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Post by telson13 on Feb 18, 2019 19:41:04 GMT -5
Wanted to reply to your other post but tryna cut out the prior text 🤣 So, some thoughts on hit tool and our ‘18 draft. Lots here so I’ll break it up! I actually really liked this draft, for a few reasons. The first is that, although they didn’t necessarily get really high-end hit tool players, I also think a big part of success in that area comes down to projection. In other words, outstanding hit tools tend to get guys drafted pretty highly, unless they have glaring weaknesses elsewhere. A future 65-70 hit player (say, 40-50 present) is going in the first two rounds unless he’s a DH-LF type with limited power, or a slap-hitting 2b who looks defensively inadequate and limited to utility, etc. I mean, look at Nick Madrigal: defensively adequate 2b (they’re the least successful position in terms of reaching MLB and having “success”), excellent speed, limited power...40/70 present/future hit, drafted 1-4. So a readily identifiable hit tool is a huge draw. So I think the key to drafting “hit” guys well, ie panning for gold, is finding either 1) a player who’s been overlooked because his present hit tool is possibly underrated due to coaching/use/trained approach (like, I think, Duran), or 2) someone with tremendous athletic ability who shows signs of being capable due to elite innate skills that show up with newer methods of scouting (like neuroscouting, Mookie being the time example). Those guys are obviously risky and “raw,” and probably have “disqualifying” other issues, such as in Mookie’s case his size and perceived lack of potential power, as well as being considered unlikely to stick at SS (which he didn’t). A guy like Buxton...idk. He looks like he has critical problems with pitch identification OR processing speed, which I think is what neuroscouting tries to get at. A guy might be great at *seeing* spin, he might be able to tell you 100% what pitch is coming every time. But if he doesn’t *process* it fast enough, he’s going to swing and miss a lot. And organizational hitting philosophy could compound that. I’ve argued before that I think Buxton is a poor fit in MN, where they’ve historically espoused hitting in a contact-based, up-the-middle/oppo approach that kills power and results in guys hitting down on the ball, not staying in plane. Ortiz is my best example (https://blogs.mprnews.org/newscut/2014/05/the-biggest-blunder-in-minnesota-sports-history-david-ortiz/), but Joe Mauer was another. He’s 6’5” and a strong guy, but basically a patient singles hitter. The “High BA” (through high BABIP typical of a middle-oppo approach, see Derek Jeter), approach has some merits for players with speed/contact skills, but it can be problematic. It’s all well and good for players with limited power, because LD (even soft oppo liners) have very high BAs, and GB have higher BAs than FB...which are almost always outs unless they leave the park. So a light-hitting guy with speed should theoretically benefit, although if I recall, hard grounders might actually be worse BA-wise than soft ones, and they essentially never go for extra bases (beyond hard shots past the corners). I think MN tried to utilize Buxton’s speed, much the way Lin was taught when he was coming up. The fundamental issue there is that hitting down on the ball leaves VERY little room for error when it comes to contact. Consider the paths of pitch coming in at an angle slightly downward (especially breaking pitches), and a flat or slightly downward swing path: those two paths meet at a very small point. The timing and bat control needs to be near-perfect. Any mistake (delay in pitch identification, minor change in swing path, etc) means the hitter misses that point and either whiffs, or at best fails to barrel up enough that he pops out or hits a worm-burner. Look at Buxton’s “development: www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14161&position=OF. His O-Sw rate has gone up from a very solid sub-30% to nearly 40%. He CHASES, meaning he’s going after pitchers’ pitches. He also just swings more now, maybe out of frustration, as his overall Sw rate has gone from 45 to 54%. Yeah, he’s buying their philosophy, because he’s making better contact on swings outside the zone...but he shouldn’t be swinging at those pitches to begin with. His Z-contact rate is fine, at a little over 80%, and his O-contact has gone from a very bad 46% to an almost-OK 59%. **But those aren’t pitches he’s going to do any damage on!!** bad contact is probably **worse** than no contact. I think Buxton’s been sorta ruined by being taught he should just focus on contact.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 18, 2019 20:12:41 GMT -5
I saw JDM talking somewhere about his swing, and how he focuses on staying in-plane, which results in an upward bat path and more FB. It’s basically the Ted Williams philosophy, but he gave a great explanation of how it helps him make contact. By staying in-plane, there’s a short LINE over the plate, rather than a single POINT, for contact. He’s more able to make slight errors in timing, because the margin is much greater. The timeframe for solid contact is exponentially larger, even if it’s still tiny. But those milliseconds matter. And, by focusing on *barreling*, not pure contact, he does damage when he *does* hit the ball. I don’t think it’s any surprise that Mookie bought into this and saw a huge increase in his barrel rate last year, which coincided with a big BABIP jump. Hit the ball hard enough, often enough, on a slight upward plane, and you’re in the LD zone where 3 or 4 of every five goes for a hit.
