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Devers, Dalbec, and friends: 3B in MLB
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 13, 2019 0:02:04 GMT -5
Theo used to exaggerate saying give me 9 shortstops and I'll find a place for all of them to play.
DD should exaggerate saying give me 9 3rd basemen who can crush the ball and I'll find a place for them to play.
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Post by telson13 on May 13, 2019 1:31:55 GMT -5
Isn't there a outcome where you see all 3 of Dalbec, Devers, and Chavis stay and play for minimum slaries in 2020 or 2021? To me, it's possible. Chavis seems like a future DH and part time position player, especially with his durability issues. Devers is a shaky defender even before he's filling out. He's not very good at the glove to ball in his hand transfer (which is why he was working with Pedrioa a lot last year, who is one of the best I have ever seen do it). His footwork also leads to a lot sloppy throws. Maybe all of this is correctable and we could see him get better at all of this in time, but by the the time he does all of this, he'll be 20-25 pounds heavier. It could make a lot of sense to eliminate all of his throwing issues by giving him a first base glove. His big body is almost a perfect target to throw to. Dalbec to me is a wildcard, but if he's bringing the defense and legitimate power, he could be a 1-2 win player just with those two aspects being the main or only part of his game. If this outcome were to play out, then you're probably losing JD Martinez, but I'm okay with that considering you have a lot of money to dish out to a lot of other of the inhouse free agents to be. It’s certainly possible. Obviously it’s easier now with Chavis looking like a 2b option in addition to possible COF and obviously, DH. Devers is on fire, and his fielding *is* improving; as the hitting gets better I expect comfort and experience (and not pressing to stay in MLB while hitting .240) will start eliminating the mental errors, and he can focus more energy on defensive improvement. I think for Dalbec, he’s gonna need to push Rafi to 1b. I’m not sure he just goes to 1b, since it lowers his value. He might become trade bait. I will say, I’ve had such reservations about his hit tool that, while I love the upside Dream, Chris is right...his outcome curve is super wide. I think it also skews low. BUT, i was just looking at his year on fangraphs and i was *very* pleasantly surprised. Last year on promotion to AA he still showed power, but the peripherals were *much* worse than in Salem. He’d always carried an IsoD in the .100+ range, (BB rates over 10%, sometimes closer to 15%), but it plummeted to 4% in Portland. The whiffs were always a problem but after going from 37% in Greenville to 31% in Salem, at Portland he was back up to 37%. That’s just unplayable. Well, in repeating at Portland, Dalbec’s now showing a career-high walk rate (17.7%, good for an astounding 0.143 IsoD), yet has essentially the same IsoP (.252 last year, .248 this year), AND he’s cut his whiff rate to just 25.8%. He dropped 12% from his whiff rate while quadrupling his walk rate and showing no loss in power. His wRC+ is an excellent 155. So I underrated him on my “updated top 10” because I wasn’t following too closely. He has yet to get really hot, too (his 3-HR game could be the start). I can’t overstate how huge the change in peripherals is or how much more excited it has me. What’s more is that he’s not especially pull-heavy, and he’s actually had a dip in LD% (consistent with last year in AA), and a “meh” HR/FB rate. Looks like he’s just hitting more flies in general (more IFFB too). With the K rate where it is, any sort of extended hot stretch would suggest it’s AAA time. He’s very obviously adjusted to AA. I’d like to see more LD and not such a crazy FB skew, but tbh that might just be his bag, given the huge power. Once he’s in Pawtucket I’ll go see a game and see how he looks at 3b. But if he can just *approach* (125-135 wRC+) that batting line in MLB, that’s a valuable player (3 WAR) with even just average 3b defense. Plus to plus-plus defense and .250/.375/.525 and I imagine he moves Rafi. If he really shoves I could see them splitting time there and at 1b and DH, depending on how Rafi’s defense progresses. It’s a nice problem to have, for sure. I’m beginning to think we see a Dalbec in September, tho.
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Post by James Dunne on May 13, 2019 7:34:55 GMT -5
I started posting this in one of the Gameday threads but figured it fit better here:
I feel strongly that Bobby Dalbec will one day be an All-Star for the Oakland A's. Maybe he's traded at the deadline this year. Maybe he putters around a little bit and is the second or third piece in one of those "the Red Sox got someone good but gave up more than I'm comfortable with and we debate this for 15 years" deals. Maybe he flames out spectacularly and then all of a sudden shows up in 2026 with a 46 homer season. Maybe he also makes six All-Star teams for the Red Sox and then sorta flames out but has a Mike Piazza 2006 season for Oakland 12 years from now.
His highs being so high make it hard to get a read on him. Usually when a dude is mediocre for four months and then a monster for one they end up having decent but not great end-of-year numbers. Dalbec's monster month in 2018 was so unbelievable that he ended up being, without much question, the organization's minor league player of the year. I will say that the Red Sox approach at the major league level in 2018 of valuing high batting averages and avoiding strikeouts served them well, and that Dalbec doesn't obviously fit that. BUT I also hope the Red Sox don't get too clever and start to value players based on fitting a type rather than simply evaluating how good they are.
I just don't know. The Red Sox have never had a prospect who so much of his value came from his power but also had so much power.
It's also hard to evaluate because guys who are overwhelmingly Three-True-Outcome aren't my personal favorite aesthetically, but it's also dumb to deny their value. Like, Joey Gallo is a very good baseball player, even if that's not my favorite type of thing. I'd rather watch a Jarren Duran type spread the ball to all fields and challenge defenses than someone with a wait-until-the-perfect-pitch approach, even with two strikes, and then swing as hard as he can hitting .185 for a month and then six homers in a week. But that doesn't mean Duran's style makes him a better prospect. This isn't something like music that's 100% subjective. You can enjoy something less but acknowledge that it's better.
