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Who do You Want the Sox to Face?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 22, 2018 8:31:46 GMT -5
I can see the Sox losing 1-2 games. Nothings easy, but the Sox are just better. Their lineup is better. Their rotation is better. Their bullpen outside of Jensen is better. Just stay away from Jensen late in games and the Sox should be fine, he's one of the bests since Mariano at the closing position. Edit- If the Sox lose, it'll be more to the affect of the Sox losing and choking more than the Dodgers actually beating them. After beating Houston and New York convincingly, two actual 100 win teams, the Sox should do the same to this team. That's just what should happen, doesn't ever play out that way though. Like Kimbrel, Jansen has struggled off and on all year. Unlike Kimbrel, he's a one trick pony with diminished velocity and movement on his cut fastball. He definitely has gopheritis as his numbers suggest. Perhaps somebody who follows the Dodgers would easily know (aka too lazy to scan the net) if his HR problems spiked around the time he was having serious health issues? Maybe I'm not remembering correctly, but wasn't he having some heart issues? I think if it got to a Game 7 scenario the Dodgers would ride Kershaw, who I think is pitching quite well this post-season and when he's on, there's not many who are better. That's why it's important for Sale to be on as well. I feel good that Price seems to have figured something out and I hope Eovaldi can keep dominating, although he will have more lefties to face than NY or Houston had to offer. I hope the Sox don't have to use Porcello in Game 1 or 2 and have him fresh for Game 4, but if they have to use him, they have to use him. I'd be very curious to see how Wright looks. I think he'd be a worthwhile gamble over Workman or Hembree. If Wright makes the roster and then hurts his knee, can they sub Workman or Hembree in for him? Or are they out the roster spot?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 22, 2018 10:55:21 GMT -5
I can see the Sox losing 1-2 games. Nothings easy, but the Sox are just better. Their lineup is better. Their rotation is better. Their bullpen outside of Jensen is better. Just stay away from Jensen late in games and the Sox should be fine, he's one of the bests since Mariano at the closing position. Edit- If the Sox lose, it'll be more to the affect of the Sox losing and choking more than the Dodgers actually beating them. After beating Houston and New York convincingly, two actual 100 win teams, the Sox should do the same to this team. That's just what should happen, doesn't ever play out that way though. Like Kimbrel, Jansen has struggled off and on all year. Unlike Kimbrel, he's a one trick pony with diminished velocity and movement on his cut fastball. Kimbrel has a second trick? Jansen has heart issues. Kimbrel causes heart issues.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 22, 2018 11:16:10 GMT -5
I think if we can win the first game we're in great shape, then the Dodgers have to win four of six with three at Fenway and two of those games pitched by Price and Sale.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 22, 2018 11:55:51 GMT -5
I can see the Sox losing 1-2 games. Nothings easy, but the Sox are just better. Their lineup is better. Their rotation is better. Their bullpen outside of Jensen is better. Yup, that's how postseason baseball works. It's how the postseason for the Boston Red Sox has been working so far.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 22, 2018 13:04:41 GMT -5
Just to put into perspective how much worse the Dodgers offense is. In two less games the Sox have struck out half as much while walking a dozen or so less times.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 22, 2018 13:07:18 GMT -5
Yup, that's how postseason baseball works. It's how the postseason for the Boston Red Sox has been working so far. So far are the key words. Hope that keeps up. I've seen it stay and I've seen it go when you wouldn't think it would. I erred earlier when I mentioned the Sox didn't have a lefty in the pen to neutralize the lefties on the Dodgers, but then I just realized - they DO have a lefty in the pen, not a LOOGY type, but a quality pitcher capable of dominating. I had totally forgotten all about E-Rod. I wonder if he will get a bigger role in the World Series, especially with the Dodgers' ability to switch lefties and righties and the fact that E-Rod can handle righties if he is right. He's kind of been an afterthought in the post-season thus far. I wonder and hope that can change. If Felix Doubront can impact a World Series for the good, so then can E-Rod. If E-Rod could look sharper than he was the last two series and Wright can come back and pitch effectively for another week, then that can take some pressure off Barnes and Brasier and hopefully with the rest they can stay effective, and hopefully Eric Gagne has saved Craig Kimbrel - that could be a solid working bullpen that doesn't abuse Barnes and Brasier.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 22, 2018 13:15:25 GMT -5
Just to put into perspective how much worse the Dodgers offense is. In two less games the Sox have struck out half as much while walking a dozen or so less times. I don't think that's some sort of quick snapshot that shows that the Dodgers' offense stinks. It's a rather incomplete picture. All I get out of that is that they got on base via the walk 12 additional times in 2 games which isn't a bad thing and the Ks mean they grind the count which means the starters won't last as long and you have to rely on your bullpen because you have to K them to get them out. The Dodgers have a really good hit tool guy in Turner and they have some .260 hitters, which isn't bad when you consider that it's probably .280 if they play have their games at Fenway rather than Dodgers Stadium, so they have some guys with a good hit tool (besides Machado who can hit).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 22, 2018 13:21:05 GMT -5
