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WAR and More (...what is it good for)
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Post by manfred on Jul 31, 2018 12:23:53 GMT -5
OK, I try to buy into the sabermetrics stuff but... how the devil is Lorenzo Cain the leader in WAR in the NL when he is not in the top-10 in any major statistic but SBs (with a not-great success rate)? Fine, he has a high dWAR, but how good a defender is he that he is the most valuable non-pitcher in the league? Those formulas are... peculiar.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 31, 2018 13:11:46 GMT -5
OK, I try to buy into the sabermetrics stuff but... how the devil is Lorenzo Cain the leader in WAR in the NL when he is not in the top-10 in any major statistic but SBs (with a not-great success rate)? Fine, he has a high dWAR, but how good a defender is he that he is the most valuable non-pitcher in the league? Those formulas are... peculiar. He has the 5th best OBP in the NL, and OBP is the single biggest component of offensive value. He's 19-for-23 on stolen bases, roughly 82% success rate, which is quite good. And he rates as one of the best defensive players in the game by just about every system out there. Also, Fangraphs WAR has him fifth in the NL. Remember that there's no official or definitive version of WAR, and that all these numbers are likely to be revised years after the fact when Fangraphs/BR/BP tweak their formulas.
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Post by manfred on Jul 31, 2018 15:02:05 GMT -5
OK, I try to buy into the sabermetrics stuff but... how the devil is Lorenzo Cain the leader in WAR in the NL when he is not in the top-10 in any major statistic but SBs (with a not-great success rate)? Fine, he has a high dWAR, but how good a defender is he that he is the most valuable non-pitcher in the league? Those formulas are... peculiar. He has the 5th best OBP in the NL, and OBP is the single biggest component of offensive value. He's 19-for-23 on stolen bases, roughly 82% success rate, which is quite good. And he rates as one of the best defensive players in the game by just about every system out there. Also, Fangraphs WAR has him fifth in the NL. Remember that there's no official or definitive version of WAR, and that all these numbers are likely to be revised years after the fact when Fangraphs/BR/BP tweak their formulas. Ok I missed on-base. But even with that, his OPS is .802. Respectable but top-5 player? Much less top player? All I am saying is that any formula that puts Lorenzo Cain — 8 HRs 29 RBI .294 BA 53 runs scored — in the top-5 is a wonky formula. I don’t care how good his defense is, within normal human standards.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 31, 2018 15:11:02 GMT -5
He has the 5th best OBP in the NL, and OBP is the single biggest component of offensive value. He's 19-for-23 on stolen bases, roughly 82% success rate, which is quite good. And he rates as one of the best defensive players in the game by just about every system out there. Also, Fangraphs WAR has him fifth in the NL. Remember that there's no official or definitive version of WAR, and that all these numbers are likely to be revised years after the fact when Fangraphs/BR/BP tweak their formulas. Ok I missed on-base. But even with that, his OPS is .802. Respectable but top-5 player? Much less top player? All I am saying is that any formula that puts Lorenzo Cain — 8 HRs 29 RBI .294 BA 53 runs scored — in the top-5 is a wonky formula. I don’t care how good his defense is, within normal human standards. War is adjusted based off of position also, CF get a bump because its a lite hitting position overall, corner OF, 1B, DH it can actually be negative. Nevermind D is huge to a players value, its why the great David Ortiz never put up massive war totals. Stick Cain at 1B and his war would not be even close to what it is. He'd likely be like a 2 war player at DH for example.
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Post by jmei on Jul 31, 2018 15:23:29 GMT -5
Ok I missed on-base. But even with that, his OPS is .802. Respectable but top-5 player? Much less top player? All I am saying is that any formula that puts Lorenzo Cain — 8 HRs 29 RBI .294 BA 53 runs scored — in the top-5 is a wonky formula. I don’t care how good his defense is, within normal human standards. Still less wonky than judging a player based on HRs, RBI, BA and runs scored.
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Post by manfred on Jul 31, 2018 22:05:47 GMT -5
Ok I missed on-base. But even with that, his OPS is .802. Respectable but top-5 player? Much less top player? All I am saying is that any formula that puts Lorenzo Cain — 8 HRs 29 RBI .294 BA 53 runs scored — in the top-5 is a wonky formula. I don’t care how good his defense is, within normal human standards. Still less wonky than judging a player based on HRs, RBI, BA and runs scored. Would you takeCain over Arenado?
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 31, 2018 23:06:54 GMT -5
Still less wonky than judging a player based on HRs, RBI, BA and runs scored. Would you takeCain over Arenado? Yep.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 31, 2018 23:22:43 GMT -5
Would you takeCain over Arenado? ... Yep. Here's another reason why: Arenado's home and away splits. Colorado is... different.
