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7/12-7/15 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 13, 2018 21:37:07 GMT -5
When I see Scott pitch in the majors, I wonder how he's even getting AAA hitters out.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 13, 2018 21:44:42 GMT -5
Pretty deflating when Porcello gave it all back and then some. Kelly crapped the bed pretty bad too - and Scott. We were due for a game like this I guess - but still, they are not fun to endure! At least the MFY lost. (not saying we can't do the bottom of the 9th miracle, but it just doesn't feel like that tonight, does it?) 3 one run losses for the Yanks in a week is awesome. I am worried about the next two games with our offense and bullpen hamstrung but if Cleveland wins another game or two that will really help a lot.
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Post by p23w on Jul 13, 2018 21:44:55 GMT -5
This is ugly.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 13, 2018 22:00:57 GMT -5
thankfully, no longer an "is"...but a "was". Porcello had quite a Friday 13th...yuck
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2018 22:19:21 GMT -5
Why is 3 days for bereavement a lot? I'd hope you're at a place of employment that allows for 3 days of bereavement for immediate family members? Can't imagine a scenario where your employer would say, "Oh, your family member passed away? Well, we'll give you a day but you better be at work the next day". (Guess they could, but that wouldn't be legal.). Between grieving upon the passing of an immediate family member and then the subsequent funeral, I don't know why you'd think 3 days is too long. My Grandfather just died, I don’t get bereavement, and my previous employer (a well known company in Boston) offered three days per year. Sorry about your grandfather. And I'm also sorry your place of employment doesn't seem to care about its workers. That's awful. You should have been able to get bereavement instead of having to work through it or using up your paid time off.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2018 22:25:37 GMT -5
I just hope that it was simply a terrible off-night for Porcello and that he didn't have some sort of injury. His stuff wasn't there and he normally has impeccable control. I've never seen him so wild before (or at least that I can remember.)
When they cut the deficit to 8-7 with nobody out and runners on 1st and 3rd and couldn't score, I had a bad feeling. Nunez, hacking as always, swung at a bad pitch and then Travis and eventually Bradley couldn't get the tying run home.
The positive side of the game, besides Mookie's usual excellence, was seeing Thornburg look good and watching Brasier be impressive yet again.
The downside was that Joe Kelly was bad again and it's not easy to count on him. He's kind of streaky as a reliever. He might reel off 10 scoreless innings, but for now it's hard to be comfortable with him in high leverage. Barnes and Kimbrel are the only ones you can really trust.
Maybe another name to consider for their all out high leverage reliever search might be Toronto's Oh. He pitched really well and is having a nice year. He's not dominant by any stretch and certainly doesn't scare teams with his velocity and can be HR prone, but he knows how to pitch and doesn't beat himself. He wouldn't be my first choice, but I'd certainly prefer him to Fernando Rodney or overspending to get Barraclough (I really don't want him or his high wire act.)
At least the MFYs lost.
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Post by station13 on Jul 13, 2018 22:38:21 GMT -5
When Porcello has no fastball command, he's quite shitty. His slider often finds itself down the middle with not much sharp break to fool batters.
This team has a serious hole at 2B and in the set up man. Both must get patch.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jul 13, 2018 23:36:21 GMT -5
Fun fact: Ryan Borucki entered today's game with a 37.5% whiffs-per-swing mark on his changup, which would rank 14th in baseball among qualified pitchers. he threw 2 to Mookie today and both end up in the triangle lmao Markus is a bad man!
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2018 0:53:47 GMT -5
Mookie Betts currently has a wRC+ of 203. No one's had a 200+ season since Barry Bonds (233 in 2004, lol). A lot of years no one's come close.
The last one to do it who wasn't Bonds was Mark McGwire in 1998. The last ones who *might* not have been 'roided up were Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas in '94.
A complete list of everyone else who's ever done it: Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, Babe Ruth, and Ty Cobb. That's it.
