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Devers, Dalbec, and friends: 3B in MLB
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Post by soxin8 on Jun 19, 2019 11:43:03 GMT -5
MLB.com has Dalbec as their 9th rated 3rd base prospect. One of my favorite comments this year is when dirtdog said in the Texas series that Rafy was starting to look like Herman Munster when he tried out for the Dodgers.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 20, 2019 6:16:51 GMT -5
MLB.com has Dalbec as their 9th rated 3rd base prospect. One of my favorite comments this year is when dirtdog said in the Texas series that Rafy was starting to look like Herman Munster when he tried out for the Dodgers. Clearly you haven't been paying attention to Devers at all this year.
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Post by costpet on Jun 20, 2019 8:32:20 GMT -5
Dalbec is 6'4", medium BA, high power. That has 1b written all over it. Chavis is better than I expected at 2b. That's a pretty good infield. Outfield is best in baseball. Vasquez is now a force at the plate. That's a heck of a good team.
If the pitching gets a little better, I like our chances later on in the year.
PS. Wright is looking good in AAA. That would help.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 20, 2019 8:55:11 GMT -5
Dalbec is 6'4". Sounds like a 1b to me. Big power with average BA. You see that a lot in the ML. Chavis is only 5'10". I would give him reps this year in AAA in the outfield. Dalbec is 6'4", medium BA, high power. That has 1b written all over it. Chavis is better than I expected at 2b. That's a pretty good infield. Outfield is best in baseball. Vasquez is now a force at the plate. That's a heck of a good team. If the pitching gets a little better, I like our chances later on in the year. PS. Wright is looking good in AAA. That would help. Why do you keep trying to make the guy with the best arm in the system into a first baseman just because he is tall? You seem to be too worried about how players are shaped rather than what their skills are. A big part of Dalbec's value is that he's a good third baseman - he's going to struggle to hit for any kind of batting average (even with a much lower K rate he's hitting under .250 as a 24-year-old in Double-A), but at third base you can provide enough value with power and defense to still be extremely useful.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 20, 2019 8:59:17 GMT -5
Dalbec is 6'4". Sounds like a 1b to me. Big power with average BA. You see that a lot in the ML. Chavis is only 5'10". I would give him reps this year in AAA in the outfield. Dalbec is 6'4", medium BA, high power. That has 1b written all over it. Chavis is better than I expected at 2b. That's a pretty good infield. Outfield is best in baseball. Vasquez is now a force at the plate. That's a heck of a good team. If the pitching gets a little better, I like our chances later on in the year. PS. Wright is looking good in AAA. That would help. Why do you keep trying to make the guy with the best arm in the system into a first baseman just because he is tall? Probably because Rafael Devers has been practicing his Brooks Robinson impersonation lately and is raking and Dalbec is beginning to look like a potential keeper, so where else do you put him? Honestly, his value is best at 3b, too, but you can't have two 3b, not that Dombrowski doesn't know how to solve that "problem". Absent a trade, then come 2021 you can do: C: Vazquez 1B: Dalbec/Devers 2B: Chavis SS: Bogaerts 3B: Devers/Dalbec LF: Benintendi CF: Duran RF: Betts (I hope and pray) DH: Martinez (I hope, I hope) Or they could do this (though highly unlikely): C: Vazquez 1B: Chavis 2B: Duran SS: Bogaerts 3B: Devers LF: Benintendi CF: Betts (I hope and pray) RF: Dalbec (got the arm for right, but could he actually be mobile enough to handle Fenway? Tend to doubt it, but threw it out there - the Sox like to employee two CFs, 1 for CF and 1 for RF, which makes sense) DH: Martinez (I hope, I hope) More than likely Dombrowski either lets JDM go, which I hope he doesn't, opening up a DH spot for Chavis and the corners for Devers or Dalbec, or more likely I think Dombrowski deals Dalbec in a package in an effort to get a young starter who can take Porcello's spot in the rotation.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 20, 2019 9:00:26 GMT -5
Why do you keep trying to make the guy with the best arm in the system into a first baseman just because he is tall? Probably because Rafael Devers has been practicing his Brooks Robinson impersonation lately and is raking and Dalbec is beginning to look like a potential keeper, so where else do you put him?Honestly, his value is best at 3b, too, but you can't have two 3b, not that Dombrowski doesn't know how to solve that "problem". I mean, he's probably a year away from the majors, so my answer would be "at third base in Portland still." Just because he might never be Boston's third baseman doesn't mean that his value isn't maximized be keeping him at third base. And that doesn't mean I'm calling for them to trade him, either. Just that there's no reason at all to cut into the guy's value by trying to teach him a new, less valuable position while he's still trying to make contact that's of more consistent quality.