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Post by telson13 on May 13, 2019 10:42:15 GMT -5
Well, in repeating at Portland, Dalbec’s now showing a career-high walk rate (17.7%, good for an astounding 0.143 IsoD), yet has essentially the same IsoP (.252 last year, .248 this year), AND he’s cut his whiff rate to just 25.8%. He dropped 12% from his whiff rate while quadrupling his walk rate and showing no loss in power. His wRC+ is an excellent 155. So I underrated him on my “updated top 10” because I wasn’t following too closely. He has yet to get really hot, too (his 3-HR game could be the start). I can’t overstate how huge the change in peripherals is or how much more excited it has me. What’s more is that he’s not especially pull-heavy, and he’s actually had a dip in LD% (consistent with last year in AA), and a “meh” HR/FB rate. Looks like he’s just hitting more flies in general (more IFFB too). With the K rate where it is, any sort of extended hot stretch would suggest it’s AAA time. He’s very obviously adjusted to AA. I’d like to see more LD and not such a crazy FB skew, but tbh that might just be his bag, given the huge power. Once he’s in Pawtucket I’ll go see a game and see how he looks at 3b. But if he can just *approach* (125-135 wRC+) that batting line in MLB, that’s a valuable player (3 WAR) with even just average 3b defense. Plus to plus-plus defense and .250/.375/.525 and I imagine he moves Rafi. If he really shoves I could see them splitting time there and at 1b and DH, depending on how Rafi’s defense progresses. It’s a nice problem to have, for sure. I’m beginning to think we see a Dalbec in September, tho. The progress is the fun part, he's trending in the right direction so it feels more reasonable to dream on his upside. Exactly. It’s such a sea change at a traditionally difficult level that it’s really super encouraging. I’m probably at least twice as confident in him becoming an MLB regular as I was a few weeks ago. It’s probably raised my “reasonable ceiling” high point, too. It’s gonna be a lot of fun to see where he, Casas, Duran, and pitchers like Darwinzon and Mata end up this year. They’ve all shown inklings of exceeding their CW projections.
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Post by telson13 on May 13, 2019 11:16:56 GMT -5
I started posting this in one of the Gameday threads but figured it fit better here: I feel strongly that Bobby Dalbec will one day be an All-Star for the Oakland A's. Maybe he's traded at the deadline this year. Maybe he putters around a little bit and is the second or third piece in one of those "the Red Sox got someone good but gave up more than I'm comfortable with and we debate this for 15 years" deals. Maybe he flames out spectacularly and then all of a sudden shows up in 2026 with a 46 homer season. Maybe he also makes six All-Star teams for the Red Sox and then sorta flames out but has a Mike Piazza 2006 season for Oakland 12 years from now. His highs being so high make it hard to get a read on him. Usually when a dude is mediocre for four months and then a monster for one they end up having decent but not great end-of-year numbers. Dalbec's monster month in 2018 was so unbelievable that he ended up being, without much question, the organization's minor league player of the year. I will say that the Red Sox approach at the major league level in 2018 of valuing high batting averages and avoiding strikeouts served them well, and that Dalbec doesn't obviously fit that. BUT I also hope the Red Sox don't get too clever and start to value players based on fitting a type rather than simply evaluating how good they are. I just don't know. The Red Sox have never had a prospect who so much of his value came from his power but also had so much power. It's also hard to evaluate because guys who are overwhelmingly Three-True-Outcome aren't my personal favorite aesthetically, but it's also dumb to deny their value. Like, Joey Gallo is a very good baseball player, even if that's not my favorite type of thing. I'd rather watch a Jarren Duran type spread the ball to all fields and challenge defenses than someone with a wait-until-the-perfect-pitch approach, even with two strikes, and then swing as hard as he can hitting .185 for a month and then six homers in a week. But that doesn't mean Duran's style makes him a better prospect. This isn't something like music that's 100% subjective. You can enjoy something less but acknowledge that it's better. Really well-put, James. I feel pretty much the same way. Aesthetically, I just don’t find hitters like Khris Davis, Rob Deer, Adam Dunn, et al very compelling. And Gallo is a great comp too, especially since Dalbec seems to be concentrating on elevating versus, say, Chavis who seems to be focused on hard contact/LD but whose natural swing produces loft. For me, I put a huge emphasis on hit tool *objectively* because it has a huge role in narrowing outcome curves and reducing “risk.” Guys like Dalbec can end up being monumental disappointments. I’ll never forget the let-down of Jason Place. But it’s also true that, at the higher ends of their curves, they become very dangerous hitters. Throw in plus defense, and you’ve got Craig Nettles or Mike Schmidt. With the extreme TTO hitters, there are stretches of minimal production that, over the course of the season, create uncertainty in the team’s performance...too many guys like that, and the team can have awful run-scoring slumps where they’re losing 1-0, 3-2 games, and it’s all the more infuriating because a HR would tie or win it. Those close losses are excruciating. And then you get a stretch of 14-1, 12-3 wins and you’re thinking “jeez, can’t you save a few runs for later?” And those slugfest wins aren’t really so satisfyingly dramatic to watch. Of course, the good defense is a lot more consistent, which is why I *do* enjoy watching players like Matt Chapman. In the end, you’re right in that value needs to be separated from the subjective, both for us debating here, and for MLB FOs, obviously.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 13, 2019 12:40:07 GMT -5
