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orion09
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Post by orion09 on Jul 29, 2018 23:47:14 GMT -5
That said, while he was good in August 2016 (.257 xwOBA), he did fade in September (.311), which I had forgotten. He had one good postseason outing (0.2 IP, 1 BB, 1 K).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 29, 2018 23:51:29 GMT -5
I was looking at weei.com and I've read elsewhere that it's possible that Brad Ziegler winds up back with the Red Sox. I like Ziegler but I kind of hope that's not the case. I know he's pitched very, very well after pitching very, very poorly, but I don't think he's an impact guy or necessarily better than what they have. I like Kela but don't think it's worth spending the package it would cost to pry him away, and he does struggle against lefties. Also not interested in paying the price for Yates or even Stammen, who like Ziegler I like, but I don't think would move the needle much. I like Hughes from Cincy but I don't think Cincy is inclined to deal their relievers. I hope Herrera becomes available. At this point I hope he is the guy the Sox target if Washington decides to sell. Otherwise Watson if SF decides to sell. I wish they had simply gone after Soria, but I still don't know if they're really over the luxury tax limit. Evan Drellich reports that they are and I've seen other source say they're at 235 million, so I don't know what's right. I'd love Beltre at 3b or Kinsler at 2b, which is more probable because they're going to need a 2b more than they need a 3b. I also hope Leon's slump opens up more playing time for Swihart who is looking better with more regular ABs. Seems to me Ziegler's upside is that of a Barnes-level 8th inning guy, or maybe a bit below. His xwOBA has been hovering around .275 over the last two months - roughly the same as Barnes's 2018 season (though Barnes has averaged about .255 since a bad April). To your earlier points in the thread, Champs, it's hard to feel comfortable without another 8th inning option going forward, but I think some of that is the potential volatility of Kelly, Thornburg, Barnes etc. If you add another guy who's not a step up, necessarily, but has a similar ceiling, you increase your odds that one or more of them is red-hot come October. His acquisition cost would be much lower than Yates, Kela, and Romo, and most everyone else is traded already (unless, like you say, WAS or SF decide to sell). Not to mention, Ziegler's delivery is so tough on righties, and his GB% so high, he looks like a decent weapon against HOU and NYY. The only question is whose roster spot he'd take until September. Not saying it's a perfect fit, but I think he has upside as a lower-cost-tier acquisition. First off - welcome aboard. Secondly, I can't disagree with anything you're saying. It certainly lacks the sexiness of getting a guy you know is going to be a high leverage guy rather than being one of the crowd. At this point you're looking for certainty rather than hoping that so and so comes through or they simply play the hot hand. You're correct about the acquisition cost. If the Sox can dig up a 3rd Basabe brother, they can probably get Ziegler (just kidding). At the moment I find their infield defense kind of terrifying (like today they had a DH at 1b, a 3b at 2b, a 2b at ss, and a catcher at 3b), but I get that groundball pitcher Ziegler is a different look than what they currently have and is another guy tough on righties. I definitely agree about getting a guy whose acquisition cost is low. Would be kind of scary to see what they have to give up for years of control on a reliever. Wouldn't want to see them pay that price. I have trouble imagining throughout all these relief pitcher rumors that the Sox come away emptyhanded on Tuesday. Now I'm thinking this might actually be a last hour deal, although I do wonder what their priority is on upgrading 2b (maybe they're waiting for Ian Kinsler?) and 3b (Would they take on Beltre quite possibly?)
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orion09
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Post by orion09 on Jul 30, 2018 0:10:37 GMT -5
First off - welcome aboard. Thanks, I've enjoyed reading your posts over the last few years. I had the same thought - or they need to have Williams Jerez change his name to "Tanner Houlk" and pawn him off. With the acquisition of Eovaldi, I'd probably rather see them get an infielder than a RP. I feel Cora is smart enough to mix and match come October - I'd like to see someone used in the Charlie Morton vein, whether Pomeranz or Price or Eovaldi, which would take some of the stress off having multiple high leverage RP.
