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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 27, 2018 17:21:15 GMT -5
I think Kinsler is another good target. Worth 2.2 bwar, batting .303 .361 .455 .816 in July. Had a lot of bad luck, with a .229 BAbip this year. Very good defensively. Angles are out of it at 10 games back in wildcard.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 27, 2018 17:23:19 GMT -5
I think Kinsler is another good target. Worth 2.2 bwar, batting .303 .361 .455 .816 in July. Had a lot of bad luck, with a .229 BAbip this year. Very good defensively. Angles are out of it at 10 games back in wildcard. Dozier is a better fit, but Kinsler isn't a bad fallback option.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 27, 2018 17:32:48 GMT -5
I think Kinsler is another good target. Worth 2.2 bwar, batting .303 .361 .455 .816 in July. Had a lot of bad luck, with a .229 BAbip this year. Very good defensively. Angles are out of it at 10 games back in wildcard. Dozier is a better fit, but Kinsler isn't a bad fallback option. How does Dozier fit better? He might just not sure.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 27, 2018 17:35:36 GMT -5
I think Kinsler is another good target. Worth 2.2 bwar, batting .303 .361 .455 .816 in July. Had a lot of bad luck, with a .229 BAbip this year. Very good defensively. Angles are out of it at 10 games back in wildcard. Dozier is a better fit, but Kinsler isn't a bad fallback option. All depends what you want. Dozier has a .271 .333 .518 .851 in July. He's likely the better bat, but Kinsler is also a plus defender, Dozier isn't. Hence the 2.2 bwar versus 1.3 bwar.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 27, 2018 17:36:30 GMT -5
Dozier is a better fit, but Kinsler isn't a bad fallback option. How does Dozier fit better? He might just not sure. Dozier has over a 50 percent pull rate, which plays at Fenway. His numbers would skyrocket if he was traded here imo.
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Post by wildsox on Jul 27, 2018 17:54:03 GMT -5
Dozier is a better fit, but Kinsler isn't a bad fallback option. All depends what you want. Dozier has a .271 .333 .518 .851 in July. He's likely the better bat, but Kinsler is also a plus defender, Dozier isn't. Hence the 2.2 bwar versus 1.3 bwar. Dozier won the Gold Glove last year at 2nd. I think he's considered a plus defender
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 27, 2018 18:09:25 GMT -5
All depends what you want. Dozier has a .271 .333 .518 .851 in July. He's likely the better bat, but Kinsler is also a plus defender, Dozier isn't. Hence the 2.2 bwar versus 1.3 bwar. Dozier won the Gold Glove last year at 2nd. I think he's considered a plus defender Yea and Derek Jeter won GG so he must be good. Advanced defensive metrics don't show that, as both Baseball Refrence and Fangraphs have him as a below average defender this year. His numbers this year are a lot worse than last year. Frankly he shouldn't have won a GG last year!
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Post by ortiz34 on Jul 27, 2018 18:26:06 GMT -5
Dozier is a better fit, but Kinsler isn't a bad fallback option. All depends what you want. Dozier has a .271 .333 .518 .851 in July. He's likely the better bat, but Kinsler is also a plus defender, Dozier isn't. Hence the 2.2 bwar versus 1.3 bwar. We don't need more defenders. Our 1-5 is great, but we got huge holes in the 6-9. RD is struggling, Holt is not an every day guy, neither is Leon, and JBJ is still up there at this point. We need to add a bat.
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Post by lennsakata on Jul 27, 2018 18:29:14 GMT -5
I think Kinsler is another good target. Worth 2.2 bwar, batting .303 .361 .455 .816 in July. Had a lot of bad luck, with a .229 BAbip this year. Very good defensively. Angles are out of it at 10 games back in wildcard. Would be fun if Pedroia tried to return in September... wasn't it was Kinsler who lost his position to Pedroia in college and transferred? I think I remembered there was no love lost between the two.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 27, 2018 22:05:07 GMT -5
Pressly cost the astros
Jorge Alcala CF Gilberto Celestino
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Jul 27, 2018 22:17:17 GMT -5
Pressly cost the astros Jorge Alcala CF Gilberto Celestino Twins are going to trade half their team before they leave Boston. Dozier, Rodney, Duke, Lynn and Santana yet to go.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 27, 2018 22:37:59 GMT -5
Seriously, what exactly did you plan to do with Soria?