I started posting this in one of the Gameday threads but figured it fit better here: I feel strongly that Bobby Dalbec will one day be an All-Star for the Oakland A's. Maybe he's traded at the deadline this year. Maybe he putters around a little bit and is the second or third piece in one of those "the Red Sox got someone good but gave up more than I'm comfortable with and we debate this for 15 years" deals. Maybe he flames out spectacularly and then all of a sudden shows up in 2026 with a 46 homer season. Maybe he also makes six All-Star teams for the Red Sox and then sorta flames out but has a Mike Piazza 2006 season for Oakland 12 years from now. His highs being so high make it hard to get a read on him. Usually when a dude is mediocre for four months and then a monster for one they end up having decent but not great end-of-year numbers. Dalbec's monster month in 2018 was so unbelievable that he ended up being, without much question, the organization's minor league player of the year. I will say that the Red Sox approach at the major league level in 2018 of valuing high batting averages and avoiding strikeouts served them well, and that Dalbec doesn't obviously fit that. BUT I also hope the Red Sox don't get too clever and start to value players based on fitting a type rather than simply evaluating how good they are. I just don't know. The Red Sox have never had a prospect who so much of his value came from his power but also had so much power. It's also hard to evaluate because guys who are overwhelmingly Three-True-Outcome aren't my personal favorite aesthetically, but it's also dumb to deny their value. Like, Joey Gallo is a very good baseball player, even if that's not my favorite type of thing. I'd rather watch a Jarren Duran type spread the ball to all fields and challenge defenses than someone with a wait-until-the-perfect-pitch approach, even with two strikes, and then swing as hard as he can hitting .185 for a month and then six homers in a week. But that doesn't mean Duran's style makes him a better prospect. This isn't something like music that's 100% subjective. You can enjoy something less but acknowledge that it's better. Really well-put, James. I feel pretty much the same way. Aesthetically, I just don’t find hitters like Khris Davis, Rob Deer, Adam Dunn, et al very compelling. And Gallo is a great comp too, especially since Dalbec seems to be concentrating on elevating versus, say, Chavis who seems to be focused on hard contact/LD but whose natural swing produces loft. For me, I put a huge emphasis on hit tool *objectively* because it has a huge role in narrowing outcome curves and reducing “risk.” Guys like Dalbec can end up being monumental disappointments. I’ll never forget the let-down of Jason Place. But it’s also true that, at the higher ends of their curves, they become very dangerous hitters. Throw in plus defense, and you’ve got Craig Nettles or Mike Schmidt. With the extreme TTO hitters, there are stretches of minimal production that, over the course of the season, create uncertainty in the team’s performance...too many guys like that, and the team can have awful run-scoring slumps where they’re losing 1-0, 3-2 games, and it’s all the more infuriating because a HR would tie or win it. Those close losses are excruciating. And then you get a stretch of 14-1, 12-3 wins and you’re thinking “jeez, can’t you save a few runs for later?” And those slugfest wins aren’t really so satisfyingly dramatic to watch. Of course, the good defense is a lot more consistent, which is why I *do* enjoy watching players like Matt Chapman. In the end, you’re right in that value needs to be separated from the subjective, both for us debating here, and for MLB FOs, obviously. Like you, I don't find the three true outcome types quite as compelling as I used to. I think that balance is key. It seemed like a ton of lineups were totally populated by guys hitting .225 with 25 homers and a ton of Ks. The Red Sox bucked that trend with guys who regularly made contact and made the other defenses work and could score in other ways than waiting for the HR after a walk or two. Those two out hits they had were demoralizing killers, and when you have teams that can't string hits together you probably are more likely to be prone to those boom or bust games where the HRs are flying out and you're lighting up the scoreboard or you're losing by that 1 run because you just can't get that key hit because hitting a measly single is harder to do than you'd think. I think variety is a good way to go. In a lineup where there are guys who hit for contact, a 3 true outcomes guy like Dalbec if he can control his Ks with in reason, is a good fit, but if they were all like Dalbec or if you have a good contact team who can only slap the ball, you're still missing a key element, so I definitely prefer a nice combo of the the different skill sets, because when you have an offense that has multiple ways to score, whether it's pecking the pitcher to death, stealing or bunting when need be or being able to go deep, it just gives you that many more options. Honestly, I think, looking back, that's a part of what killed the Yankees last year. They had nobody who could really hit singles when they needed them. It was all HR or nothing.