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Post by wildsox on Jul 30, 2018 0:57:43 GMT -5
I’d love to see a deal for Ziegler and Castro except he makes 11 Million per year so that wouldn’t happen.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 30, 2018 0:58:38 GMT -5
Yeah Ziegler sounds redundant really. You already have 2 relievers in Hembree and Barnes that have historically better splits versus RHB rather than LHB.
I don't know what Ziegler's splits are, but they were pretty dramatic as of 2 years ago and Ziegler is like 38 now or something like that.
If Kirby Yates' price tag isn't ridiculous, he seems like the best guy available to go after.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 30, 2018 2:07:46 GMT -5
I’d love to see a deal for Ziegler and Castro except he makes 11 Million per year so that wouldn’t happen. If you're going to blow by the 237 line why not? Certainly not my first or even second choice at this point. Thing is if the Marlins are all about dumping money and lets be frank they usually are. You might get those two for almost nothing. Ziegler is pitching lights out the last two months and Castro is just very consistent with his worst month he still hit .260 and he's hitting .307 .361 .455 .815 in July. It could be just the type of cheap upgrade we need.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 30, 2018 2:51:25 GMT -5
Ziegler has a -0.5 fWAR and a -0.3 bWAR.
He gives up 33 percent of his fly balls in the air for homeruns. The one positive is that he has over a 70 percent groundball rate.
Lefty batters are hitting over .290 off of Ziegler.
Ziegler just doesn't seem like a upgrade at all. I doubt he's even better than Hembree at this point.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 30, 2018 3:01:57 GMT -5
Also with Heyman tweeting out that the money is a real problem, that must mean the Sox are nearing their actual money they want to spend on this year's team imo.
This team's payroll is right around 250 million with Castillo's contract (that doesn't even count the tax percentage for going over the 197 mark). Yes Castillo's contract doesn't count towards the CBT, but that's real guaranteed money there. For every 5 million dollars additionally the Sox spend from here on out, they are paying 3 million on top of that.
Ziegler and Castro make around 7 million the rest of the year. There would be an extra 4-5 million dollars added because the 60+ percentage tax when you're over the 237 mark.
Sam Kennedy said that the Sox are willing to go over, but never mentioned how far over he wants to go. John Henry is a good owner, but he's always kept a budget while he's been here, albeit usually a very high one (which is why he's a good owner).
It's easy to say "hey blow as much money as you can, you're John Henry," but even Henry has his limits on how far he wants to keep spending. It's absolutely fair to wonder how much further the Sox are willing to spend until August 31rst (the waiver deadline).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 30, 2018 4:15:32 GMT -5
Ziegler has a -0.5 fWAR and a -0.3 bWAR. He gives up 33 percent of his fly balls in the air for homeruns. The one positive is that he has over a 70 percent groundball rate. Lefty batters are hitting over .290 off of Ziegler. Ziegler just doesn't seem like a upgrade at all. I doubt he's even better than Hembree at this point. Pedro look at his splits, you should be doing that for every player. First two month OPS of .872 and .976, WHIP of 1.5 and 2.032. Last two months .550 and .553, with WHIP of .894 and .973. First two months he was dreadful, but he's been great the last two months. Hembree has only had one month better than Zieglers last two months, June in which he had a BAbip of .000. Not even close to a top target for me, I'd only make the deal if it cost basically nothing and could help you get Castro for very little. Kinda like what Eric was saying about taking Beltres money could help reduce the cost of a reliever from Texas. Its all about not trading a lot to get upgrades. Given our farm system that should be our goal. Like I keep saying spend money to reduce the cost, not the other way around. The real get would be Castro, not Ziegler. Sure I'd love Yates, but he is going to cost a crap load. The Padres already pulled off the best trade of the deadline getting a legit top 5 top -10 prospect for two relievers. They won't now turn around and give away Yates, not even close. Nevermind Yates is basically Barnes, having a great season, but unproven.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 30, 2018 4:35:41 GMT -5
I know Texas will not take less for Kela just to get rid of Beltre's money. I don't know how that's even a thing, or how anyone could suggest that it's a possibility. Texas will probably love to get rid of Beltre's money, but that doesn't mean they're dumb and they're willing to throw away value for money like the Mets always do.
