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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 27, 2013 9:33:44 GMT -5
Most interesting part is his changeup. I thought it was no better than a solid pitch. Was it improved or did Alex Speier exaggerate? The way I read it is those are scouts relaying the grade of his changeup (70). I don't think Alex would presume to have that kind of expertise. He's smart enough to know he's not qualified to make that claim. We and BP both have Owens' changeup as below average. Even if you're on the high end like BA (plus) and Sickels (very good) on his change, it's not 70. Someone from within the organization is blowing smoke up Speier's ass on this one. A 70 changeup is CC Sabathia level. There's no freaking way Owens has a 70 changeup.
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Post by gatortough on Jul 12, 2013 9:31:53 GMT -5
Couldn't find the old Owens thread, but thought this was pretty interesting:
Jason Parks ?@professorparks 54s Writing up Henry Owens from last night's start in Salem. I don't see a frontline arm; putting a number 4 starter projection on him. #RedSox
yikes. Seems like his velocity has dropped considerably since spring training. He needs to continue adding weight.
Side note: it's the GM's job to know, or at least an educated guess of, out of our plethora of pitching prospects which are likeliest to succeed, and trade the rest to teams that overvalue them. Not saying HO should definitely be trade bait, especially based off one negative scouting report, but with the deadline coming up I wonder if we'll see how BC really values which prospects.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Jul 12, 2013 13:57:12 GMT -5
Don't agree with one start being enough to put a projection on a guy like Owens. He's certainly received great reviews before which so far matches the results.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 12, 2013 14:18:10 GMT -5
He's got a lot of hype, but many of the projections I read give him a ceiling of a #3 starter. That includes the scouts here. Nothing to sneeze at, and he's a lefty, but this system seems to be flush with #3 ceiling guys, so if you think you can get a big piece or a better prospect by packaging Owens you have to listen to the proposal. Not a guy I'd trade for a reliever prob, but someone who could go into a package for something very useful, controllable and, uh, big, if that happens.
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Post by huskies15 on Jul 13, 2013 10:24:23 GMT -5
i havent looked at his innings total or anything, but is it possible that he's wearing down a bit right now? Its getting to that point in the season where maybe a couple days extra rest between starts could help him out. I also agree that he needs to continue to work on his conditioning and add some more muscle to avoid fading down the stretches of seasons.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jul 17, 2013 15:26:33 GMT -5
Recent footage of Owens:
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,981
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Post by jimoh on Jul 17, 2013 17:29:51 GMT -5
I've seen him look better than that. He looked awkward and out of sorts.
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 18, 2013 8:53:33 GMT -5
Things just don’t seem to add up when you look at Owens. Scouting reports and projections don’t seem to be in sync with what he has done on the mound so far. Starting his career in Greenville last year, and starting this year in Salem seems like a fairly aggressive beginning to his career (placement wise), and while there has been some ups and downs, Owens has put up some impressive stats. More than the stats however, the thing that doesn’t seem to add up with Owens is the number of times where he is downright dominant, stiking out 13 of 15 batters in spring training comes to mind. Yesterday’s performance is not the first, second or third time that Owens has dominated his competition in the past 2 seasons. Owens seems to be quite a bit more consistent this year, 1 out of every 5 outings seems to be a rough one, but he is somewhere between solid and filthy in the other 4. If this was an experienced (college) pitcher doing this at a less advanced level, I would look at it with a lot of doubt, but Owens was in HS two years ago, and he is at the very least making the Sox think about pushing him on to AA at some point this season (though I am guessing the Sox might not let him throw much more than 40 to 50 innings the rest of the year).
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Post by Don Caballero on Jul 18, 2013 9:25:25 GMT -5
I don't get it, people around here underrate some guys like Owens and Ranaudo based on random scouting reports or by perception, or overvalue others like Kalish, who had maybe the fugliest swing I ever saw in my entire life. Go figure.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 10:42:37 GMT -5
I don't get it, people around here underrate some guys like Owens and Ranaudo based on random scouting reports or by perception, or overvalue others like Kalish, who had maybe the fugliest swing I ever saw in my entire life. Go figure. Don you know as well as I do that you can't scout a box score. Most of us don't get to go down to Salem or even get up to Portland to see these guys in person. Hence we rely on guys like Jason Parks, Keith Law, and Chris Mellen who have actually seen these guys play, have the experience to know what they are seeing, and have great industry contacts. Of course we rely on them to get a feel as to who these players are and how the potentially project as major leaguers. In Owens case the scouting reports as to what he actually does are pretty consistent. Tall lanky lefty without great velocity, but a plus changeup, and iffy fastball command. That sounds like a potential #3 to me if he can develop some command, but it can be considered more of a #4 if he can't maintain the uptick in velocity over the season. In either case, a potential backend starter is very valuable and nothing to sneeze over.