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Post by mandelbro on May 13, 2019 12:59:28 GMT -5
I started posting this in one of the Gameday threads but figured it fit better here: I feel strongly that Bobby Dalbec will one day be an All-Star for the Oakland A's. Maybe he's traded at the deadline this year. Maybe he putters around a little bit and is the second or third piece in one of those "the Red Sox got someone good but gave up more than I'm comfortable with and we debate this for 15 years" deals. Maybe he flames out spectacularly and then all of a sudden shows up in 2026 with a 46 homer season. Maybe he also makes six All-Star teams for the Red Sox and then sorta flames out but has a Mike Piazza 2006 season for Oakland 12 years from now. His highs being so high make it hard to get a read on him. Usually when a dude is mediocre for four months and then a monster for one they end up having decent but not great end-of-year numbers. Dalbec's monster month in 2018 was so unbelievable that he ended up being, without much question, the organization's minor league player of the year. I will say that the Red Sox approach at the major league level in 2018 of valuing high batting averages and avoiding strikeouts served them well, and that Dalbec doesn't obviously fit that. BUT I also hope the Red Sox don't get too clever and start to value players based on fitting a type rather than simply evaluating how good they are. I just don't know. The Red Sox have never had a prospect who so much of his value came from his power but also had so much power. It's also hard to evaluate because guys who are overwhelmingly Three-True-Outcome aren't my personal favorite aesthetically, but it's also dumb to deny their value. Like, Joey Gallo is a very good baseball player, even if that's not my favorite type of thing. I'd rather watch a Jarren Duran type spread the ball to all fields and challenge defenses than someone with a wait-until-the-perfect-pitch approach, even with two strikes, and then swing as hard as he can hitting .185 for a month and then six homers in a week. But that doesn't mean Duran's style makes him a better prospect. This isn't something like music that's 100% subjective. You can enjoy something less but acknowledge that it's better. Really well-put, James. I feel pretty much the same way. Aesthetically, I just don’t find hitters like Khris Davis, Rob Deer, Adam Dunn, et al very compelling. And Gallo is a great comp too, especially since Dalbec seems to be concentrating on elevating versus, say, Chavis who seems to be focused on hard contact/LD but whose natural swing produces loft. For me, I put a huge emphasis on hit tool *objectively* because it has a huge role in narrowing outcome curves and reducing “risk.” Guys like Dalbec can end up being monumental disappointments. I’ll never forget the let-down of Jason Place. But it’s also true that, at the higher ends of their curves, they become very dangerous hitters. Throw in plus defense, and you’ve got Craig Nettles or Mike Schmidt. With the extreme TTO hitters, there are stretches of minimal production that, over the course of the season, create uncertainty in the team’s performance...too many guys like that, and the team can have awful run-scoring slumps where they’re losing 1-0, 3-2 games, and it’s all the more infuriating because a HR would tie or win it. Those close losses are excruciating. And then you get a stretch of 14-1, 12-3 wins and you’re thinking “jeez, can’t you save a few runs for later?” And those slugfest wins aren’t really so satisfyingly dramatic to watch. Of course, the good defense is a lot more consistent, which is why I *do* enjoy watching players like Matt Chapman. In the end, you’re right in that value needs to be separated from the subjective, both for us debating here, and for MLB FOs, obviously. Are we sure this isn't a question of value, though? I have an (admittedly unresearched) opinion that if you give me a hit-over-power guy and a power-over-hit guy, with the same wRC+ over the season, I'd rather have the hit-over-power one in the postseason. I feel like the guys with long swings who don't recognize pitches as well, are the ones whose game translates worse when there's increased pressure, preparation, bullpen micromanagement, etc. All else equal, give me the hitter without a hole in his swing over the hitter with one. Beyond that, I also think teams (especially the Dodgers and Brewers) are trending towards using positioning to get outs, and hiding bats in the field where they might not have been able to play otherwise. In the postseason we burned the Dodgers in particular defensively, because we hit to all fields and put the ball in play, and it made them uncomfortable. I think we're well positioned with guys like Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and JD, to keep doing that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 13, 2019 13:38:21 GMT -5
Really well-put, James. I feel pretty much the same way. Aesthetically, I just don’t find hitters like Khris Davis, Rob Deer, Adam Dunn, et al very compelling. And Gallo is a great comp too, especially since Dalbec seems to be concentrating on elevating versus, say, Chavis who seems to be focused on hard contact/LD but whose natural swing produces loft. For me, I put a huge emphasis on hit tool *objectively* because it has a huge role in narrowing outcome curves and reducing “risk.” Guys like Dalbec can end up being monumental disappointments. I’ll never forget the let-down of Jason Place. But it’s also true that, at the higher ends of their curves, they become very dangerous hitters. Throw in plus defense, and you’ve got Craig Nettles or Mike Schmidt. With the extreme TTO hitters, there are stretches of minimal production that, over the course of the season, create uncertainty in the team’s performance...too many guys like that, and the team can have awful run-scoring slumps where they’re losing 1-0, 3-2 games, and it’s all the more infuriating because a HR would tie or win it. Those close losses are excruciating. And then you get a stretch of 14-1, 12-3 wins and you’re thinking “jeez, can’t you save a few runs for later?” And those slugfest wins aren’t really so satisfyingly dramatic to watch. Of course, the good defense is a lot more consistent, which is why I *do* enjoy watching players like Matt Chapman. In the end, you’re right in that value needs to be separated from the subjective, both for us debating here, and for MLB FOs, obviously. Are we sure this isn't a question of value, though? I have an (admittedly unresearched) opinion that if you give me a hit-over-power guy and a power-over-hit guy, with the same wRC+ over the season, I'd rather have the hit-over-power one in the postseason. I feel like the guys with long swings who don't recognize pitches as well, are the ones whose game translates worse when there's increased pressure, preparation, bullpen micromanagement, etc. All else equal, give me the hitter without a hole in his swing over the hitter with one. Beyond that, I also think teams (especially the Dodgers and Brewers) are trending towards using positioning to get outs, and hiding bats in the field where they might not have been able to play otherwise. In the postseason we burned the Dodgers in particular defensively, because we hit to all fields and put the ball in play, and it made them uncomfortable. I think we're well positioned with guys like Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and JD, to keep doing that. In the post-season you're simply facing better pitchers, which means the ability to destroy mistakes becomes less valuable while the ability to hit good pitches solidly becomes more valuable.