Ziegler has 2 good months. Hembree has one. Wonderful. I see the same reliever. The Sox don't have unlimited money to spend here like I highlighted in my post 2 posts ago, backed up by Heyman's tweet.
If you're best option out there is Ziegler because you don't want to give up anything, then pass for me and get a second baseman for very little instead. If you want Castro for just money, I'm sure the cheap Marlins will be happy to oblige you there.
Edit- I wouldn't even want Castro. He's having a mediocre year, he gets lazy in the field or loses concentration, his effort has been called into question in the past, plus he's owed money for another year. Give me a rental at second base and bank on Pedrioa coming back next year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 30, 2018 5:24:09 GMT -5
Blake Parker seems like a guy that the Sox could acquire for not that much. Just speculation on my part about that though. The Sox have inquired about him recently too. I'd be okay with getting Kinsler on top of him too as part of a package deal.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 30, 2018 5:39:43 GMT -5
Castro has been worth 2.4 bwar and 1.7 fwar this year, not sure how that is mediocre. I also don't mind the extra year given Pedroia's issues. Gives you insurance. I just don't see you getting him for money, he's having a good year. I don't see an issue unloading him in the offseason either if you wanted too.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 30, 2018 6:01:18 GMT -5
Castro has been worth 2.4 bwar and 1.7 fwar this year, not sure how that is mediocre. I also don't mind the extra year given Pedroia's issues. Gives you insurance. I just don't see you getting him for money, he's having a good year. I don't see an issue unloading him in the offseason either if you wanted too. Castro is sporting a 102 wRC+ with a .741 OPS and a 109 OPS+ That is a tick above league average. Castro is not ideal, especially with his brain farts. Maybe I worded that not properly, but I want no part of Castro's contract if I had the option. Money better spent elsewhere. I wouldn't take him for just money, nevermind prospects.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 30, 2018 8:05:35 GMT -5
Castro has been worth 2.4 bwar and 1.7 fwar this year, not sure how that is mediocre. I also don't mind the extra year given Pedroia's issues. Gives you insurance. I just don't see you getting him for money, he's having a good year. I don't see an issue unloading him in the offseason either if you wanted too. Castro is sporting a 102 wRC+ with a .741 OPS and a 109 OPS+ That is a tick above league average. Castro is not ideal, especially with his brain farts. Maybe I worded that not properly, but I want no part of Castro's contract if I had the option. Money better spent elsewhere. I wouldn't take him for just money, nevermind prospects. Pedro you've been all in on Dozier forever it seems, he has a 91 wRC+, .710 OPS and a 92 OPS+. With a 1.1 bwar and 1.1 fwar, both rate him below average D. So call me confused if you don't like those numbers, plus Dozier has been in a slump now only sporting .247 .312 .464 .776 line in July. Given our lineup I actually like the guy with a higher average and on base skills. We really don't need homers, just guys getting on and not making outs. Numbers at Fenway Dozier .228 .275 .386 .661 Castro .316 .333 .461 .794 What's all this "he gets lazy in the field, loses concentration, effort been called into question, and brain farts" stuff? I heard that stuff when he was young with the Cubs, but haven't heard it recently. He has really improved his D at 2B this year and done well on a crappy team which can't be easily coming from the Yankees. Not saying Castro is my guy, just looking for the best deal. I do have to say your take of not even taking him for the money makes zero sense! He's greatly out producing his contract, its not like he's making 20 million.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2018 8:29:06 GMT -5
I’d love to see a deal for Ziegler and Castro except he makes 11 Million per year so that wouldn’t happen. It actually might if Sox took all of Castro's salary. I bet you could pop him at 3rd or Short if needed but he would solidify 2nd base. And you might even get Miami to take Nuñez back as part of the deal if you took all Castro's cash.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 30, 2018 8:32:44 GMT -5
The Jays are trying to trade Osuna according to Rosenthal. Osuna comes back from a domestic assault suspension. August 5th