I | Split | G | GS | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | TB | GDP | HBP | SH | SF | IBB | ROE | BAbip | tOPS+ |
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| Home | 409 | 404 | 1740 | 1579 | 292 | 504 | 112 | 19 | 101 | 357 | 6 | 5 | 137 | 237 | .319 | .373 | .606 | .979 | 957 | 55 | 7 | 0 | 16 | 21 | 12 | .321 | 119 |
| Away | 410 | 405 | 1716 | 1556 | 198 | 412 | 94 | 6 | 75 | 228 | 7 | 7 | 129 | 290 | .265 | .321 | .478 | .798 | 743 | 39 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 14 | .279 | 81 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 7/31/2018.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 1, 2018 9:21:15 GMT -5
Still less wonky than judging a player based on HRs, RBI, BA and runs scored. Would you takeCain over Arenado? Arenado since the start of ‘16: 15.1 fWAR Cain, same time period: 10.0 fWAR I would take Arenado... based on his WAR.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 1, 2018 9:30:07 GMT -5
Just bunt against the shift, they said. It will be free hits, they said. Speaking of surprising WAR totals, anyone want to guess who has the 7th best fWAR in the AL this season? Hint, it’s Matt freakin Chapman. Best non-Simmons defender in the game this year per their numbers.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 1, 2018 9:36:28 GMT -5
There's an outside chance I'd have guessed he was in the Top 10.
There's a zero chance I'd have guessed he's in the Top 15 in OBP. He's a much, much better hitter than I realized.
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Post by manfred on Aug 1, 2018 9:57:35 GMT -5
Would you takeCain over Arenado? Arenado since the start of ‘16: 15.1 fWAR Cain, same time period: 10.0 fWAR I would take Arenado... based on his WAR. I mean this year.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 1, 2018 10:00:31 GMT -5
Arenado since the start of ‘16: 15.1 fWAR Cain, same time period: 10.0 fWAR I would take Arenado... based on his WAR. I mean this year. I don’t understand the question.
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Post by manfred on Aug 1, 2018 10:11:30 GMT -5
I don’t understand the question. Who has been more valuable — worth more wins to his team — Arenado or Cain? Matt Chapman or JD Martinez? Because if WAR is meant to indicate overall quality, it should serve to cross compare. If it is meant to represent quality by position, it should have 9 different (10?) categories. Maybe Chapman is worth more than other 3B, but that he is worth more than JDM — even with defense (and whatever else, he is second in errors)... shrug. All I am saying is WAR may have uses as a measure, but looking at the top-10 is not a good indicator of who the league’s most valuable players are.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 1, 2018 10:17:41 GMT -5
You asked who would he rather have. That's not "who is having the better season." I'd rather have Bryce Harper than Denard Span, but Span is having a better year.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 1, 2018 10:22:37 GMT -5
I don’t understand the question. Who has been more valuable — worth more wins to his team — Arenado or Cain? Matt Chapman or JD Martinez? Because if WAR is meant to indicate overall quality, it should serve to cross compare. If it is meant to represent quality by position, it should have 9 different (10?) categories. Maybe Chapman is worth more than other 3B, but that he is worth more than JDM — even with defense (and whatever else, he is second in errors)... shrug. All I am saying is WAR may have uses as a measure, but looking at the top-10 is not a good indicator of who the league’s most valuable players are. I think I’ve pointed out like half a dozen times that Cain isn’t even leading Arenado by one of the two major versions of WAR. Chapman and Martinez are similarly close enough to be a wash. I’m not sure why this is causing you so much heartburn.
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Post by manfred on Aug 1, 2018 10:40:02 GMT -5
Who has been more valuable — worth more wins to his team — Arenado or Cain? Matt Chapman or JD Martinez? Because if WAR is meant to indicate overall quality, it should serve to cross compare. If it is meant to represent quality by position, it should have 9 different (10?) categories. Maybe Chapman is worth more than other 3B, but that he is worth more than JDM — even with defense (and whatever else, he is second in errors)... shrug. All I am saying is WAR may have uses as a measure, but looking at the top-10 is not a good indicator of who the league’s most valuable players are. I think I’ve pointed out like half a dozen times that Cain isn’t even leading Arenado by one of the two major versions of WAR. Chapman and Martinez are similarly close enough to be a wash. I’m not sure why this is causing you so much heartburn. This isn’t the source of my heartburn... my beef (as much beef as I have) is that there is a trend to dismiss old school stats as unrepresentative in favor of stats purported to be more accurate... and I am suggesting that perhaps this is not the case. I know this is an annoying discussion, so I’ll leave it at that.
