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2019 Patriots Offseason Thread
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 5, 2019 14:34:54 GMT -5
A couple of the post combine mock drafts don’t have Lawrence in the first round. Doesn’t mean much but just shows that there’s a decent chance he lasts.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 5, 2019 14:41:03 GMT -5
Would love to see the Pats take Isabella in the 3rd round. Think he’s still available then?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 5, 2019 14:48:01 GMT -5
All depends on the position like does 3 cone matter for offensive linemen or defensive linemen? They are rarely if ever going to stop and completely change direction twice like the 3 cone drill. Almost every other position 100%, yet speed really matters for certain positions like WR and CB. A lot of the people that know the Patriots just pick out the top 3 cone drill guys and if they fit include them as possible picks. At times the Patriots roster was like the HOF for top combine 3 cone times. "(The 3-Cone Drill is) the single most important drill at the combine, plain and simple," an anonymous NFL Scout told SportsDay Dallas. "I want to know how the player performs in space and this helps show change of direction, explosiveness and overall athleticism. There is validity to this test translating to the football field." At the time this article was written, the top 21 sack artists of the previous 3 years all had better than average three cone times. So yes, the three cone does matter for down linemen. Getting past blockers and redirected toward the quarterback takes an extraordinary amount of flexibility and coordination. If you watch Flowers on tape, you’ll notice most of his sacks come off stunts, bull rushes, and sheer effort. He’s a nice player but no Chandler Jones. Is the 3 cone drill the most important overall? Yea I agree with that 100% when looking at all positions. Yet that article does a rather poor job showing a great correlation between Defensive lineman. First off it looked at 32 guys and 18 were above average, 3 below, and 11 without numbers. Which is lazy reporting because even if you don't get invited to the combine you run the drills at your pro-day. I don't for a second think 11 guys were injured. So the only thing you know is 18 of 32 guys were above average. There's the real issue above average is the cutoff to show the importance of the 3 cone drill. Trey Flowers isn't included because it's a 2018 article yet he has 21 sacks over the last three years and was well below average on the 3 cone drill. PFF number six rated DE last year. I also can't stress how bad it is to measure defensive lineman by sacks and not something like total pressures. Chandler Jones gets sacks, but Flowers is twice the player he is. Defensive lineman jobs aren't just sacks, not even close. Even if you wanted to just look at pass rushers, then include sacks, QB hits and hurries. That will give you a true pass rushing grade, not sacks. This article is like someone trying to judge pitchers based off of ERA of hitters based off of home runs. If you want great correlation go look at CBs, you'll find the majority are all well above average and you won't find a bunch of top players like Lawrence and Flowers well below average. You can set the standard above average, not average. You can't be a top cornerback with below average 3 cone times, you can be a top Defensive Lineman though. Which was my whole point, the correlation of 3 cone drills is a lot less for defensive lineman than most positions. It's why Bill who targets top 3 cone guys at most positions doesn't along the defensive line. He looks for guys with size, strength, and production. It makes perfect sense you don't see Defensive lineman stopping and changing directions 180 degrees three times during the majority of plays or frankly every during games. You don't want guys that aren't athletic at all, but you don't need great athletes either. You talked about Bill mining athletes and his brilliance with that is that every position is different. For him he wants to wear you down in the trenches and that is much more size and strength than all world athletes. He wants 3 down defensive lineman, not specialist on the defensive line. I think it works well because Flowers with his below average time just dominated 2 of the last 3 Superbowls. Nine career playoff games 5.5 sacks, 22 QB hits and a ton more hurries. Chandler Jones in nine playoff games has two sacks and 8 QB hits. |
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Post by texs31 on Mar 5, 2019 14:48:58 GMT -5
Some are listing Isabella as a "riser" after his combine performance. FWIW.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 5, 2019 14:52:39 GMT -5
Lawrence's teammate Huggins did 35 reps at 305 pounds now that is crazy impressive in my book.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 5, 2019 14:55:34 GMT -5
Would love to see the Pats take Isabella in the 3rd round. Think he’s still available then? I'd say like 65-35 he is right now. I wouldn't take him before the third round, maybe late second. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 5, 2019 14:57:29 GMT -5
I'm starting to be convinced that Murray goes to the Cardinals. I'm also not sure why you worry about him throwing over lineman when he's only a half inch shorter than Russell Wilson.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 5, 2019 15:18:31 GMT -5
Love to see how Kyler Murray is going to throw over linemen like that. Sounds like there's no way he's dropping to 32 now. I don’t know, there are a ton of players, especially linemen. It really depends; I hate to be captain obvious but not everyone wants that position so the teams that do need to want it more than someone else. There were a ton of great combines for guys. Take Burns. UMass said it’d be crazy for him to go top 10 like some mocks had him then he shows up 15 pounds heavier and runs a blazing 40. That’s just one example. A couple receivers are going to go high because of combines. Some teams desperately need offensive linemen and the top DBs didn’t have great combined which may make them fall but not out of the first. Lawrence just doesn’t play a high priority position and on top of it he had the failed drug test so that’s going to be an issue Yea it was crazy at his College weight of 230, yet 249 is different. Still a little smaller than most teams like, yet massive difference. My only question is why did he play at 230 if he's that quick at 249? Not a Patriot type player, but he likely goes before our pick and knocks a guy down. Which is great! |
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 5, 2019 15:37:58 GMT -5
I'm starting to be convinced that Murray goes to the Cardinals. I'm also not sure why you worry about him throwing over lineman when he's only a half inch shorter than Russell Wilson. I've seen how short QBs can be stopped and that's with guys with huge wingspans coming up the middle. The only counter is moving out of the pocket and those QBs don't seem to last very long. Now they can still be good, but it is a huge disadvantage to them and the reason why most NFL QBs are 6'4" or more. I don't think Russell Wilson is going to have a long career, but will be fine while he's still athletic enough and not hurt yet. Drew Brees was totally dominated by the Cowboys this year doing exactly that. At some point soon, that's going to be the blueprint for stopping shorter QBs. Pressure up the middle, making it impossible for them to see or step into throws. It's also interesting that Brees completely destroyed the Eagles 48-7 with their Wide 9 defense, which is just about the exact opposite of what I'm describing. A 3 down defensive tackle with a 7 foot wingspan is a perfect component in stopping short QBs. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 5, 2019 15:40:50 GMT -5
Don't sleep on Izzo getting time at TE this year, I think he will be an upgrade over Allen. The Pats will still draft one but I think Izzo will be part a big part of the plan.
Going to be really interesting to see what the Pats do with those first 6 picks. My guess is they take 4 guys and either trade up to next year or use 2 to trade up this year or both actually. Lots of good looking defensive players all over the board. Given the McCourtys age you can't sleep on the secondaries future so they could use bodies across the board on D.
When was the last time they hit on a WR in the draft? Edelman? I am to the point I just can't get excited about a receiver until he is on the field with Brady, regardless if it is a FA or a pick. Too many wasted picks thru the years IMO. Stick to the big guys they have a better track record. Go get Tate and another retread, they have better luck with experienced players. Just a little anyways.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 5, 2019 16:12:37 GMT -5
I found these interactive mock drafts and am hooked. Fanspeak is my favorite one. This is my latest. I tend to start the draft over when i see the computer go wonky at the top so it’s more realistic. If I had to do it over I would have picked Boykin where I took Sternberger and selected someone else entirely with that next pick... i do like Sternberger but that’s way too high. I got too obsessed with getting a TE  |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 5, 2019 16:22:40 GMT -5
Don't sleep on Izzo getting time at TE this year, I think he will be an upgrade over Allen. The Pats will still draft one but I think Izzo will be part a big part of the plan. Going to be really interesting to see what the Pats do with those first 6 picks. My guess is they take 4 guys and either trade up to next year or use 2 to trade up this year or both actually. Lots of good looking defensive players all over the board. Given the McCourtys age you can't sleep on the secondaries future so they could use bodies across the board on D. When was the last time they hit on a WR in the draft? Edelman? I am to the point I just can't get excited about a receiver until he is on the field with Brady, regardless if it is a FA or a pick. Too many wasted picks thru the years IMO. Stick to the big guys they have a better track record. Go get Tate and another retread, they have better luck with experienced players. Just a little anyways. Izzo is a good bet to get PT, if he’s healthy. As far as receivers go, I hear you, but we were also told they can’t draft and develop corners because they had a bad stretch there. Now they have a great stretch there. Receivers are tough in this offense; they need to be smart. We should be looking at Whiteside from Stanford and Sills from West Virginia (they studied Patriots film). Is Brady going to attend preseason passing camp this year? That would be important for young receivers. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 5, 2019 17:26:57 GMT -5
I'm starting to be convinced that Murray goes to the Cardinals. I'm also not sure why you worry about him throwing over lineman when he's only a half inch shorter than Russell Wilson. I've seen how short QBs can be stopped and that's with guys with huge wingspans coming up the middle. The only counter is moving out of the pocket and those QBs don't seem to last very long. Now they can still be good, but it is a huge disadvantage to them and the reason why most NFL QBs are 6'4" or more. I don't think Russell Wilson is going to have a long career, but will be fine while he's still athletic enough and not hurt yet. Drew Brees was totally dominated by the Cowboys this year doing exactly that. At some point soon, that's going to be the blueprint for stopping shorter QBs. Pressure up the middle, making it impossible for them to see or step into throws. It's also interesting that Brees completely destroyed the Eagles 48-7 with their Wide 9 defense, which is just about the exact opposite of what I'm describing. A 3 down defensive tackle with a 7 foot wingspan is a perfect component in stopping short QBs. What is Brady's kryptonite? Preasure up the middle. Almost any QB will struggle with that. Just do what the Patriots do invest in a good offensive line. Murray is the same size basically as Wilson and they are fairly similar players. Wilson has made 5 pro bowls and shows zero signs of slowing down. If you get what Wilson has done, that is worth the first overall pick all day long even if he doesn't play another game in his career. Great athletes don't just become a pumkin at age 30. You don't not take a guy because he can't be Brady and play into his 40 's. It all comes down to can he pass, does he have the football instincts and smarts to play QB like Wilson. Then is he tough enough and not fragile. Add that to his running, throwing while moving and he could be great in the NFL right now the way the game is played. The fact he fits Arizona's new coaches offense perfectly and it makes sense. I wouldn't want to risk my neck out making a pick like that, yet I wouldn't worry for one second about massive defensive lineman either. Like the NFL has a lot of defensive tackles that are athletic with 7 foot wingspans. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 5, 2019 17:42:07 GMT -5
Miles Boykins is a guy I want us to draft. If you can get him at the end of round three that might be a steal. Let's give Brady some big targets that can have good hands and a large catch radius. He played in the slot and outside at Notre Dame. They ran an offense that was very similar to the Patriots. Shorter throws and move down the field while racking up first downs. He's also smart coming from Notre Dame. I'd consider taking him end of the second. Bill has to love that 3 cone time, 40 yard time, vertical, long jump, and 20 yard shuttle at 6'4" 220 pounds. Given his size it's likely he tested as the top WR at the combine overall. Metcalf is a freak, but he can't change direction which is a massive red flag. The only other guy would be Campbell but he's smaller and lighter.
I'd love to see two to three WRs taken. Lets give Brady some weapons to make things easier on him as he approaches social security. I would draft Boykins over Isabella. Josh Gordon showed how a bigger faster WR that has a big catch radius can really help Brady. I'd be thrilled with both, I just not see Boykins lasting till the late third. Heck he might not last to the late second.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 5, 2019 18:05:44 GMT -5
I've seen how short QBs can be stopped and that's with guys with huge wingspans coming up the middle. The only counter is moving out of the pocket and those QBs don't seem to last very long. Now they can still be good, but it is a huge disadvantage to them and the reason why most NFL QBs are 6'4" or more. I don't think Russell Wilson is going to have a long career, but will be fine while he's still athletic enough and not hurt yet. Drew Brees was totally dominated by the Cowboys this year doing exactly that. At some point soon, that's going to be the blueprint for stopping shorter QBs. Pressure up the middle, making it impossible for them to see or step into throws. It's also interesting that Brees completely destroyed the Eagles 48-7 with their Wide 9 defense, which is just about the exact opposite of what I'm describing. A 3 down defensive tackle with a 7 foot wingspan is a perfect component in stopping short QBs. What is Brady's kryptonite? Preasure up the middle. Almost any QB will struggle with that. Just do what the Patriots do invest in a good offensive line. It baffles me that teams don’t do more to have great offensive lines. That being said, not every one, meaning no one else, has a Scarnecchia... the guy is an absolute gem. Don’t get me wrong they’ve invested in the line but not nearly as heavily dollar or draft capital wise due to him. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it forever. The guy should get inducted into the Hall of Fame. I don’t care if he’s not a head coach; he’s had a massive impact on this Patriots dynasty. Possibly a greater impact than any other coach besides Bill. They won the SB the first year he left, with a lot of the same line, then it went to crap that next year. He came back and it was all good. So as important as it is to get good players to play on the line; you need the coaching too. I wish we had a young grad assistant strapped to Dante’s hip for training. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 5, 2019 18:06:57 GMT -5