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 30, 2018 8:47:52 GMT -5
I was looking at weei.com and I've read elsewhere that it's possible that Brad Ziegler winds up back with the Red Sox. I like Ziegler but I kind of hope that's not the case. I know he's pitched very, very well after pitching very, very poorly, but I don't think he's an impact guy or necessarily better than what they have. I like Kela but don't think it's worth spending the package it would cost to pry him away, and he does struggle against lefties. Also not interested in paying the price for Yates or even Stammen, who like Ziegler I like, but I don't think would move the needle much. I like Hughes from Cincy but I don't think Cincy is inclined to deal their relievers. I hope Herrera becomes available. At this point I hope he is the guy the Sox target if Washington decides to sell. Otherwise Watson if SF decides to sell. I wish they had simply gone after Soria, but I still don't know if they're really over the luxury tax limit. Evan Drellich reports that they are and I've seen other source say they're at 235 million, so I don't know what's right. I'd love Beltre at 3b or Kinsler at 2b, which is more probable because they're going to need a 2b more than they need a 3b. I also hope Leon's slump opens up more playing time for Swihart who is looking better with more regular ABs. Seems to me Ziegler's upside is that of a Barnes-level 8th inning guy, or maybe a bit below. His xwOBA has been hovering around .275 over the last two months - roughly the same as Barnes's 2018 season (though Barnes has averaged about .255 since a bad April). To your earlier points in the thread, Champs, it's hard to feel comfortable without another 8th inning option going forward, but I think some of that is the potential volatility of Kelly, Thornburg, Barnes etc. If you add another guy who's not a step up, necessarily, but has a similar ceiling, you increase your odds that one or more of them is red-hot come October. His acquisition cost would be much lower than Yates, Kela, and Romo, and most everyone else is traded already (unless, like you say, WAS or SF decide to sell). Not to mention, Ziegler's delivery is so tough on righties, and his GB% so high, he looks like a decent weapon against HOU and NYY. The only question is whose roster spot he'd take until September.
Not saying it's a perfect fit, but I think he has upside as a lower-cost-tier acquisition. Do you have a source that produces xwOBA from date ranges, or are you estimating the numbers from data you happened to have saved earlier? Either way, I'm jealous.
I'm using Baseball Savant and can't find a way to filter by date.
Acquiring another pitcher means both committing to a 13-man staff (which they demonstrably have barely needed) and hence a three-man bench, which means no infield help until 9/1 unless they DFA Nunez, plus either optioning Velazquez or trading Kelly (of giving him a phantom DL stint). And they'd have to move them both off the roster if E-Rod or (less likely) Wright returns before 9/1 without anyone else being hurt.
I think it therefore comes down to the acquisition being significantly better than Kelly going forward, and that's a fairly high bar. In the meantime, I've been on board with Thornburg as the 8th inning guy since they fixed his mechanics.
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orion09
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Post by orion09 on Jul 30, 2018 9:02:37 GMT -5
Seems to me Ziegler's upside is that of a Barnes-level 8th inning guy, or maybe a bit below. His xwOBA has been hovering around .275 over the last two months - roughly the same as Barnes's 2018 season (though Barnes has averaged about .255 since a bad April). To your earlier points in the thread, Champs, it's hard to feel comfortable without another 8th inning option going forward, but I think some of that is the potential volatility of Kelly, Thornburg, Barnes etc. If you add another guy who's not a step up, necessarily, but has a similar ceiling, you increase your odds that one or more of them is red-hot come October. His acquisition cost would be much lower than Yates, Kela, and Romo, and most everyone else is traded already (unless, like you say, WAS or SF decide to sell). Not to mention, Ziegler's delivery is so tough on righties, and his GB% so high, he looks like a decent weapon against HOU and NYY. The only question is whose roster spot he'd take until September.
