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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 30, 2019 11:54:09 GMT -5
IMO, central, a well considered post. I am inclined to put Darwinzon and Taylor in the top tier, with Barnes and Workman. Brasier and Walden are not far behind. What a powerful core of 6 no matter how they are ranked. Because each of them seem to have found themselves this season, improved, grown, raised their pre-2019 ceilings if you will. Combined, they will cost less than $10M in 2020, so there is room for a closer.
While I agree with many that the 2020 Pen can be dominant without a proven closer, if DDo decides this group is just a top closer away from being the best BP, he may sign one, and maybe should.
And those you mentioned in the pipeline, like Houck and Feltman really are guys to dream on for 2020. On the other hand, Eovaldi, Cashner and Erasmo are costly SP’s who don’t seem like good choices for the Pen, and BJ, Wright and Velasquez underwhelmed this year. That 8th man, longman, may be the most difficult tier to figure out.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 30, 2019 18:17:40 GMT -5
What Brasier has done since his recall, by xwOBA, is no different from what he did over 16 outings from April 17 to May 27. But what's really interesting is this: Last year he faced just 18% of his hitters on 0 days rest, and had no split at all. This year he's faced 36% of his hitters on 0 days rest and has allowed a .430 xwOBA, versus .284 with at least a day off. In that good stretch, the split was just .305 vs. .261, while it was .459 vs. .298 before and after. Here's his xwOBA and FB, Change, and Slider movement this year in four chunks (change and slider relative to FB)
Date xw FB Ch Sl 3/31-4/17 .410 10.4 7.7 12.9 4/18-5/27 .271 10.3 7.5 12.7 5/28-7/15 .378 9.5 6.3 12.1 8/18-8/27 .276 9.4 7.7 12.9 If the improvement starting 4/18 was for real, it had to be command (which is what I remember). His stuff was definitely way off in his bad stretch before being sent down. His FB seems not to have recovered, but his secondaries have.
The thing is, Brasier in 2018 also had three distinct chunks by xwOBA: .308 (10 G), .206 (17 G), .314 (7 G). So it's not meaningful to look at his good stretches this year and say they compare to his overall numbers last year. His overall numbers last year were almost exactly 50% dominating, 50% average (60 BFP vs. 63). This year he's been 44% quite good in two stretches --- not quote in the Barnes / Workman / Taylor tier, but with Walden in the next one -- but 56% just terrible.
If the days rest thing is for real, he could certainly fit in the pen next year as a guy who can pitch the 6th, but not on back-to-back days. That's probably not useful enough to earn a full-time roster spot next year, but it would project him as a really useful up-and-down guy. He'll need a dominant stretch a la 2018 to change that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 30, 2019 18:58:00 GMT -5
The relief metrics. Apologies to Josh Smith (do you care?) Darwinzon's numbers are just as a reliever pitching clean single innings, since they finally figured out to limit him to that.
Taylor V2 is since his recall.
"Result" is wOBA allowed, "Quality" is xwOBA adjusted for balls hit to CF, and (roughly) for opposition quality faced. "xWins" is Quality converted to Win Probability Added for 60 IP, while Wins his the actual value converted to 60. Both are adjusted for leverage. Last two columns are karma (WPA differenial) for balls in play (a good part of which may be real), and for pitching to the situation.
Name Use Result Quality xWins Wins BKar SKar Darw. Hernandez 12.6 .255 .195 2.28 1.71 -1.18 0.61 Andrew Cashner 7.2 .269 .227 1.64 2.33 -0.82 1.51 Taylor V2 37.1 .228 .249 1.22 1.58 0.41 -0.04 Nathan Eovaldi 13.9 .355 .251 1.17 2.42 -2.05 3.30 Brandon Workman 73.7 .208 .261 .97 1.54 1.05 -0.48 Matt Barnes 70.6 .294 .263 .93 .52 -0.61 0.19 Josh Taylor 40.5 .272 .267 .85 1.23 -0.09 0.47 Marcus Walden 73.2 .269 .298 .25 .74 0.57 -0.08 Heath Hembree 35.2 .338 .325 -.29 1.38 -0.25 1.92 Ryan Brasier 53.4 .294 .333 -.45 -.35 0.78 -0.67 Over/under for Darwinzon becoming the closer: May 15, 2020.