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 14, 2018 6:42:46 GMT -5
Just when you thought Mookie wasn't going to slug .700 for the year, here he is back at .697.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 14, 2018 9:27:31 GMT -5
Hopefully Pearce is ready to go tomorrow, this series could get ugly with no Benintendi and Devers. At least the yanks had a nice one run loss. They scored 7 runs without them. That should be enough. It was just bad pitching.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 14, 2018 9:30:27 GMT -5
This is why the Sox need a high leverage inning guy. Kelly and his inconsistencies. He's not good enough. The good outings of Thornburg and Brasier outweigh Kellly's rough one.
Matt Barnes has the 10th best xWPA- in MLB (Craig Kimbrel is 14th). He has the 12th best xFIP- (63, better than Kimbrel's 67), the 63rd best BABIP (while pitching in the worst pitcher's park for BABIP and in front of the worst infield defense in MLB; I adjust for nether of those) and is tied for 34th in HR/FB. Barnes is certainly good enough to be the 8th inning guy.
That leaves Thornburg, Kelly, Brasier, Workman, and, if everyone is healthy, Price or Pomeranz to handle the 7th. Whoever is best from that group may not be outstanding, but they'll certainly be good enough.
Another stud would obviously be welcome, but "need" is the wrong verb.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 14, 2018 9:41:22 GMT -5
Hopefully Pearce is ready to go tomorrow, this series could get ugly with no Benintendi and Devers. At least the yanks had a nice one run loss. They scored 7 runs without them. That should be enough. It was just bad pitching. We have a shitty lineup today and probably tomorrow too. Núñez at DH and Swihart at first, no Moreland, no Pearce.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 14, 2018 9:50:33 GMT -5
This is why the Sox need a high leverage inning guy. Kelly and his inconsistencies. He's not good enough. The good outings of Thornburg and Brasier outweigh Kellly's rough one. Matt Barnes has the 10th best xWPA- in MLB (Craig Kimbrel is 14th). He has the 12th best xFIP- (63, better than Kimbrel's 67), the 63rd best BABIP (while pitching in the worst pitcher's park for BABIP and in front of the worst infield defense in MLB; I adjust for nether of those) and is tied for 34th in HR/FB. Barnes is certainly good enough to be the 8th inning guy. That leaves Thornburg, Kelly, Brasier, Workman, and, if everyone is healthy, Price or Pomeranz to handle the 7th. Whoever is best from that group may not be outstanding, but they'll certainly be good enough. Another stud would obviously be welcome, but "need" is the wrong verb.
Yes they will be good enough to continue to help the Red Sox pile up the victories this season. That's correct, but the certainty of that group beyond Kimbrel and Barnes is questionable in the post-season when you're not facing the Rangers or the Angels or the Rays or the Orioles. You might not say they "need" an upgrade. In the sense of the word do they really need anything? They can go to war with what they have in the post-season and just take their chances against opponents who are superior to most of whom they've been facing and life goes on either way. Or they could get that welcome relief stud if he's out there for a palatable cost and give Cora more options in a higher leverage relief role (and from what I read they're looking for somebody with closer experience better than what they have now in middle relief but obviously not as good as Kimbrel. I think they're praying Colorado drops out and they can go get Adam Ottavino). And maybe between now and then there will be a surprise in that maybe Thornburg will become an additional option. He had one good outing and a track record in the past prior to injury. Maybe yesterday was just the beginning of him being on track to being what he was in the past - we won't know for certain by July 31st. Maybe Brasier is a gem that was hidden away in Pawtucket and away from MLB the past several years and is a lot more than a low leverage/AAAA pitcher, but all we have to go on is 3 outings (all of which make you say wow), but we need more major league track record to feel certainty (despite what our instincts might be screaming at us) that Brasier is a guy you want to count on in the playoffs. I don't think the track record will be long enough by 7/31 to make a real determination. So you trade for that relief stud, and then suddenly when you don't "need" that help somebody will step forward just because. It's kind of that way with job interviews. Don't have a job, looking for one, good luck you won't find it, but as soon as you get a job, everybody will want to start hiring you. Sox get that relief help somebody will step forward. Otherwise maybe they do for the remainder of the season and maybe they don't. I like better odds than that when playing Houston or NY or the best NL team. So I do believe there is a need. Now I'm wondering more and more about what they should do for 2b. Eric, do you think the Sox should go with Holt and Phillips or look to upgrade and if so who and how much are you willing to give up?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 14, 2018 9:55:21 GMT -5
Mookie Betts currently has a wRC+ of 203. No one's had a 200+ season since Barry Bonds (233 in 2004, lol). A lot of years no one's come close. The last one to do it who wasn't Bonds was Mark McGwire in 1998. The last ones who *might* not have been 'roided up were Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas in '94. A complete list of everyone else who's ever done it: Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, Babe Ruth, and Ty Cobb. That's it. Furthermore ....