Not saying it's a perfect fit, but I think he has upside as a lower-cost-tier acquisition. Do you have a source that produces xwOBA from date ranges, or are you estimating the numbers from data you happened to have saved earlier? Either way, I'm jealous.
I'm using Baseball Savant and can't find a way to filter by date.
Acquiring another pitcher means both committing to a 13-man staff (which they demonstrably have barely needed) and hence a three-man bench, which means no infield help until 9/1 unless they DFA Nunez, plus either optioning Velazquez or trading Kelly (of giving him a phantom DL stint). And they'd have to move them both off the roster if E-Rod or (less likely) Wright returns before 9/1 without anyone else being hurt.
I think it therefore comes down to the acquisition being significantly better than Kelly going forward, and that's a fairly high bar. In the meantime, I've been on board with Thornburg as the 8th inning guy since they fixed his mechanics.
On a player's Baseball Savant page, under the "Statcast" tab, you can set the line graph to xwOBA and filter by All Pitches and Month (or Game, if you want). Do you have info about downloading datasets from Statcast? I thought at one point there was a way to do it, but can't find it on Savant anymore.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 30, 2018 9:08:15 GMT -5
After reading all of these great investigative posts, the one conclusion is "Slim Pickens"
...don't see how we are going to help ourselves in the pen, catcher or 2b.....No prospects, no money, no realistic targets, no rabbit = no bacon.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 30, 2018 9:50:13 GMT -5
Castro is sporting a 102 wRC+ with a .741 OPS and a 109 OPS+ That is a tick above league average. Castro is not ideal, especially with his brain farts. Maybe I worded that not properly, but I want no part of Castro's contract if I had the option. Money better spent elsewhere. I wouldn't take him for just money, nevermind prospects. Pedro you've been all in on Dozier forever it seems, he has a 91 wRC+, .710 OPS and a 92 OPS+. With a 1.1 bwar and 1.1 fwar, both rate him below average D. So call me confused if you don't like those numbers, plus Dozier has been in a slump now only sporting .247 .312 .464 .776 line in July. Given our lineup I actually like the guy with a higher average and on base skills. We really don't need homers, just guys getting on and not making outs. Numbers at Fenway Dozier .228 .275 .386 .661 Castro .316 .333 .461 .794 What's all this "he gets lazy in the field, loses concentration, effort been called into question, and brain farts" stuff? I heard that stuff when he was young with the Cubs, but haven't heard it recently. He has really improved his D at 2B this year and done well on a crappy team which can't be easily coming from the Yankees. Not saying Castro is my guy, just looking for the best deal. I do have to say your take of not even taking him for the money makes zero sense! He's greatly out producing his contract, its not like he's making 20 million. Anyone who has watched Castro play would know that he is a complete enigma on the field. He has the talent to be one of the best 50 players on the field, yet he'll botch up the biggest play in the 9th inning to cost you a game, or he won't run to first on a ground out, or do something else really stupid. He's a guy that also doesn't put up competitive at bats half the time. He's up his walk rate surprisingly this year, but usually the guy is walking at a 4 percent clip in year's past. I love Dozier because he's a gamer. You wouldn't ever question that he's not going to come big in a big moment, especially defensively in a big spot. He'll make the easy routine plays. I also like Dozier because he has over a 50 percent pull rate, that plays I like Dozier because he's a rental too. I fully understand that the Sox might not even get a second baseman also. They might go to Phillip's until September and hope for Pedrioa to comeback. There is a big possibility that they don't even get anyone.