Do you really want to stop giving Tyler Thornburg a chance to demonstrate that he's once again much better than Soria, like he was two years ago? I'm not giving Thornburg's innings to Soria now, after all the work Thornburg has done to get to the point where he's beginning to look like the nearly Kimbrel-level stud we traded Travis Shaw for.
You're not going to give him Matt Barnes' innings because Barnes is a bit better, and knows the catchers and the coaches.
You're not going to give him Heath Hembree's job of cleaning up 6th inning inherited runners, because that's completely alien to what Soria has done his whole career.
So ... he's a guy who can pitch the seventh on days when one of Kimbrel, Barnes,and Thornburg are unavailable.
Don't they have that guy already in Ryan Brasier, and don't you want to take a good look at him in case he can pitch the seventh for you for a bunch more cost-controlled years?
And then there's Joe Kelly, who was as good as Kimbrel for two months, which means the smart thing to do is to keep giving him chances in low leverage and see if he can regain the magic.
They've already had to send Workman down because they like Velazquez's ability to go multiple innings, so adding Soria means you either option Brasier or put Kelly on the shelf. All for a guy who actually slots in fifth on your depth chart (even if he's better than Hembree, because he can't do his job).
Oh, and on the tiny chance that Thornburg implodes in the next six days ... Sergio Romo and Craig Stammen are arguably better, and are still available as of now. And if that happened, you might want to go after a LHR anyway.
Oh, and Herrera has not been great for the Nationals. 62 WPA-, which is good, but he's been a heart attack, with a 130 xFIP-.
OMG how could we use Soria when since may 21st he has a .74 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 23 games. If we only could find a place for him. He's a known commodity that has pitched very well for years and years. If you really think Hembree is better all the power to you, but there is zero proof of that, which is telling. I don't know how you can keep defending Hembree given his monthly splits. He's getting lit up in July and most of his success was from June. How do you explain that? For me it sure looks like one great month is scewing his numbers to make them look better than they are. We need a more proven guy for insurance. Mainly because our whole bullpen outside of Kimbrel is unproven. Thornburg, Braiser, Kelly, and Hembree are just as likely to implode or as they are pitch very well. What are you going to do in September is those guys suck? Get injured? You make a move to hedge your bets, its that simple. It's like you never heard of the saying you can never have enough pitching. You seem to be arguing that logic everyday and it makes zero sense. I could get your argument if it was don't spend a ton on another bullpen arm, but that's not your take. It's we don't need one, which is crazy. Look at the Yankees bullpen and they just added too it. You can never have enough pitching. You can never have enough pitching! I never said Hembree was better. Hembree's job is to come in with inherited runners, often in the 6th, and pitch out of the jam. Modern-day closers have never done that in their life.
All the evidence says that Thornburg is better than Romo, Stammen, and Soria, and that Barnes is roughly as good (you might not think so, but that's because you've personally seen all of Barnes' bad outings and none of Soria's). So the question then becomes, is one of that trio worth the acquisition price when he projects to be the only #3 or #4 option in the pen, for the final three innings?
But that's not the only factor here. Your farm system is critically thin. Rental acquisitions, even of players who get a lot of PT, almost never add you a win (which is why the price for them has come down so much in the last couple of years). You've already sent down Brandon Workman to AAA because you already have more pitching depth than you can use. And it seems very likely you'll have ether Price or Eovaldi in the bullpen in the post-season (not to mention possibly Pomeranz, whom they haven't written off yet). And if Steven Wright can make it back, they'll probably have both Eovaldi and Price.
Not everything that's attractive on the surface is a rational idea. It's like there's a beautiful car that you really love that's available at a reasonable price, but you already own more cars than you have garage space for, and you have one car that's more fun to drive and another that's just as much fun, and you're actually short on cash, and you have two cars that are in the repair shop that are just as nice and it seems likely that one of them can be repaired soon, and maybe both. As much as you'd love to own the car, it makes no sense to buy it.
Of course, maybe you're the type of person who does buy the car.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 27, 2018 23:46:54 GMT -5
OMG how could we use Soria when since may 21st he has a .74 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 23 games. If we only could find a place for him. He's a known commodity that has pitched very well for years and years. If you really think Hembree is better all the power to you, but there is zero proof of that, which is telling. I don't know how you can keep defending Hembree given his monthly splits. He's getting lit up in July and most of his success was from June. How do you explain that? For me it sure looks like one great month is scewing his numbers to make them look better than they are. We need a more proven guy for insurance. Mainly because our whole bullpen outside of Kimbrel is unproven. Thornburg, Braiser, Kelly, and Hembree are just as likely to implode or as they are pitch very well. What are you going to do in September is those guys suck? Get injured? You make a move to hedge your bets, its that simple. It's like you never heard of the saying you can never have enough pitching. You seem to be arguing that logic everyday and it makes zero sense. I could get your argument if it was don't spend a ton on another bullpen arm, but that's not your take. It's we don't need one, which is crazy. Look at the Yankees bullpen and they just added too it. You can never have enough pitching. You can never have enough pitching! I never said Hembree was better. Hembree's job is to come in with inherited runners, often in the 6th, and pitch out of the jam. Modern-day closers have never done that in their life.