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Post by manfred on Aug 1, 2018 10:41:28 GMT -5
You asked who would he rather have. That's not "who is having the better season." I'd rather have Bryce Harper than Denard Span, but Span is having a better year. I suppose I assumed you’d rather have the guy having the better season. Whose production to this point would you rather have? Edit: is Denard Span really having a better year? Why? I mean this honestly: he has significantly lower numbers across the board except BA. I mean, Harper has been pretty bad, and he is terribly underperforming, but I don’t see why Span is better.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 1, 2018 10:49:36 GMT -5
Harper's underlying skills and rate stats and long-term production record mean that I would rather have him than Span the rest of the season. But are you asking, like retroactively? Who would I rather have had from April through July/ Obviously if an Aaron Hicks type of player out-produces a superior Bryce Harper for a period of time, I'd rather have had the superior production over that past period of time. But...so what? Worse players having periods of time where they outperform better ones isn't some newfangled statistical revolution stuff. That's gone on since the start of baseball and was reflected in traditional stats.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2018 10:52:55 GMT -5
I think I’ve pointed out like half a dozen times that Cain isn’t even leading Arenado by one of the two major versions of WAR. Chapman and Martinez are similarly close enough to be a wash. I’m not sure why this is causing you so much heartburn. This isn’t the source of my heartburn... my beef (as much beef as I have) is that there is a trend to dismiss old school stats as unrepresentative in favor of stats purported to be more accurate... and I am suggesting that perhaps this is not the case. I know this is an annoying discussion, so I’ll leave it at that. If you don't want to believe that defense and baserunning is important, then go ahead. But don't expect anyone else to.
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Post by manfred on Aug 1, 2018 10:54:49 GMT -5
Harper's underlying skills and rate stats and long-term production record mean that I would rather have him than Span the rest of the season. But are you asking, like retroactively? Who would I rather have had from April through July/ Obviously if an inferior player out-produces a superior player for a period of time, I'd rather have had the superior production over that past period of time. But...so what? Worse players having periods of time where they outperform better ones isn't some newfangled statistical revolution stuff. That's gone on since the start of baseball and was reflected in traditional stats. But in these instances the inferior players didn’t out perform: Harper has better numbers this season than Span, Arenado than Cain, Martinez than Chapman... but that is not reflected in WAR. As I wrote above, I’ll leave it at that. We are likely talk across each other, and I don’t want to gum up the board.
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Post by jmei on Aug 1, 2018 11:16:24 GMT -5
But in these instances the inferior players didn’t out perform: Harper has better numbers this season than Span, Arenado than Cain, Martinez than Chapman... but that is not reflected in WAR. As I wrote above, I’ll leave it at that. We are likely talk across each other, and I don’t want to gum up the board. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_questionThis is such an early 2000s discussion. At this point, I just don't have the patience to explain how WAR works anymore.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 1, 2018 11:53:44 GMT -5
Still less wonky than judging a player based on HRs, RBI, BA and runs scored. I've never quite understood how a mathematical formula with a dozen random variables and constants is less wonky than watching the game and reporting what happened. I like baseball statistics ( I started a sports analytics group in grad school) and I think they play their part, but they get applied in ways that frustrate me sometimes. Simply adding WAR up and using that as the sole source of comparison is one of them. Take a more topical example, Cain and Martinez were free agents last year, here's their recent WAR stats. Cain Martinez WAR (2015) 7.2 5.0 WAR (2016) 3.0 1.7 WAR (2017 5.3 4.2 Which one would you rather have? More importantly, who got paid more? Front offices know what these guys are worth beyond a single summary number and they have more analytic tools at their disposal to determine who should get paid. Also, Cain signed first and I didn't hear one person anywhere say "OK, Cain got 5/$80 so that's the realistic ceiling for Martinez." Everyone knows Martinez is more valuable than Cain, even if you can always write a number down to prove it. I think WAR is great, but flawed and the absolute certainty that tends to be associated with it is frustrating. It's a data point and generally a good one, but it's not the only data point. 1. Cain is a year and a half older than Martinez. Hitting free agency heading into your age-32 season is fundamentally different than in ones age-30 season. GMs take that into account. 2. Martinez's total WAR in his outstanding 2017 season was depressed because of his injuries. So Cain had a 25% higher WAR. but in nearly 45% more playing time. Because there wasn't any reason to believe the injury was chronic or recurring, they based their value on expected production. So Martinez was younger, and coming off a season during which he'd been a higher quality player per game/PA. 2. As FTHW said, the two most-quoted versions of WAR don't even agree on Cain. Fangraphs version has them very close in total value over the past three seasons, which makes Martinez significantly more valuable per plate-appearance. fWAR also has Martinez ahead of Cain this year.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2018 12:41:20 GMT -5
No one ever said that WAR is the only thing GMs use in handing out contracts. That's ridiculous. WAR judges the past, it doesn't predict the future.
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Post by jmei on Aug 1, 2018 13:17:58 GMT -5
I mean, knocking down the strawman that WAR is infallible and the only stat you should look at is another tired talking point that is so ten years ago. Literally no one thinks WAR is "all there is to know, that it is absolute, and there will be nothing added in the future." You want to criticize defensive metrics next? What about FIP versus RA for pitcher WAR? C'mon now.
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