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Catcher in 2019 (4/16: Swihart DFA'd)
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 17, 2018 11:18:07 GMT -5
Ah yeah, I forgot that both Nunez and Holt would be out of the regular lineup with Pedroia back. Pedroia coming back pretty much means they have to trade a catcher or dump Nunez.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 17, 2018 11:22:41 GMT -5
Ah yeah, I forgot that both Nunez and Holt would be out of the regular lineup with Pedroia back. Pedroia coming back pretty much means they have to trade a catcher or dump Nunez. Yup and also if they want Lin on the roster. As that 13 is constructed, there's no reasonable backup SS.
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Post by Canseco on Dec 17, 2018 11:25:03 GMT -5
Ah yeah, I forgot that both Nunez and Holt would be out of the regular lineup with Pedroia back. Pedroia coming back pretty much means they have to trade a catcher or dump Nunez. The Sox *should* be ready to do both. I’d like to see DD move Nuñez and León, let Holt and Lin be utiliymen, and carry an extra arm.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 17, 2018 11:35:58 GMT -5
If Pedroia is healthy, I want Nunez traded. Besides playing shortstop, Lin is better at every phase of baseball with the exception of HRs. Even if we ate a couple million of Nunez' salary, we'd still have a couple million off the books.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 17, 2018 12:14:41 GMT -5
I don't view Nunez as playable at 2B. Then again, I wanted him DFA'd a bunch of times last year and then he goes and hits that huge pinch hit 3 run HR against the Dodgers, so I know nothing.
Lin will be pretty huge in 2020, either as the new SS or the new Brock Holt.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 17, 2018 13:43:51 GMT -5
I'd be surprised to see Nunez cut. I was surprised to see Hanley cut, but I think Cora likes Nunez better for the clubhouse as he won't grouse if he's not in the lineup.
They got by with Holt being the backup SS to Bogaerts and when Bogaerts got DLed, that's when we saw Lin.
Lin has options so I don't think he'll be up unless they truly need him. I would anticipate seeing Nunez pretty much the whole year. I think they like him as the 3b should Devers get injured or struggle. As it was Devers was on the DL three times last year I believe.
I think the Red Sox like having depth. If you keep Lin on the roster and somebody gets hurt, then who gets called up? I think the Sox like having both Nunez and Lin as possibilities.
And another reason for going with 4 subs is to keep Brian Johnson on the roster all season as he's out of options. He's hardly ideal in the bullpen, but he's a spot starter/long reliever and they'll need a starter at some point during the season. Plus then he's around for 2020 to possibly be one of five starters when Porcello is likely gone.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 29, 2018 17:56:14 GMT -5
Market update:
First the Braves were the Realmuto leaders, then they dropped out. That left the Mets as the leaders, and they signed Ramos. It certainly seems as if the Marlins are asking too much.
Given that, it's hard to see the Dodgers paying their asking price when Austin Barnes is really good (2.3 WAR/400 last year). They would need to add a backup, though, so you can add them to the Leon list.
The Reds have never made sense to me as a target, given that they seem at least a year from contending. Nor do any of the rumored teams that already have a solid catcher -- Brewers, Rays, Padres -- make sense if the asking price is currently high.
That might well leave the Marlins with just two suitors, the A's and the Angels, neither of whom have been linked to him yet. The Marlins will have to bite the bullet if they want to avoid getting even less value for him later.
Meanwhile, the Indians' mini-rebuild leaves that division wide open and makes the rumored Grandal to the White Sox still likely.
The way I therefore read it, you have the Dodgers, Angels / A's Realmuto loser, Cardinals, and Cubs all hot on Leon, with the losers competing for Maldonado. Or vice versa. There may be other teams looking for a quality backup, but that's already a good situation.
With just one team in real need for a starting catcher (Realmuto loser), I don't see any chance of a Swihart trade.
Another one bites the bullet: Angels gamble on a Lucroy defensive resurrection.
We're down to two teams that don't have a starting catcher (White Sox, A's). ChiSox are finalists for Machado, so that might be holding up their Grandal plans.
Meanwhile, it looks like the Marlins will have to drop their price significantly for Realmuto, and end up dealing him to a team that has at least an OK starter. You might recall the Twins having two gigantic offers on the table for Johan Santana, holding out for more, and having the Sox and Yankees both withdraw their offers the next day. They ended up getting much less. It breaks my heart to see a team owned by Derek Jeter run so ineptly.
Given that:
1) Keeping Swihart has always made the most sense
2) The excess market for starting catching is down to either zero or one (as the team that trades for Realmuto could deal their catcher to the A's)
3) Leon is a perfect fit as a backup for both the Cubs are their arch-rivals Cardinals, and a very good one for several other teams.
... you have to ask why a Leon trade hasn't already happened. And I think the answer must be that one or more teams with an interest in Grandal or Realmuto is interested in Leon as a starter (or is willing to pay a premium for Swihart, probably a 5%-10% likelihood) and has told the Red Sox not to deal anyone until they've filled their own catcher position. Could that club be the White Sox? That would be logical. But it could also be the Dodgers who are thinking either Realmuto / Barnes or Barnes / Leon.
Machado to the Yankees next week (in "in early January," per a tweet yesterday from Dan Clark) could cause a lot of dominoes to start to fall.
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Post by kingstephanos on Dec 29, 2018 23:47:05 GMT -5
No snark intended here... but by what analytic and/or on-field barometer would a MLB team be longing for Leon as their starting catcher?
It couldn't be his wRC+ (33) or fWAR (-0.09) values.
While pitch framing is nice, the replacement (to below replacement) level of offense mitigates that, imo.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 30, 2018 0:37:28 GMT -5
No snark intended here... but by what analytic and/or on-field barometer would a MLB team be longing for Leon as their starting catcher? It couldn't be his wRC+ (33) or fWAR (-0.09) values. While pitch framing is nice, the replacement (to below replacement) level of offense mitigates that, imo. Great pitch-calling.
Is it incredible that a guy could knock 0.18 off the team ERA when he catches, or add 0.18? ? That not only seems seems perfectly credible, it seems likely.
The difference between Yasmani Grandal and Sandy Leon last year, per 105 games, was 4.2 WAR, exactly 40 runs. That's includes all offense and all defense and pitch framing, but not pitch-calling.
That 4.2 WAR or 40 runs is also 0.35 points of ERA when you catch the 105 games (including 8% extra unearned runs). It's the difference between the two catchers I just imagined.
IOW, it seems either perfectly reasonable or likely that a catcher's pitch-calling ability represents about half his value. This is getting more and more important as teams takes an analytic approach to it.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 30, 2018 2:12:16 GMT -5
No snark intended here... but by what analytic and/or on-field barometer would a MLB team be longing for Leon as their starting catcher? It couldn't be his wRC+ (33) or fWAR (-0.09) values. While pitch framing is nice, the replacement (to below replacement) level of offense mitigates that, imo. Great pitch-calling.
Is it incredible that a guy could knock 0.18 off the team ERA when he catches, or add 0.18? ? That not only seems seems perfectly credible, it seems likely.
The difference between Yasmani Grandal and Sandy Leon last year, per 105 games, was 4.2 WAR, exactly 40 runs. That's includes all offense and all defense and pitch framing, but not pitch-calling.
That 4.2 WAR or 40 runs is also 0.35 points of ERA when you catch the 105 games (including 8% extra unearned runs). It's the difference between the two catchers I just imagined.
IOW, it seems either perfectly reasonable or likely that a catcher's pitch-calling ability represents about half his value. This is getting more and more important as teams takes an analytic approach to it.
I hugely feel that there's a bias here. Can't prove it one way or or another, certainly can't disprove Leon as a catcher defensively, but I imagine the difference between no Leon and Leon isn't the difference between 25-50% less catcher ERA wise or defensively wise. Wouldn't be the first time something is overvalued on the board. My take of course. The Sox can't really fix this problem because of the state of their farm system, but I just wanted to point this out.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 30, 2018 9:04:01 GMT -5
Great pitch-calling.
Is it incredible that a guy could knock 0.18 off the team ERA when he catches, or add 0.18? ? That not only seems seems perfectly credible, it seems likely.
The difference between Yasmani Grandal and Sandy Leon last year, per 105 games, was 4.2 WAR, exactly 40 runs. That's includes all offense and all defense and pitch framing, but not pitch-calling.
That 4.2 WAR or 40 runs is also 0.35 points of ERA when you catch the 105 games (including 8% extra unearned runs). It's the difference between the two catchers I just imagined.
IOW, it seems either perfectly reasonable or likely that a catcher's pitch-calling ability represents about half his value. This is getting more and more important as teams takes an analytic approach to it.
