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2018 Red Sox postseason roster
manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 24, 2018 18:46:29 GMT -5
There is no way, barring a spate of injuries, guys not on the 40-man and/or who have already performed in the majors are going to be on the roster.
Guys like Kelly, Hembree, Nunez, Holt... not saying they can’t get left off, but I doubt the squeeze comes from some curveball like Maddox et al. Lin is a sleeper for speed and glove, but I’d still be a bit surprised. Cora and DD have gone with these guys, and especially with the pen, chose not to trade for more help.
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Post by dmaineah on Aug 24, 2018 18:53:58 GMT -5
Still have 7 days to make a trade. I agree about Maddox, I just looked him up & he only had 2 innings pitched. For some reason I thought he'd been pitching longer.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 24, 2018 19:32:33 GMT -5
Think I’ll pass on Velazquez for the post-season roster
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 24, 2018 19:35:20 GMT -5
Think I’ll pass on Velazquez for the post-season roster I can't imagine that anyone thought he had a shot even before tonight. He's the definition of mediocre (but still very useful with the extra options).
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 24, 2018 19:46:42 GMT -5
Think I’ll pass on Velazquez for the post-season roster I can't imagine that anyone thought he had a shot even before tonight. He's the definition of mediocre (but still very useful with the extra options). Well, he’s been on quite a few proposed rosters.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 24, 2018 19:51:15 GMT -5
Starters (4)Sale Price Porcello Rodriguez Bullpen (8)Kimbrel Barnes Brasier Hembree Poyner Eovaldi Workman Johnson Catchers (2)Leon Swihart Infielders (7)Moreland Kinsler Devers Bogaerts Nunez or Holt Lin Pearce Outfielders (4)Benintendi Bradley Betts Martinez An open question is who do you want starting vs LHP at third base? Given Devers struggles vs them and his defensive inconsistency, I'd consider giving those starts to a more sure handed, RHH. The only problem is the only options we'll have for that are Nunez, unless we get Phillips on the roster soon. Holt has hit lefties fine (relative to his production vs RHP), but I'm not sure he's any better of a glove than Nunez at third. I like the idea of Lin on the roster, although his defense all around the infield hasn't been quite as good as expected, at the major league level. SSS, though. Give me Poyner as an option over Pomeranz and Kelly - would trust him a lot more. Went with Workman too, for similar reasons. No way Thornberg should be on the roster. RE: the lineup: Platoon Moreland and Pearce at 1B; consider starting Nunez/Holt/Lin over Devers vs. a LHP; split Leon/Swihart evenly; keep Martinez at DH every game unless there's no DH. Poyner? Are you sitting with Pedro? Right now, Nunez is playing well. He looks healthy and has been better than people are making him out to be. He’s the guy who starts versus a lefty in my opinion. Why the Poyner hate? Right now, I can't see a compelling case for why Pomeranz should make it over him. As for Velazquez, Eovaldi can handle whatever role we'd need Velazquez for. Johnson is both a lefty and "versatile", although that's less meaningful in a short postseason series. Depending on how Kelly finishes the season, there's a good case to have him over Workman or even Johnson.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 24, 2018 23:11:19 GMT -5
Going to try a different way to think about this - the locks, and the options.
My estimation of the roster - I have below 16 locks, and the other 9 bodies coming from 15 players.
With no trades and all reasonable guesses on healthy bodies, here is my 25 the postseason
Locks - Sale, Porcello, Price, Kimbrel, Barnes (5) Options - ERod, Eovaldi, Johnson, Brasier, Kelly, Workman, Hembree, Poyner, Wright, Velazquez, Thornburg, Pomeranz (12)
If we go with 11 pitchers, the next six are ERod, Eovaldi, Johnson, Brasier, Kelly and Workman. 12 pitchers, add Poyner.
That leaves Hembree, Wright, Velazquez, Thornburg and Pomeranz off the playoff roster.
