. This post is simply intended to tune out some of the media and fan bias surrounding Duran’s 2022 year and to provide a little bit more of an objective look at his season. I’m seeing very, very little confidence among Red Sox nation right now in Jarren Duran and yet, I’m not really see much in terms of analysis. However, and this is the psychologist in me speaking, but I think a couple of bad plays/media are really clouding people’s perception of Duran’s abilities and potential right now. First, Duran did not have a good season offensively at the major league level last year, but he did improve his performance from 2021 (112 PAs) to 2022 (223 PAs) across the board: BA: .215 to .221 (despite a BABIP drop) BB%: 3.6% to 6.3% K%: 35.7% to 28.3% ISO: .121 to .142 wRC+: 48 to 78 PA per SB: 56.0 (w/ a 66.7 success rate albeit on a total of 3 attempts) to 31.8 (with an 87.5% success rate) Let’s not forget…Duran only has a total of 335 PAs at the major league level and that he’s put up back-to-back seasons at the AAA level with wRC+ of 120 or greater. If the above numbers represent a trajectory of improvement for Duran…how much more would he need to improve to be viable option on a 26-man roster or even an MLB regular? It may not be sexy or what you initially hoped for, but if he can put up a .240/.320/.400 slash line (on say a 7% walk rate, 26% K-rate, .160 ISO) with 20+ SB and average OF defense….isn’t that kind of valuable to have at the league minimum? Ok, maybe you’re not buying that Duran has average OF defense potential. Again, I think a couple of atrocious plays and the media reaction might be clouding people’s judgement. I won’t pretend to know how Clay Davenport represents defensive metrics from the minors, but I was suprised to see Duran rated very well in CF at Worcester (his +9 led the team). At the major league level, Statcast only had Duran at -2 Outs Above Average showing improvement in arm strength from 2021 (86.7 mph avg) to 2022 (87.4 mph). Generally speaking, Duran graded well in terms of ‘reaction’ and ‘burst’, but poorly in ‘route.’ However, that balance tended to result in something closer to average defense than people may think – and again, I think its easier for a fan to notice and critique a poor route as opposed to reactions or bursts. So anyways, am I saying that I think we should hand Duran a starting OF job out of ST? Of course not. In all honestly, the odds are probably better that he never emerges into an MLB regular. I’ll admit that and want to be clear about that. That said, I don’t think the odds are so stacked against that happening that we should rule it out and I certainly don’t think shouldn’t be rooting against him. This is not the time to bury him on the depth chart. He has a legitimate chance to become part of this emerging core and I for one am rooting for that to happen. I hope he can tune out the hate from the media and sections of the fanbase though and just focus on his game.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jan 23, 2023 14:31:34 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 23, 2023 15:23:47 GMT -5
Ok, maybe you’re not buying that Duran has average OF defense potential. Again, I think a couple of atrocious plays and the media reaction might be clouding people’s judgement. I won’t pretend to know how Clay Davenport represents defensive metrics from the minors, but I was suprised to see Duran rated very well in CF at Worcester (his +9 led the team). At the major league level, Statcast only had Duran at -2 Outs Above Average showing improvement in arm strength from 2021 (86.7 mph avg) to 2022 (87.4 mph). Generally speaking, Duran graded well in terms of ‘reaction’ and ‘burst’, but poorly in ‘route.’ However, that balance tended to result in something closer to average defense than people may think – and again, I think its easier for a fan to notice and critique a poor route as opposed to reactions or bursts. In my argument that they're planning on a Duran / Arroyo platoon at 2B -- which I think is freakishly strong when you read between the lines of Cora's description of his current status and projected role -- I admit to being a little disingenuous about his defense. I was well aware of his Statacast numbers for plays made. It is worth pointing out that it's likely -7 runs per 150 games, which is not at all good. But not hopeless, either.
When you add his Arm rating (averaging UZR and DRS) and add DRS's good / bad plays made, you do get -12 runs per 150 G, which is unacceptable (historically there's a big drop-off for fielders below -10; that seems to be the number that corresponds to the subjective assessment that a guy simply can't play his position). If we had the equivalent of WPA for defense, and hence a situational adjustment, his runs per 150 would crater.
