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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 23, 2018 13:58:17 GMT -5
Gotta say I'm surprised no Ockimey. Sure he has issues, but age 22 season had OPS over .800, 20 HRs in AA/AAA. He's getting picked, the only question is what is the chances he sticks on a roster for the year? All depends on the team,but a lot higher than you'd like, which is no chance at all. His on base skills and power give him a chance. I really wanted to see him a full year at AAA before making a decision. You say OPS over .800 and 20 homers like that season wouldn’t get you DFAed by the Rays. We’ll see what happens but I’m not that worried. Teams just don’t value 1b/DH types highly these days, and it’s much harder to carry an extra bench bat than a garbage time reliever. Wasn't everyone one of the DFA because of cost? Like they weren't going to spend 4 million on that, because they could get it for minimum salary? Maybe I missed some moves, I just don't recall them releasing minimum salary guys like that.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 23, 2018 14:32:13 GMT -5
You say OPS over .800 and 20 homers like that season wouldn’t get you DFAed by the Rays. We’ll see what happens but I’m not that worried. Teams just don’t value 1b/DH types highly these days, and it’s much harder to carry an extra bench bat than a garbage time reliever. Wasn't everyone one of the DFA because of cost? Like they weren't going to spend 4 million on that, because they could get it for minimum salary? Maybe I missed some moves, I just don't recall them releasing minimum salary guys like that. I think the point is, it's not that valuable of a asset. Especially if you have zero value on the glove side. Cron is be more valuable than Ockimey for example if he takes 2 or 3 million dollars on a one year deal.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 23, 2018 14:54:08 GMT -5
Goes to show that the Sox might have also overpaid for Pearce if Chron is getting DFA'D at 4 million. Chron might be a better player then Pearce at this point.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 23, 2018 15:26:23 GMT -5
I guess I look at it differently, the Cron's of the world aren't valuable because so many teams are making guys like Ockimey available for cheap to nothing. Rays were willing to pay Cron 2.3 million, but not 5.25 million. When you can get a platoon of two guys like Ockimey for like a million bucks. You bring 3-4 to camp and see who wins. Teams like the Rays every dollar counts. A few million is nothing for the Red Sox, but just massive for the Rays.
I look at Cron a College guy, first round pick and I look at his age 21-24 seasons and its why I hate maybe losing Ockimey for nothing. Cron at age 22 wasn't lighting high A on fire. Different player less strikeouts, lower OBP, higher average but the OPS is rather close with Cron being in a lower level. Anyone really doubt Ockimey couldn't beat an .843 OPS if he played a full year at high A last year? Cron was worth 4.7 bwar over 4 seasons and cost 3.9 million.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2018 15:34:31 GMT -5
Goes to show that the Sox might have also overpaid for Pearce if Chron is getting DFA'D at 4 million. Chron might be a better player then Pearce at this point. Pedro, you keep harping on the point that Pearce is overpaid. What should he have been paid? He just OPSed .900 for the Red Sox, hit like a beast in the post-season and displayed surprising good defense at 1b. Should the Sox have offered him $4 million, a pay cut from last year, and hoped he'd come back? Pearce had excellent partial seasons in 2014, 2016, and 2018, better rates than Cron has ever really displayed. I think at this point Pearce is a better player than Cron.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 23, 2018 15:47:13 GMT -5
Harping about a World Series MVP making a whopping $6.25 million, the same amount he made last season seems a little misguided. What will the Red Sox not be able to do now because of "wasting" so much money?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 23, 2018 17:57:22 GMT -5
Goes to show that the Sox might have also overpaid for Pearce if Chron is getting DFA'D at 4 million. Chron might be a better player then Pearce at this point. Pedro, you keep harping on the point that Pearce is overpaid. What should he have been paid? He just OPSed .900 for the Red Sox, hit like a beast in the post-season and displayed surprising good defense at 1b. Should the Sox have offered him $4 million, a pay cut from last year, and hoped he'd come back? Pearce had excellent partial seasons in 2014, 2016, and 2018, better rates than Cron has ever really displayed. I think at this point Pearce is a better player than Cron. I do not want the Sox overpaying for past performance. What he did in 2018 is irrelevant. It's all about 2019 now. It's at least debatable if Pearce is better going forward at age 35. There's also a guy like Mark Trumbo if you want another guy to look at. I just hope Pearce's decline doesn't come bigtime in 2019 when there was plenty of other options out there.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 23, 2018 19:52:32 GMT -5
Goes to show that the Sox might have also overpaid for Pearce if Chron is getting DFA'D at 4 million. Chron might be a better player then Pearce at this point. They've hit RHP the same the last 3 years (113 wRC+ Pearce, 111 Cron); Pearce has has a 120 to 111 edge over the last five. But Pearce has a 143 to 120 edge vs. LHP the last three years (139 to 111 the last 5). He's a better defensive 1B and has defensive versatility where Cron has none: he can play an average corner OF, and 2B and 3B in an emergency. So no, there's almost no possibility at all that Cron is a better player than Pearce. That you wish it were true to justify your opinion that Pearce just got overpaid doesn't make it true. I do not want the Sox overpaying for past performance. What he did in 2018 is irrelevant. Except for being the single best predictor for what he'll do in 2019, yes, that's true.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 23, 2018 20:01:57 GMT -5