He had a 214 when he got hurt.
He came back without a rehab, which was the smart thing to do from a team POV, because a rusty Mookie Betts is still better than his backup.
He had a 101 over his first 11 games (53 PA).
Since then he's had a 242. He's .552 / .606 / .931 his last week.
Further and furthermore ... Statcast has his xwOBA as .011 higher than his actual. And it's not because he's easy to defend; they've only shifted on him 18% of the time and his wRC+ is 66 points higher when they do.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 14, 2018 9:55:59 GMT -5
They scored 7 runs without them. That should be enough. It was just bad pitching. We have a shitty lineup today and probably tomorrow too. Núñez at DH and Swihart at first, no Moreland, no Pearce. It's ok. Toronto is a crappy team themselves. If E-Rod pitches well, they'll be fine. If he's as good as Porcello they won't be. But either way, if the Sox can split the next two, call it a victory. The Sox are banged up and half their lineup is out. The week off will do some of the Red Sox players some good. Let them heal up. Pedal to the metal doesn't really work very well. The 1978 team had virtually the same record at this time as this year's team and their manager wasn't as smart as Cora is and he wore down their regulars who had aches and pains and were downright injured. He refused to use their bench and management got rid of one of the best bench pieces. That team failed to win 100 games and failed to even make the post-season. This year's team is doing things the right way. This team has a pretty good shot at reaching 100 plus wins and they're not selling out to do it. Cora knows this team pooped out the past two years in October. He's trying to have them strong and rested. He's going about it the right way.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 14, 2018 9:59:34 GMT -5
Well, hopefully Cleveland wins. I’m going to the game today which is part of why this lineup is so disappointing but it’d be a shame to just cough up games to bad teams when the All Star Break is in 2 days. Nuñez has sucked as is our DH, Swihart has barely played and is our first baseman, those are supposed to be two of your best batters. They seem to be mailing it in.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 14, 2018 10:02:25 GMT -5
The good outings of Thornburg and Brasier outweigh Kellly's rough one. Matt Barnes has the 10th best xWPA- in MLB (Craig Kimbrel is 14th). He has the 12th best xFIP- (63, better than Kimbrel's 67), the 63rd best BABIP (while pitching in the worst pitcher's park for BABIP and in front of the worst infield defense in MLB; I adjust for nether of those) and is tied for 34th in HR/FB. Barnes is certainly good enough to be the 8th inning guy. That leaves Thornburg, Kelly, Brasier, Workman, and, if everyone is healthy, Price or Pomeranz to handle the 7th. Whoever is best from that group may not be outstanding, but they'll certainly be good enough. Another stud would obviously be welcome, but "need" is the wrong verb.