Cashner's been closer quality. I suspect he and not Johnson will be the 5th starter the rest of the way, but we don't need one until September 7th.
Eovaldi was also closer quality. You didn't notice because he got awful results only in low leverage, and they appeared to have been largely bad luck on balls in play. He was tremendous in other than his garbage time appearances.
Updating how the others fare against the benchmarks.
For xWins: 1.20 closer. Dawinzon looks solid or better, and Taylor V2 is borderline. 0.75 8th inning. Workman and Barnes are really solid. 0.50 7th inning. Nobody, but we're already up to 4 guys who are better, which is what you want. 0.30 4th man in pen. Walden's a bit shy ... but he's the 5th man. 0.05 5th man in pen. Hembree pitching hurt killed him. I should run his healthy numbers. Benchmarks for actual Wins: 1.90 closer. Darwinzon's been a little shy, but his Situational Karma is not being artificially boosted by pitching in the 9th. 1.15 8th inning. Workman and Taylor are really solid. So is Hembree, which really means I do want to run his numbers in more detail. 0.75 7th inning. Walden's borderline. 0.40 4th man in pen. Barnes has given up homers in key situations, and they've tended to be cheap. Doubtful that this low number is predictive. 0.00 5th man. We have six guys already. This is 6 guys you hope to count on next year. Obviously you try to find the next Colten Brewer and hope he doesn't turn out to be the next actual Colten Brewer, but with Johnson and Wright (if healthy) slated for long relief roles, Brasier and Velazquez already established as valuable up-and-down guys, Lakins and Weber as likely adequate ones, and Houk and maybe Feldman as reinforcements, there's zero need to acquire anybody.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 31, 2019 11:13:10 GMT -5
The 2020 bullpen looks to be a mix of: Workman Barnes Taylor Darwinzon Walden Brasier Velazquez Johnson is probably gone; Hembree may be. My guess is they ring up Houck in September with the chance to open the season in Boston next year. That’s a pretty solid collection of arms. We’ll see if guys like Lakins or Weems or Brewer can end up contributing. But given the success of their “throw it at the wall and see what sticks” approach this year, I’m hopeful they do the same over the winter and collect reclamation/conversion arms. Maybe Cashner comes back on a cheap/short deal, lured with the possibility of closing and reviving his value. He’s obviously not a starter anymore, but with a full season doing what he’s done out of the bullpen for the Sox, he could probably get a better contract than he would as a 5th/6th starter.
The rotation has a lot of questions, though. Sale, Price, Rodriguez, +/- Eovaldi (hopefully +) means they need at least two arms. I still strongly advocate trying to acquire Jon Gray, who has two years and remaining upside, and should easily eclipse Porcello’s production. It looks like Dalbec may be in line for a shot at 1b and 3b backup, which saves $. Not having to spend on the bullpen, and Porcello/Sandoval’s expiring deals (plus Pearce, Nunez being off the roster) gives them a little wiggle room (about $52M, much of which will go to arb raises and extension raises). Maybe they can sign Wheeler to a reasonable 2-yr deal (tho his market may be volatile, and he’ll probably want more years as security). They have no in-house options, so they’re going to need to get creative. It’s possible that they can try getting some post-hype sleepers/change of scenery candidates, and use a volume approach. Unfortunately, neither Duran nor Wilson is ready, so JBJ probably goes to FA unless he’s dealt at the deadline next year. It’s a tough spot. But looking back, while the 2019 ‘pen had its issues at times, overall it’s ended up being solid to good. I’m hoping they can cobble together the back-end 2020 rotation in a similar manner.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 31, 2019 11:29:44 GMT -5
Brasier shouldn't be a lock in 2020. No way should he be.