Just to put into perspective how much worse the Dodgers offense is. In two less games the Sox have struck out half as much while walking a dozen or so less times. I don't think that's some sort of quick snapshot that shows that the Dodgers' offense stinks. It's a rather incomplete picture. All I get out of that is that they got on base via the walk 12 additional times in 2 games which isn't a bad thing and the Ks mean they grind the count which means the starters won't last as long and you have to rely on your bullpen because you have to K them to get them out. The Dodgers have a really good hit tool guy in Turner and they have some .260 hitters, which isn't bad when you consider that it's probably .280 if they play have their games at Fenway rather than Dodgers Stadium, so they have some guys with a good hit tool (besides Machado who can hit). Turner is probably the best they have. The rest are just guys that mostly homerun or nothing players without a ton of walks to back up that approach. The Sox don't walk or strikeout a ton, but they have players with exceptional bat to ball ability and put the ball in play. This isn't like facing Houston, who's offense is similar to yours with the contact, speed, and bat to ball ability with a lot of their hitters. Turner is no Bregman or Altuve for example. They have no one with that kind of ability.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 22, 2018 13:26:44 GMT -5
Yup, that's how postseason baseball works. It's how the postseason for the Boston Red Sox has been working so far. Yes, time and time again, it has been proven that the most accurate way to project a baseball team is to use a minuscule sample of recent performance.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 22, 2018 13:28:32 GMT -5
It's how the postseason for the Boston Red Sox has been working so far. Yes, time and time again, it has been proven that the most accurate way to project a baseball team is to use a minuscule sample of recent performance. The Sox have 108 wins. The Dodgers had about 20 wins less. Big enough sample for you yet?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 22, 2018 13:39:40 GMT -5
Yes, time and time again, it has been proven that the most accurate way to project a baseball team is to use a minuscule sample of recent performance. The Sox have 108 wins. The Dodgers had about 20 wins less. Big enough sample for you yet? Not really. Between their Pythagorean record and the health of their team now versus early in the season, there’s every reason to believe that the Dodgers are a far stronger opponent than their regular season win total indicates. Hell, just looking at their roster should tell you that.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Oct 22, 2018 13:45:14 GMT -5
Yes, time and time again, it has been proven that the most accurate way to project a baseball team is to use a minuscule sample of recent performance. The Sox have 108 wins. The Dodgers had about 20 wins less. Big enough sample for you yet? The Dodgers can rake. They actually had a slightly higher wRC+ than the Sox this year; they have 10 bats who were at least 10% better than league average, including Max Muncy, who was just as good a hitter as Bregman this year. I think we're going to win too, and I wouldn't be shocked if we did it quickly (just a gut feeling) but the idea that L.A. doesn't have the talent to compete is just insane.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 22, 2018 14:33:00 GMT -5
It's how the postseason for the Boston Red Sox has been working so far. So far are the key words. Hope that keeps up. I've seen it stay and I've seen it go when you wouldn't think it would. I erred earlier when I mentioned the Sox didn't have a lefty in the pen to neutralize the lefties on the Dodgers, but then I just realized - they DO have a lefty in the pen, not a LOOGY type, but a quality pitcher capable of dominating. I had totally forgotten all about E-Rod. I wonder if he will get a bigger role in the World Series, especially with the Dodgers' ability to switch lefties and righties and the fact that E-Rod can handle righties if he is right. He's kind of been an afterthought in the post-season thus far. I wonder and hope that can change. If Felix Doubront can impact a World Series for the good, so then can E-Rod. If E-Rod could look sharper than he was the last two series and Wright can come back and pitch effectively for another week, then that can take some pressure off Barnes and Brasier and hopefully with the rest they can stay effective, and hopefully Eric Gagne has saved Craig Kimbrel - that could be a solid working bullpen that doesn't abuse Barnes and Brasier. ERod should definitely be a bigger factor in this series. It was tough to use him against the Yankees and Astros because of their lineups. It wouldn't be shocking to see him start a game if they had to use an extra. Also, I expect Wright to be back. And I don't think knuckleball pitchers have a meaningful split for L/R.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 22, 2018 14:34:42 GMT -5
The entire key to the series once again is getting the Dodgers batters to chase pitches out of the zone and for Red Sox batters to not chase. Kershaw is way less effective if he doesn't get chases. Hell, every pitcher is.