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Post by coachmac on Jun 20, 2019 9:04:25 GMT -5
To those of you who have seen Dalbec run, could he become a corner outfielder? The Sox outfield could undergo a dramatic rebuild in the next 2 years.In the past the Sox haven't moved players around much before AAA.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 20, 2019 9:12:01 GMT -5
Probably because Rafael Devers has been practicing his Brooks Robinson impersonation lately and is raking and Dalbec is beginning to look like a potential keeper, so where else do you put him?Honestly, his value is best at 3b, too, but you can't have two 3b, not that Dombrowski doesn't know how to solve that "problem". I mean, he's probably a year away from the majors, so my answer would be "at third base in Portland still." Just because he might never be Boston's third baseman doesn't mean that his value isn't maximized be keeping him at third base. And that doesn't mean I'm calling for them to trade him, either. Just that there's no reason at all to cut into the guy's value by trying to teach him a new, less valuable position while he's still trying to make contact that's of more consistent quality. While I was editing and adding on to my thought, I see this reply and I don't disagree, but at some point they will have to decide what they want to do with him if he keeps forcing the issue - which is a really good thing. Whether you move Devers off of 3b or Dalbec should that moment occur, either player loses a little value, although Devers definitely can carry the profile at 1b, but Devers has shown he has the capability of being a good 3b despite the growing pains. As far as "teaching" Dalbec to play 1b, that's something if it were ever determined to go that route, can be done in spring training. I mean Chavis had less to time to learn a skill position and has handled it fine, so yeah, Dalbec at Portland at Pawtucket is a 3b, and then wait and see if he's not dealt away. It's good that we're actually having this conversation. Yeah, the strikeouts concern, but he has shown improvement and his batting eye is really good and the power is massive. He could be a platoon guy who hits .180 with power and walks or I think he can be a .230 - .260 hitter (.260ish at his best) with an OPS that can reach into the mid .800s OPS. That's a highly useful player. And I'm going by gut here, but I believe Dalbec will reach the upper reaches of his potential. I'm bullish on him.