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Post by trajanacc on Jul 30, 2018 10:29:15 GMT -5
Pedro you've been all in on Dozier forever it seems, he has a 91 wRC+, .710 OPS and a 92 OPS+. With a 1.1 bwar and 1.1 fwar, both rate him below average D. So call me confused if you don't like those numbers, plus Dozier has been in a slump now only sporting .247 .312 .464 .776 line in July. Given our lineup I actually like the guy with a higher average and on base skills. We really don't need homers, just guys getting on and not making outs. Numbers at Fenway Dozier .228 .275 .386 .661 Castro .316 .333 .461 .794 What's all this "he gets lazy in the field, loses concentration, effort been called into question, and brain farts" stuff? I heard that stuff when he was young with the Cubs, but haven't heard it recently. He has really improved his D at 2B this year and done well on a crappy team which can't be easily coming from the Yankees. Not saying Castro is my guy, just looking for the best deal. I do have to say your take of not even taking him for the money makes zero sense! He's greatly out producing his contract, its not like he's making 20 million. Anyone who has watched Castro play would know that he is a complete enigma on the field. He has the talent to be one of the best 50 players on the field, yet he'll botch up the biggest play in the 9th inning to cost you a game, or he won't run to first on a ground out, or do something else really stupid. He's a guy that also doesn't put up competitive at bats half the time. He's up his walk rate surprisingly this year, but usually the guy is walking at a 4 percent clip in year's past. I love Dozier because he's a gamer. You wouldn't ever question that he's not going to come big in a big moment, especially defensively in a big spot. He'll make the easy routine plays. I also like Dozier because he has over a 50 percent pull rate, that plays I like Dozier because he's a rental too. I fully understand that the Sox might not even get a second baseman also. They might go to Phillip's until September and hope for Pedrioa to comeback. There is a big possibility that they don't even get anyone. Can you support this with any data beyond the fact that he's a short white guy?
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 30, 2018 10:44:46 GMT -5
If Castro can’t be one of the 50 best players on the field I definitely don’t want him. I’m not even sure how it’s possible but it scares the bejesus out of me.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 30, 2018 10:47:05 GMT -5
Anyone who has watched Castro play would know that he is a complete enigma on the field. He has the talent to be one of the best 50 players on the field, yet he'll botch up the biggest play in the 9th inning to cost you a game, or he won't run to first on a ground out, or do something else really stupid. He's a guy that also doesn't put up competitive at bats half the time. He's up his walk rate surprisingly this year, but usually the guy is walking at a 4 percent clip in year's past. I love Dozier because he's a gamer. You wouldn't ever question that he's not going to come big in a big moment, especially defensively in a big spot. He'll make the easy routine plays. I also like Dozier because he has over a 50 percent pull rate, that plays I like Dozier because he's a rental too. I fully understand that the Sox might not even get a second baseman also. They might go to Phillip's until September and hope for Pedrioa to comeback. There is a big possibility that they don't even get anyone. Can you support this with any data beyond the fact that he's a short white guy? This isn't about race pal, watch Dozier play. Pedro Martinez was one of the biggest gamers alive, and he's Dominican.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 30, 2018 10:48:49 GMT -5
If Castro can’t be one of the 50 best players on the field I definitely don’t want him. I’m not even sure how it’s possible but it scares the bejesus out of me. That's not why I don't want Castro. There's a reason why the Cubs dumped him for salary relief and a reliever. The Yankees also dumped him too.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 30, 2018 10:56:37 GMT -5
Can you support this with any data beyond the fact that he's a short white guy? This isn't about race pal, watch Dozier play. Pedro Martinez was one of the biggest gamers alive, and he's Dominican. Just to take a step back: you just called a white guy a gamer; said a Dominican guy who plays hard, plays everyday, and is having a better season is not; and then pointed to the pitcher with the best peak of the last 60 years to prove your point wasn't racially charged? Based on your long posting hisotry I know you aren't a racist. But you need to understand why your word choice is bad and why the underlying preconceptions that led you to making that word choice are used to diminish the accomplishments and effort of foreign-born and minority players while propping up those of white dudes and why people find that hard to take. So your word choice was a bad one and I hope you will understand why and reflect on that rather than reflexively defend it. If there's such thing as a "gamer," Castro is every bit as much of one as Dozier is.
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