Splits by opposing quality are absolutely real and, BTW, don't necessarily reduce to hit tool versus power tool, as two poster children for the reality, I think, are David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez. (Jeter vs. A-Rod probably does follow the above -- Vince Gennaro of SABR verified Jeter's ability to hit good pitching).
A contemporary poster kid: Kris Bryant has a career .241 / .308 / .434 in 159 postseason PA, and is also -3.9 wins of "Clutch" in the regular season per FG's inexact number. The latter comes from not being able to hit closers.
Right now, Devers looks like he could get a hit off of God, assuming He doesn't pitch around him.
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Post by James Dunne on May 13, 2019 13:49:24 GMT -5
A contemporary poster kid: Kris Bryant has a career .241 / .308 / .434 in 159 postseason PA, and is also -3.9 wins of "Clutch" in the regular season per FG's inexact number. The latter comes from not being able to hit closers. It's hard to look at Bryant, though, and not separate out that 2016 playoffs. He was outstanding that year, particularly during the comeback against the Indians. He's been bad and unclutch in general in the playoffs, but the opposite at the MOST clutch time.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 13, 2019 14:38:56 GMT -5
Devers is leading the AL in batting average and is 4th in OB%.
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Post by mandelbro on May 14, 2019 10:15:17 GMT -5
Are we sure this isn't a question of value, though? I have an (admittedly unresearched) opinion that if you give me a hit-over-power guy and a power-over-hit guy, with the same wRC+ over the season, I'd rather have the hit-over-power one in the postseason. I feel like the guys with long swings who don't recognize pitches as well, are the ones whose game translates worse when there's increased pressure, preparation, bullpen micromanagement, etc. All else equal, give me the hitter without a hole in his swing over the hitter with one. Beyond that, I also think teams (especially the Dodgers and Brewers) are trending towards using positioning to get outs, and hiding bats in the field where they might not have been able to play otherwise. In the postseason we burned the Dodgers in particular defensively, because we hit to all fields and put the ball in play, and it made them uncomfortable. I think we're well positioned with guys like Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and JD, to keep doing that. In the post-season you're simply facing better pitchers, which means the ability to destroy mistakes becomes less valuable while the ability to hit good pitches solidly becomes more valuable.
Splits by opposing quality are absolutely real and, BTW, don't necessarily reduce to hit tool versus power tool, as two poster children for the reality, I think, are David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez. (Jeter vs. A-Rod probably does follow the above -- Vince Gennaro of SABR verified Jeter's ability to hit good pitching). A contemporary poster kid: Kris Bryant has a career .241 / .308 / .434 in 159 postseason PA, and is also -3.9 wins of "Clutch" in the regular season per FG's inexact number. The latter comes from not being able to hit closers. Right now, Devers looks like he could get a hit off of God, assuming He doesn't pitch around him.
Thanks for the response! This is what I was getting at. I'm not trying to say that players of one kind are more "clutch" than others because of their intangibles. But that playoff pitching as a whole is measurably better, and less mistake prone. So players whose style of hitting is more predicated on crushing a mistake will suffer. Khris Davis, Joey Gallo, Chris Davis (when he was still feared)... these guys are mistake hitters to me. You need to win in the regular season before you can win in the playoffs, so they have their place. But I want hitters who can cover the plate and hit to all fields.
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Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2019 8:02:17 GMT -5
Rafael Devers' breakout is some NSFW stuff. | 2018 | 2019 | K rate | 24.69% | 14.44% | BB rate | 7.76% | 10.56% | LD | 15.2% | 25.6% | IFFB | 15.7% | 11.8% |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 22, 2019 16:53:10 GMT -5
Devers' season by Launch Angle divides into 4 really distinct chunks. This is simply the percentage of balls with a Launch Angle below 0. Dates Con GB% 3/28 - 4/19 56 .500 4/20 - 5/11 66 .242 5/12 - 5/18 17 .529 5/19 - 5/21 11 .182 So the next thing I looked at is percentage of balls with a launch angle between 20 and 35, where the home runs happen. We'll call that SS% for sweet spot.
And let's also add HH%, percentage of balls with an EV of 95+, and XH%, percentage with 103+, which are harder than his average hard ball.
Dates Con GB% SS% HH% XH% 3/28 - 4/19 56 .500 .107 .464 .196 4/20 - 5/11 66 .242 .167 .561 .258 5/12 - 5/18 17 .529 .235 .471 .235 5/19 - 5/21 11 .182 .273 .545 .364 You can see that the HH and especially the XH follow the GB. When his swing is missed up he hits half his balls downward, and less hard.
The steady rise in the percentage of balls hit with a homer-friendly angle is a surprise.
The data seems to show how adjustments follow each other, and interact. This could be SSS noise, but it's really interesting.
You may remember that he started out scorching the ball but not lifting it. He had a .714 HH and .357 XH in the first four games.
Then he went ice-cold, 9 games with .321 / .071.
On 4/13 the hard contact comes back, .500 and .286 through the 19th. But he's still hitting grounders.
He stops hitting them on the 20th, but in his first three games with that problem fixed, he has 2 hard-hit balls out of 9, at 101 and 102. But he's .614 and .298 the rest of the way in that phase.
In a similar way, he had nothing hard hit three games ago, but he also had nothing with a LA below 0, whereas in all six games of his skid he had at least one ball at -19 or below. If I'd been following this, would I have predicted a breakout? Not sure.