All the evidence says that Thornburg is better than Romo, Stammen, and Soria, and that Barnes is roughly as good (you might not think so, but that's because you've personally seen all of Barnes' bad outings and none of Soria's). So the question then becomes, is one of that trio worth the acquisition price when he projects to be the only #3 or #4 option in the pen, for the final three innings?
But that's not the only factor here. Your farm system is critically thin. Rental acquisitions, even of players who get a lot of PT, almost never add you a win (which is why the price for them has come down so much in the last couple of years). You've already sent down Brandon Workman to AAA because you already have more pitching depth than you can use. And it seems very likely you'll have ether Price or Eovaldi in the bullpen in the post-season (not to mention possibly Pomeranz, whom they haven't written off yet). And if Steven Wright can make it back, they'll probably have both Eovaldi and Price.
Not everything that's attractive on the surface is a rational idea. It's like there's a beautiful car that you really love that's available at a reasonable price, but you already own more cars than you have garage space for, and you have one car that's more fun to drive and another that's just as much fun, and you're actually short on cash, and you have two cars that are in the repair shop that are just as nice and it seems likely that one of them can be repaired soon, and maybe both. As much as you'd love to own the car, it makes no sense to buy it.
Of course, maybe you're the type of person who does buy the car. Yes you did, July 15 in the trade thread "There are no numbers where either guy is better than Barnes and Hembree and no reason to believe they'll be better going forward (especially Soria)." Those are your exact words my friend! First it was Kelly, then Hembree, then Braiser, now Thornburg. Anytime a reliever gets hot you start talking about how great he is. The fact is we have no proven guys after Kimbrel. There is no evidence Thornburg is better than any of those guys this year, just a handful of good innings. You would think after pumping up both Kelly and Hembree after hot stretches you would get relievers go hot and cold. You really need to stop looking at very limited innings with Relievers and making these massive assumptions. The truth is Thornburg might be better than those guys, he might not. Heck he might get injured because he gets injured a lot. You can't trust him. You can't trust anyone outside of Kimbrel and Barnes. When you look objectively at the numbers, past performance and injury history that is very clear. Even Barnes is untested. Outside of the Hand and Britton trade relievers have been going rather cheap. So yes it's worth the cost, without a doubt! I would have paid what Familia cost in two seconds. Your bullpen will be lights out if a pitcher like that is your #3 or #4 guy and if something goes horrible wrong you have a guy more than capable of being your #2 in October. You did the exact samething last year with Barnes only to have him disappoint after you proclaimed he was a top notch set up guy! Workman was lights out this time last year only to fade. Unproven guys go hot and cold all the time and our guys don't have track records! What isn't rational is thinking a Ford is a Porsche just because it acts like one for a few thousand miles. Crazy example but that's basically what you keep doing. Maybe you're right, but past history shows there's just as good of a chance your dead wrong. How don't you get that? Limited sample sizes tell you very little, yet you act like we can count on Braiser and Thornburg. Realistically have you not looked at the fact they could wear down given there past history? Remember Carson Smith? You can never have enough pitching! Especially when costs aren't that high.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 27, 2018 23:55:35 GMT -5
All depends what you want. Dozier has a .271 .333 .518 .851 in July. He's likely the better bat, but Kinsler is also a plus defender, Dozier isn't. Hence the 2.2 bwar versus 1.3 bwar. We don't need more defenders. Our 1-5 is great, but we got huge holes in the 6-9. RD is struggling, Holt is not an every day guy, neither is Leon, and JBJ is still up there at this point. We need to add a bat. Well both Kinsler and Doziers are massive upgrades. Did you miss the part where's he is hitting. 303 .361 .455 .816 in July? Kinsler has had even worse BAbip luck than Dozier this year. The one thing Kinsler adds is D. I'd probably take Dozier, but you need a backup plan. A ton of teams are in on Dozier. Escobar and Cabrera are already off the market.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 28, 2018 0:57:43 GMT -5
Mike Moustakas to the Brewers for Brett Phillips and a minor league pitcher Jorge Lopez.