Goes to show that the Sox might have also overpaid for Pearce if Chron is getting DFA'D at 4 million. Chron might be a better player then Pearce at this point. They've hit RHP the same the last 3 years (113 wRC+ Pearce, 111 Cron); Pearce has has a 120 to 111 edge over the last five. But Pearce has a 143 to 120 edge vs. LHP the last three years (139 to 111 the last 5). He's a better defensive 1B and has defensive versatility where Cron has none: he can play an average corner OF, and 2B and 3B in an emergency. So no, there's almost no possibility at all that Cron is a better player than Pearce. That you wish it were true to justify your opinion that Pearce just got overpaid doesn't make it true. I do not want the Sox overpaying for past performance. What he did in 2018 is irrelevant. Except for being the single best predictor for what he'll do in 2019, yes, that's true. Just because a player has past experience in multiple positions doesn't mean he's fit to do it anymore again AT THE AGE OF 35. The decline of Pearce can not be predicted at any point because of his age. C.J. Cron is 28 and he is more durable. 28!!! It's not impossible to think that Cron will be better moving forward, not because "I want it to be true," but because these things happen all the time in the game of baseball. It's a young man's game after all. In fact, Cron could be better on a better contract in 2019.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 23, 2018 20:13:14 GMT -5
Cron's estimated 2019 cost in arbitration was 5.2 million, not 4 million.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2018 20:47:36 GMT -5
Pedro, you keep harping on the point that Pearce is overpaid. What should he have been paid? He just OPSed .900 for the Red Sox, hit like a beast in the post-season and displayed surprising good defense at 1b. Should the Sox have offered him $4 million, a pay cut from last year, and hoped he'd come back? Pearce had excellent partial seasons in 2014, 2016, and 2018, better rates than Cron has ever really displayed. I think at this point Pearce is a better player than Cron. I do not want the Sox overpaying for past performance. What he did in 2018 is irrelevant. It's all about 2019 now. It's at least debatable if Pearce is better going forward at age 35. There's also a guy like Mark Trumbo if you want another guy to look at. I just hope Pearce's decline doesn't come bigtime in 2019 when there was plenty of other options out there. You have him suddenly feeling his age in 2019 and you could be correct but I guess I have to wonder why you feel he's suddenly going to decline? Most players decline well before 35. Yet Pearce displayed an excellent batting eye so he's not getting himself out and he certainly had the bat speed. To my untrained eye he wasn't getting lucky last year. I'm not saying he's a superstar or will always be as amazing as he was last season with the Sox, but I don't think it's crazy to think that he'll be reasonably productive. At some point he'll fall off a cliff offensively but I don't see much in the way of evidence that it occurs this year, especially given that this guy in my opinion has a swing made for Fenway. I think you'll be pretty happy with his production for a measly $6.25 million, a competent option to spell Moreland when he's slumping and a guy who rakes against southpaws who is actually better defensively than he was getting credit for. I think he'll be fine next year.
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Post by wildsox on Nov 23, 2018 21:39:57 GMT -5
They've hit RHP the same the last 3 years (113 wRC+ Pearce, 111 Cron); Pearce has has a 120 to 111 edge over the last five. But Pearce has a 143 to 120 edge vs. LHP the last three years (139 to 111 the last 5). He's a better defensive 1B and has defensive versatility where Cron has none: he can play an average corner OF, and 2B and 3B in an emergency. So no, there's almost no possibility at all that Cron is a better player than Pearce. That you wish it were true to justify your opinion that Pearce just got overpaid doesn't make it true. Except for being the single best predictor for what he'll do in 2019, yes, that's true. Just because a player has past experience in multiple positions doesn't mean he's fit to do it anymore again AT THE AGE OF 35. The decline of Pearce can not be predicted at any point because of his age. C.J. Cron is 28 and he is more durable. 28!!! It's not impossible to think that Cron will be better moving forward, not because "I want it to be true," but because these things happen all the time in the game of baseball. It's a young man's game after all. In fact, Cron could be better on a better contract in 2019. Except Pearce isn’t just any player he was the World Series MVP! He took a 1 year deal because he wants to be here. Thinking it’s a bad deal is absolute nonsense.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 23, 2018 22:35:28 GMT -5
Steamer projections for 2019:
Cron: .241/.303/.436, 102 wRC+ Pearce: .266/.344/.468, 117 wRC+
I'd also take Pearce defensively at first base.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 24, 2018 1:32:01 GMT -5
All in on the dynamic duo of MM and Pearce. First Base is one of several positions on the 2019 Sox that are likely to deliver improved offensive performance above what was the best offense in 2018.
