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Red Sox vs. Dodgers 2018 World Series Gameday Thread
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Post by jmei on Nov 4, 2018 9:21:41 GMT -5
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Nov 4, 2018 9:26:20 GMT -5
So that's why they all went to Jared, er, Reddit and hid their identities behind Cubbies
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 4, 2018 9:54:24 GMT -5
There's a good point in the comments. The ratings do not include either streaming or alternate language broadcasts, which is really dumb.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 4, 2018 10:24:01 GMT -5
This would certainly raise a issue to "fan interest of the game." I doubt anyone cared to watch this outside of Boston and a little bit of California.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 4, 2018 11:10:56 GMT -5
Pete Abraham Verified account @peteabe Pick up today's Globe for a special commemorative section on the World Series-champion Red Sox. Also available in our digital edition. Both SI and (I'm pretty sure) The Globe will be publishing slick little squarebound magazines, too. I'll be all over those. This would certainly raise a issue to "fan interest of the game." I doubt anyone cared to watch this outside of Boston and a little bit of California. So, you only read the intro to the article, huh?
The graph shows that the WS ratings relative to the top-rated show on TV were better than all but four years since 2004: 2009, 2011, 2016, 2017. As the article points out, 2016 was the Cubs' curse breaker and both 2016 and 2017 were epic 7-game series. So was 2011. The 2009 spike demonstrates that the Yankees are a true draw (with lots of people rooting against). For a non-competitive 5-game series where the one thrilling game lasted until 3 AM EDT, the ratings were actually good.
It's not really a good analysis. You have to look at both average TV ratings and the top 1 or top 3 shows and then do some regression analysis to get a trend and determine a baseline. Then do a regression analysis on length of WS, closeness of games, and the TV viewership, and use that to predict the 2018 ratings. It seems very clear that they were higher than such a model would predict.
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Post by trajanacc on Nov 4, 2018 18:27:39 GMT -5
We won the World Series!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 4, 2018 21:37:16 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 4, 2018 21:42:53 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 4, 2018 21:45:11 GMT -5
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 5, 2018 1:22:06 GMT -5
This would certainly raise a issue to "fan interest of the game." I doubt anyone cared to watch this outside of Boston and a little bit of California. Well, maybe more than you think. LA is huge and into their Dodgers big time. As are so many from the Central Coast up to Ventura and Santa Barbara where the Giants and A’s start to become more popular. Ditto for most of the Inland Empire (San Bernardino and Riverside counties all the way to the Arizona border, where the D’backs take over.). On that score, while millions of Dodger fans watched the games, so did most baseball fans from northern Calif who root for the Giants and from San Diego County who root for the Padres. They really hate the Dodgers, and I know from baseball loving family and friends all over these areas that they were loudly rooting AGAINST the Dodgers and for the Sox ... the enemy of my enemy, etc. That includes Diamondback fans. So, millions (and I mean millions) of baseball fans from California’s largest large cities, (as well as AZ) were into the games at home and sports bars. And we both know that was the case all over New England and most ALE cities. So this research seems flawed at best.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 5, 2018 13:28:43 GMT -5
Some final thoughts from handwritten notes ...
The only teams to repeat since the 1977-78 Yankees are the 1992-93 Blue Jays and of course the '98-'99-'00 Yankees. A worthy goal!
----
The equivalent of winning 100 games in the 154 game schedule was 95, exactly.
Teams that won 95 and had the best record in MLB and swept the WS:
Yankees in '27, '28, '38, '39, and '50. (The '07 Cubs had a tie.)
I detect a pattern.
Is it really meaningful to talk about the greatest teams in MLB history when until 1965 the team with the most money could sign all of the amateur talent they wanted? It's the answer to a different question.
Teams that won 100 games in the expansion era, had the best record, and swept the WS, or had just 1 loss in the CS era, or went 11-2, or 11-3 with maximum 1 loss in any series (DS era):
1970 Orioles 1976 Reds 1984 Tigers 1998 Yankees 2018 Red Sox
The '70 O's were a 108/104 team (actual/Pyth) that swept the 98/96 Twins (3 game CS) and went 4-1 against the 102/91 Reds. The loss was a 1-run loss in game 4.
The '76 Reds were 101/101, swept the 101/104 Phillies and the 97/97 Yankees. The '84 Tigers were 104/99, swept the 84/80 Royals and beat the 92/87 Padres in 5. Just not challenged in the post-season. The '98 Yankees were 114/108, swept the 88/87 Rangers, took 6 games to beat the 89/87 Indians, and swept the 98/93 Padres. The '18 Red Sox were 108/103, beat the 100/99 Yankees in 4, the 103/109 Astros in 4, and the 92/102 Dodgers in 4, the only loss in 18 innings.