But I think all of these extra negatives are either largely psychological, and / or or the result of inexperience, and of course the latter fuels the former. He has the arm strength to play CF but often rushed his throws and missed the cutoff man. I would guess that his -1 run in DRS's "stuff nobody counts but we do" metric is his failure to back up other fielders and thus allowing runners to advance, and maybe failing to cut off hits and prevent singles from becoming doubles.
I think getting him out of CF and back to a position he's comfortable in is a smart move, for the very reasons you talk about. It's hard to play a position knowing that everyone thinks you can't. The Clay Davenport numbers are very interesting and suggest that a lot of the -7 plays made per 150 games was psychological in origin. He could end up as either a starting 2B or a 10th man, in either case as a guy who can play CF when needed.
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carl4sox
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Post by carl4sox on Jan 23, 2023 17:15:01 GMT -5
Better: Just sign Iggy. Duran to work on 2nd base in Worcester.
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Post by patford on Jan 23, 2023 17:30:32 GMT -5
Better: Just sign Iggy. Duran to work on 2nd base in Worcester. Sounds good. The trouble with Duran in CF is not just that he isn't good it's that CF is one of two (or three with catcher) premier defensive positions. I tend to agree it's too soon to give up on him as a hitter. Not to mention his value is probably at an all time low. It's quite possible his struggles in CF affected his hitting.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jan 23, 2023 18:43:01 GMT -5
Can we let the kid develop please. He looks in amazing shape. I’m sure he worked on his craft. Let’s see what he brings this year in spring training.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jan 23, 2023 20:40:24 GMT -5
He is 26. How much longer is it going to take for him to develop?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 23, 2023 21:00:51 GMT -5
I’m more willing to be patient with 25/26 YO’s these days because they had their development interrupted by covid.
Me personally? I would’ve shipped him to Siberia after the lack of effort on that inside the parker. Now that we’re months removed I’m intrigued about what he may be able to do, hopefully with a time split at like 2B and LF or something
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Post by jbur521 on Jan 24, 2023 0:11:17 GMT -5
I’m more willing to be patient with 25/26 YO’s these days because they had their development interrupted by covid. Me personally? I would’ve shipped him to Siberia after the lack of effort on that inside the parker. Now that we’re months removed I’m intrigued about what he may be able to do, hopefully with a time split at like 2B and LF or something The camera angle on that play showed an alarming lack of effort, but he clearly saw that the left fielder was hustling and would beat him to the ball...it certainly would have LOOKED better if he had run after it anyway. It will probably stick to him forever...
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Post by terriblehondo on Jan 24, 2023 10:23:11 GMT -5
Lets not forget being picked off going back to 1st standing up. With his speed and body he is easy to dream on. His baseball instincts well I'd say they aren't top shelf. The Sox just have to hope something clicks with him. As far as all the switching back 2nd base talk. Was he even a good defensive 2nd baseman in college?
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jan 24, 2023 11:56:48 GMT -5
I notice that the latest iteration of SP 2023 projected rosters has Duran off the major league roster, in CF at Worcester, with Rafaela moving to SS. Does SP have inside information that this is going to happen? Duran isn't going to redevelop at 2B if he doesn't play there.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 24, 2023 12:04:40 GMT -5
The Red Sox have had 5 years to watch Duran in the outfield and not moved him back to second for even one inning. They have advanced minor league defensive numbers which we don't have access to and they've kept him there. Until they actually play him at second again I'm not buying that they'll do that.