Velazquez will be up and down in 2020 at best.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 31, 2019 13:57:38 GMT -5
Brasier shouldn't be a lock in 2020. No way should he be. Velazquez will be up and down in 2020 at best. The strange thing about RP’s is their consistency, so any and all on Telson’s list may be awful in 2020, with lots of ups and downs. The good news is that all of them seem to have been on a steady course of improving their skills and stuff, and figuring things out (maturing?) over several years, including Brasier. So we won’t know til ST, but Telson’s list seems likely to forebode an above average Pen going forward. After seeing Cashner and his stuff dramatically improve since becoming a reliever, including last night’s heroics, he really could become a multi-inning, dominant closer, and improve his FA value. I second Telson’s idea of a pillow contract during the transition, if he is savvy enough to choose it. And with Houck, Lakins, Feltman, etc. moving up, 2020 should offer a top Pen, even allowing for normal inconsistencies. So whatever happens to Brasier and Hernandez, up or down, my personal BP panic is over.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Aug 31, 2019 18:17:06 GMT -5
This kid is a marvelous thing to watch! Remember, that the Angels are the 2nd hardest team to k in MLB. My goodness!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 31, 2019 18:39:59 GMT -5
This kid is a marvelous thing to watch! Remember, that the Angels are the 2nd hardest team to k in MLB. My goodness! We previously had no idea whether he had any part of the "closer's mentality," and for good reason: he had never pitched in high leverage before last night.
He looked like he wanted to be there -- like he relished the challenge.
Previously, he had faced more than 3 batters in a game without walking somebody just once, and that was against KC on the 7th when he gave up 2 hits and a run, and fanned 2 of the other 3 hitters.
So, fanning 5 out of 9 without walking anyone -- far and away the best command he's shown in an MLB outing -- happens to come when his leverage is 2.24 instead of his previous career high of 1.36 (in San Deigo, where he fanned 1 in a 1-2-3 inning). That's very likely to be random chance, right?
But if it isn't, if it's in any part a positive result of the adrenaline that many successful closers thrive on ... well, do I really have to finish that sentence?
In any case, I'm changing the over / under date for him becoming the closer from May 15 of next year to April 15.
People may forget that Papelbon was a serious starting pitching prospect, and that even after his rookie success in relief, the plan was for him to start (I argued for Wakefield to be the closer if health permitted). And that Tito had a better idea. Does anyone regret that they never gave Papelbon a chance to start?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 31, 2019 20:01:09 GMT -5
FanGraphs tracks A Win Probability Added stat that is really telling.
They add up the WPA of all the good outings and bad outing separately.
The Sox bad-outings total is the 10th worst in baseball. That's what folks have noticed.
What folks are missing is that they have the 3rd best total of positive outings, just a fraction behind the Angels.
The combination of the two ranks 6th -- 5th when adjusted for leverage.
So when you reject the latter fact with the complaint "But I can remember so many bad outings, outings that hurt us more than those of an average pen would!," you're not wrong. In fact, bad outings have cost them about 2.5 wins relative to the average bullpen.
But the good outings have been 7 wins better than average.
It's Jekyll and Hyde. And it's Hyde that always gets the press.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 31, 2019 20:52:35 GMT -5
Brasier shouldn't be a lock in 2020. No way should he be. Velazquez will be up and down in 2020 at best. I’m not saying either is a “lock.” Where are you getting that from? They’re going to probably start the year with 12 pitchers. That’s five for the rotation and seven in the ‘pen. Obviously, the weakest bullpen arms aren’t “locks” for a spot (as you say, Velazquez has options and should be an up-and-down guy as 6th starter/swingman depth; Brasier is arguably the one with the most tenuous spot right now, but he’s passable as the 6th best reliever on a team). Hence, the utility of having Houck, Brewer, Lakins, Feltman, Weems as possible call-ups. They can try filling in some depth slots with fliers, conversion arms, etc. Point being, there’s no sense in this team dropping significant $ or talent on bullpen pieces. They need to focus on SP depth, and quality, because that is *the* clear issue with the team this year, and they’re not going anywhere until they sort it out. Chacín is a nice depth move. Even backend starters (moreso reliable ones) are a lot less in supply than bullpen pieces. With tight $ restrictions given their payroll situation, they need the biggest bang for the buck.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 31, 2019 21:04:05 GMT -5