His EV's the last two games are 114, 114, 110, 108, 99, 97, 83, 64.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 25, 2019 6:19:30 GMT -5
Since April 15, Devers ranks 14th in MLB in xwOBA, out of 193 players with 100+ PA.
He ranks 6th on the road, and 2nd (after Springer) on the road vs. RHP.
The pattern of his 4-way breakdown is consistent with his career (number in brackets, then difference), with his gains also matching the pattern.
.502 (56 PA) Away, RHP [.349] = .109
.393 (57 PA) Home, RHP [.320] = .073
.382 (16 PA) Home, LHP [.305] = .077
.318 (20 PA) Away, LHP [.274] = .044
Miley has a big platoon split; giving him yesterday off was a no-brainer.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 26, 2019 23:28:45 GMT -5
This is an incredibly exciting little study of what Devers has done since he changed his stance on April 15. There has to be a correlation between plate discipline and hitting the ball really hard very often, correct? And in fact, there is. The more you swing and miss, the more you tend to hit the ball very hard. Z-Contact and O-Contact explain 29% of Very Hard Hit% (balls 101+; see below if you care), and it's very easy to adjust for that.
The average hitter (see below again) last year had a VHH% of .184. But based on how much he swung and missed, you'd expect Joey Gallo to put up a .299, which makes his second-best .396 considerably less impressive. In contrast, you'd expect the Angels' David Fletcher to put up just .094, which makes his third-worst .020 not nearly as awful.
So it's easy to adjust the VHH% for Z-Contact and O-Contact. Adjusted, Gallo ranks 24th and Fletcher 210th.
What this adjustment does is give accurate extra credit to the guys who can hit the ball really hard really often while making contact consistently, while putting an accurate penalty on the guys who achieve the same results by swinging and missing more often that most.
Let's start with the top 10% last year, which is to say the top 24 players. Name VHH% Adj Robinson Cano .309 .348 Mike Trout .305 .326 Jose Abreu .321 .325 Christi. Yelich .336 .320 Ryan Braun .310 .315 Anthony Rendon .240 .312 Manny Machado .304 .311 David Peralta .313 .310 Nelson Cruz .378 .307 Matt Chapman .323 .307 J.D. Martinez .349 .303 Matt Olson .322 .303 Marcell Ozuna .305 .295 Mark Trumbo .331 .294 Aaron Judge .398 .290 Gianca. Stanton .368 .290 Francis. Lindor .239 .290 Jose Martinez .279 .289 DJ LeMahieu .236 .288 Daniel Palka .383 .288 Pa. Goldschmidt .298 .286 Mookie Betts .258 .286 Rafael Devers .302 .282 Joey Gallo .396 .278 Hold it, what's Rafael Devers with his 90 wRC+ doing in 23rd place as the guy who hit the ball really hard most often, given how often he made contact?
You might want to guess now what Devers has done since April 15 (excluding today's game).
The actually interesting geekage stuff.
95 mph+ for hard hit balls is not just arbitrary, it's wrong. There were more balls hit last year at 95 than 94 (rounding down), and more hit at 96 than 95. There were roughly as many balls hit at 96, 97, 98, and 99 as each other, and that's clearly the sweet spot you would define as hard contact. There were 1.5% fewer balls hit at 100 then in this range on average, which isn't significant, so we can add it to the group. But there were 6% fewer balls at 101 then in the 96 - 100 sweet spot, and 7% fewer at 102 than at 101. It really starts to drop off at 104, but the sample size is also shrinking.
101+% correlates better with Contact% than 96+%, as expected.
The sample size is the 240 guys who made contact the most last year, 8 per team, and the minimum number of times made contact is 240. Furthermore, below that the correlation between contact and VHH% begins to weaken.
So, how good has Devers been since he changed his stance?
.357 raw, .365 adjusted.
5% better than last year's leader Robinson Cano, and 12% better than runner-up Mike Trout.
The thing is, it's looked like this, hasn't it?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 27, 2019 10:33:23 GMT -5
Best age-22 breakout seasons, oWAR (no previous season >=6.0). What they did previously in parentheses. 9.1 Bruce Harper 2015 (3.5, 3.3, 1.2. He hasn't topped 4.2 since.)
8.8 Dick Allen 1964 (rookie)
8.5 Eddie Collins 1909 (2.2 in 106 G)
8.0 Stan Musial 1943 (4.4). War-diminished competition.
7.7 Joe DiMaggio 1937 (3.7)
7.1 Cal Ripken, Jr. 1983 (4.1) 6.8 Tris Speaker 1910 (5.5) ?.? Rafael Devers 2019 (2.6 in 179 G)
Devers is technically on a pace for 6.4, but I'm guessing that on April 15 he was down near 0.0. If he continues as he's been going since then, he's headed for 8.0-ish. Edit: Devers had a 70 wRC+ after April 14 and is 163 with the new stance. If he keeps going like this (big if, admittedly), he'll end up at a tick above 150. So here's the list of 14 guys who topped 140 at age 22 after not having done it before, lively ball era (eliminating Eddie Collins, Jimmy Sheckard, Sherry Magee, Fred Snodgrass, and Ross Youngs; also Vern Stephen's 140 in 1943): Season Name wRC+ 2015 Bryce Harper 197 1964 Boog Powell 176 1941 Pete Reiser 166 1937 Joe DiMaggio 165 1964 Dick Allen 162 1955 Al Kaline 156 1981 Rick. Henderson 152 1978 Jack Clark 149 1983 Cal Ripken 146 1939 Charlie Keller 146 2005 Miguel Cabrera 146 2009 Pablo Sandoval 146 1970 Johnny Bench 144 2005 David Wright 142
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Post by GyIantosca on May 28, 2019 5:42:00 GMT -5
So happy for Devers. I finally got aggravated in the White Sox game when the ball popped out of his glove and Brasier blew it. But after that he has been rolling . I believe he is the type to hit like 6 HR’s in 3 games. Get them fast. He will be anchoring that lineup soon.
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Post by kevfc89 on Jun 3, 2019 17:24:53 GMT -5
so, everyone who's been watching every game has noticed that Devers hasn't just been good, he's looked great defensively for a month now. He's making the easy plays and the hard plays, and the errors have stopped. But it wasn't really reflecting in fangraphs defensive ratings. Well, it looks like fangraphs finally had a defensive stats update, because he went from -1.7 defensive WAR before today to now -0.2 after this Monday update. everything is coming together, just gotta keep this up. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17350&position=3B
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 4, 2019 6:26:54 GMT -5
So, I was so eager to devise that metric for consistent very hard hit balls that I knowingly didn't test for some better regression models. It turns out that there was one that was unquestionably better -- slightly higher R and slightly more significant. Devers fares even better with the new model. (*)
His numbers before his latest slump were ridiculous. Even now, he's still great. Here's last year's top 25 plus Devers this year and since April 15.
Name VHH% Adj Devers > 4/15 .348 .355 Robinson Cano .309 .349 Devers 2019 .330 .347 Christ. Yelich .336 .334 Jose Abreu .321 .332 Mike Trout .305 .332 Matt Olson .322 .324 Ryan Braun .310 .322 Manny Machado .304 .319 David Peralta .313 .318 Matt Chapman .323 .314 Nelson Cruz .378 .307 J.D. Martinez .349 .306 Marcell Ozuna .305 .303 Anthony Rendon .240 .302 Pa. Goldschmidt .298 .299 Mark Trumbo .331 .299 Jose Martinez .279 .296 Mookie Betts .258 .292 Rafael Devers .302 .290 Francis. Lindor .239 .287 Yasiel Puig .294 .287 DJ LeMahieu .236 .286 Juan Soto .260 .280 Gianca. Stanton .368 .278 Trevor Story .293 .278 Xander Bogaerts .266 .276 Devers was 18th last year. At some point I'll run the actual 2019 leader board, but it's clear that the numbers very much support our eyeballs.
*The new model adds a third factor to O-Contact% and Z-Contact%, based on the difference between them. Technically, I'm replacing Z-Contact with its sqaure and ts interaction with O-Contact.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 4, 2019 10:15:28 GMT -5
So, I was so eager to devise that metric for consistent very hard hit balls that I knowingly didn't test for some better regression models. It turns out that there was one that was unquestionably better -- slightly higher R and slightly more significant. Devers fares even better with the new model. (*)
His numbers before his latest slump were ridiculous. Even now, he's still great. Here's last year's top 25 plus Devers this year and since April 15.
Name VHH% Adj Devers > 4/15 .348 .355 Robinson Cano .309 .349 Devers 2019 .330 .347 Christ. Yelich .336 .334 Jose Abreu .321 .332 Mike Trout .305 .332 Matt Olson .322 .324 Ryan Braun .310 .322 Manny Machado .304 .319 David Peralta .313 .318 Matt Chapman .323 .314 Nelson Cruz .378 .307 J.D. Martinez .349 .306 Marcell Ozuna .305 .303 Anthony Rendon .240 .302 Pa. Goldschmidt .298 .299 Mark Trumbo .331 .299 Jose Martinez .279 .296 Mookie Betts .258 .292 Rafael Devers .302 .290 Francis. Lindor .239 .287 Yasiel Puig .294 .287 DJ LeMahieu .236 .286 Juan Soto .260 .280 Gianca. Stanton .368 .278 Trevor Story .293 .278 Xander Bogaerts .266 .276 Devers was 18th last year. At some point I'll run the actual 2019 leader board, but it's clear that the numbers very much support our eyeballs.
*The new model adds a third factor to O-Contact% and Z-Contact%, based on the difference between them. Technically, I'm replacing Z-Contact with its sqaure and ts interaction with O-Contact.