Locks - Leon, Moreland, Kinsler, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Betts, Bradley, JDM, Nunez, Holt, Pearce (11)
Options - Swihart, Devers, Vazquez
need two more if we go with 12 pitchers - add Devers and Swihart. If 11 pitchers, add Vazquez.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 24, 2018 23:27:20 GMT -5
Going to try a different way to think about this - the locks, and the options. My estimation of the roster - I have below 16 locks, and the other 9 bodies coming from 15 players. With no trades and all reasonable guesses on healthy bodies, here is my 25 the postseason Locks - Sale, Porcello, Price, Kimbrel, Barnes (5) Options - ERod, Eovaldi, Johnson, Brasier, Kelly, Workman, Hembree, Poyner, Wright, Velazquez, Thornburg, Pomeranz (12) If we go with 11 pitchers, the next six are ERod, Eovaldi, Johnson, Brasier, Kelly and Workman. 12 pitchers, add Poyner. That leaves Hembree, Wright, Velazquez, Thornburg and Pomeranz off the playoff roster. Locks - Leon, Moreland, Kinsler, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Betts, Bradley, JDM, Nunez, Holt, Pearce (11) Options - Swihart, Devers, Vazquez need two more if we go with 12 pitchers - add Devers and Swihart. If 11 pitchers, add Vazquez. I don’t see why they’d take BOTH Nunez and Holt over Devers, who is their starting 3B. Nunez and Holt Velazquez and Johnson Vasquez and Leon These pairs (at least) are redundant— if pressed, they can get by with only one of the pair. I doubt Vasquez makes it. I doubt Velasquez makes it. Nunez and Holt might make it depending on space.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 25, 2018 1:35:56 GMT -5
We are not likely to get a burner, nor is one really needed due to existing Sox roster construction. Swihart, Holt and Nunez are all good runners off the bench, as is Lin. None of them are Roberts good, but all are good and offer great versatility and are already part of team winning chemistry. A burner, especially a one dimensional player, is even less important considering that all of Betts, Beni, Bradley, Bogie and Kinsler are also good runners. The Sox are fairly unique in having 5 starters and 3-4 off the bench who can run; that's most of the lineup. This means a healthy and resurgent Holt, Nunez and Swihart all make the postseason team, where they belong.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 25, 2018 2:13:26 GMT -5
I was going to start this thread about 10 day ago, and I was going to argue that it's mostly premature. Not only isn't it possible to predict who fills out the bullpen, bench, or rotation, I don't think it's possible to have a defensible opinion that isn't a guess.
For instance, it seems as if Kelly, Thornburg, Pomeranz, and Workman, together with longshots Johnson, Velazquez, Poyner, and Scott are (or will be) competing for the last two spots in the pen. Why would you spend any mental energy now trying to guess who wins that competition (or justify your guess), when you could just watch it? Having an opinion about how an inconsistent pitcher will perform in the next month is nearly 100% a reflection of whatever bias you have, and 0% rooted in reality.
I do think these things are true:
They're likely to carry 12 pitchers and a 4-man bench, but they could go with 11 and 5 (in which case the above list of guys may be competing for one spot, not two).
Sale and Price are your 1 and 2 starters and Eduardo Rodriguez, if he returns to form as seems very likely, is your 3rd best starter, although matchups may put someone else ahead of him versus a specific team.
Based on their body of work this year so far, Eovaldi has the edge on Porcello for the #4, but it's too soon to make the call.
Steven Wright, if he returns to form, which seems likelier than not, is on the roster, and has a chance to be a starter. There are scenarios where they use 5 starters in a 7-game series in order to give Sale extra rest, which is why having all 6 quality starters on the roster will be a good idea.
A re-injury or failed return by either E-Rod or Wright would elevate Johnson from a bullpen longshot and put him in the top tier of the battle for the last two spots. But you don't need him in the pen if you already have two better SP there.
The bench is trickier. And no one's mentioned the possibility of a Pedroia return, which can't be ruled out and which would complicate things quite a bit.
The only locks are Pearce and Holt.
That means Vazquez, Swihart, Nunez, and a potential PR acquisition are competing for two spots. So the PR means you either leave Nunez off the roster, or go to 11 pitchers. And if you leave Nunez off, then Swihart is clearly the choice for the second catcher ... but for all we know, CV returns in September and is good that he has to be on the roster.
If Pedey returns, the logical thing to do is to have him take Nunez's spot and give him or Kinsler a crash course in 3B.