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Post by brendan98 on Jun 20, 2019 9:24:07 GMT -5
I like Dalbec a lot, but man he feels like future trade bait to me. Think it might end up being one the Sox end up regretting if so.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 20, 2019 10:28:52 GMT -5
Probably because Rafael Devers has been practicing his Brooks Robinson impersonation lately and is raking and Dalbec is beginning to look like a potential keeper, so where else do you put him?Honestly, his value is best at 3b, too, but you can't have two 3b, not that Dombrowski doesn't know how to solve that "problem". I mean, he's probably a year away from the majors, so my answer would be "at third base in Portland still." Just because he might never be Boston's third baseman doesn't mean that his value isn't maximized be keeping him at third base. And that doesn't mean I'm calling for them to trade him, either. Just that there's no reason at all to cut into the guy's value by trying to teach him a new, less valuable position while he's still trying to make contact that's of more consistent quality. I could see him getting a little bit of the Chavis treatment though, where they start trying him at first and maybe corner OF once he gets to Pawtucket.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 20, 2019 10:45:54 GMT -5
Devers has been good this year defensively, but everything I've read about Dalbec is that he's a plus defender with a cannon. Maybe Devers is the one who begins taking reps at first in the off season? Nice problem to have if Dalbec can hold that power and OBP up to the MLB level.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 20, 2019 11:14:08 GMT -5
Devers has been good this year defensively, but everything I've read about Dalbec is that he's a plus defender with a cannon. Maybe Devers is the one who begins taking reps at first in the off season? Nice problem to have if Dalbec can hold that power and OBP up to the MLB level. I wouldn't really call him a "plus" defender in the sense that he's a very good-to-great major league defender, like an Arenado or Chapman - maybe slightly better than Devers, average to slightly above. Which isn't a shot, the standard of being an average MLB starting third baseman is really high. Doesn't charge the ball quite as well as Devers and he's not quite as quick, but he has that great arm and he's really good at covering the line. His footwork is more sure on hard-hit balls as well, he doesn't get caught flat-footed or with his legs too close together like Devers does, which sometimes prevents Devers from getting down on the ball as well as he should. Comparatively quick release, with the added bonus that his arm strength gives him that extra split second so that he doesn't have to rush. He does have a slight tendency to overthrow. He's also a couple years older than Devers and with less offensive upside (which, I mean, basically everyone has less offensive upside than Devers), so I'd hesitate to mess around with Devers defensively. To coachmac above asked if I could see him playing the outfield: I'd wouldn't say he'd be an outstanding fit, but it's not crazy to think he gets time out there some day. The Red Sox won a World Series with Daniel Nava and Jonny Gomes in left, and another two with Manny Ramirez out there, so yes, by that standard Dalbec could definitely be an outfielder. He's not fast in terms of foot speed but he's athletic and coordinated enough, and the throws he'd unleash from out there would be some good stuff. I almost wonder if that ends up being a fallback plan if he doesn't make it, though. Like a much better version of Sam Travis, it's more like "okay, he didn't quite stick as a starter, let's make him a 4C guy." Only unlike Travis, Dalbec provides monster power off the bench and filling in as a starter. I mean, he's probably a year away from the majors, so my answer would be "at third base in Portland still." Just because he might never be Boston's third baseman doesn't mean that his value isn't maximized be keeping him at third base. And that doesn't mean I'm calling for them to trade him, either. Just that there's no reason at all to cut into the guy's value by trying to teach him a new, less valuable position while he's still trying to make contact that's of more consistent quality. I could see him getting a little bit of the Chavis treatment though, where they start trying him at first and maybe corner OF once he gets to Pawtucket. Sure, maybe next spring if he's forcing the issue. A major difference is that Chavis wasn't good at third base. Like, he wasn't just moved off the position to fit his bat somehwere, he was moved off because they needed to find him a position he was better at. He's already better at second base than he was at third. It's a tad frustrating that he spent those years at third when he could've been learning second, though that's 20/20 hindsight.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 20, 2019 11:44:50 GMT -5
Devers playing 3rd Base in 64 AA Games: 12 E Dalbec playing 3rd Base in 59 AA Games: 11 E So if you're basing your evaluation of Raffy's defense on fielding percentage like many old schoolers here do, I've got news for you. Our thicc magnificent son ain't moving from that hot corner especially after he signs his contract extension this winter.
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Post by soxin8 on Jun 20, 2019 12:15:33 GMT -5
MLB.com has Dalbec as their 9th rated 3rd base prospect. One of my favorite comments this year is when dirtdog said in the Texas series that Rafy was starting to look like Herman Munster when he tried out for the Dodgers. Clearly you haven't been paying attention to Devers at all this year. dirtdog posted that after a long homerun to dead center which is what Herman Munster was doing in his Dodger tryout. Not any comment about defense or agility.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 20, 2019 12:29:47 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 20, 2019 12:30:54 GMT -5
Clearly you haven't been paying attention to Devers at all this year. dirtdog posted that after a long homerun to dead center which is what Herman Munster was doing in his Dodger tryout. Not any comment about defense or agility. Oh crap I should've gotten that reference. My bad!! ----- On another note, Dalbec is already getting a little time at first base for versatility reasons (10 games, 7 starts this year compared to 59/56 at third). The point is that a big part of his value is tied to his potential defensive value at third, and planning to move forward with him (or Devers) at first is probably a suboptimal allocation of resources. That said, we'll see how it shakes out. It's very possible that is something that works in the short term. As for the outfield, I guess he'd probably be better than Frazier, but he's a big boy. Don't love that fit.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 20, 2019 12:48:22 GMT -5
Devers has been good this year defensively, but everything I've read about Dalbec is that he's a plus defender with a cannon. Maybe Devers is the one who begins taking reps at first in the off season? Nice problem to have if Dalbec can hold that power and OBP up to the MLB level. I wouldn't really call him a "plus" defender in the sense that he's a very good-to-great major league defender, like an Arenado or Chapman - maybe slightly better than Devers, average to slightly above. Which isn't a shot, the standard of being an average MLB starting third baseman is really high. Doesn't charge the ball quite as well as Devers and he's not quite as quick, but he has that great arm and he's really good at covering the line. His footwork is more sure on hard-hit balls as well, he doesn't get caught flat-footed or with his legs too close together like Devers does, which sometimes prevents Devers from getting down on the ball as well as he should. Comparatively quick release, with the added bonus that his arm strength gives him that extra split second so that he doesn't have to rush. He does have a slight tendency to overthrow. He's also a couple years older than Devers and with less offensive upside (which, I mean, basically everyone has less offensive upside than Devers), so I'd hesitate to mess around with Devers defensively... I almost wonder if that ends up being a fallback plan if he doesn't make it, though. Like a much better version of Sam Travis, it's more like "okay, he didn't quite stick as a starter, let's make him a 4C guy." Only unlike Travis, Dalbec provides monster power off the bench and filling in as a starter. The age comparison seems like a pretty important point! Especially given Devers' rapid improvement this season, why think that he's closer to his defensive ceiling than Dalbec is? It would seem insane to move Devers around in order to accommodate the very big question mark that Dalbec is. Personally I love the idea of having rovers on the bench. If he could come in as a bench player and slot into any of the corner positions, that seems like a great use of a roster spot - so much better than, say, the straight platoon of Pearce and Moreland. Just look at how valuable Holt has been in his time here; his flexibility smooths out the lineup wherever it's been needed, something that WAR (or any other stat I'm aware of) can't capture.
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Post by soxin8 on Jun 20, 2019 12:53:28 GMT -5
What did the scouts think of Bagwell's defense at third before Houston moved him in deference to Caminiti? Not that Dalbec will be the next Bagwell, but if he stays with Boston, maybe that is his future.
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Post by costpet on Jun 20, 2019 12:56:34 GMT -5
You never know. With that arm, he might end up in right field after Betts signs that $1/2 Billion contract with the Dodgers.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 20, 2019 13:17:28 GMT -5
Oh crap I should've gotten that reference. My bad!! ----- On another note, Dalbec is already getting a little time at first base for versatility reasons (10 games, 7 starts this year compared to 59/56 at third). The point is that a big part of his value is tied to his potential defensive value at third, and planning to move forward with him (or Devers) at first is probably a suboptimal allocation of resources. That said, we'll see how it shakes out. It's very possible that is something that works in the short term. As for the outfield, I guess he'd probably be better than Frazier, but he's a big boy. Don't love that fit. I get that it's sub optimal for the individuals, but from a team perspective does it really matter? Assume that they're equally talented at 3B and both are equally capable if moved to 1B. From a team perspective it doesn't matter at all which plays 3B or 1B, you get the same level of defense either way. The theory would be you could trade one for a better hitter to play first. Lineup gets better, defense doesn't suffer much.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 20, 2019 15:15:48 GMT -5