Maybe the '76 Reds were a greater team. But it's hard to see it.
---
Finally, when we hired DDo I posted a best-case scenario where he was open-minded and came to the Sox to try to incorporate analytics into his toolkit, because he wanted to be the best GM he could be. I think I later argued that Henry wouldn't have hired him if he weren't open to the idea.
That he kept Farrell around a bit indicates that embracing analytics to the extraordinary degree that they have was not the plan, just a distinct possibility. Hiring Cora made that a reality. The night of the WS victory, DDo was asked about the importance of communicating analytics to the players; he agreed, and added "you also have to have an open mind, 'cause you're always trying to get better."
That sounds to me like someone who came here not committed to going all-in on analytics, but very intrigued by the possibility, and who jumped on the opportunity when he saw in Cora a guy who could perfectly integrate them with scouting. I've always argued that analytics and scouting, far from being in opposition, are a tremendous synergistic combination. Analytics can tell you what to look for in scouting, scouting can suggest analytic questions, and explaining each in terms of the other is how you come to understand the game of baseball.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 5, 2018 20:08:29 GMT -5
Some final thoughts from handwritten notes ... The only teams to repeat since the 1977-78 Yankees are the 1992-93 Blue Jays and of course the '98-'99-'00 Yankees. A worthy goal! ----
The equivalent of winning 100 games in the 154 game schedule was 95, exactly. Teams that won 95 and had the best record in MLB and swept the WS: Yankees in '27, '28, '38, '39, and '50. (The '07 Cubs had a tie.)
I detect a pattern. Is it really meaningful to talk about the greatest teams in MLB history when until 1965 the team with the most money could sign all of the amateur talent they wanted? It's the answer to a different question. Teams that won 100 games in the expansion era, had the best record, and swept the WS, or had just 1 loss in the CS era, or went 11-2, or 11-3 with maximum 1 loss in any series (DS era):
1970 Orioles 1976 Reds 1984 Tigers 1998 Yankees 2018 Red Sox The '70 O's were a 108/104 team (actual/Pyth) that swept the 98/96 Twins (3 game CS) and went 4-1 against the 102/91 Reds. The loss was a 1-run loss in game 4.
The '76 Reds were 101/101, swept the 101/104 Phillies and the 97/97 Yankees. The '84 Tigers were 104/99, swept the 84/80 Royals and beat the 92/87 Padres in 5. Just not challenged in the post-season. The '98 Yankees were 114/108, swept the 88/87 Rangers, took 6 games to beat the 89/87 Indians, and swept the 98/93 Padres. The '18 Red Sox were 108/103, beat the 100/99 Yankees in 4, the 103/109 Astros in 4, and the 92/102 Dodgers in 4, the only loss in 18 innings. Maybe the '76 Reds were a greater team. But it's hard to see it. ---
Finally, when we hired DDo I posted a best-case scenario where he was open-minded and came to the Sox to try to incorporate analytics into his toolkit, because he wanted to be the best GM he could be. I think I later argued that Henry wouldn't have hired him if he weren't open to the idea. That he kept Farrell around a bit indicates that embracing analytics to the extraordinary degree that they have was not the plan, just a distinct possibility. Hiring Cora made that a reality. The night of the WS victory, DDo was asked about the importance of communicating analytics to the players; he agreed, and added "you also have to have an open mind, 'cause you're always trying to get better."
That sounds to me like someone who came here not committed to going all-in on analytics, but very intrigued by the possibility, and who jumped on the opportunity when he saw in Cora a guy who could perfectly integrate them with scouting. I've always argued that analytics and scouting, far from being in opposition, are a tremendous synergistic combination. Analytics can tell you what to look for in scouting, scouting can suggest analytic questions, and explaining each in terms of the other is how you come to understand the game of baseball. And that was why I was always a fan of Derric McCamey who was the only analyst I knew of that was also a graduate of MLB scouting school. He used to say in the forwards to Minor League Baseball Analyst that the scouting and result should match and when they don't they signal points to take a closer look at why they are worse or better than expected. At that point he was mostly talking about tools although I don't think the term tools existed then. He got hired away by the Cardinals so he doesn't publish anymore but the Cardinals thought enough of his impact that they gave him a WS ring after their first WS this century. Of course, what really made his career was that he once did a SoxProspects Q&A.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 5, 2018 23:37:05 GMT -5
Dombrowski got robbed.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 5, 2018 23:51:03 GMT -5
It’s pretty dumb the executive of the year is voted on prior to the playoffs since the in season moves are made with, ya know, the playoffs in mind. The Pearce and Eovaldi moves didn’t matter too much in the regular season (they did but not nearly to the degree) as they did in the post season, which was why they were made.