What I think they may well do, and probably ought to do, is acquire a PR on 8/31 and option Workman or Velazquez until the PawSox season ends, which is a trivial absence. Whether or not that guy ends up on your roster is TBD and may even depend on the opponent of a given series.
Right now, I think these last two bench spots are completely up in the air and will depend on how all the candidates, plus Devers, perform, and even on how the bullpen shapes up (since an an 11-man staff is still an option and would be likelier if the battle for the last two spots is uninspiring).
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 25, 2018 8:04:37 GMT -5
I would say it is a good problem to have when their are so many guys fighting to make the 25 man roster for the playoffs, that is a lot of depth and a big reason why they are 8.5 games better than the next best team.
B Phillips is hitting over 400 for the month of August, will he get any consideration if he stays hot?
September will be deciding a lot of guys fates.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 25, 2018 8:15:43 GMT -5
I was going to start this thread about 10 day ago, and I was going to argue that it's mostly premature. Not only isn't it possible to predict who fills out the bullpen, bench, or rotation, I don't think it's possible to have a defensible opinion that isn't a guess.
For instance, it seems as if Kelly, Thornburg, Pomeranz, and Workman, together with longshots Johnson, Velazquez, Poyner, and Scott are (or will be) competing for the last two spots in the pen. Why would you spend any mental energy now trying to guess who wins that competition (or justify your guess), when you could just watch it? Having an opinion about how an inconsistent pitcher will perform in the next month is nearly 100% a reflection of whatever bias you have, and 0% rooted in reality.
I do think these things are true: They're likely to carry 12 pitchers and a 4-man bench, but they could go with 11 and 5 (in which case the above list of guys may be competing for one spot, not two).
Sale and Price are your 1 and 2 starters and Eduardo Rodriguez, if he returns to form as seems very likely, is your 3rd best starter, although matchups may put someone else ahead of him versus a specific team.
Based on their body of work this year so far, Eovaldi has the edge on Porcello for the #4, but it's too soon to make the call. Steven Wright, if he returns to form, which seems likelier than not, is on the roster, and has a chance to be a starter. There are scenarios where they use 5 starters in a 7-game series in order to give Sale extra rest, which is why having all 6 quality starters on the roster will be a good idea. A re-injury or failed return by either E-Rod or Wright would elevate Johnson from a bullpen longshot and put him in the top tier of the battle for the last two spots. But you don't need him in the pen if you already have two better SP there.
The bench is trickier. And no one's mentioned the possibility of a Pedroia return, which can't be ruled out and which would complicate things quite a bit. The only locks are Pearce and Holt. That means Vazquez, Swihart, Nunez, and a potential PR acquisition are competing for two spots. So the PR means you either leave Nunez off the roster, or go to 11 pitchers. And if you leave Nunez off, then Swihart is clearly the choice for the second catcher ... but for all we know, CV returns in September and is good that he has to be on the roster. If Pedey returns, the logical thing to do is to have him take Nunez's spot and give him or Kinsler a crash course in 3B.
What I think they may well do, and probably ought to do, is acquire a PR on 8/31 and option Workman or Velazquez until the PawSox season ends, which is a trivial absence. Whether or not that guy ends up on your roster is TBD and may even depend on the opponent of a given series.
Right now, I think these last two bench spots are completely up in the air and will depend on how all the candidates, plus Devers, perform, and even on how the bullpen shapes up (since an an 11-man staff is still an option and would be likelier if the battle for the last two spots is uninspiring).