I hugely feel that there's a bias here. Can't prove it one way or or another, certainly can't disprove Leon as a catcher defensively, but I imagine the difference between no Leon and Leon isn't the difference between 25-50% less catcher ERA wise or defensively wise. Wouldn't be the first time something is overvalued on the board. My take of course. The Sox can't really fix this problem because of the state of their farm system, but I just wanted to point this out. If it's a problem on the board, it's also a problem for the 108 win WS championship Red Sox, who used Leon as the starter for most of the season despite his "bad" public statistics.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 30, 2018 9:12:25 GMT -5
Market update: First the Braves were the Realmuto leaders, then they dropped out. That left the Mets as the leaders, and they signed Ramos. It certainly seems as if the Marlins are asking too much. Given that, it's hard to see the Dodgers paying their asking price when Austin Barnes is really good (2.3 WAR/400 last year). They would need to add a backup, though, so you can add them to the Leon list. The Reds have never made sense to me as a target, given that they seem at least a year from contending. Nor do any of the rumored teams that already have a solid catcher -- Brewers, Rays, Padres -- make sense if the asking price is currently high. That might well leave the Marlins with just two suitors, the A's and the Angels, neither of whom have been linked to him yet. The Marlins will have to bite the bullet if they want to avoid getting even less value for him later.
Meanwhile, the Indians' mini-rebuild leaves that division wide open and makes the rumored Grandal to the White Sox still likely. The way I therefore read it, you have the Dodgers, Angels / A's Realmuto loser, Cardinals, and Cubs all hot on Leon, with the losers competing for Maldonado. Or vice versa. There may be other teams looking for a quality backup, but that's already a good situation.
With just one team in real need for a starting catcher (Realmuto loser), I don't see any chance of a Swihart trade.
Another one bites the bullet: Angels gamble on a Lucroy defensive resurrection. We're down to two teams that don't have a starting catcher (White Sox, A's). ChiSox are finalists for Machado, so that might be holding up their Grandal plans. Meanwhile, it looks like the Marlins will have to drop their price significantly for Realmuto, and end up dealing him to a team that has at least an OK starter. You might recall the Twins having two gigantic offers on the table for Johan Santana, holding out for more, and having the Sox and Yankees both withdraw their offers the next day. They ended up getting much less. It breaks my heart to see a team owned by Derek Jeter run so ineptly.
Given that: 1) Keeping Swihart has always made the most sense 2) The excess market for starting catching is down to either zero or one (as the team that trades for Realmuto could deal their catcher to the A's) 3) Leon is a perfect fit as a backup for both the Cubs are their arch-rivals Cardinals, and a very good one for several other teams.
... you have to ask why a Leon trade hasn't already happened. And I think the answer must be that one or more teams with an interest in Grandal or Realmuto is interested in Leon as a starter (or is willing to pay a premium for Swihart, probably a 5%-10% likelihood) and has told the Red Sox not to deal anyone until they've filled their own catcher position. Could that club be the White Sox? That would be logical. But it could also be the Dodgers who are thinking either Realmuto / Barnes or Barnes / Leon. Machado to the Yankees next week (in "in early January," per a tweet yesterday from Dan Clark) could cause a lot of dominoes to start to fall.
Astros are still looking for a catcher apparently.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 30, 2018 9:49:51 GMT -5
I hugely feel that there's a bias here. Can't prove it one way or or another, certainly can't disprove Leon as a catcher defensively, but I imagine the difference between no Leon and Leon isn't the difference between 25-50% less catcher ERA wise or defensively wise. Wouldn't be the first time something is overvalued on the board. My take of course. The Sox can't really fix this problem because of the state of their farm system, but I just wanted to point this out. If it's a problem on the board, it's also a problem for the 108 win WS championship Red Sox, who used Leon as the starter for most of the season despite his "bad" public statistics. Whatever makes you sleep better. He was using quotes like- "It's the difference between the two catchers I just imagined." Whenever you're "imagining," you could be guessing towards the biased side of what you want to guess Leon was worth versus the comparison. The 108 win Boston Red Sox had arguably the most talent assembled in the team's history for one season. I "imagine" the Sox could have won over 100 games with Brock Holt behind the plate.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 30, 2018 10:25:20 GMT -5
If it's a problem on the board, it's also a problem for the 108 win WS championship Red Sox, who used Leon as the starter for most of the season despite his "bad" public statistics. Whatever makes you sleep better. He was using quotes like- "It's the difference between the two catchers I just imagined." Whenever you're "imagining," you could be guessing towards the biased side of what you want to guess Leon was worth versus the comparison. The 108 win Boston Red Sox had arguably the most talent assembled in the team's history for one season. I "imagine" the Sox could have won over 100 games with Brock Holt behind the plate. Yeah and there's a reason why Leon was getting all of the starts with Swihart getting almost none while Vazquez was hurt. The Red Sox obviously valued him more than public hitting and defensive stats. And you heard all of the pitchers gush over Leon too. Unless you think you're smarter than Cora and the analytics department for the Red Sox, then there is probably a lot of truth in what Eric is writing. I know that's an appeal to authority fallacy, but in this case, it's hard not to find it valid given how amazing the Red Sox were with their decisions last year. Also, I imagine that the Red Sox did not purposefully play the catcher that they thought was worse for most of the games.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 30, 2018 10:55:37 GMT -5
Whatever makes you sleep better. He was using quotes like- "It's the difference between the two catchers I just imagined." Whenever you're "imagining," you could be guessing towards the biased side of what you want to guess Leon was worth versus the comparison. The 108 win Boston Red Sox had arguably the most talent assembled in the team's history for one season. I "imagine" the Sox could have won over 100 games with Brock Holt behind the plate. Yeah and there's a reason why Leon was getting all of the starts with Swihart getting almost none while Vazquez was hurt. The Red Sox obviously valued him more than public hitting and defensive stats. And you heard all of the pitchers gush over Leon too. Unless you think you're smarter than Cora and the analytics department for the Red Sox, then there is probably a lot of truth in what Eric is writing. I know that's an appeal to authority fallacy, but in this case, it's hard not to find it valid given how amazing the Red Sox were with their decisions last year. I do think Leon is a great starting catcher defensively. I do not think I'm smarter than Cora. Just pointing out the bias. You don't throw out random stats, then say "I think Leon is this much better" than said comparison. Hard to know how much Leon is better than Grandal. 25-50% better defensively valued? I'm not so sure about that. That's all. Might be a bias there. Grandal has had at least one 60+ million dollar offer that he rejected so far this off-season. Teams value Grandal, I don't think they'd be offering that much money if teams didn't value his overall game, which includes defense. Add- If all of this were true, then teams would be giving up a top 10 prospect or something really valuable for Leon, and I definitely don't see that. The Sox might just overvalue Leon, which is okay considering the other strengths of the team
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 30, 2018 12:34:48 GMT -5
If it's a problem on the board, it's also a problem for the 108 win WS championship Red Sox, who used Leon as the starter for most of the season despite his "bad" public statistics. Whatever makes you sleep better. He was using quotes like- "It's the difference between the two catchers I just imagined." Whenever you're "imagining," you could be guessing towards the biased side of what you want to guess Leon was worth versus the comparison. The 108 win Boston Red Sox had arguably the most talent assembled in the team's history for one season. I "imagine" the Sox could have won over 100 games with Brock Holt behind the plate. You are completely missing the point. I actually said almost nothing about Sandy Leon. I certainly wasn't arguing he's as good as Grandal.
I was asked why a team might consider Sandy Leon as a starting catcher. I replied that if they did, it would be his pitch-calling. I didn't bother saying that he has a reputation for being one of the best pitch-callers in the game, because people on this board are not stupid unless they force themselves to be.
I then took the best catcher in baseball and, as a useful example of a guy regarded as a mere backup, Sandy Leon. (Which is to say, I could have run the numbers once for a generic backup and then again for Sandy Leon, but why would I do twice as much work, when Sandy Leon, pitch-calling excluded, is pretty much a generic backup already?) I calculated that the difference between them was the same as a 0.35 difference in "catcher's ERA."
I concluded that it was reasonable to think that pitch-calling might be half of a catcher's entire value.
The point that I didn't bother making because it should be obvious is that, if this is true, then teams with advanced analytics for pitch-calling are judging catchers completely different from the rest of us. More about that at the end.
If this is true, it would also a) make it credible that a couple of teams are considering him as a starter and b) as others have pointed out, explain why the Sox used Leon as their starter for much of the year and gave almost no PT to Blake Swihart, an obviously better catcher, overall, if you exclude pitch-calling.
There's no bias, there's no wanting. It's a hypothesis that fits the facts. And it's a vague and not too bold one: Leon is likely such a good pitch-caller that he's actually among the top 30 catchers in MLB when you include it.
(What's your explanation for giving Leon lots of PT and Blake Swihart none? I think you acknowledge that you have none.)
Now, more data that supports the argument about the value of pitch-calling, and which is otherwise completely inexplicable.
Here are the AAV's of free agents who have signed multi-year deals. The first number is their consensus ranking according to FanGraphs, ESPN (Keith Law), and MLB Trade Rumors.
3. $23.33M
5. $16M 10. $16.88 11. $15 13. $16.67 15. $9.5 17. $17 22. $10 23. $10 25. $12.5 28. $9.5 30. $8.33
33. $12
What the hell is wrong with #15? Did he have an idiot for an agent?
It's Wilson Ramos. Who signed with the Mets, which had buckets to spend, in a market where more teams need a starting catcher than there are catchers available. It only makes sense if all the teams interested in a starting catcher were confident that he was giving up about a win of value because he's a subpar pitch-caller.
(The others, BTW, are Corbin, Brantley, Eovalidi, Morton, McCutchen; Happ, Lynn, Familia, Miller, Sanchez, Kelly, Murphy.)
Meanwhile, Jonathan Lucroy, who was -0.3 WAR per 105 GS last year factoring in everything but pitch-calling, was just signed by the Angels to be their starting catcher. That actually makes sense if he can add about 2 wins with his pitch-calling, which would be about 0.20 of ERA shaved off the staff.
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Post by kingstephanos on Dec 30, 2018 15:04:12 GMT -5
Whatever makes you sleep better. He was using quotes like- "It's the difference between the two catchers I just imagined." Whenever you're "imagining," you could be guessing towards the biased side of what you want to guess Leon was worth versus the comparison. The 108 win Boston Red Sox had arguably the most talent assembled in the team's history for one season. I "imagine" the Sox could have won over 100 games with Brock Holt behind the plate. You are completely missing the point. I actually said almost nothing about Sandy Leon. I certainly wasn't arguing he's as good as Grandal.
I was asked why a team might consider Sandy Leon as a starting catcher. I replied that if they did, it would be his pitch-calling. I didn't bother saying that he has a reputation for being one of the best pitch-callers in the game, because people on this board are not stupid unless they force themselves to be.
I then took the best catcher in baseball and, as a useful example of a guy regarded as a mere backup, Sandy Leon. (Which is to say, I could have run the numbers once for a generic backup and then again for Sandy Leon, but why would I do twice as much work, when Sandy Leon, pitch-calling excluded, is pretty much a generic backup already?) I calculated that the difference between them was the same as a 0.35 difference in "catcher's ERA." I concluded that it was reasonable to think that pitch-calling might be half of a catcher's entire value. The point that I didn't bother making because it should be obvious is that, if this is true, then teams with advanced analytics for pitch-calling are judging catchers completely different from the rest of us. More about that at the end.
If this is true, it would also a) make it credible that a couple of teams are considering him as a starter and b) as others have pointed out, explain why the Sox used Leon as their starter for much of the year and gave almost no PT to Blake Swihart, an obviously better catcher, overall, if you exclude pitch-calling. There's no bias, there's no wanting. It's a hypothesis that fits the facts. And it's a vague and not too bold one: Leon is likely such a good pitch-caller that he's actually among the top 30 catchers in MLB when you include it.
(What's your explanation for giving Leon lots of PT and Blake Swihart none? I think you acknowledge that you have none.)
Now, more data that supports the argument about the value of pitch-calling, and which is otherwise completely inexplicable. Here are the AAV's of free agents who have signed multi-year deals. The first number is their consensus ranking according to FanGraphs, ESPN (Keith Law), and MLB Trade Rumors. 3. $23.33M
5. $16M 10. $16.88 11. $15 13. $16.67 15. $9.5 17. $17 22. $10 23. $10 25. $12.5 28. $9.5 30. $8.33
33. $12 What the hell is wrong with #15? Did he have an idiot for an agent? It's Wilson Ramos. Who signed with the Mets, which had buckets to spend, in a market where more teams need a starting catcher than there are catchers available. It only makes sense if all the teams interested in a starting catcher were confident that he was giving up about a win of value because he's a subpar pitch-caller.
(The others, BTW, are Corbin, Brantley, Eovalidi, Morton, McCutchen; Happ, Lynn, Familia, Miller, Sanchez, Kelly, Murphy.) Meanwhile, Jonathan Lucroy, who was -0.3 WAR per 105 GS last year factoring in everything but pitch-calling, was just signed by the Angels to be their starting catcher. That actually makes sense if he can add about 2 wins with his pitch-calling, which would be about 0.20 of ERA shaved off the staff.
This particular analytical mindset definitely has merit (from the Team's perspective). Though I don't necessarily agree with it whole-hog as it comes across as a "robbing Peter to pay Paul" exercise over a 162 game season and (hopefully long) playoff push. Regardless, thank you for the cogent reply, it's appreciated.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 30, 2018 20:39:10 GMT -5
If it's a problem on the board, it's also a problem for the 108 win WS championship Red Sox, who used Leon as the starter for most of the season despite his "bad" public statistics. Whatever makes you sleep better. He was using quotes like- "It's the difference between the two catchers I just imagined." Whenever you're "imagining," you could be guessing towards the biased side of what you want to guess Leon was worth versus the comparison. The 108 win Boston Red Sox had arguably the most talent assembled in the team's history for one season. I "imagine" the Sox could have won over 100 games with Brock Holt behind the plate. The two catchers I imagined were a hypothetical catcher who shaves off 0.18 of ERA compared to the average catcher, and one who adds 0.18. THEY HAVE NO RELATIONSHIP TO ANY ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO HAVE EVER LIVED.
I then pointed out that their resulting difference in value from this pitch-calling skill was the same as the measurable difference in all other catching skills between an All-Star like Grandal and a backup catcher like Leon.
THE ARGUMENT IS PURE SIMPLE MATH THAT IS INCAPABLE OF BEING INFLUENCED BY BIAS.
All I did was take the best-adjusted WAR of Grandal and Leon, convert that to a per-9 inning basis, subtract one from the other, convert to runs, multiply by 1.08 to account for unearned runs, and divide by two to divide the overall difference into a guy better than average and a guy equally worse than average. And the answer is 0.175.
Which step in that calculation is subject to bias?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 30, 2018 20:56:38 GMT -5
Yeah and there's a reason why Leon was getting all of the starts with Swihart getting almost none while Vazquez was hurt. The Red Sox obviously valued him more than public hitting and defensive stats. And you heard all of the pitchers gush over Leon too. Unless you think you're smarter than Cora and the analytics department for the Red Sox, then there is probably a lot of truth in what Eric is writing. I know that's an appeal to authority fallacy, but in this case, it's hard not to find it valid given how amazing the Red Sox were with their decisions last year. I do think Leon is a great starting catcher defensively. I do not think I'm smarter than Cora. Just pointing out the bias. You don't throw out random stats, then say "I think Leon is this much better" than said comparison. Hard to know how much Leon is better than Grandal. 25-50% better defensively valued? I'm not so sure about that. That's all. Might be a bias there. Grandal has had at least one 60+ million dollar offer that he rejected so far this off-season. Teams value Grandal, I don't think they'd be offering that much money if teams didn't value his overall game, which includes defense. Add- If all of this were true, then teams would be giving up a top 10 prospect or something really valuable for Leon, and I definitely don't see that. The Sox might just overvalue Leon, which is okay considering the other strengths of the team Do you understand that I'm not remotely talking about the actual Yasmani Grandal at all? That I never said that I was?
I used Grandal as a guy whose other skills we all understand. We have no real idea how good a pitch-caller he is, and I rather suspect he's quite good.
The point I was making is that the difference between Grandal's measurable, easily visible skills and Leon's measurable, easy visible skills-- the difference we all can see and understand and that form our evaluation of how "good" they are -- is only equal to 0.35 of "catcher's ERA" (if we could measure it accurately), which we can only sort of guess at, but which teams are now probably measuring with some accuracy. So, for instance, if Leon were 0.15 better at pitch-calling, the gap between them is only 20/35 = 60% as big as we think it is.
And it follows from this that, since Sandy Leon is universally recognized as an excellent pitch-caller, it's entirely credible and even likely that he is one of the 30 best catchers in baseball and hence good enough to start. Which then explains why we used him as a starter while winning 108 games.
That's it. That's the entire argument. Yasmani Grandal has as much to do with as Adriana Grande.
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Post by jmei on Dec 31, 2018 14:30:20 GMT -5
Let’s move on. Thanks.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 1, 2019 2:12:00 GMT -5
Feliz ano nuevo a todos. Gotta love our catchers.
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Post by sparkygian on Jan 7, 2019 18:57:19 GMT -5
Home from work today cause of being sick, and so reading articles and watching videos on MLB.com about recent MLB transactions and saw how Cleveland contacted several teams about available catchers and ended up making a deal with Mets for their backup catcher; Kevin Plawecki. Thought it was interesting that Cleveland was willing to give up a couple of prospects for someone whom Cleveland's President of baseball operations, Chris Antonetti, says has a reputation of being a good clubhouse guy, who handled the Mets pitching staff really well, and who they thought had some potential upside offensively. Not sure if Cleveland talked with Boston, but I haven't heard anything in awhile about the 'situation' with Boston's three-headed catcher position, and looking at Plawecki's offensive stats, they appeared to be in line with Boston's catcher's 'offensive' stats and yet Cleveland chose to give up a couple of prospects for Plawecki instead of going after one of Boston's catchers. Is DD asking for too much for them, or is he already pursuing other potential trades for one of the catchers, or did Cleveland feel like none of Boston's catchers was worth pursuing?
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Post by telson13 on Jan 8, 2019 0:01:42 GMT -5
Home from work today cause of being sick, and so reading articles and watching videos on MLB.com about recent MLB transactions and saw how Cleveland contacted several teams about available catchers and ended up making a deal with Mets for their backup catcher; Kevin Plawecki. Thought it was interesting that Cleveland was willing to give up a couple of prospects for someone whom Cleveland's President of baseball operations, Chris Antonetti, says has a reputation of being a good clubhouse guy, who handled the Mets pitching staff really well, and who they thought had some potential upside offensively. Not sure if Cleveland talked with Boston, but I haven't heard anything in awhile about the 'situation' with Boston's three-headed catcher position, and looking at Plawecki's offensive stats, they appeared to be in line with Boston's catcher's 'offensive' stats and yet Cleveland chose to give up a couple of prospects for Plawecki instead of going after one of Boston's catchers. Is DD asking for too much for them, or is he already pursuing other potential trades for one of the catchers, or did Cleveland feel like none of Boston's catchers was worth pursuing? All good questions...I really wonder what their internal evaluations are and particularly in light of Eric’s hypothetical. Obviously, the Sox have a high opinion of León relative to his publicly available stats. Makes me wonder who they’d be inclined to trade, and what sort of return they’d expect/demand. It’s really a very interesting “side” story this winter.
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Post by bcpatsox18 on Jan 8, 2019 0:20:49 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox need to give Swihart every opportunity to win the job in spring training, he has the highest potential offensively of the three and I haven’t seen anything defensively that suggests he’d be a below average catcher, and with more opportunity he can improve ala varitek. Vazquez is a great defensive backup as is Leon, I would trade whoever nets you more, which I think would be Vazquez.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 8, 2019 13:17:12 GMT -5
Home from work today cause of being sick, and so reading articles and watching videos on MLB.com about recent MLB transactions and saw how Cleveland contacted several teams about available catchers and ended up making a deal with Mets for their backup catcher; Kevin Plawecki. Thought it was interesting that Cleveland was willing to give up a couple of prospects for someone whom Cleveland's President of baseball operations, Chris Antonetti, says has a reputation of being a good clubhouse guy, who handled the Mets pitching staff really well, and who they thought had some potential upside offensively. Not sure if Cleveland talked with Boston, but I haven't heard anything in awhile about the 'situation' with Boston's three-headed catcher position, and looking at Plawecki's offensive stats, they appeared to be in line with Boston's catcher's 'offensive' stats and yet Cleveland chose to give up a couple of prospects for Plawecki instead of going after one of Boston's catchers. Is DD asking for too much for them, or is he already pursuing other potential trades for one of the catchers, or did Cleveland feel like none of Boston's catchers was worth pursuing? All good questions...I really wonder what their internal evaluations are and particularly in light of Eric’s hypothetical. Obviously, the Sox have a high opinion of León relative to his publicly available stats. Makes me wonder who they’d be inclined to trade, and what sort of return they’d expect/demand. It’s really a very interesting “side” story this winter. The two players New York received, Lockett and Haggerty, did not crack their top 30 on MLBPipeline (although maybe they're waiting to unveil new lists at this point). Fangraphs released its Mets list yesterday and put the two prospects at 17 and 18 as FV 40 players. They're 24-year-olds who are basically AAA depth. Nothing exciting.
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