Wow, Red Sox had 4 of the top 25 last year. And I'm a little surprised that Devers was one of them. How the heck did he have only a .281 BABIP?... Looks like the main difference from last season is that he's traded a fair number of fly balls for line drives. 2018: 15% LD/46% GB/39% FB 2019: 25/45/30 Though interestingly, since he hit his first home run on May 3rd, he's traded ground balls for fly balls while basically keeping the line drive rate the same: since 5/3/19: 25/38/37 So the net effect in the last month, relative to last season, is that he's turned a bunch of ground balls into line drives.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 5, 2019 12:06:56 GMT -5
Name VHH% Adj Devers fr. 4/15 .359 .366 Devers 2019 .339 .356 Robinson Cano .309 .349 Christ. Yelich .336 .334 Jose Abreu .321 .332 Mike Trout .305 .332
Updated after going 3 for 4 last night. I seem to have caught him at the end of a slump. One day after coming out of it, with his new stance he's 10% better than last year's runner-up.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 7, 2019 13:56:18 GMT -5
Couple of things to add to the Devers discussion, since he’s just so fun to talk about these days: For one, almost entirely because of his build, I think, he’s always been tabbed as “slow,” bordering on plodding. FG had him as a 40 current speed, 30 future. However, (and we’ve talked about this with Duran, Brannen, etc.) statcast makes a lie of that grade. When he made MLB, Devers had a max sprint of 28.0 fps, which is solid to *plus*. He’s lost some speed since then (I’m actually a bit surprised, since he’s slimmed down), but currently sits at 26.9 fps, dead average. baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/rafael-devers-646240?stats=career-r-hitting-mlb . His baserunning has improved as well (8 SB with a “positive” 78% success rate, and by eyeball fewer gaffes on batted balls). On top of that, he’s added 2 mph to his average EV, has his hard-hit over 50%, but his average LA is slightly lower (9.6*)...no need to go much further into that stuff given what Eric’s posted. It looks like that avg LA is going to come up some. But what’s interesting is that his barrel rate is actually *down* a little bit, from 9 to 8 to just under 8%. I’d imagine that that will come up some as he settles in following his stance change (and particularly, as the change in approach becomes more habitual, with more selective aggression). Rather, the big difference for him has really been the 30-35% drop in K rate. That’s not unheard of but it’s certainly unusual, and it’s extremely encouraging in light of his improvement in hard contact. He’s seen 10% fewer first strikes, the only “big” difference I could find for him. Rafi’s had a small increase in contact%, along with a small drop in SwStr rate (still relatively high at 11+%). Basically, it looks like he’s just being approached more cautiously, getting into better counts, and taking advantage. I really can’t find any one thing beyond the FStr% to explain the huge drop in K%. His O-Sw is still pretty high (37%), and that’s unchanged; the other (positive) changes in O/Z-contact are small (5%, 2%), and his overall swing rate is basically unchanged. I think there’s a huge opportunity for him to get even **better** by dramatically reducing his O-Sw, which would reduce his weak contact, might further drop the K rate a little bit, but should boost his walk rate too. Bogey is the poster boy for this sort of change...he went from mid-30s, incrementally down to 30% last year, then to 26.8% this year. It’s accompanied (driven?) his improved game power/increasing walk rate despite little change in “strength” (there’s a nice piece here: blogs.fangraphs.com/xander-bogaerts-is-selectively-aggressive/ ). It’s fascinating to watch Devers develop as a hitter, especially having seen X go through his own evolution recently. I think we’re going to see more walks as his power starts spiking with the warm weather and changes to his stance/LA profile. I think most of us would agree that he’s *looked* better than the numbers say, offensively. That seems to match up with Eric’s deep dive, and I think there’s a fair chance he continues to improve those numbers, as he really seems to be evolving pretty quickly. Lastly, his defensive improvement should not be underrated. He hasn’t made an error in a month, and the sort of mental errors/decision-making problems he had last year and at the start of this year are largely gone. He’s actually +2 DRS, and has basically a neutral UZR/150, which is a **marked** improvement from last year. And those numbers include the start of this year, when he was clearly still struggling defensively. I think anyone who’s watching him through May would agree that his defense is transformed. He’s making a higher percentage of routine plays, and making more difficult ones as well, including some very impressive charges. If the last month’s play is the new norm, I would expect a VERY different final tally at year’s end than what we see today. I think he’s ticketed for +5-10 DRS and a UZR/150 around 2 or 3. Come playoffs, he could be comfortably above-average in all facets of his game. That’s incredible for a 22-y/o who’s just reaching 1000 PA. The sky really is the limit for this kid.
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 17, 2019 13:28:11 GMT -5
Name VHH% Adj Devers fr. 4/15 .359 .366 Devers 2019 .339 .356 Robinson Cano .309 .349 Christ. Yelich .336 .334 Jose Abreu .321 .332 Mike Trout .305 .332
Updated after going 3 for 4 last night. I seem to have caught him at the end of a slump. One day after coming out of it, with his new stance he's 10% better than last year's runner-up. He's trended back upwards into silly territory again, mostly by making better contact with no drop in VHH%. The .002 decline since the last update on 6/5 in VHH% is a rounding necessity. Name VHH% Adj Devers fr. 4/15 .357 .374 Devers 2019 .341 .363 Robinson Cano .309 .349 Christ. Yelich .336 .334 Jose Abreu .321 .332 Mike Trout .305 .332 The .025 edge on Cano is the same as Cano's edge on #5 Matt Olson. The .040 edge on #2 Yelich is larger than Yelich's edge on #16 Jose Martinez.
At some point in early July I'll create a 2019 leaderboard.
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 17, 2019 13:52:58 GMT -5
Inside Edge fielding data is here, and it's impressive.
He's made 93.8% of his routine plays (90%-100%) for the second year in a row. That's a bit subpar, at least -2 plays and maybe more.
For the next buckets I'll give his chances, his actual plays made, his plays he would have made with no improvement over his previous two years, and the presumed MLB average.
Likely: 18 for 21, up from 14.4 (MLB average 15.8). So he's gone from -1.5 plays to +2.
Even: 5 for 8, up from 4.25 (MLB average, duh, 4). Basically 0 to +1. Unlikely: 3 for 8, up from 1.3 (MLB average 2). From -1 to +1. Remote: 0 for 14, no change (MLB average 0.7).
He hasn't yet made a remote (translation: ridiculous) play in his career and maybe he never will. Arenado makes 10% of those. But he's +3.5 plays on other than routine (a +6 improvement) in somewhat less than half a season, and certainly looks like a guy who can peak as a +10 defender.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 17, 2019 14:02:08 GMT -5
It will be interesting to contrast this improvement by Devers with Dalbec’s performance, as the latter is often referred to as a plus defender.
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