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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Feb 24, 2019 20:42:07 GMT -5
Love seeing Chavis hit a HR to the opposite field. Does anyone know if he normally hits to all fields? You want him pulling the ball in Fenway if you're a RHB. What you want out of RHB in Fenway is a fly ball pull hitter when it is available, but also a LD hitter to the opposite field. Whereas for LHB you want a line drive pull hitter and a FB opposite field hitter. Jim Rice lost out on the HOF because he was a little too much of a LD pull hitter and FB opposite field hitter, though he was a terrific hitter overall.
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 24, 2019 21:22:16 GMT -5
If only he could recover his fastball. Since his injury, the FB is more like a "show me". Outstanding breaking ball tho. I think he is a fringe guy but there are 2 openings. We'd better hope we can pull out a rabbit or two. If not, this site will be 'hot' come June. Cautionary tale for the people who want everyone to get TJS immediately. Sometimes, the arm doesn't come all the way back. He was throwing 94 before his surgery. Dice K. nods his head...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 24, 2019 22:28:30 GMT -5
You want him pulling the ball in Fenway if you're a RHB. What you want out of RHB in Fenway is a fly ball pull hitter when it is available, but also a LD hitter to the opposite field. Whereas for LHB you want a line drive pull hitter and a FB opposite field hitter. Jim Rice lost out on the HOF because he was a little too much of a LD pull hitter and FB opposite field hitter, though he was a terrific hitter overall. Jim Rice didn't lose out on the HOF. He got voted into the HOF on his last year of eligibility, which was in 2009.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 24, 2019 23:39:27 GMT -5
What you want out of RHB in Fenway is a fly ball pull hitter when it is available, but also a LD hitter to the opposite field. Whereas for LHB you want a line drive pull hitter and a FB opposite field hitter. Jim Rice lost out on the HOF because he was a little too much of a LD pull hitter and FB opposite field hitter, though he was a terrific hitter overall. Jim Rice didn't lose out on the HOF. He got voted into the HOF on his last year of eligibility, which was in 2009. The point was that Rice didn't benefit from Fenway which I absolutely agree with. He would have hit more line drive HR in Yankee Stadium than he hit fly ball HR in Fenway.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 24, 2019 23:59:15 GMT -5
Check Encarnacion's stats in Fenway, dead pull groundball hitter, dead pull fly ball hitter. Pedrioa has also benefitted from being mostly a dead pull hitter most of his career at Fenway too. It's really okay to be a dead pull hitter in Fenway.
There are numerous good examples beyond these two also. Millar, Cody Ross, John Valentin.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 25, 2019 0:31:06 GMT -5
You want him pulling the ball in Fenway if you're a RHB. That leads to him only being pitched outside and a .200 batting average because of shifting if he's unable to go the other way. Yeah, there’s obviously value as a RH FB hitter to pull in Fenway, but it definitely needs to be semi-selective. If you look at big-time power hitters, when they get older and the bat slows a little bit, they start to lean on pulling the ball to keep their production up. It almost invariably leads to rolling over a bunch of stuff away, which results in GB and a crappy BABIP. They’re LHB, but the two most egregious examples I can think of lately are Ryan Howard and Chris Davis. Actually, Edwin Encarnacion is kinda interesting in that he *hasn’t* gone down that road yet...but his HR totals are dwindling. Chavis should be the sort of hitter who’ll get plenty of HR in Fenway if he stays all-fields. Plenty of power to get it out without swinging for the Monster.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 25, 2019 0:38:33 GMT -5