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orion09
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Post by orion09 on Oct 22, 2018 14:43:55 GMT -5
The Globe ran an article scouting the WS matchup, and one of the author's points was that Brasier will be less of a weapon against the Dodgers' more flexible lineup than against the RHB-heavy Astros. Taking a look at Statcast, Brasier indeed has a platoon split this year, while Barnes actually has a slight reverse split:
| XWOPS vs RHB | XWOPS vs LHB | Brasier | .531 | .626 | Barnes | .601 | .534 |
I don't have a guess on whether Dave Roberts starts Muncy and Pederson in games 1 and 2 or has them available to PH off the bench. If they're available to PH, we might see Brasier used more situationally than in the Astros series.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 22, 2018 14:54:26 GMT -5
So far are the key words. Hope that keeps up. I've seen it stay and I've seen it go when you wouldn't think it would. I erred earlier when I mentioned the Sox didn't have a lefty in the pen to neutralize the lefties on the Dodgers, but then I just realized - they DO have a lefty in the pen, not a LOOGY type, but a quality pitcher capable of dominating. I had totally forgotten all about E-Rod. I wonder if he will get a bigger role in the World Series, especially with the Dodgers' ability to switch lefties and righties and the fact that E-Rod can handle righties if he is right. He's kind of been an afterthought in the post-season thus far. I wonder and hope that can change. If Felix Doubront can impact a World Series for the good, so then can E-Rod. If E-Rod could look sharper than he was the last two series and Wright can come back and pitch effectively for another week, then that can take some pressure off Barnes and Brasier and hopefully with the rest they can stay effective, and hopefully Eric Gagne has saved Craig Kimbrel - that could be a solid working bullpen that doesn't abuse Barnes and Brasier. ERod should definitely be a bigger factor in this series. It was tough to use him against the Yankees and Astros because of their lineups. It wouldn't be shocking to see him start a game if they had to use an extra. Also, I expect Wright to be back. And I don't think knuckleball pitchers have a meaningful split for L/R. Wright following Eovaldi in Dodger Stadium is a happy thought.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 22, 2018 15:13:34 GMT -5
The Sox have 108 wins. The Dodgers had about 20 wins less. Big enough sample for you yet? The Dodgers can rake. They actually had a slightly higher wRC+ than the Sox this year; they have 10 bats who were at least 10% better than league average, including Max Muncy, who was just as good a hitter as Bregman this year. I think we're going to win too, and I wouldn't be shocked if we did it quickly (just a gut feeling) but the idea that L.A. doesn't have the talent to compete is just insane. Max Muncy who is what 4 years older or something like that then Bregman most likely had a career year this year and had a K rate of over 27 percent this year, is in fact, nothing like Bregman. Bregman was better virtually across the board offensively on all offensive stats besides WRC+. Muncy only leads in that category because he had 200 less at bats than Bregman.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 22, 2018 21:16:41 GMT -5
Like Kimbrel, Jansen has struggled off and on all year. Unlike Kimbrel, he's a one trick pony with diminished velocity and movement on his cut fastball. Kimbrel has a second trick? Jansen has heart issues. Kimbrel causes heart issues. Fastball/knuckle curve vs. cut fastball. ADD: Both teams come in with closer concerns. Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel were both as good as it gets last year, but have been spotty and unreliable at times this season. Jansen has done it in the past with basically one pitch, a hard cut fastball. But the velocity and movement of that pitch have been down this year.