This means two things.
1) our old friend Travis Shaw's versatility will be severely tested as he will now be the Brewers 2b.
2) The Brewers are out of the running for a 2b (Eric, guess they weren't as much into Arcia as you thought they were). This means that if the Sox want Dozier they have as good a shot as anybody else. I don't think there are a ton of teams in the market for a 2b upgrade. Dozier is having a down year but he's been hitting better lately and he has some history of hitting better later in the season and he's a good defender. It would allow Holt to be the utility man, which he is better suited for and it would keep Nunez away from 2b and be less of a gamble than hoping Phillips can get back to form. It would certainly lengthen the bottom of the lineup having a power threat like Dozier.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 28, 2018 1:09:30 GMT -5
Interesting that he would be at Fenway....could there could be any guys on the major league roster in the mix for a trade (Brian Johnson, Nunez, Swihart)? Swihart. They need a catcher. Problem is so do the Sox. I also think Swihart, but I think the Sox could get some backup catcher in the deal to fill in for a month until Vazquez comes back. The Sox could conceivably get Herrera while the Nats get Swihart and actually give him a chance to be their everyday catcher. And the Sox might do it because they figure when it's time to construct their post-season roster that it will be Leon and Vazquez. I think Vazquez's injury is more of a stay of execution for Swihart rather than a real opportunity, which is too bad, because he's been hitting and he's been fine behind the plate. If the plan isn't for Swihart to get a real opportunity to grab the catching job then his value for the Sox is minimal. Him being a backup catcher isn't that special and I'd trade a backup catcher for Herrera anytime. But just because I feel that way doesn't mean that I personally would deal Swihart away because I think he's worthy of consideration for the starting catcher's job. I just don't think that Dombrowski agrees with me and he values him differently, and if he does value him as a utility man/3rd catcher, then there is a good chance that Swihart is a goner. I hope that's not how Dombrowski views him, but I think once Vazquez returns that's what happens and if so then DDo will deal him if that gets him a guy like Herrera.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 28, 2018 1:13:27 GMT -5
Mike Moustakas to the Brewers for Brett Phillips and a minor league pitcher Jorge Lopez. This means two things. 1) our old friend Travis Shaw's versatility will be severely tested as he will now be the Brewers 2b. 2) The Brewers are out of the running for a 2b (Eric, guess they weren't as much into Arcia as you thought they were). This means that if the Sox want Dozier they have as good a shot as anybody else. I don't think there are a ton of teams in the market for a 2b upgrade. Dozier is having a down year but he's been hitting better lately and he has some history of hitting better later in the season and he's a good defender. It would allow Holt to be the utility man, which he is better suited for and it would keep Nunez away from 2b and be less of a gamble than hoping Phillips can get back to form. It would certainly lengthen the bottom of the lineup having a power threat like Dozier. Yeah I don't know what the Brewers are doing. You put Shaw at a position he's never played before in the middle of the season when you're going for a division title. Dozier is coming to Boston though. I don't know who else would want him at this point.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 28, 2018 1:39:32 GMT -5
Mike Moustakas to the Brewers for Brett Phillips and a minor league pitcher Jorge Lopez. This means two things. 1) our old friend Travis Shaw's versatility will be severely tested as he will now be the Brewers 2b. 2) The Brewers are out of the running for a 2b (Eric, guess they weren't as much into Arcia as you thought they were). This means that if the Sox want Dozier they have as good a shot as anybody else. I don't think there are a ton of teams in the market for a 2b upgrade. Dozier is having a down year but he's been hitting better lately and he has some history of hitting better later in the season and he's a good defender. It would allow Holt to be the utility man, which he is better suited for and it would keep Nunez away from 2b and be less of a gamble than hoping Phillips can get back to form. It would certainly lengthen the bottom of the lineup having a power threat like Dozier. Yeah I don't know what the Brewers are doing. You put Shaw at a position he's never played before in the middle of the season when you're going for a division title. Dozier is coming to Boston though. I don't know who else would want him at this point. This also gives the Sox a chance to be more creative in order to stay under the $237. They might be able to move Nunez by paying the $2m option amount which would go towards 2019 not 2018. Essentially that would give the Twins the choice of cutting him or keeping him for $2m for 2019. They could then give a better prospect to get the Twins to eat some of the 2018 money for Dozier. Dozier won't come with the qualifying offer stigma, he's not going to get near that much as a free agent. With Pedroia an unknown but probable for 2019, the Sox are unlikely to sign Dozier for 2019 which means the Twins will get a chance to sign him if they want him back, a true rental situation.