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Post by tonyc on Nov 7, 2018 2:08:59 GMT -5
Eric, I like this synergistic combo of analytics and scouting. Sounds like statements I read decades ago about the old arguments of genetics vs. environment missing the boat- it’s how they combine. Or Alan Watts mentioning that you cannot dileneate between an organism and its envoirnment in making a study. It seems that left brained western thought is overly focused on separating reality into demarcated bits- black/white, right wrong, etc. As I get older I like the model that things are more complex, shades of gray and multiple truths simultaneously all have weight.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Nov 7, 2018 15:43:37 GMT -5
Can't get enough of this stuff! Reminder: The Boston Red Sox are the best team in the world!
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 7, 2018 18:20:07 GMT -5
Can't get enough of this stuff! Reminder: The Boston Red Sox are the best team in the world! That'll have to hold me over until I get the DVD I ordered. The whole season feels like a dream.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 8, 2018 9:16:06 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 9, 2018 16:12:43 GMT -5
I think it describes their approach when they didn't have a good guess and maybe even when they got something unexpected. But they absolutely were looking for certain pitches in certain RISP situations.
It's also true that most or all hitters guess when ahead in the count, to at least some degree. I did some pitch/fx analysis of the '08 Sox lineup and found that Ellsbury led the team in percentage of pitches down the middle swung at, and at lowest SA on them, and also had the worst ahead-in-count performance relative to behind-in-count. He was hitting defensively all the time. Everyone else took more pitches down the middle because they were sometimes guessing wrong.
The "Open Focus" principle -- the less you look, the more you see -- makes sound neurological sense. If you're looking for a slider and you get something else, it's much harder to recognize which something else you're getting, as opposed to if you were looking for nothing at all.
Based on the cognitive neuroscience of perception, there's indeed a way to both be looking for a pitch, and to see what's actually thrown if it's not. It's just a weaker commitment to the guess. You have to learn the sweet spot for the degree of commitment.
You have to get your conscious mind out of the way no matter how focused you are on the guess. If you have the thought "I'm sitting on a curve low in the zone" and then clear your mind to let the "muscle memory take over," you can hit that pitch out of the park even though it's good. But if you get anything else, you're toast.
Whereas if you have the thought "I think he's coming inside, probably with the cutter," you've primed yourself to hit that extra hard but you're much better prepared if you're wrong. Because the strength of the commitment to the expectation is weaker, the brain is much quicker to see that the prediction was wrong. The stronger your expectation, the more the brain is going to make what it sees conform to the expectation, and by the time it realizes that the pitch is not the expectation -- which is when it suddenly looks to you like the actual pitch and not the expectation -- it's too late.
It's finding the right balance between "top-down processing," where you form expectations, and jump to conclusions based on partial data, in order to process info as quickly as possible, and "bottom-up processing," where you do no expecting and no filling-in and just process the actual data, for maximum accuracy.
(Yeah, I woke up at 6:00 AM and got a ton of satisfying work done on the book ... checking SP is my reward!)
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 9, 2018 16:17:45 GMT -5
I hope this thread stays on this board and never goes to the archives section, by the way. I don't want to move on from this past season lol. It's all downhill from here.
It's like watching my 4 year old niece grow up. She isn't getting much cuter past this point.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 9, 2018 19:38:48 GMT -5
I hope this thread stays on this board and never goes to the archives section, by the way. I don't want to move on from this past season lol. It's all downhill from here. It's like watching my 4 year old niece grow up. She isn't getting much cuter past this point. Pedro, you are so lucky. You are about to watch this cute little girl get even cuter, and transform into an independent, intelligent, beautiful young woman as she begins her adult life. Your job is to make sure she loves herself, you and baseball. Enjoy.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 9, 2018 20:26:14 GMT -5
I hope this thread stays on this board and never goes to the archives section, by the way. I don't want to move on from this past season lol. It's all downhill from here. It's like watching my 4 year old niece grow up. She isn't getting much cuter past this point. I'm guessing it's your first niece because you couldn't be more wrong.
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Post by bluechip on Nov 27, 2018 12:29:48 GMT -5
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Nov 28, 2018 23:54:58 GMT -5
Yo, hear me out! One month ago, YOUR Boston Red Sox dominated the WS and the ALCS and the ALDS and the AL East and Interleague games...in fact they dominated everything and won it all! Enjoy the rest of your day!
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dd
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Post by dd on Dec 1, 2018 18:20:11 GMT -5
... and if you need another reason to hate the Yankees, they were the stingiest team in MLB.
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