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Post by njsox on Jul 18, 2013 12:14:40 GMT -5
Is there a camera angle illusion or does Owens' fastball have a cutting action when he throws to his glove side of the plate? This would be extremely rare for a lefty.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 18, 2013 14:35:34 GMT -5
Keith Law noted in his ESPN Updated Top 50 that:
"Owens' fastball has ticked up this year to consistently above-average velocity for a lefty, to go along with the plus changeup, slow curveball and great deception. His main issue now is just a lack of strikes, giving hitters opportunities they wouldn't have if he were getting ahead in the count more frequently and could use his secondary stuff. He's probably a No. 3 starter, maybe a little more if he's got more velocity in the tank."
Personally I believe he can maintain his velocity and add a little extra as he learns to use more of his lower half in his deliver. The main concern is the lack of strikes. He continues to give out too many free passes. As Owens advances to AA the hitters become more selective so he's going to have to get the ball in the zone more often.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 18, 2013 16:29:27 GMT -5
I don't get it, people around here underrate some guys like Owens and Ranaudo based on random scouting reports or by perception, or overvalue others like Kalish, who had maybe the fugliest swing I ever saw in my entire life. Go figure. What determines if a guy is over or under rated? If Kalish didn't constantly get hurt and was the starting left fielder then he wouldn't have even over-rated. Conversely since he is what he is, he had no choice but to be over-rated by anyone who thought he'd be in the majors. Owens may never make it to Boston, if he doesn't then you are over-rating him. If he does and s just a mid rotation starter then it seems you are still over-rating him. Basically, unless he has a HOF career there s no way you could possibly underrate him at this point if you believe he's a top of the rotation starter. I assume this is your projection if you think everyone else is under-rating him. Honestly, the over/under rating game when it does to projections is worthless. It only matters with regards to trade value
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 20, 2013 11:28:11 GMT -5
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Post by mainesox on Jul 20, 2013 13:33:20 GMT -5
Great read, thanks for the link Chris.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 20, 2013 13:44:40 GMT -5
Very interesting read. Thanks!
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Post by charliezink16 on Jul 20, 2013 13:50:24 GMT -5
Great stuff. On Bradford and Speiers most recent Trade Deadline podcast, Speier said that Owens is basically the least likely SP prospect (out of Barnes, RDLR, Ranaudo, Webster, Workman, Owens) to be traded for this exact reason. Lots of excitement around this kid.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 20, 2013 14:19:54 GMT -5
On Bradford and Speiers most recent Trade Deadline podcast, Speier said that Owens is basically the least likely SP prospect (out of Barnes, RDLR, Ranaudo, Webster, Workman, Owens) to be traded for this exact reason. So basically Speier says the same thing on the radio as he writes on the web? Wow, amazing consistency there.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 23, 2013 15:37:40 GMT -5
Glass half full: 11 no-hit innings over his last two starts
Glass half empty contains water, but could be fuller: 9 free baserunners (7 BB, 2 HBP) over 11 innings over his last two starts.
Seems appropriate for Owens - should I get excited? Should I not?
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Post by rider on Jul 23, 2013 16:48:06 GMT -5
Not sure he has anything left to prove. Promote him to Portland so he can work on his command. A+ hitters are no match for him.
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Post by jmei on Jul 23, 2013 18:09:55 GMT -5
Right now, I see Owens optimistically projecting as similar to 2013 Felix Doubront-- not top-tier velocity (Doubront has averaged 91.9 mph on his FB over his career, Owens will probably sit in that range with some more physical development) but superb deception on the delivery, an excellent changeup, and an averagish curveball. Above-average but not elite strikeouts, good number of ground balls (44.2% for Owens this year, 45.1% for Doubront over his career), below-average control and command. A very solid #3 pitcher with some upside.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 24, 2013 8:05:27 GMT -5
Right now, I see Owens optimistically projecting as similar to 2013 Felix Doubront-- not top-tier velocity (Doubront has averaged 91.9 mph on his FB over his career, Owens will probably sit in that range with some more physical development) but superb deception on the delivery, an excellent changeup, and an averagish curveball. Above-average but not elite strikeouts, good number of ground balls (44.2% for Owens this year, 45.1% for Doubront over his career), below-average control and command. A very solid #3 pitcher with some upside. Average velocity doesn't tell s the true story with Felix or a lot of pitchers. He can overpower guys with a good mid 90s fastball.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 31, 2013 12:46:42 GMT -5
Per Speier, Owens is being promoted to AA.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 31, 2013 13:04:01 GMT -5
Fun times for Red Sox prospects. As good as it gets, excitement everywhere.
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Post by bjb406 on Jul 31, 2013 14:14:19 GMT -5
I just realized that his walk rate has gotten progressively worse every month this year.
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