Personally I think they're either seeing some progress in the outfield to the point that they're going to keep trying it, or they really don't buy him as a second baseman. Hey, if they try him there and he can be average then great, it would fit the team well (if he can also hit), but I'm not convinced we have any evidence they're going to do that.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jan 24, 2023 14:56:44 GMT -5
The Red Sox have had 5 years to watch Duran in the outfield and not moved him back to second for even one inning. They have advanced minor league defensive numbers which we don't have access to and they've kept him there. Until they actually play him at second again I'm not buying that they'll do that. Personally I think they're either seeing some progress in the outfield to the point that they're going to keep trying it, or they really don't buy him as a second baseman. Hey, if they try him there and he can be average then great, it would fit the team well (if he can also hit), but I'm not convinced we have any evidence they're going to do that. I’m pretty confident that this is because we are paper thin at OF and have some minor depth in the infield. That being said there’s no chance he’s ever playing 2nd.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jan 24, 2023 15:53:38 GMT -5
It’s so frustrating, because a Duran that figures out fits so well onto this roster. adding that LHB would be perfect if he could play 2nd as well as OF but I think any hopes of defensive versatility have gone out the window.
If Duran could have evolve into an average corner outfielder with slightly above offense I’d be happy. I think it’s still possible if things click.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 24, 2023 15:56:39 GMT -5
Hopefully a year of low expectations is beneficial to Duran. I’m glad he’s still around and they haven’t sold low on him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 24, 2023 15:56:58 GMT -5
I notice that the latest iteration of SP 2023 projected rosters has Duran off the major league roster, in CF at Worcester, with Rafaela moving to SS. Does SP have inside information that this is going to happen? Duran isn't going to redevelop at 2B if he doesn't play there. All of those guys are going to move around. Rafaela is going to continue getting one day a week at SS like he did this past year, I'm sure. It's a work in progress. Also Duran isn't playing 2B.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 24, 2023 16:07:49 GMT -5
I get the thought to try and get Duran as many OF reps as possible but I have to wonder if they made a blunder not getting him reps at 2nd base a couple times a week on his way up the ladder? Hindsight is 20/20 but at this point I'd say it'd take a minor miracle for him to be able to improve in the OF, primarily in CF to be able to be an impact player at the ML level. However if he had been getting some reps at 2nd on the way up, he could at least have that to fall back on. It's not like the bar to be a league average 2nd baseman in terms of batting is very high. Perhaps he can take back to 2nd base rather quickly and easily but I'm not banking on it with him.
Just my own two cents on it, perhaps it wouldn't have mattered either way with him and his future with the Sox but it's hard for me to picture an avenue where he adds much value to the Sox ML team as anything more than an up and down AAAA type of player as a pure OFer. From what I've seen his bat hasn't played up enough to be an everyday corner OF and maybe not even a bench one and his defense in CF needs too much work for me to have much hope there. Perhaps his bat at the ML level will take another leap forward this year as Ramireja pointed out on his 2021 to 2022 stats and he'll prove me wrong though.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 24, 2023 17:15:42 GMT -5
I get the thought to try and get Duran as many OF reps as possible but I have to wonder if they made a blunder not getting him reps at 2nd base a couple times a week on his way up the ladder? Hindsight is 20/20 but at this point I'd say it'd take a minor miracle for him to be able to improve in the OF, primarily in CF to be able to be an impact player at the ML level. However if he had been getting some reps at 2nd on the way up, he could at least have that to fall back on. It's not like the bar to be a league average 2nd baseman in terms of batting is very high. Perhaps he can take back to 2nd base rather quickly and easily but I'm not banking on it with him. Just my own two cents on it, perhaps it wouldn't have mattered either way with him and his future with the Sox but it's hard for me to picture an avenue where he adds much value to the Sox ML team as anything more than an up and down AAAA type of player as a pure OFer. From what I've seen his bat hasn't played up enough to be an everyday corner OF and maybe not even a bench one and his defense in CF needs too much work for me to have much hope there. Perhaps his bat at the ML level will take another leap forward this year as Ramireja pointed out on his 2021 to 2022 stats and he'll prove me wrong though. I agree with you that it probably wouldn't matter either way. But just to play devil's advocate on your first point: what if they had him playing 2b 1-2 days per week and his OF and 2b were both bad, wouldn't we be asking if they screwed him up by having him play 2nd base? It seems that most players who get reps at multiple positions do so either because they're freaks who can play everything (like Rafaela), they're blocked at the major league level at their current position or they have utility-player perceived ceilings, in which case it's learn the other positions or switch to bagging groceries.
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Post by bosoxnation on Feb 24, 2023 2:48:56 GMT -5
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