Check Encarnacion's stats on Fenway, dead pull groundball hitter, dead pull fly ball hitter. Pedrioa has also benefitted from being mostly a dead pull hitter most of his career at Fenway too. It's really okay to be a dead pull hitter in Fenway. There are numerous good examples beyond these two also. Millar, Cody Ross, John Valentin. Cody Ross is a good example (so’s Nick Esasky), but the issue for Chavis is that his quality of contact (and contact in general) seems to suffer when he goes for the fences. JDM was thought to be a “bad” fit for Fenway because of his all-field tendencies and “reliance” on oppo HR, but he’s the perfect example of all-fields success in that park. Chavis has plus to plus-plus bat speed; his AFL results show outstanding exit velocities. I think he’s best off focusing on hard contact, and maybe selective pull hitting depending on pitch/situation. Yeah, Cody Ross was a great match for Fenway because he was a dead-pull hitter. Problem for Chavis is that’s probably not ideal for him as a hitter. I think he needs to be a hitter first, then pull-hitter as dictated by situation.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 25, 2019 1:26:09 GMT -5
Check Encarnacion's stats on Fenway, dead pull groundball hitter, dead pull fly ball hitter. Pedrioa has also benefitted from being mostly a dead pull hitter most of his career at Fenway too. It's really okay to be a dead pull hitter in Fenway. There are numerous good examples beyond these two also. Millar, Cody Ross, John Valentin. Cody Ross is a good example (so’s Nick Esasky), but the issue for Chavis is that his quality of contact (and contact in general) seems to suffer when he goes for the fences. JDM was thought to be a “bad” fit for Fenway because of his all-field tendencies and “reliance” on oppo HR, but he’s the perfect example of all-fields success in that park. Chavis has plus to plus-plus bat speed; his AFL results show outstanding exit velocities. I think he’s best off focusing on hard contact, and maybe selective pull hitting depending on pitch/situation. Yeah, Cody Ross was a great match for Fenway because he was a dead-pull hitter. Problem for Chavis is that’s probably not ideal for him as a hitter. I think he needs to be a hitter first, then pull-hitter as dictated by situation. There's probably going to be years where Chavis hits .230 in the big leagues, and it kind of is what it is. It's why he's not a top 50 prospect. He has a average hit tool in the big leagues most likely. I wouldn't want him turning his swing into something he's not all of a sudden. Changing something drastic with his swing (like with what Xander did in 2015-2017, or what Sam Travis did last year) could be a disaster. Yeah some changes in people's swings can be a good thing (JBJ for example to make more contact). I just want Chavis to keep hitting the ball hard. It's more about health with Chavis that's a concern, and maybe watching his progress at second base now that Pedrioa is turning into a bench player.
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Post by sparkygian on Feb 25, 2019 1:53:12 GMT -5
It's the start of Spring Training, so I could be fooled by appearances, and easily misinterpret things without knowing what was specifically going on in the pitcher's and batter's minds when referring to specific at bats, and so maybe Chavis was specifically focusing on trying to hit opposite field, and pitcher gave him a good pitch to hit it out to right, whereas Chavis might regress back to being more of a pull hitter during the regular season, still Chavis' swing on both HRs really looked impressive for me. I feel like he's seemingly got the ability to be a good power hitter to all fields, so I hope he does end up having a good hitting tool; I would think he's definitely got a stronger hit tool than Dalbec does. Regardless, it was definitely a very impressive swing and homer. Hope he joins the strong nucleii of good, young Sox hitters at the MLB level.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 25, 2019 8:41:33 GMT -5
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Post by soxfansince67 on Feb 25, 2019 9:11:56 GMT -5
I thing, in general and already, spring training will give us lots to chew on, from (obviously) watching the ABs of the likes of Chavis and Dalbec, the way the regulars carry themselves and prepare, Pedey's health, sorting the pen arms. This is fun stuff!