I get that it's sub optimal for the individuals, but from a team perspective does it really matter? Assume that they're equally talented at 3B and both are equally capable if moved to 1B. From a team perspective it doesn't matter at all which plays 3B or 1B, you get the same level of defense either way. The theory would be you could trade one for a better hitter to play first. Lineup gets better, defense doesn't suffer much. So Dalbec for Freddy Freeman? I'm down. (and yes, the hyperbole font is on)
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 21, 2019 1:31:03 GMT -5
Interesting that all of Devers, Dalbec, Chavis and Ockimey are suddenly doing better than expected in terms of being major leaguers; with Dalbec in AA the farthest away. Kids grow up so darn fast, don’t they!?!? What a boon for the Sox if each of these homegrown guys are on the 25-man in a year or so, bashing 120ish HR and 150 2B among them. Along with the B’s, that would be something.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 21, 2019 4:27:45 GMT -5
I like Dalbec a lot, but man he feels like future trade bait to me. Think it might end up being one the Sox end up regretting if so. That's my feeling as well if the Sox don't plan on utilizing him at third base. I have a feeling they're going to lean on Devers long term at third base long term because they want to make him happy. They'll probably live with his ups and downs as a defensive player to keep him here. I hope they trade Dalbec to a team that uses him at third base. What a waste if he can't use that arm at first base.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 21, 2019 14:28:57 GMT -5
I like Dalbec a lot, but man he feels like future trade bait to me. Think it might end up being one the Sox end up regretting if so. That's my feeling as well if the Sox don't plan on utilizing him at third base. I have a feeling they're going to lean on Devers long term at third base long term because they want to make him happy. They'll probably live with his ups and downs as a defensive player to keep him here. I hope they trade Dalbec to a team that uses him at third base. What a waste if he can't use that arm at first base. I see your point about that great arm. But would it be truly wasted if Devers keeps improving at 3B defense and the accuracy of his own cannon of an arm becomes the norm? Idk but these good arms are only part of the equation. A couple of days ago an announcer credited Chavis’ good defense at 1B to his mLB reps at 3B fielding grounders, initiating DP’s, picking bad hops, fielding pop-ups, etc. it makes sense. These reps at corner IF spots have much in common. Youk, Shaw, Chavis are three recent Sox examples of mastering the basics of both positions. Although 1B is not considered a defense first position, having a really good defender at 1B can significantly add to the team’s defense, saving runs and creating outs. MM is an example of that. Pearce’s yoga stretches during the post season are examples of that. We have no idea what the future holds for Devers, Dalbec, Chavis or Ockimey if they continue to improve. We do know that we will lose stalwarts MM and Pearce for 2020 and beyond, while any of Dalbec, Devers, Chavis, Ockimey might fill that spot. But having a good hitting, good fielding, strong armed, trim and athletic Devers at 3B throwing darts to a good hitting, good fielding, strong armed, tall Dalbec with outstanding reach at 1B may be the best use of skillsets. I know body types have been discussed a bit much here, but having a good defender at 1B with a big body and gorilla arms stretching for and picking balls from 2B, 3B, SS, C, P is a net positive. Also, Chavis at 1B has already started 3-4/5 DP’s and other heads up plays with his own strong arm. Imagine Dalbec doing this, and making rocket relays from Betts to Home, leaping and catching line drives, etc. This would create a significant advantage, probably greater than the difference between the cannons owned by both Dalbec and Devers, while not losing a step at 3B; or at 2B with Chavis. As someone said upthread, Dalbec, Chavis, Devers, Bogaerts is a good infield.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 3, 2019 16:18:00 GMT -5
Devers is now at .347 / .389 / .601 since he changed his stance on April 15. He is 6th in MLB in fWAR since then. Xander is 7th (but 4th on the season).
His 4-way xwOBA splits starting then are crazy.
.343 (103 PA) Home vs. RHP .442 (110 PA) Road vs. RHP
.441 (31 PA) Home vs. LHP .302 (41 PA) Road vs. LHP
DRS, UZR, and the SABR Defensive Index all have him as +0 on the season. That's almost certainly trending upwards as well.
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