Brasier shouldn't be a lock in 2020. No way should he be. Velazquez will be up and down in 2020 at best. The strange thing about RP’s is their consistency, so any and all on Telson’s list may be awful in 2020, with lots of ups and downs. The good news is that all of them seem to have been on a steady course of improving their skills and stuff, and figuring things out (maturing?) over several years, including Brasier. So we won’t know til ST, but Telson’s list seems likely to forebode an above average Pen going forward. After seeing Cashner and his stuff dramatically improve since becoming a reliever, including last night’s heroics, he really could become a multi-inning, dominant closer, and improve his FA value. I second Telson’s idea of a pillow contract during the transition, if he is savvy enough to choose it. And with Houck, Lakins, Feltman, etc. moving up, 2020 should offer a top Pen, even allowing for normal inconsistencies. So whatever happens to Brasier and Hernandez, up or down, my personal BP panic is over. Yeah, I mean, a couple of those guys will probably be bums next year, one gets hurt, two keep doing their thing, one or two breaks out. That’s just the nature of relievers. But they proved this year that you can build a solid bullpen with a volume approach. That’s a lot tougher to do with even just the back end of a rotation. Never mind the questions middle to up top (Hence, **please** trade for Jon Gray). The bullpen this year had one legit really crappy stretch, but has otherwise been quite good. Not awesome, but good. Taylor’s a total keeper. Workman made a clear change in approach and maintained it all year. Darwinzon looks like a beast. Barnes is Barnes...a little less brutal usage and he might be the guy from April-May all year. But they have some young depth, and they can make some Taylor/Brewer-type acquisitions of younger guys who are in the high minors/early MLB, or non-tenders due to arb raises. They lead MLB in bullpen K/9, I believe, and are like 7th or 8th in ERA right now. It’s not a spectacular or big-name group, but it’s playoff-caliber, especially with rover usage.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 31, 2019 21:53:36 GMT -5
Brasier shouldn't be a lock in 2020. No way should he be. Velazquez will be up and down in 2020 at best. I’m not saying either is a “lock.” Where are you getting that from? They’re going to probably start the year with 12 pitchers. That’s five for the rotation and seven in the ‘pen. Obviously, the weakest bullpen arms aren’t “locks” for a spot (as you say, Velazquez has options and should be an up-and-down guy as 6th starter/swingman depth; Brasier is arguably the one with the most tenuous spot right now, but he’s passable as the 6th best reliever on a team). Hence, the utility of having Houck, Brewer, Lakins, Feltman, Weems as possible call-ups. They can try filling in some depth slots with fliers, conversion arms, etc. Point being, there’s no sense in this team dropping significant $ or talent on bullpen pieces. They need to focus on SP depth, and quality, because that is *the* clear issue with the team this year, and they’re not going anywhere until they sort it out. Chacín is a nice depth move. Even backend starters (moreso reliable ones) are a lot less in supply than bullpen pieces. With tight $ restrictions given their payroll situation, they need the biggest bang for the buck. I miss understood. I thought that was your list of what you wanted to see. I think Cashner, plus one more arm would be great.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 1, 2019 8:07:30 GMT -5
I’m not saying either is a “lock.” Where are you getting that from? They’re going to probably start the year with 12 pitchers. That’s five for the rotation and seven in the ‘pen. Obviously, the weakest bullpen arms aren’t “locks” for a spot (as you say, Velazquez has options and should be an up-and-down guy as 6th starter/swingman depth; Brasier is arguably the one with the most tenuous spot right now, but he’s passable as the 6th best reliever on a team). Hence, the utility of having Houck, Brewer, Lakins, Feltman, Weems as possible call-ups. They can try filling in some depth slots with fliers, conversion arms, etc. Point being, there’s no sense in this team dropping significant $ or talent on bullpen pieces. They need to focus on SP depth, and quality, because that is *the* clear issue with the team this year, and they’re not going anywhere until they sort it out. Chacín is a nice depth move. Even backend starters (moreso reliable ones) are a lot less in supply than bullpen pieces. With tight $ restrictions given their payroll situation, they need the biggest bang for the buck. I miss understood. I thought that was your list of what you wanted to see. I think Cashner, plus one more arm would be great. Cashner on a pillow deal might be fantastic. Pomeranz got just $5M, and he had a stretch of being a substantially better pitcher for three years than any 3-yr stretch in Cashner’s career. And, it was to start (unfortunately, someone out there who needs a 5 might offer Cashner a similar deal), which obviously adds to the value. But the Sox could maybe offer Cashner a *chance* to start (which would mean things went sideways), but pitch it as a chance to close. I’m hoping they could convince him that if he had a big year, he might be in line for $7-10M over three years. And, he’d be on a contender. A $3-4M 1-year show me deal would be great. Predictably, since we were just discussing him, Brasier got lit up. I’d actually like to see them bring in 3-4 more arms (beyond Cashner), but more in the Taylor/Brewer vein, high-minors prospects or young non-tenders or similar. Guys on minimum salaries. Maybe a reclamation project or two. Volume works, for relievers at least.
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 1, 2019 8:23:19 GMT -5
How’s that Braiser SSS since his recall looking now?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 1, 2019 10:39:14 GMT -5
How’s that Braiser SSS since his recall looking now? Well, I looked into it as I said I would, and not only did I conclude that it was meaningless, I called the disaster in advance.
And my point had been, if they had fixed him, why did it take until August? It was a reference to the lack of evidence that LeVangie has done anything but a terrible job.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 4, 2019 20:31:20 GMT -5
Who’s ready for 5+ hour Yankee/Sox games?
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 5, 2019 12:19:10 GMT -5
The only thing that sucks about Workman’s season is that we are going to be told how great he is this offseason and that we should expect this as his new norm.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 5, 2019 12:24:35 GMT -5
The only thing that sucks about Workman’s season is that we are going to be told how great he is this offseason and that we should expect this as his new norm. So you'd rather that he be worse? C'mon.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 5, 2019 12:43:03 GMT -5
The only thing that sucks about Workman’s season is that we are going to be told how great he is this offseason and that we should expect this as his new norm. So you'd rather that he be worse? C'mon. He did say "the only thing that sucks"...
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 5, 2019 13:14:15 GMT -5
The only thing that sucks about Workman’s season is that we are going to be told how great he is this offseason and that we should expect this as his new norm. So you'd rather that he be worse? C'mon. Not at all what I suggested. So the answer would be no. I’d rather they don’t over-react to his awesome season. And yes, I’m blaming them for something they haven’t done yet.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 5, 2019 13:23:40 GMT -5
So you'd rather that he be worse? C'mon. Not at all what I suggested. So the answer would be no. I’d rather they don’t over-react to his awesome season. And yes, I’m blaming them for something they haven’t done yet. Good "problem" to have.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 5, 2019 16:17:47 GMT -5
It can't be said often enough that, with very few exceptions, relief pitching is a crap shoot. Those of you who insisted that it was Kimbrel or nothing would have gotten both if he'd signed with the Sox. His numbers rival those of Brasier at this point, and both could turn it around tomorrow. That's the nature of the role.
The team would be smart to offer Workman a reasonable salary and not a cent more. Truth is he could regress into mundane .territory next year. It's that unpredictable as all of us have seen.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 5, 2019 17:31:59 GMT -5
It can't be said often enough that, with very few exceptions, relief pitching is a crap shoot. Those of you who insisted that it was Kimbrel or nothing would have gotten both if he'd signed with the Sox. His numbers rival those of Brasier at this point, and both could turn it around tomorrow. That's the nature of the role. The team would be smart to offer Workman a reasonable salary and not a cent more. Truth is he could regress into mundane .territory next year. It's that unpredictable as all of us have seen. Well he still has another year of arbitration, so I don't think it can be an issue for next year. In fact, they can save some money because he's so bad at saves.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 6, 2019 7:06:46 GMT -5
It can't be said often enough that, with very few exceptions, relief pitching is a crap shoot. Those of you who insisted that it was Kimbrel or nothing would have gotten both if he'd signed with the Sox. His numbers rival those of Brasier at this point, and both could turn it around tomorrow. That's the nature of the role. The team would be smart to offer Workman a reasonable salary and not a cent more. Truth is he could regress into mundane .territory next year. It's that unpredictable as all of us have seen. I believe Kimbrel is likely to be done for the season, elbow strain, so there's that.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 6, 2019 17:32:00 GMT -5
It can't be said often enough that, with very few exceptions, relief pitching is a crap shoot. Those of you who insisted that it was Kimbrel or nothing would have gotten both if he'd signed with the Sox. His numbers rival those of Brasier at this point, and both could turn it around tomorrow. That's the nature of the role. The team would be smart to offer Workman a reasonable salary and not a cent more. Truth is he could regress into mundane .territory next year. It's that unpredictable as all of us have seen. I believe Kimbrel is likely to be done for the season, elbow strain, so there's that. However, he was so superior to everyone on the Red Sox because he was 13/15 in save opportunities with a 6.64 FIP. Imagine if he were used like Workman or Barnes. He'd have 2 saves and 18 blown saves.
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