These are prediction are all guesswork, but why spend energy? Lots of people make predictions at the beginning of the year what the standings are going to look like. Websites do. Fans do. Magazine are published with the picks. How about mock drafts? Lots of energy spent on those with a lot of unknown variables. At the end of the day how many more variables go into that which are much harder to predict (injuries, overperformance, underperformance, dumb luck) than trying to predict the post-season Red Sox roster that's just about six weeks away in which we know most of who the players are (barring unforeseen injuries) and are debating about a half a dozen spots in which you can reasonably guess who'll get those spots but yeah, you're still putting out your best educated guess, which could be totally wrong. I like putting the energy out for that (really doesn't require that much energy) and then watching to see if the results match my expectations. I certainly wouldn't have predicted last year that Austin Maddox would have taken a bullpen job away from Matt Barnes. And I think Heath Hembree didn't get a spot either to my surprise although I could be wrong about that. I do hope that somebody comes up and has an eye opening performance and I guess that would be somebody like a Bobby Poyner or a Travis Lakins, or maybe there is a last second roster surprise like a pinch-runner (too bad the Reds pulled back Billy Hamilton) or a reliever (fat chance on that). Honestly as I see it, barring injuries or a catastrophic month, there are 13 regulars/bench players (all but Vazquez) that are locks and 8 pitchers (the 5 starters, Kimbrel, Barnes, and most likely Hembree if he avoids a September meltdown) that are virtual locks to make the post-season roster and 4 spots that are up in the air (although I'd expect Brasier to get a spot if he avoids a meltdown) which would whittle the roster number question to 3 spots.
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Post by awall on Aug 25, 2018 9:11:23 GMT -5
I was going to start this thread about 10 day ago, and I was going to argue that it's mostly premature. Not only isn't it possible to predict who fills out the bullpen, bench, or rotation, I don't think it's possible to have a defensible opinion that isn't a guess.
For instance, it seems as if Kelly, Thornburg, Pomeranz, and Workman, together with longshots Johnson, Velazquez, Poyner, and Scott are (or will be) competing for the last two spots in the pen. Why would you spend any mental energy now trying to guess who wins that competition (or justify your guess), when you could just watch it? Having an opinion about how an inconsistent pitcher will perform in the next month is nearly 100% a reflection of whatever bias you have, and 0% rooted in reality.
I do think these things are true: They're likely to carry 12 pitchers and a 4-man bench, but they could go with 11 and 5 (in which case the above list of guys may be competing for one spot, not two).
Sale and Price are your 1 and 2 starters and Eduardo Rodriguez, if he returns to form as seems very likely, is your 3rd best starter, although matchups may put someone else ahead of him versus a specific team.
Based on their body of work this year so far, Eovaldi has the edge on Porcello for the #4, but it's too soon to make the call.
Steven Wright, if he returns to form, which seems likelier than not, is on the roster, and has a chance to be a starter. There are scenarios where they use 5 starters in a 7-game series in order to give Sale extra rest, which is why having all 6 quality starters on the roster will be a good idea.
A re-injury or failed return by either E-Rod or Wright would elevate Johnson from a bullpen longshot and put him in the top tier of the battle for the last two spots. But you don't need him in the pen if you already have two better SP there.
The bench is trickier. And no one's mentioned the possibility of a Pedroia return, which can't be ruled out and which would complicate things quite a bit.
The only locks are Pearce and Holt.
That means Vazquez, Swihart, Nunez, and a potential PR acquisition are competing for two spots. So the PR means you either leave Nunez off the roster, or go to 11 pitchers. And if you leave Nunez off, then Swihart is clearly the choice for the second catcher ... but for all we know, CV returns in September and is good that he has to be on the roster.
If Pedey returns, the logical thing to do is to have him take Nunez's spot and give him or Kinsler a crash course in 3B.
What I think they may well do, and probably ought to do, is acquire a PR on 8/31 and option Workman or Velazquez until the PawSox season ends, which is a trivial absence. Whether or not that guy ends up on your roster is TBD and may even depend on the opponent of a given series.
Right now, I think these last two bench spots are completely up in the air and will depend on how all the candidates, plus Devers, perform, and even on how the bullpen shapes up (since an an 11-man staff is still an option and would be likelier if the battle for the last two spots is uninspiring).
I really appreciate the analysis you bring to us. But you’ve kind of been on a kick of talking down to us about how to be fans. If you believe spending time thinking about these things is a waste of time at this point in the season, why not just ignore it instead of insinuating that we are less sophisticated baseball people?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 25, 2018 10:01:51 GMT -5
I was going to start this thread about 10 day ago, and I was going to argue that it's mostly premature. Not only isn't it possible to predict who fills out the bullpen, bench, or rotation, I don't think it's possible to have a defensible opinion that isn't a guess.