I think Buxton really is a prime candidate for a swing change, and the sort of “aggressive selectivity” the Sox espouse. An in-plane swing would give him more leeway in terms of timing, which seems part of his problem, and on top of that it would probably help his overall contact...both by giving him that margin, and by creating some confidence that allows him to feel better about being selective. It looks to me like right now, he’s being taught a philosophy and approach that are eroding his skills and working counter to his innate strength of outstanding “twitch,” which should be producing a lot of hard LD to the gaps and 15-25 HR. Instead, he’s over-anxious, swinging at bad pitches just to make contact, and hitting grounders for outs and the occasional infield hit. Or, you know, popping out or whiffing. It sucks, cuz he’s SO talented and seems like such a nice guy. I really feel bad for him.
All of which is to say, hit tool is really a super-complex “tool.” And organizational philosophy/coaching *really* matter, in a way that they don’t for speed, or power, or arm strength (but do for defense...see Jeter with NY and his positioning; he was much better late in his career when he learned he was killing his effectiveness by bad positioning). It’s the toughest to asses because it involves everything from fine motor control to neural processing speed to flexibility. It’s also incredibly sensitive to approach/coaching, because the old CW kinda presumed a linear relationship between “contact” and BA. Analytics are changing that, and quality of contact is gaining steam, as well as “productivity” becoming recognized as largely divorced from BA. Casas, Decker, and Duran are projected as future 50 hit tools by the fg guys which is actually pretty good, since for Casas and Decker their power means greater productivity at a given contact rate. And for Duran (current/future 35/50; the higher current being as he’s a collegiate draftee), he obviously strikes them as a guy whose coaching limited his power, and who offers other outstanding tools/athleticism that suggests great growth potential.
I don’t see the Sox so much selling out “hit tool” for “power” in this draft so much as picking players whose hit tools they can coach and develop. Casas is a statcast darling...he **crushes** the ball. My guess is they like his eye well enough that they feel they can accept a good amount of swing-and-miss because they expect his contact quality to be outstanding. They may ask him to be more contact-oriented and selective (risk of more TTO in that case, think Aaron Judge...lots of pitches means more BB and more K), presuming his natural power will lead to good outcomes when he does make contact. That’ll lead to solid BAs (LD and HR) and probably a fair share of walks as pitchers don’t want to get smoked in the zone, but he’s a guy with so much raw power that he has some to spare, so to say, to make better contact.
Duran I think is sorta the opposite...his present hit tool was obviously more polished and they liked his contact ability, but they intend to modify his approach (and swing path maybe) to get away from the grounder-heavy Long Beach philosophy. My guess there is that they figure he can elevate the ball, converting raw to game power, and that strength and conditioning will turn some gap power into HR power. They may also have seen even his raw power as being under-assessed due to hitting style. He’s a guy who can probably sell out for power a bit but actually see his BA improve, because of the LD vs GB thing, if it comes with an elevated launch angle. Look again at Tzu-Wei Lin: he was routinely a .220 hitter who made great contact. He changed his swing, and viola!—his K rate shot up, but he still drew walks and he became a .300 hitter (in the minors, at least). Duran isn’t a small guy like Lin, he’s 6’2” and 200 lbs. And, he’s twitchy. Eric Davis was 6’3” and like 190, but he was ultra fast-twitchy and he hit lots of HR. Not saying Duran will, but that’s his body type. My feeling is that both of those guys are fair bets to exceed those hit tool projections, they could be closer to 60s.
Decker’s sort of in-between; I’m not as high on him as some, because I’m not quite as sold on his 50 hit tool projection, but I think he offers a balance between both Casas and Duran. I guess he’s not “exciting” because he doesn’t have another standout tool; Casas has the huge power and plus arm, Duran the blazing speed and projectable CF defense. Decker’s...sort of a Beni lite...a guy with average or slightly better tools across the board, Decker doesn’t have the 70 hit tool (cuz if he had that, he’d have gone top-10, obviously). Again, my guess is that they think he’s got some projectability in the hit tool, beyond what the general scouting consensus is. Or maybe they’re a little high on his power (although tbh, it’s not a commodity these days the way it was in the ‘80s-90s or even the oughts). But even a 50 hit tool is acceptable for COF if the player has plus power, particularly if that player can draw walks or field his position reasonably well. “Average” is relative, really, but I generally feel good about guys projected for average hit tools. I love the plus ones, but there’s something to be said for having no particular weakness. I think Decker has a good shot at being, idk, Jay Bruce? Not a star, but a good player who helps the team a lot early in his career by being essentially league-average or occasionally better, at what amounts to negligible cost. If they get 2-3 wins a year and maybe a career year at 4.5 WAR during his first six years, that’s tremendous value.
So overall, I think they did well to ID some players who they COULD draft (and that’s without discussing Kottam and Granberg, both of who are projectable as hitters, from a coaching/development standpoint) who offer clear paths to improving their hit tools. Picking where they did in the draft, they weren’t going to get future 65-70 hit guys with any other remotely useful skills. So, they focused on guys with other skills that give them value, and solid but not great hit tools which the Sox think are amenable to development. I’m very confident right now in their overall organizational hitting philosophy, and I’m particularly confident in their abilities to identify “future” hitters, and in particular, those whose potential is maybe underrated by other clubs.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jun 3, 2019 23:21:31 GMT -5
I saw JDM talking somewhere about his swing, and how he focuses on staying in-plane, which results in an upward bat path and more FB. It’s basically the Ted Williams philosophy, but he gave a great explanation of how it helps him make contact. By staying in-plane, there’s a short LINE over the plate, rather than a single POINT, for contact. He’s more able to make slight errors in timing, because the margin is much greater. The timeframe for solid contact is exponentially larger, even if it’s still tiny. But those milliseconds matter. And, by focusing on *barreling*, not pure contact, he does damage when he *does* hit the ball. I don’t think it’s any surprise that Mookie bought into this and saw a huge increase in his barrel rate last year, which coincided with a big BABIP jump. Hit the ball hard enough, often enough, on a slight upward plane, and you’re in the LD zone where 3 or 4 of every five goes for a hit. I think Buxton really is a prime candidate for a swing change, and the sort of “aggressive selectivity” the Sox espouse. An in-plane swing would give him more leeway in terms of timing, which seems part of his problem, and on top of that it would probably help his overall contact...both by giving him that margin, and by creating some confidence that allows him to feel better about being selective. It looks to me like right now, he’s being taught a philosophy and approach that are eroding his skills and working counter to his innate strength of outstanding “twitch,” which should be producing a lot of hard LD to the gaps and 15-25 HR. Instead, he’s over-anxious, swinging at bad pitches just to make contact, and hitting grounders for outs and the occasional infield hit. Or, you know, popping out or whiffing. It sucks, cuz he’s SO talented and seems like such a nice guy. I really feel bad for him. All of which is to say, hit tool is really a super-complex “tool.” And organizational philosophy/coaching *really* matter, in a way that they don’t for speed, or power, or arm strength (but do for defense...see Jeter with NY and his positioning; he was much better late in his career when he learned he was killing his effectiveness by bad positioning). It’s the toughest to asses because it involves everything from fine motor control to neural processing speed to flexibility. It’s also incredibly sensitive to approach/coaching, because the old CW kinda presumed a linear relationship between “contact” and BA. Analytics are changing that, and quality of contact is gaining steam, as well as “productivity” becoming recognized as largely divorced from BA. Casas, Decker, and Duran are projected as future 50 hit tools by the fg guys which is actually pretty good, since for Casas and Decker their power means greater productivity at a given contact rate. And for Duran (current/future 35/50; the higher current being as he’s a collegiate draftee), he obviously strikes them as a guy whose coaching limited his power, and who offers other outstanding tools/athleticism that suggests great growth potential. I don’t see the Sox so much selling out “hit tool” for “power” in this draft so much as picking players whose hit tools they can coach and develop. Casas is a statcast darling...he **crushes** the ball. My guess is they like his eye well enough that they feel they can accept a good amount of swing-and-miss because they expect his contact quality to be outstanding. They may ask him to be more contact-oriented and selective (risk of more TTO in that case, think Aaron Judge...lots of pitches means more BB and more K), presuming his natural power will lead to good outcomes when he does make contact. That’ll lead to solid BAs (LD and HR) and probably a fair share of walks as pitchers don’t want to get smoked in the zone, but he’s a guy with so much raw power that he has some to spare, so to say, to make better contact. Duran I think is sorta the opposite...his present hit tool was obviously more polished and they liked his contact ability, but they intend to modify his approach (and swing path maybe) to get away from the grounder-heavy Long Beach philosophy. My guess there is that they figure he can elevate the ball, converting raw to game power, and that strength and conditioning will turn some gap power into HR power. They may also have seen even his raw power as being under-assessed due to hitting style. He’s a guy who can probably sell out for power a bit but actually see his BA improve, because of the LD vs GB thing, if it comes with an elevated launch angle. Look again at Tzu-Wei Lin: he was routinely a .220 hitter who made great contact. He changed his swing, and viola!—his K rate shot up, but he still drew walks and he became a .300 hitter (in the minors, at least). Duran isn’t a small guy like Lin, he’s 6’2” and 200 lbs. And, he’s twitchy. Eric Davis was 6’3” and like 190, but he was ultra fast-twitchy and he hit lots of HR. Not saying Duran will, but that’s his body type. My feeling is that both of those guys are fair bets to exceed those hit tool projections, they could be closer to 60s. Decker’s sort of in-between; I’m not as high on him as some, because I’m not quite as sold on his 50 hit tool projection, but I think he offers a balance between both Casas and Duran. I guess he’s not “exciting” because he doesn’t have another standout tool; Casas has the huge power and plus arm, Duran the blazing speed and projectable CF defense. Decker’s...sort of a Beni lite...a guy with average or slightly better tools across the board, Decker doesn’t have the 70 hit tool (cuz if he had that, he’d have gone top-10, obviously). Again, my guess is that they think he’s got some projectability in the hit tool, beyond what the general scouting consensus is. Or maybe they’re a little high on his power (although tbh, it’s not a commodity these days the way it was in the ‘80s-90s or even the oughts). But even a 50 hit tool is acceptable for COF if the player has plus power, particularly if that player can draw walks or field his position reasonably well. “Average” is relative, really, but I generally feel good about guys projected for average hit tools. I love the plus ones, but there’s something to be said for having no particular weakness. I think Decker has a good shot at being, idk, Jay Bruce? Not a star, but a good player who helps the team a lot early in his career by being essentially league-average or occasionally better, at what amounts to negligible cost. If they get 2-3 wins a year and maybe a career year at 4.5 WAR during his first six years, that’s tremendous value. So overall, I think they did well to ID some players who they COULD draft (and that’s without discussing Kottam and Granberg, both of who are projectable as hitters, from a coaching/development standpoint) who offer clear paths to improving their hit tools. Picking where they did in the draft, they weren’t going to get future 65-70 hit guys with any other remotely useful skills. So, they focused on guys with other skills that give them value, and solid but not great hit tools which the Sox think are amenable to development. I’m very confident right now in their overall organizational hitting philosophy, and I’m particularly confident in their abilities to identify “future” hitters, and in particular, those whose potential is maybe underrated by other clubs. God you are good haha. I missed that you had replied back in February. As of now Duran is still looking like the steal of the century. Im excited to see Decker finally play some as well, but we have to wait. Im not so sold on him either. We will have a whole new crop of prospects to look into as of today! I am excited to see how the sox follow up their very good 18 draft. Lugo could be a gem if we can manage to sign him.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 4, 2019 1:12:22 GMT -5
Imo, Lugo is a coup and Cannon is underrated. I like this draft already.
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