The theory that Kimbrel has been tipping his pitches does not really explain his recent struggles. He has not been able to control either his plus fastball or breaking ball, in or out of the zone, and has fallen victim to walks and giving up hits when behind in the count.
Kimball Crossley, pro scout 20 years. www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/10/21/mlb-scout-view-red-sox-dodgers-world-series/5cWfqqH9WIzL7Y4OuZ3u7H/story.htmlADD2: This whole article is well done and makes a lot of good points, well worth the read if you haven't seen it.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 22, 2018 21:37:34 GMT -5
Something that I haven't seen elsewhere and only recall from twitter is besides the tipping pitches mention, someone else at about the same time, Pedro I think, pointed out that Kimbrel was looking at the catcher during his windup later than he had been earlier in the year. That could easily explain the location issue.
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Post by jmei on Oct 23, 2018 6:16:56 GMT -5
The Dodgers can rake. They actually had a slightly higher wRC+ than the Sox this year; they have 10 bats who were at least 10% better than league average, including Max Muncy, who was just as good a hitter as Bregman this year. I think we're going to win too, and I wouldn't be shocked if we did it quickly (just a gut feeling) but the idea that L.A. doesn't have the talent to compete is just insane. Max Muncy who is what 4 years older or something like that then Bregman most likely had a career year this year and had a K rate of over 27 percent this year, is in fact, nothing like Bregman. Bregman was better virtually across the board offensively on all offensive stats besides WRC+. Muncy only leads in that category because he had 200 less at bats than Bregman. wRC+ is a rate stat that is not affected by the number of at bats accrued.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 23, 2018 6:23:01 GMT -5
Max Muncy who is what 4 years older or something like that then Bregman most likely had a career year this year and had a K rate of over 27 percent this year, is in fact, nothing like Bregman. Bregman was better virtually across the board offensively on all offensive stats besides WRC+. Muncy only leads in that category because he had 200 less at bats than Bregman. wRC+ is a rate stat that is not affected by the number of at bats accrued. I'm guessing his point was that it would have normalized with more ABs against a wider variety of pitchers. I agree with pedro here without nitpicking, Muncy is not Bregman.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Oct 23, 2018 7:56:47 GMT -5
wRC+ is a rate stat that is not affected by the number of at bats accrued. I'm guessing his point was that it would have normalized with more ABs against a wider variety of pitchers. I agree with pedro here without nitpicking, Muncy is not Bregman. Over 137 games in the big leagues this year Muncy had an OPS of .973. I'm not arguing that he'll have a better or even close to as good a career as Alex Bregman, I'm arguing that the Dodgers have good hitters. It's honestly baffling that anyone is disagreeing with that.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 23, 2018 8:28:49 GMT -5
I'm guessing his point was that it would have normalized with more ABs against a wider variety of pitchers. I agree with pedro here without nitpicking, Muncy is not Bregman. Over 137 games in the big leagues this year Muncy had an OPS of .973. I'm not arguing that he'll have a better or even close to as good a career as Alex Bregman, I'm arguing that the Dodgers have good hitters. It's honestly baffling that anyone is disagreeing with that. I don't think anyone that I've seen disagrees with that.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 23, 2018 11:12:19 GMT -5
Max Muncy who is what 4 years older or something like that then Bregman most likely had a career year this year and had a K rate of over 27 percent this year, is in fact, nothing like Bregman. Bregman was better virtually across the board offensively on all offensive stats besides WRC+. Muncy only leads in that category because he had 200 less at bats than Bregman. wRC+ is a rate stat that is not affected by the number of at bats accrued. Ohh I know, I was just pointing out that Muncy had over 200 less at bats, which is way less impressive. Muncy is a slugger having a great year. Bregman is a great hitter in general. The Dodgers don't have a hitter like that in this lineup. Machado would come close, but he doesn't walk enough. Once the Sox get past Machado and Turner, the lineup gets pretty easy to get out and strike out. All the Sox have to do is keep them in the ballpark like the Yankees series and they'll probably win easily.
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