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 25, 2019 10:05:27 GMT -5
The Twins played Chavis with an extreme shift with the 2B playing close to straight away SS, so that gives me my answer about how Chavis hits.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Feb 25, 2019 12:50:08 GMT -5
Workman was dealing (I've always liked him...hoping he finds the magic this year). First look at Brewer...looking really good so far. If only he could recover his fastball. Since his injury, the FB is more like a "show me". Outstanding breaking ball tho. I think he is a fringe guy but there are 2 openings. We'd better hope we can pull out a rabbit or two. If not, this site will be 'hot' come June. Also with what Jimed said with regards to not all get past velocity back. Last season, as remember Workman was only throwing around 89-90mph during ST and between 90-93mph 2017-18 (Brooks Baseball). With you on his curveball since he came back. it's like he found something extra on it, though it was always good. The dive it's had since the return is remarkable.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 25, 2019 13:23:43 GMT -5
Cody Ross is a good example (so’s Nick Esasky), but the issue for Chavis is that his quality of contact (and contact in general) seems to suffer when he goes for the fences. JDM was thought to be a “bad” fit for Fenway because of his all-field tendencies and “reliance” on oppo HR, but he’s the perfect example of all-fields success in that park. Chavis has plus to plus-plus bat speed; his AFL results show outstanding exit velocities. I think he’s best off focusing on hard contact, and maybe selective pull hitting depending on pitch/situation. Yeah, Cody Ross was a great match for Fenway because he was a dead-pull hitter. Problem for Chavis is that’s probably not ideal for him as a hitter. I think he needs to be a hitter first, then pull-hitter as dictated by situation. There's probably going to be years where Chavis hits .230 in the big leagues, and it kind of is what it is. It's why he's not a top 50 prospect. He has a average hit tool in the big leagues most likely. I wouldn't want him turning his swing into something he's not all of a sudden. Changing something drastic with his swing (like with what Xander did in 2015-2017, or what Sam Travis did last year) could be a disaster. Yeah some changes in people's swings can be a good thing (JBJ for example to make more contact). I just want Chavis to keep hitting the ball hard. It's more about health with Chavis that's a concern, and maybe watching his progress at second base now that Pedrioa is turning into a bench player. That’s kind of what I pointed out previously though: Chavis naturally has a tendency to pull, probably because of the bat speed. When he broke out in Salem, it was related to his pulling the ball less, going more up-the-middle and focused on hard contact. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828673&position=3B. By his own admission early in his career he was trying to hit HR too much. His GB rate has been pretty steady, but his breakout was associated with a huge leap in LD (hard high-quality contact). He was pulling the ball less, up the middle more. It’s subtle and there’s no massive difference revealed in any one statistic, except maybe BABIP. When he’s going well and making hard LD contact, and up the middle, his BABIP rockets up. It’s at or below .300 otherwise, from too many rolled over grounders or pop outs. I’m not talking about a swing change...I’m talking about maintaining his swing with an approach he’s intermittently shown. I think you’re right that he’s probably an average hit tool guy. I think the 40 FG puts on him is low. When going right, he has all-fields power and a LD swing with some natural loft. His K rates have never been terrific, but never especially concerning. His walk rates solid, but nothing special. I think he’s a .250-.270 hitter with a 0.060 IsoD and he might hit 20-30 HR. If he develops the hit tool at all, I’d say the high end of that range is a reasonable bet. If he can keep that hard-contact focus, I think he’ll be just fine. I’d love to see him have some success fielding at 2b. He’s got a plus arm, maybe he turns into early-career Dan Uggla.
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Post by manfred on Feb 26, 2019 10:30:40 GMT -5
Sorry if I missed this discussion but... it seems like Chavis is getting some time at 2B. Is that a position he has the glove and range to stick at?
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 26, 2019 10:39:00 GMT -5
Sorry if I missed this discussion but... it seems like Chavis is getting some time at 2B. Is that a position he has the glove and range to stick at? So I guess the important distinction you make is "stick at." I can't see him being particularly *good* at the position. But during a period where positioning is so much more prescise, and also the fact that second base defense is a tad less important than it once was, and teams can make the playoffs putting a Travis Shaw out there and letting the bat carry the glove? Yeah, I think he has the tools to be that sort of adequate. I guess my worry is that he hasn't been the most injury-free dude since he was drafted, and putting him at a defensive spot that will up the wear and tear seems risky to me.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 26, 2019 11:23:18 GMT -5
Co-sign the above. I think his best-case reasonable projection might be as a guy that can play 3-4 positions (I would like to see him in left, a position that's not nearly as offense-heavy as it once was) reasonably well enough to get his bat in the lineup, but he'll probably just be passable at all of them. That's enough if the bat gets close to a best case reasonable projection.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 26, 2019 11:26:11 GMT -5
I think Chavis could replace both Pearce and Nunez next year. We'd probably need another bench outfielder if Holt doesn't re-sign, unless Lin becomes the new Brock Holt and can become adequate in the corner outfielder spots.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Feb 27, 2019 8:40:21 GMT -5
So far this spring Training Bobby Dalbec is spotting a 1.048 OPS with a 0% walk rate. