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Post by patford on Jul 25, 2018 13:16:44 GMT -5
I have no problem with the trade. Beeks fit into a log jam of intriguing back end of a rotation starters the Sox have. Of course that would also be a good definition of Eovaldi.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 25, 2018 13:17:31 GMT -5
I guess my question for the people who don't like this trade is, how good do you actually think Beeks is going to end up being, and why do you think that? Either an okay mid-rotation starter, or an excellent reliever - something along the lines of BJ Ryan's best seasons. A lefty who is absolute death on other lefties and has a fastball/cutter pitch combo that is really hard on righties. If we really are moving into an era where pitchers are allowed to work in more hybrid 2-3 inning roles, I honestly think he could shine. His control is a lot better than most guys with his profile, and the cutter is generating a ton of swings and misses for him. I'd be more okay with this trade if Eovaldi was signed for 2019, so if the acquisition gives them an inside track then I feel better about it. That's fair, I just don't see Beeks that way, mostly because I don't think the fastball is actually any good.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 25, 2018 13:19:16 GMT -5
I also wonder about the Bannister effect. Can he unlock anything with Eovaldi? Will that encourage him to be more willing to sign beyond this year? It certainly seems like money better spent than resigning Pomeranz. Did you see the Jeff Sullivan piece I posted earlier in the thread? Seems like the important changes may already be in place, and the Red Sox/Bannister just picked up on that.
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Post by ponch73 on Jul 25, 2018 13:20:07 GMT -5
I have no problem with the trade. Beeks fit into a log jam of intriguing back end of a rotation starters the Sox have. Of course that would also be a good definition of Eovaldi.
Beeks putting up starter numbers like Eovaldi against major league hitters would be a 2-3 standard deviation outcome.
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Post by awall on Jul 25, 2018 13:24:00 GMT -5
i know a lot of people don't like to get into things that can't be measured easily, like "clutch" etc... but i'd much rather have a guy playing out a "show me" contract as he comes back from an injury than a kid who has never tasted success at the ML level. a guy who has had enough success in the past to believe in himself, playing for a new deal and getting to go from irrelevancy to a WS contender looks like a good bet to me.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 25, 2018 13:30:20 GMT -5
I have no problem with the trade. Beeks fit into a log jam of intriguing back end of a rotation starters the Sox have. Of course that would also be a good definition of Eovaldi.
Beeks putting up starter numbers like Eovaldi against major league hitters would be a 2-3 standard deviation outcome. I'm sorry, but that's statbabble, not analysis. If you're going to make a claim like that, show your work. What is Beeks' mean and standard deviation? Eovaldi has a 4.26 ERA and 4.28 FIP this year. That's well within the range of possible outcomes for Beeks. It's also possible he busts. Thinking Eovaldi is a good get for him is a 100% reasonable opinion, so there's no reason to do this. Don't just fall back use stat words as a pedestal to loft your personal opinion on Beeks sound more considered than other people's.
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Post by ponch73 on Jul 25, 2018 13:38:22 GMT -5
Beeks putting up starter numbers like Eovaldi against major league hitters would be a 2-3 standard deviation outcome. I'm sorry, but that's statbabble, not analysis. If you're going to make a claim like that, show your work. What is Beeks' mean and standard deviation? Eovaldi has a 4.26 ERA and 4.28 FIP this year. That's well within the range of possible outcomes for Beeks. It's also possible he busts. Thinking Eovaldi is a good get for him is a 100% reasonable opinion. Just don't fall back use stat words as a pedestal to loft your personal opinion on Beeks sound more considered than other people's. Not to go all "stat-head" on you, but a 2-3 standard deviation outcome is also "within the range of possible outcomes for Beeks." Since you're so thin-skinned about being disagreed with on a baseball discussion forum, I'll rephrase my wording ... Beeks putting up numbers like Eovaldi as a starter against major league hitters would pretty much be the best case outcome for him, albeit unlikely. Ironically, this isn't just a dig against Beeks. Eovaldi happens to be a pretty good MLB starter. Beeks projects to be a back-of-the-rotation starter or a reliever.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 25, 2018 13:41:27 GMT -5
Chances of winning division .... Just increased significantly
Plus ... Eovaldi will give valuable innings in playoffs.
ALDS without Farrell is our dream come true
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 25, 2018 13:44:02 GMT -5
Right! Eovaldi rounds out the rotation and then goes to the pen for the playoffs.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 25, 2018 13:44:28 GMT -5
Everything is within the range of possible outcomes, from the Hall of Fame to him deciding to quit baseball tomorrow. It's just the likelihood of that outcome, right? So when you say something is a 2-3 standard deviation outcome, I read it as you saying it is 2-3 standard deviations above his expected 50% outcome. Meaning that there is roughly a 2.5% chance that he's a major league starter with a 4.25 ERA, and a 97.5% chance that he does not.
If that's your analysis of him, that's fine. If you think Eovaldi is a lot better than his numbers this year, that's fine too (there are good reasons to think that, even if I'm still a skeptic).
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Post by manfred on Jul 25, 2018 13:49:19 GMT -5
Eovaldi was almost a 2 WAR pitcher for the Yankees. He is healthy again and only 28. Beeks has been very good this year and ok overall in the minors. Eovaldi can contribute this year; Beeks appears not to be able to do so.
I’ve said many times: I love trading future uncertainty for whatever counts as present certainty. Thus far, that gamble has worked for Dombrowski.
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Post by ponch73 on Jul 25, 2018 13:57:35 GMT -5
Everything is within the range of possible outcomes, from the Hall of Fame to him deciding to quit baseball tomorrow. It's just the likelihood of that outcome, right? So when you say something is a 2-3 standard deviation outcome, I read it as you saying it is 2-3 standard deviations above his expected 50% outcome. Meaning that there is roughly a 2.5% chance that he's a major league starter with a 4.25 ERA, and a 97.5% chance that he does not. If that's your analysis of him, that's fine. If you think Eovaldi is a lot better than his numbers this year, that's fine too (there are good reasons to think that, even if I'm still a skeptic). I'd phrase it differently because I'm not sure ERA is sufficient in and of itself to measure starting pitching performance. I think there's very, very low probability that Beeks gives you 5-6 quality starts out of 10 against MLB competition (you'd give Eovaldi credit for 6, if you include the game where he went 7 innings and gave up 2 runs before tiring in the 8th against the Yankees). Could Beeks put up a 4.25 ERA as a Tampa-special spot starter where he only has to pitch 2-4 innings per outing? Maybe, and the probability would be higher. I still think it's more likely that he flames out.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 25, 2018 13:59:28 GMT -5
It seems like whether Eovaldi can avoid/limit the long ball is a major factor in determining his value down the stretch. His 18.3% HR/FB rate is causing a pretty big discrepancy between his 4.28 FIP and his 3.49 xFIP. Although its tempting to regress that HR/FB% to the mean, he did have a 18.7% HR/FB rate in his 2016 season with the Yankees (albeit much lower rates in his previous seasons), and he throws a lot of strikes with his cutter in particular often catching the middle of the plate. Aside from the long ball, his stats have been very good this year.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2018 13:59:30 GMT -5
This isn’t statistics, it’s guessing. That’s fine but don’t act like it’s more than that.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 25, 2018 14:14:17 GMT -5
FWIW my opinion (which is worth as much as it costs all of you!) - I am good with this trade. I see it as improving the team.
Bigger concern - getting Joe Kelly "fixed". And having less Nunez playing.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 25, 2018 14:21:25 GMT -5
It seems like whether Eovaldi can avoid/limit the long ball is a major factor in determining his value down the stretch. His 18.3% HR/FB rate is causing a pretty big discrepancy between his 4.28 FIP and his 3.49 xFIP. Although its tempting to regress that HR/FB% to the mean, he did have a 18.7% HR/FB rate in his 2016 season with the Yankees (albeit much lower rates in his previous seasons), and he throws a lot of strikes with his cutter in particular often catching the middle of the plate. Aside from the long ball, his stats have been very good this year. 18.3% is 9th-worst in the majors for pitchers with 50+ IP. That is at least partially bad luck. Even if you just split the difference between his FIP and xFIP, you'd get about 3.88, which would put him around 50th best in the majors.
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Post by dmaineah on Jul 25, 2018 14:37:18 GMT -5
He should help the pitching staff get through the season & other then completely dominating through the end of the season I'd doubt he has a roster play off spot.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 25, 2018 14:40:59 GMT -5
I was hoping Beeks would be able to translate some of his minor league dominance to the majors. Oh well.
Eovaldi is a good fourth/fifth starter. If everyone was healthy, he’d be unnecessary. Nevertheless, with E-Rod and Wright hurt, the Red Sox needed him.
I’m fine with this trade.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 25, 2018 14:47:07 GMT -5
On the bright side, we have another pitcher with a hard enough fastball that we can peg Gurriel with for injuring E-rod.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 25, 2018 14:48:32 GMT -5
It seems like whether Eovaldi can avoid/limit the long ball is a major factor in determining his value down the stretch. His 18.3% HR/FB rate is causing a pretty big discrepancy between his 4.28 FIP and his 3.49 xFIP. Although its tempting to regress that HR/FB% to the mean, he did have a 18.7% HR/FB rate in his 2016 season with the Yankees (albeit much lower rates in his previous seasons), and he throws a lot of strikes with his cutter in particular often catching the middle of the plate. Aside from the long ball, his stats have been very good this year. 18.3% is 9th-worst in the majors for pitchers with 50+ IP. That is at least partially bad luck. Even if you just split the difference between his FIP and xFIP, you'd get about 3.88, which would put him around 50th best in the majors. He has the second-highest zone rate of anyone over 50 innings this year, and the fourth-lowest walk rate. That could definitely be driving the home run rate. Seems like he could stand to throw a few more chase pitches.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2018 14:54:19 GMT -5
I’m fine with the trade. It may not work out, but it’s very unlikely that losing this trade sets the franchise back in the years to come. Dombrowski will be forgiven for losing this trade if that’s the way it unfolds. He will not be forgiven for standing pat at the deadline in what could be a historically great season.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2018 15:01:32 GMT -5
Why Eovaldi's ERA is so high given his great slash line and wOBA allowed is a puzzle. Here's one clue ....
On 6/15 the Rays let him face the Yankees lineup a fourth time, after he'd put up a 7 6 2 2 0 5 line (he'd thrown just 87 pitches and presumably the bullpen needed rest). He actually got Gardner leading off, but then gave up singles to Judge and Gregorious, and they had him walk Stanton after the runners moved up on a throw. The relief allowed all three inherited runners to score.
Does anyone have a problem subtracting 0.1 2 3 3 1 0 from his season line to get a truer reading?
No one adjusts pitching lines for insanely slow hooks OR for inherited runners (any longer; BP used to do it).
I'm gonna look at more game logs a lot later tonight (probably).
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 25, 2018 15:03:44 GMT -5
Why Eovaldi's ERA is so high given his great slash line and wOBA allowed is a puzzle. Here's one clue ....
On 6/15 the Rays let him face the Yankees lineup a fourth time, after he'd put up a 7 6 2 2 0 5 line. He actually got Gardner leading off, but then gave up singles to Judge and Gregorious, and they had him walk Stanton after the runners moved up on a throw. The relief allowed all three inherited runners to score.
Does anyone have a problem subtracting 0.1 2 3 3 1 0 from his season line to get a truer reading?
No one adjusts pitching lines for insanely slow hooks OR for inherited runners (any longer; BP used to do it).
I'm gonna look at more game logs a lot later tonight (probably).
I appreciate the work you are doing, but I think that this only matters if the front office/management can see what you guys are seeing.
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Post by bosox81 on Jul 25, 2018 15:09:04 GMT -5
And true to form, DD is putting all the eggs in one basket. WS or bust this year folks. (Mathematically, I already know which one has the higher probability.)
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 25, 2018 15:17:07 GMT -5
And true to form, DD is putting all the eggs in one basket. WS or bust this year folks. (Mathematically, I already know which one has the higher probability.) Beeks is now all his eggs? If he is then our eggs were spoiled anyways.
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