All while Chavis, Dalbec, whomever get finishing touches in time for 2020 at league minimum. When (if) MM and Pearce (and Nunie) finish their jobs with maybe another ring, they will leave about $20M a year to help extend the core. Great job DDo.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 24, 2018 1:40:41 GMT -5
My problem isn't generally with Cron versus Pearce. My problem is generally the market for RHB hitting powered platoon first baseman versus Pearce.
Mark Trumbo Pearce Cron
My guess is that Pearce gets the biggest deal by far, like by maybe even 3-4 million.
Yeah no big deal until we see what the Sox needs are at the trade deadline in 2019. If the Sox aren't in a position to pick up a contract because they're maxed out in terms of dollars and spending, well the fact that you spent 17 million AAV million dollars on your bench this year might be part of the reason why.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 24, 2018 4:05:42 GMT -5
I'll take a slight maybe overpay in free agency, rather than trying to save money and have to trade prospects to fill holes later. You have to wait guys out to get deals and we shouldn't be doing that. Slight overpays are worth it to get the guys you want and we need.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 24, 2018 4:07:40 GMT -5
Yeah no big deal until we see what the Sox needs are at the trade deadline in 2019. If the Sox aren't in a position to pick up a contract because they're maxed out in terms of dollars and spending, well the fact that you spent 17 million AAV million dollars on your bench this year might be part of the reason why. a one year contract for $6.25M and maxed out don't belong in the same sentence for a team like the boston red sox unless they are trying to reset the luxury tax...which isn't happening in 2019.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 24, 2018 4:31:45 GMT -5
Yeah no big deal until we see what the Sox needs are at the trade deadline in 2019. If the Sox aren't in a position to pick up a contract because they're maxed out in terms of dollars and spending, well the fact that you spent 17 million AAV million dollars on your bench this year might be part of the reason why. a one year contract for $6.25M and maxed out don't belong in the same sentence for a team like the boston red sox unless they are trying to reset the luxury tax...which isn't happening in 2019. I mean every team has a limit in what they can spend, even when they are spending to the max of what they can seem to spend (I believe the correct word here is budget). We will see what the Sox maximum of what they will pay in 2019, because we are about to quickly find out, especially if they do in fact resign Eovaldi. Think about this for a second, a Eovaldi resigning puts you close to 230-233 million dollars!!!! You spent on 2 free agents and you don't even have a closer yet at 230-233 million dollars!!! Now a closer puts you at 245 million dollars or close to it!!! You haven't even reached the trade deadline and you're over the second tax line by over 6 million dollars!!!! Forget about extensions to Sale and Xander at this point who are free agents after the 2019 season!!! (Exclamations to emphasize the point of spending) If the Sox are cheaping out and are afraid to take on contracts based on acquisition needs at the deadline in 2019, then yeap, there might be a good reason to get mad at a slight overpay at a platoon position to begin a offseason. A platoon position that had multiple similar options for probably cheaper dollars. Hey if the Sox just keep spending and spending, then there's no mistake being made here. What are we expecting here, a 260 million dollar team payroll wise?!! We will find out come trade deadline in 2019 how deep the Sox pockets really are. Yeap 3-4 extra million dollars is no big deal and can be mocked, but a extra 3-4 million dollars can buy you virtually most reliever contracts remaining at the trade deadline for example (most middle relievers making 7-9 million AAV a year, which equals out to 3-4 million around the trade deadline for the rest of the season). The correlation I'm trying to make here is that both tax lines don't matter in this case. The Sox are going way over both lines. It's all about how much money the Sox want to dump on a payroll for one single solitary season. The free agency period of 2019 could put the Sox over the ENTIRE 2018 team's payroll in terms of salaries and you haven't even began the season yet in 2019.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 24, 2018 9:24:37 GMT -5
Pedro, it seems clear that the Sox are ok being over the line in order to provide the best chance of winning again in 2019. The competition is not sitting still. Pearce brings so much to this team, along with his bat, he is worth any premium he is being paid for 2019. IF they decide to reset in 2020, they will have every opportunity by losing the salaries of Panda, Hanley’s last $5M, Porcello, Pearce, MM, Nunie and others cutting $65M to $80M off the payroll by this time next year. Meanwhile Lin, Chavis, Dalbec, Lakins, Feltman, Shawaryn, Hernandez x 2, and others will be filling MLB spots at league minimum in 2020 allowing DDo to re-set while extending the core, at least those who want to stay, and trade and sign as needed to remain a contender.