Yes they will be good enough to continue to help the Red Sox pile up the victories this season. That's correct, but the certainty of that group beyond Kimbrel and Barnes is questionable in the post-season when you're not facing the Rangers or the Angels or the Rays or the Orioles. You might not say they "need" an upgrade. In the sense of the word do they really need anything? They can go to war with what they have in the post-season and just take their chances against opponents who are superior to most of whom they've been facing and life goes on either way. Or they could get that welcome relief stud if he's out there for a palatable cost and give Cora more options in a higher leverage relief role (and from what I read they're looking for somebody with closer experience better than what they have now in middle relief but obviously not as good as Kimbrel. I think they're praying Colorado drops out and they can go get Adam Ottavino). And maybe between now and then there will be a surprise in that maybe Thornburg will become an additional option. He had one good outing and a track record in the past prior to injury. Maybe yesterday was just the beginning of him being on track to being what he was in the past - we won't know for certain by July 31st. Maybe Brasier is a gem that was hidden away in Pawtucket and away from MLB the past several years and is a lot more than a low leverage/AAAA pitcher, but all we have to go on is 3 outings (all of which make you say wow), but we need more major league track record to feel certainty (despite what our instincts might be screaming at us) that Brasier is a guy you want to count on in the playoffs. I don't think the track record will be long enough by 7/31 to make a real determination. So you trade for that relief stud, and then suddenly when you don't "need" that help somebody will step forward just because. It's kind of that way with job interviews. Don't have a job, looking for one, good luck you won't find it, but as soon as you get a job, everybody will want to start hiring you. Sox get that relief help somebody will step forward. Otherwise maybe they do for the remainder of the season and maybe they don't. I like better odds than that when playing Houston or NY or the best NL team. So I do believe there is a need. Now I'm wondering more and more about what they should do for 2b. Eric, do you think the Sox should go with Holt and Phillips or look to upgrade and if so who and how much are you willing to give up? I think our difference may be semantic. I'd say we "could really use" another relief stud. Think of "I could really use some help here" when you're struggling, versus "I need help here" when you can't do it. If you need to acquire a player, you pay the cost, regardless of the cost. That is definitely not the case here. If the price seems too stiff, you roll with what you've got.
I had the same thought about Ottavino ... but the Rockies have to fall out of the race for reasons other than he blows a couple of saves!
Look at the bullpen thread for a new list of possible targets.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 14, 2018 10:33:26 GMT -5
Yes they will be good enough to continue to help the Red Sox pile up the victories this season. That's correct, but the certainty of that group beyond Kimbrel and Barnes is questionable in the post-season when you're not facing the Rangers or the Angels or the Rays or the Orioles. You might not say they "need" an upgrade. In the sense of the word do they really need anything? They can go to war with what they have in the post-season and just take their chances against opponents who are superior to most of whom they've been facing and life goes on either way. Or they could get that welcome relief stud if he's out there for a palatable cost and give Cora more options in a higher leverage relief role (and from what I read they're looking for somebody with closer experience better than what they have now in middle relief but obviously not as good as Kimbrel. I think they're praying Colorado drops out and they can go get Adam Ottavino). And maybe between now and then there will be a surprise in that maybe Thornburg will become an additional option. He had one good outing and a track record in the past prior to injury. Maybe yesterday was just the beginning of him being on track to being what he was in the past - we won't know for certain by July 31st. Maybe Brasier is a gem that was hidden away in Pawtucket and away from MLB the past several years and is a lot more than a low leverage/AAAA pitcher, but all we have to go on is 3 outings (all of which make you say wow), but we need more major league track record to feel certainty (despite what our instincts might be screaming at us) that Brasier is a guy you want to count on in the playoffs. I don't think the track record will be long enough by 7/31 to make a real determination. So you trade for that relief stud, and then suddenly when you don't "need" that help somebody will step forward just because. It's kind of that way with job interviews. Don't have a job, looking for one, good luck you won't find it, but as soon as you get a job, everybody will want to start hiring you. Sox get that relief help somebody will step forward. Otherwise maybe they do for the remainder of the season and maybe they don't. I like better odds than that when playing Houston or NY or the best NL team. So I do believe there is a need. Now I'm wondering more and more about what they should do for 2b. Eric, do you think the Sox should go with Holt and Phillips or look to upgrade and if so who and how much are you willing to give up? I think our difference may be semantic. I'd say we "could really use" another relief stud. Think of "I could really use some help here" when you're struggling, versus "I need help here" when you can't do it. If you need to acquire a player, you pay the cost, regardless of the cost. That is definitely not the case here. If the price seems too stiff, you roll with what you've got.