For instance, it seems as if Kelly, Thornburg, Pomeranz, and Workman, together with longshots Johnson, Velazquez, Poyner, and Scott are (or will be) competing for the last two spots in the pen. Why would you spend any mental energy now trying to guess who wins that competition (or justify your guess), when you could just watch it? Having an opinion about how an inconsistent pitcher will perform in the next month is nearly 100% a reflection of whatever bias you have, and 0% rooted in reality.
I do think these things are true:
They're likely to carry 12 pitchers and a 4-man bench, but they could go with 11 and 5 (in which case the above list of guys may be competing for one spot, not two).
Sale and Price are your 1 and 2 starters and Eduardo Rodriguez, if he returns to form as seems very likely, is your 3rd best starter, although matchups may put someone else ahead of him versus a specific team.
Based on their body of work this year so far, Eovaldi has the edge on Porcello for the #4, but it's too soon to make the call.
Steven Wright, if he returns to form, which seems likelier than not, is on the roster, and has a chance to be a starter. There are scenarios where they use 5 starters in a 7-game series in order to give Sale extra rest, which is why having all 6 quality starters on the roster will be a good idea.
A re-injury or failed return by either E-Rod or Wright would elevate Johnson from a bullpen longshot and put him in the top tier of the battle for the last two spots. But you don't need him in the pen if you already have two better SP there.
The bench is trickier. And no one's mentioned the possibility of a Pedroia return, which can't be ruled out and which would complicate things quite a bit.
The only locks are Pearce and Holt.
That means Vazquez, Swihart, Nunez, and a potential PR acquisition are competing for two spots. So the PR means you either leave Nunez off the roster, or go to 11 pitchers. And if you leave Nunez off, then Swihart is clearly the choice for the second catcher ... but for all we know, CV returns in September and is good that he has to be on the roster.
If Pedey returns, the logical thing to do is to have him take Nunez's spot and give him or Kinsler a crash course in 3B.
What I think they may well do, and probably ought to do, is acquire a PR on 8/31 and option Workman or Velazquez until the PawSox season ends, which is a trivial absence. Whether or not that guy ends up on your roster is TBD and may even depend on the opponent of a given series.
Right now, I think these last two bench spots are completely up in the air and will depend on how all the candidates, plus Devers, perform, and even on how the bullpen shapes up (since an an 11-man staff is still an option and would be likelier if the battle for the last two spots is uninspiring).
Why not? Some of us clearly find it fun. And despite your scolding, you spent a bit of time sharing your views.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 25, 2018 10:21:53 GMT -5
I was going to start this thread about 10 day ago, and I was going to argue that it's mostly premature. Not only isn't it possible to predict who fills out the bullpen, bench, or rotation, I don't think it's possible to have a defensible opinion that isn't a guess.
For instance, it seems as if Kelly, Thornburg, Pomeranz, and Workman, together with longshots Johnson, Velazquez, Poyner, and Scott are (or will be) competing for the last two spots in the pen. Why would you spend any mental energy now trying to guess who wins that competition (or justify your guess), when you could just watch it? Having an opinion about how an inconsistent pitcher will perform in the next month is nearly 100% a reflection of whatever bias you have, and 0% rooted in reality.
I do think these things are true: They're likely to carry 12 pitchers and a 4-man bench, but they could go with 11 and 5 (in which case the above list of guys may be competing for one spot, not two).
Sale and Price are your 1 and 2 starters and Eduardo Rodriguez, if he returns to form as seems very likely, is your 3rd best starter, although matchups may put someone else ahead of him versus a specific team.
Based on their body of work this year so far, Eovaldi has the edge on Porcello for the #4, but it's too soon to make the call. Steven Wright, if he returns to form, which seems likelier than not, is on the roster, and has a chance to be a starter. There are scenarios where they use 5 starters in a 7-game series in order to give Sale extra rest, which is why having all 6 quality starters on the roster will be a good idea. A re-injury or failed return by either E-Rod or Wright would elevate Johnson from a bullpen longshot and put him in the top tier of the battle for the last two spots. But you don't need him in the pen if you already have two better SP there.
The bench is trickier. And no one's mentioned the possibility of a Pedroia return, which can't be ruled out and which would complicate things quite a bit. The only locks are Pearce and Holt. That means Vazquez, Swihart, Nunez, and a potential PR acquisition are competing for two spots. So the PR means you either leave Nunez off the roster, or go to 11 pitchers. And if you leave Nunez off, then Swihart is clearly the choice for the second catcher ... but for all we know, CV returns in September and is good that he has to be on the roster. If Pedey returns, the logical thing to do is to have him take Nunez's spot and give him or Kinsler a crash course in 3B.
What I think they may well do, and probably ought to do, is acquire a PR on 8/31 and option Workman or Velazquez until the PawSox season ends, which is a trivial absence. Whether or not that guy ends up on your roster is TBD and may even depend on the opponent of a given series.
Right now, I think these last two bench spots are completely up in the air and will depend on how all the candidates, plus Devers, perform, and even on how the bullpen shapes up (since an an 11-man staff is still an option and would be likelier if the battle for the last two spots is uninspiring).
Why not? Some of us clearly find it fun. And despite your scolding, you spent a bit of time sharing your views. I'm just happy as hell we get to think about post-season rosters. The reality is that there's about 15 teams that have fanbases who could never even consider these types of things. And here we are, basically speculating about these post-season roster since April (as opposed to July where we're hoping they get in) when the Sox were 17-2. I think it's pretty cool that we've been able to do that this year. Certainly couldn't do that in 2012, 2014 and 2015.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 25, 2018 11:05:30 GMT -5
Back to Lin: if we assume the post season roster is basically the roster when guys are healthy (Devers at 3B, Sale etc)... but not guys who have missed most of the season (Wright and Vasquez), my big question is about bench speed. Who is the fastest bench player? Holt? Swihart? Do they want a faster sub, and would Lin be that guy?
In other words, since you no longer need to think about innings eaters or subs for days off (hence no Velasquez and maybe no Nunez), do you carry someone whose value is almost exclusively a late steal or scoring from first? And who would that be?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 25, 2018 11:06:01 GMT -5
I get what Eric is saying. The postseason roster will be decided largely by how everyone is doing in September. There are way too many players who are too close to each other that it's impossible to decide now. I mean some people think Poyner will be on the roster, but that would change if he gave up runs in consecutive appearances, let alone if he was terrible for the whole month.
I also find it absurd that some people are suggesting that Devers not make the roster.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 25, 2018 11:27:56 GMT -5
I get what Eric is saying. The postseason roster will be decided largely by how everyone is doing in September. There are way too many players who are too close to each other that it's impossible to decide now. I mean some people think Poyner will be on the roster, but that would change if he gave up runs in consecutive appearances, let alone if he was terrible for the whole month. I also find it absurd that some people are suggesting that Devers not make the roster. Only the margins will be decided in September. Thinking in reverse: no amount of suck in Sept. will keep most guys off: Sale Price Porcello ERod (if healthy) Kimbrel Barnes Leon Moreland Pearce Kinsler Bogaerts Devers Beni JBJ Mookie JDM A few guys who’d have to be catastrophic: Swihart Holt Kelly Hembree Eovaldi That is 21. Figure Johnson is likely, Brasier, and you are at 23. So the to-be-decided in any real way is small and could be dictated by perceived need (speed? Lefty in the pen? Another catcher to free Swihart to be a super-sub? etc). Edit: I suppose Holt and Nunez could be in a September competition, but I imagine Holt is the more valuable of the two and would need to be truly horrific to lose out.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 25, 2018 15:23:12 GMT -5
I get what Eric is saying. The postseason roster will be decided largely by how everyone is doing in September. There are way too many players who are too close to each other that it's impossible to decide now. I mean some people think Poyner will be on the roster, but that would change if he gave up runs in consecutive appearances, let alone if he was terrible for the whole month. I also find it absurd that some people are suggesting that Devers not make the roster. Only the margins will be decided in September. Thinking in reverse: no amount of suck in Sept. will keep most guys off: Sale Price Porcello ERod (if healthy) Kimbrel Barnes Leon Moreland Pearce Kinsler Bogaerts Devers Beni JBJ Mookie JDM A few guys who’d have to be catastrophic: Swihart Holt Kelly Hembree Eovaldi That is 21. Figure Johnson is likely, Brasier, and you are at 23. So the to-be-decided in any real way is small and could be dictated by perceived need (speed? Lefty in the pen? Another catcher to free Swihart to be a super-sub? etc). Edit: I suppose Holt and Nunez could be in a September competition, but I imagine Holt is the more valuable of the two and would need to be truly horrific to lose out. Out of your group that would need to be catastrophic I only agree with Swihart and Eovaldi. With Kinsler and his D at 2B, it could easily mean Nunez who plays 3B better than Holt is a better option. Kelly WHIP the last 3 months is 2.077, 1.759 and 1.385, but in August guys are batting. 290 against him and at anytime he can just start walking guys. Hembree WHIP is 1.548 and 1.765, while giving up 3 HRs in August and walking a crap load of people. June feels like a long time ago. Braiser should easily be a lock. I see no reason to have Johnson on the team, not with a better starter already in the pen. There is a massive group that are playing to make the playoffs. Just remember you want the players currently playing the best. For example Hembree crazy good June, or Kelly's very good April and May means nothing in the playoffs unless they are pitching well.
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Post by dmaineah on Aug 25, 2018 15:54:11 GMT -5
Based on their body of work this year so far, Eovaldi has the edge on Porcello for the #4, but it's too soon to make the call.
That's crazy! Porcello's body of work this year is far superior to Eovaldi's and it's not to early to make the call.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 28, 2018 22:12:10 GMT -5
Getting murkier with the pen struggling so much. With ERod, Sale and Wright (perhaps) on the way back - and if we include Poyner, we have a mess of arms to sort through - the last games of the season are really important for some of the fellows pitching on the fringe.
if we carry 12 pitchers -
starters - Sale, Porcello, Price, ERod (4) pen - Eovaldi, Johnson, Velazquez, Kimbrel, Barnes, Kelly, Hembree, Pomeranz, Brasier, Thornburg, Workman, Poyner, Wright (13)
meaning 5 gotta go. Velazquez, Pomeranz, Thornburg, Hembree and Wright? If we carry 11 pitchers, drop Johnson as well?
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cdj
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Posts: 14,200
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Post by cdj on Aug 28, 2018 22:58:27 GMT -5
Poyner got lit up in Pawtucket tonight 🙃
I honestly have no idea what this playoff bullpen will look like. Gonna be....”exciting”
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Post by orion09 on Aug 29, 2018 0:08:57 GMT -5
Getting murkier with the pen struggling so much. With ERod, Sale and Wright (perhaps) on the way back - and if we include Poyner, we have a mess of arms to sort through - the last games of the season are really important for some of the fellows pitching on the fringe. if we carry 12 pitchers - starters - Sale, Porcello, Price, ERod (4) pen - Eovaldi, Johnson, Velazquez, Kimbrel, Barnes, Kelly, Hembree, Pomeranz, Brasier, Thornburg, Workman, Poyner, Wright (13) meaning 5 gotta go. Velazquez, Pomeranz, Thornburg, Hembree and Wright? If we carry 11 pitchers, drop Johnson as well? Here's a graph showing Hembree's 4-game rolling average for LOB% and Hard hit%. He's had a bad August, but seemed to be trending back in the right direction. (The graph doesn't include tonight's game.) Something to keep an eye on - whether he bounces back in September or not.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 29, 2018 3:08:18 GMT -5
I was going to start this thread about 10 day ago, and I was going to argue that it's mostly premature. Not only isn't it possible to predict who fills out the bullpen, bench, or rotation, I don't think it's possible to have a defensible opinion that isn't a guess.
For instance, it seems as if Kelly, Thornburg, Pomeranz, and Workman, together with longshots Johnson, Velazquez, Poyner, and Scott are (or will be) competing for the last two spots in the pen. Why would you spend any mental energy now trying to guess who wins that competition (or justify your guess), when you could just watch it? Having an opinion about how an inconsistent pitcher will perform in the next month is nearly 100% a reflection of whatever bias you have, and 0% rooted in reality.
I do think these things are true: They're likely to carry 12 pitchers and a 4-man bench, but they could go with 11 and 5 (in which case the above list of guys may be competing for one spot, not two).
Sale and Price are your 1 and 2 starters and Eduardo Rodriguez, if he returns to form as seems very likely, is your 3rd best starter, although matchups may put someone else ahead of him versus a specific team.
Based on their body of work this year so far, Eovaldi has the edge on Porcello for the #4, but it's too soon to make the call.
Steven Wright, if he returns to form, which seems likelier than not, is on the roster, and has a chance to be a starter. There are scenarios where they use 5 starters in a 7-game series in order to give Sale extra rest, which is why having all 6 quality starters on the roster will be a good idea.
A re-injury or failed return by either E-Rod or Wright would elevate Johnson from a bullpen longshot and put him in the top tier of the battle for the last two spots. But you don't need him in the pen if you already have two better SP there.
The bench is trickier. And no one's mentioned the possibility of a Pedroia return, which can't be ruled out and which would complicate things quite a bit.
The only locks are Pearce and Holt.
That means Vazquez, Swihart, Nunez, and a potential PR acquisition are competing for two spots. So the PR means you either leave Nunez off the roster, or go to 11 pitchers. And if you leave Nunez off, then Swihart is clearly the choice for the second catcher ... but for all we know, CV returns in September and is good that he has to be on the roster.
If Pedey returns, the logical thing to do is to have him take Nunez's spot and give him or Kinsler a crash course in 3B.
What I think they may well do, and probably ought to do, is acquire a PR on 8/31 and option Workman or Velazquez until the PawSox season ends, which is a trivial absence. Whether or not that guy ends up on your roster is TBD and may even depend on the opponent of a given series.
Right now, I think these last two bench spots are completely up in the air and will depend on how all the candidates, plus Devers, perform, and even on how the bullpen shapes up (since an an 11-man staff is still an option and would be likelier if the battle for the last two spots is uninspiring).
I really appreciate the analysis you bring to us. But you’ve kind of been on a kick of talking down to us about how to be fans. If you believe spending time thinking about these things is a waste of time at this point in the season, why not just ignore it instead of insinuating that we are less sophisticated baseball people? I was actually not remotely insinuating that you're less sophisticated baseball people. I was insinuating that you're less sophisticated people, period.
Yeah, I was in a pissy mood when I wrote that. I actually knew I was sounding like a dick and didn't care! Sometimes you just feel like scolding people for no good reason.
The only thing I really object to is people "predicting" how people will do in the remaining days based on whether they like the guy or not. I understand that it's human nature to view things emotionally more than rationally, but I find it tiresome when it becomes all emotion.
I actually misrepresented myself: a set of guesses, presented as such, is fun and is interesting. I balk at the guesses being passed off as more than that, as what should be done or what is going to happen. Did anyone actually do that? I don't know. I was in a pissy mood!
The battles for the last spots are going to be very interesting. It would make us all feel better if the battle were being waged in terms of who's playing best, rather than who's playing least badly.
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Post by awall on Aug 29, 2018 6:57:43 GMT -5
I really appreciate the analysis you bring to us. But you’ve kind of been on a kick of talking down to us about how to be fans. If you believe spending time thinking about these things is a waste of time at this point in the season, why not just ignore it instead of insinuating that we are less sophisticated baseball people? I was actually not remotely insinuating that you're less sophisticated baseball people. I was insinuating that you're less sophisticated people, period.
Yeah, I was in a pissy mood when I wrote that. I actually knew I was sounding like a dick and didn't care! Sometimes you just feel like scolding people for no good reason.
The only thing I really object to is people "predicting" how people will do in the remaining days based on whether they like the guy or not. I understand that it's human nature to view things emotionally more than rationally, but I find it tiresome when it becomes all emotion.
I actually misrepresented myself: a set of guesses, presented as such, is fun and is interesting. I balk at the guesses being passed off as more than that, as what should be done or what is going to happen. Did anyone actually do that? I don't know. I was in a pissy mood!
The battles for the last spots are going to be very interesting. It would make us all feel better if the battle were being waged in terms of who's playing best, rather than who's playing least badly. Fair enough, we all have pissy days.
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