I would usually agree with you about keeping payroll down, but not this year. For this special team it is my hope that DDo keeps pushing the limit to enhance pitching excellence by signing Eovaldi, as well as Pom on a pillow deal as #6 starter/longman/opener, to complement Wright, Johnson, Velasquez. Also to bring back Kelly and another big arm for the Pen. And to keep a sharp eye for trades and signings. I very much trust DDo to maximize both talent acquisition and payroll efficiency.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 24, 2018 9:48:48 GMT -5
a one year contract for $6.25M and maxed out don't belong in the same sentence for a team like the boston red sox unless they are trying to reset the luxury tax...which isn't happening in 2019. I mean every team has a limit in what they can spend, even when they are spending to the max of what they can seem to spend (I believe the correct word here is budget). We will see what the Sox maximum of what they will pay in 2019, because we are about to quickly find out, especially if they do in fact resign Eovaldi. Think about this for a second, a Eovaldi resigning puts you close to 230-233 million dollars!!!! You spent on 2 free agents and you don't even have a closer yet at 230-233 million dollars!!! Now a closer puts you at 245 million dollars or close to it!!! You haven't even reached the trade deadline and you're over the second tax line by over 6 million dollars!!!! Forget about extensions to Sale and Xander at this point who are free agents after the 2019 season!!! (Exclamations to emphasize the point of spending) If the Sox are cheaping out and are afraid to take on contracts based on acquisition needs at the deadline in 2019, then yeap, there might be a good reason to get mad at a slight overpay at a platoon position to begin a offseason. A platoon position that had multiple similar options for probably cheaper dollars. Hey if the Sox just keep spending and spending, then there's no mistake being made here. What are we expecting here, a 260 million dollar team payroll wise?!! We will find out come trade deadline in 2019 how deep the Sox pockets really are. Yeap 3-4 extra million dollars is no big deal and can be mocked, but a extra 3-4 million dollars can buy you virtually most reliever contracts remaining at the trade deadline for example (most middle relievers making 7-9 million AAV a year, which equals out to 3-4 million around the trade deadline for the rest of the season). The correlation I'm trying to make here is that both tax lines don't matter in this case. The Sox are going way over both lines. It's all about how much money the Sox want to dump on a payroll for one single solitary season. The free agency period of 2019 could put the Sox over the ENTIRE 2018 team's payroll in terms of salaries and you haven't even began the season yet in 2019. Pedro, you keep bringing up the market. OK. There's Cron. There's Trumbo. Take Trumbo. Do you think he's a guy who's going to platoon a lot and be sharp? How about his Ks and his low OBP? The Sox were a high contact team last season and for a reason. Cora already said that a guy hitting .210 with 30 homers is not what he wants. And Cron isn't a helluva lot better. Pearce is a perfect fit for the 2019 team. You're concerned about budget. The Sox made it clear - they don't care what they spend in 2019 as long as it doesn't hamstring them in 2020. They don't have a closer? Maybe they do. Maybe Barnes is that guy. His numbers weren't far off of Kimbrel's last season. Or maybe they audition Barnes and if he fails they pick somebody up midseason and their salary is pro-rated. They're not going to fail to get what they need because they're scared of spending. As it was last season, they were over the limit, but didn't get the setup man that some of us thought they needed. It wasn't because they cheaped out. A trade fell through and then they decided that the rest of what was available wasn't better than what they already had. And they turned out to be correct. But it wasn't because they were scared to add payroll.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 24, 2018 11:15:48 GMT -5
But the Red Sox will never win the WAR per $$$ championship by paying their players well!
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Nov 24, 2018 11:42:06 GMT -5
Are we really complaining about a 1 year deal at $6.25M to bring back the World Series MVP? I’ve seen it all.
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Post by cdj on Nov 24, 2018 11:43:04 GMT -5
I know Cron. I worked with him when he was in the cape league. He’s a goofy, fun-loving dude. I’ve been pulling for him since he got drafted.
That being said, he was DFA’d because the rays need to pinch every penny and because he has zero positional flexibility
He’s a capable hitter, but so is Pearce. Pearce has probably even been the better hitter. Plus Pearce at least gives you some versatility and has shown that he can get it done when it matters the most.
Pearce is the safer option imo, especially when talking about a platoon/bench spot
I’d rather have Pearce and I’m naturally inclined to lean towards Cron in any discussion lol
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 24, 2018 11:45:56 GMT -5
Are we really complaining about a 1 year deal at $6.25M to bring back the World Series MVP? I’ve seen it all. If only they paid him $5.75 million, they could have done so much more with that extra $500K.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 24, 2018 11:50:02 GMT -5
But the Red Sox will never win the WAR per $$$ championship by paying their players well! Except that Pearce is projected for the best dollar per WAR player out of anyone being discussed here and it’s not really even close.
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