Miles Boykins is a guy I want us to draft. If you can get him at the end of round three that might be a steal. Let's give Brady some big targets that can have good hands and a large catch radius. He played in the slot and outside at Notre Dame. They ran an offense that was very similar to the Patriots. Shorter throws and move down the field while racking up first downs. He's also smart coming from Notre Dame. I'd consider taking him end of the second. Bill has to love that 3 cone time, 40 yard time, vertical, long jump, and 20 yard shuttle at 6'4" 220 pounds. Given his size it's likely he tested as the top WR at the combine overall. Metcalf is a freak, but he can't change direction which is a massive red flag. The only other guy would be Campbell but he's smaller and lighter. I'd love to see two to three WRs taken. Lets give Brady some weapons to make things easier on him as he approaches social security. I would draft Boykins over Isabella. Josh Gordon showed how a bigger faster WR that has a big catch radius can really help Brady. I'd be thrilled with both, I just not see Boykins lasting till the late third. Heck he might not last to the late second. I know it’s a nitpick but 3 is too many, unless the 3rd is a 6/7 round pick you plan to have on the practice squad. Which then brings us back to Berrios. He was on IR... wonder how they feel about him. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 5, 2019 20:21:33 GMT -5
Well yea I was thinking late rounder like 6th or 7th rounder. We have to start taking more WRs. Brady needs more weapons as he gets older.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 5, 2019 21:01:19 GMT -5
My hope is not franchising Flowers holds some weight with him. I think players appreciate that. He’s going to get his bigger guarantee now; these guys hate getting franchised and I think part of the Patriots strategy to not use the tag has been tied to this. It worked with McCourty and Hightower; let’s add another to that list.
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Post by philarhody on Mar 6, 2019 13:16:10 GMT -5
On his podcast, Todd Mcshay mentioned that the Patriots staff were impressed by the speed of this safety class. It would be so Bill Belichick to draft a safety in the first round and a high character slot corner with the Bears pick. :-)
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 6, 2019 14:37:38 GMT -5
On his podcast, Todd Mcshay mentioned that the Patriots staff were impressed by the speed of this safety class. It would be so Bill Belichick to draft a safety in the first round and a high character slot corner with the Bears pick. :-) And so like me to freak out and watch them win another SB regardless |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 6, 2019 14:50:43 GMT -5
I'm going to assume Drew Lock is gone, who I really like.
There seems to be a fairly strong QB class in the 2nd to 5th round of this draft. A lot of Patriot type players.
Daniel Jones
Ryan Finley
Will Grier
Jarrett Stidman
Clayton Thornson
Who do you like?
Daniel Jones intrigues me, he has most traits the Patriots like. He'll require the most as you might have to take him at 32. Heck a lot of mocks have him gone by then. I need to research him more, but a lot of people love him.
I also like Ryan Finley. Good size, lots of experience and he's a game manager.
My sleeper right now is Clayton Thorson. Good size, good arm, can run and is very athletic. Had some big wins for a team without a ton of talent.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 6, 2019 15:18:03 GMT -5
I'm going to assume Drew Lock is gone, who I really like. There seems to be a fairly strong QB class in the 2nd to 5th round of this draft. A lot of Patriot type players. Daniel Jones Ryan Finley Will Grier Jarrett Stidman Clayton Thornson Who do you like? Daniel Jones intrigues me, he has most traits the Patriots like. He'll require the most as you might have to take him at 32. Heck a lot of mocks have him gone by then. I need to research him more, but a lot of people love him. I also like Ryan Finley. Good size, lots of experience and he's a game manager. My sleeper right now is Clayton Thorson. Good size, good arm, can run and is very athletic. Had some big wins for a team without a ton of talent. I'm going to guess you got that info about Thorson from Walterfootball. I got excited reading about him there and then I started reading everything else about him on other sites and didn't find anything that agrees with that site at all about Thorson. Compare what Walterfootball says to this and it's just not that exciting: thedraftnetwork.com/player/clayton-thorsonAnd Walterfootball compares him to Philip Rivers. He gets a backup grade of 5.4 from nfl.com www.nfl.com/prospects/clayton-thorson?id=32195448-4f82-8277-badb-cd047999cb4fLance Zierlein of NFL Network picked him to go in the 5th-6th round www.insidenu.com/2019/3/3/18248002/northwestern-nfl-scouting-combine-clayton-thorson-draft-2019So I started out reading walterfootball and thought Thorson was a possibility in the 2nd round. I almost made a post about it here. But it's more like he's probably just a backup, which is fine in the 4th or later. But I don't see him as a Brady replacement unless he completely exceeds his scouting reports. (or walterfootball is right and everyone else is wrong) I tend to doublecheck everything that is on walterfootball because they seem really far out there at times. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 6, 2019 15:39:05 GMT -5
I'm going to assume Drew Lock is gone, who I really like. There seems to be a fairly strong QB class in the 2nd to 5th round of this draft. A lot of Patriot type players. Daniel Jones Ryan Finley Will Grier Jarrett Stidman Clayton Thornson Who do you like? Daniel Jones intrigues me, he has most traits the Patriots like. He'll require the most as you might have to take him at 32. Heck a lot of mocks have him gone by then. I need to research him more, but a lot of people love him. I also like Ryan Finley. Good size, lots of experience and he's a game manager. My sleeper right now is Clayton Thorson. Good size, good arm, can run and is very athletic. Had some big wins for a team without a ton of talent. I like Grier and Jones but not in the first. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 6, 2019 15:58:23 GMT -5
Stidham not Stidman, he is my pick hopefully in the third but it might be a second.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 6, 2019 16:30:34 GMT -5
I'm going to assume Drew Lock is gone, who I really like. There seems to be a fairly strong QB class in the 2nd to 5th round of this draft. A lot of Patriot type players. Daniel Jones Ryan Finley Will Grier Jarrett Stidman Clayton Thornson Who do you like? Daniel Jones intrigues me, he has most traits the Patriots like. He'll require the most as you might have to take him at 32. Heck a lot of mocks have him gone by then. I need to research him more, but a lot of people love him. I also like Ryan Finley. Good size, lots of experience and he's a game manager. My sleeper right now is Clayton Thorson. Good size, good arm, can run and is very athletic. Had some big wins for a team without a ton of talent. I'm going to guess you got that info about Thorson from Walterfootball. I got excited reading about him there and then I started reading everything else about him on other sites and didn't find anything that agrees with that site at all about Thorson. Compare what Walterfootball says to this and it's just not that exciting: thedraftnetwork.com/player/clayton-thorsonAnd Walterfootball compares him to Philip Rivers. He gets a backup grade of 5.4 from nfl.com www.nfl.com/prospects/clayton-thorson?id=32195448-4f82-8277-badb-cd047999cb4fLance Zierlein of NFL Network picked him to go in the 5th-6th round www.insidenu.com/2019/3/3/18248002/northwestern-nfl-scouting-combine-clayton-thorson-draft-2019So I started out reading walterfootball and thought Thorson was a possibility in the 2nd round. I almost made a post about it here. But it's more like he's probably just a backup, which is fine in the 4th or later. But I don't see him as a Brady replacement unless he completely exceeds his scouting reports. (or walterfootball is right and everyone else is wrong) Lance Zierlein who I love said those exact same things, he has all the physical tools. Compares him to Kizer a guy that I loved in College. A guy I still believe could be a very good QB if he could cutdown his turnovers. At the same time guys like him are hard to judge given his teams talent level. He's not Jimmy playing in division AA. He's not Kizer with very good talent. He won three straight bowl games and made Northwestern relevant for the first time in what a decade? I'm not talking about taking him high, yet mid to latter rounds and I really like him. I really just need the wonderlic test to really nail these guys down. Just remember most guys taken after the first two rounds are seen as likely Back-ups. Kiper called Brady a practice squad player. Most of these guys it all starts with where they'll go. Like I really like Jones, but you'd have to love him to take him. I really like Finley, but he's likely a round 2-3 guy. Thorson is a lower round guy that has those physical tools, improved his completion percentage for 4 straight years and just seems tough. He actually started four straight years. As long as he's smart I like him. He kept Northwestern in that game against Notre Dame even though they were killing him with preasure. That team had some OK defenders, but very little offensive talent. Edit; All three of those reports are similar from nfl.com, walterfootball, and insidenu. Yet you posted the thedraftnetwork saying he has a weak arm. Like really if you watch his combine deep throws how can you say he has a weak arm? That's the second thedraftnetwork scouting report that doesn't seem to make any sense. |
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