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Jul 28, 2018 7:57:13 GMT -5
Mike Moustakas to the Brewers for Brett Phillips and a minor league pitcher Jorge Lopez. This means two things. 1) our old friend Travis Shaw's versatility will be severely tested as he will now be the Brewers 2b. 2) The Brewers are out of the running for a 2b (Eric, guess they weren't as much into Arcia as you thought they were). This means that if the Sox want Dozier they have as good a shot as anybody else. I don't think there are a ton of teams in the market for a 2b upgrade. Dozier is having a down year but he's been hitting better lately and he has some history of hitting better later in the season and he's a good defender. It would allow Holt to be the utility man, which he is better suited for and it would keep Nunez away from 2b and be less of a gamble than hoping Phillips can get back to form. It would certainly lengthen the bottom of the lineup having a power threat like Dozier. Yeah I don't know what the Brewers are doing. You put Shaw at a position he's never played before in the middle of the season when you're going for a division title. Dozier is coming to Boston though. I don't know who else would want him at this point. The Brewers have been in talks with the O's about Gausman. I wonder if they would expand it to include Schoop and Shaw and/or perhaps others (Santana) in a bigger deal. To your point, I just can't see them going with Shaw at 2b when he's never played there. That's a big gamble in a pennant race.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 28, 2018 8:31:18 GMT -5
I'm pretty positive that Schoop was also a part of the discussion between the Brewers and Orioles.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 28, 2018 9:35:24 GMT -5
The Twins landed the Astros' #10 and #15 prospects for Ryan Pressly yesterday.
Not bad for a Rule 5 pickup.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 28, 2018 9:44:39 GMT -5
I'm pretty positive that Schoop was also a part of the discussion between the Brewers and Orioles. Vince Lara-Cinisomo @vincelara 10m10 minutes ago It's a reasonable conclusion that the #Brewers' offer to the #Mets for Cabrera was the same they sent to the #Royals for Moustakas. If that's the case, the Mets did well to get Kilome from the #Phillies. . . . If that's the case, we pretty much know what they offered the Twins. . . . Also, the Brewers talked to Shaw/Counsell about Shaw playing 2B before they pulled the trigger. www.mlb.com/video/counsell-shaw-on-adding-moose/c-2318668383?tid=33965510
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Post by jdb on Jul 28, 2018 11:05:45 GMT -5
I dont think it’s a slam dunk Dozier moves. I think the Brewers didn’t like the cost of Dozier and decided to switch Shaw to 2B and not pay the prospects. To me he is a QO guy and hope he signs it. Any team would have to beat the comp pick by a lot.
I do like the idea of Kinsler. Great D and been swinging it a lot better of late. He’s probably more of a salary dump too.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 28, 2018 11:13:48 GMT -5
On picking up a power/8th ining or closer-type reliever, remember that, at least with Sox, NYY, Hou and Cleve in mind, these moves are really being made with the playoffs - or in NYY’s case, playoff AND trying to catch Sox. In the last few years the playoffs have become a 5-inning proposition for most starters and then bring in the hammers from the pen. In the next NYY series if they have a lead in the 5thhthey can potentially pull Tanaka/Sabthia/Whomever - prob everyone except Severino and bring in Warren, Holder, Green, Britton, Betances - whomever fits the situation and the close with Chapman (or Britton). Soria - and others who are still available, Kirby Yates being my current fave - are perfect adds not regarding whom they replace, but how they shorten the game and complement the pen options. They also help you spread the workload til then.
But this team desperately needs a real second baseman with some OBP. Dozier, and a few of the other names bandied about - Wendel/Robertson/Castro/Gennet/Kinsler etc - would all fit well.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 28, 2018 12:02:42 GMT -5
Yeah I don't know what the Brewers are doing. You put Shaw at a position he's never played before in the middle of the season when you're going for a division title. Dozier is coming to Boston though. I don't know who else would want him at this point. On top of having never played 2B in the pros, Shaw is 6'4" 230lbs. What makes the Brewers think he even can play 2B at that size? Seems totally insane, I love it when teams try this stuff though. I have heard some talk about how this type of thing is easier to get away with in the defensive shift era because you're moving your good defender(s) to where the ball is likely to be hit pretty much all the time.
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