I had the same thought about Ottavino ... but the Rockies have to fall out of the race for reasons other than he blows a couple of saves! Look at the bullpen thread for a new list of possible targets.
Agreed. What are your thoughts regarding 2b?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 14, 2018 10:35:06 GMT -5
Well, hopefully Cleveland wins. I’m going to the game today which is part of why this lineup is so disappointing but it’d be a shame to just cough up games to bad teams when the All Star Break is in 2 days. Nuñez has sucked as is our DH, Swihart has barely played and is our first baseman, those are supposed to be two of your best batters. They seem to be mailing it in. Can't win them all but if you've spent your money for tickets I can understand why emotions can win out over logic. I'm still disappointed that Sale won't be pitching the game I go to even though there's probably a really, really good reason why.
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Post by danredhawk on Jul 14, 2018 10:57:17 GMT -5
Swihart is 7 for his last 14 with a walk and a pair of doubles. I know it's hip to hate on Nunez but he is also 11 for 31 in July with two doubles and a home run. So I'd imagine the line-up will be just fine, with these two, in managing the next TWO days before the break. If they get better pitching today and tomorrow, they'll probably win a pair or split at worst. It could be much worse, after all, they could be running out the Blue Jays line-up....
Porcello, meanwhile, in his last 13 outings has blown opportunities for shutdown innings at a 40% clip (27 opportunities). I don't even know if that's a bad rate, but it doesn't seem strong. I don't even know if it even really matters, but it's definitely hard to watch...
Give the man a deficit, a tie game or a huge lead and he's lights out, but pitching immediately after receiving a narrow lead has seemingly been a problem for much of the last two seasons...
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 14, 2018 11:04:46 GMT -5
Well, hopefully Cleveland wins. I’m going to the game today which is part of why this lineup is so disappointing but it’d be a shame to just cough up games to bad teams when the All Star Break is in 2 days. Nuñez has sucked as is our DH, Swihart has barely played and is our first baseman, those are supposed to be two of your best batters. They seem to be mailing it in. No lineup with Mookie and JDM in it should be disappointing. Have fun at the game!
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 14, 2018 11:19:35 GMT -5
Swihart is 7 for his last 14 with a walk and a pair of doubles. I know it's hip to hate on Nunez but he is also 11 for 31 in July with two doubles and a home run. So I'd imagine the line-up will be just fine, with these two, in managing the next TWO days before the break. If they get better pitching today and tomorrow, they'll probably win a pair or split at worst. It could be much worse, after all, they could be running out the Blue Jays line-up.... Porcello, meanwhile, in his last 13 outings has blown opportunities for shutdown innings at a 40% clip (27 opportunities). I don't even know if that's a bad rate, but it doesn't seem strong. I don't even know if it even really matters, but it's definitely hard to watch... Give the man a deficit, a tie game or a huge lead and he's lights out, but pitching immediately after receiving a narrow lead has seemingly been a problem for much of the last two seasons... Johnson is pitching tomorrow
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 14, 2018 11:20:25 GMT -5
Well, hopefully Cleveland wins. I’m going to the game today which is part of why this lineup is so disappointing but it’d be a shame to just cough up games to bad teams when the All Star Break is in 2 days. Nuñez has sucked as is our DH, Swihart has barely played and is our first baseman, those are supposed to be two of your best batters. They seem to be mailing it in. No lineup with Mookie and JDM in it should be disappointing. Have fun at the game! We’re going to need them to win one or both of these next two.
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Post by patford on Jul 14, 2018 12:08:57 GMT -5
When Porcello has no fastball command, he's quite shitty. That is pretty true of every pitcher.
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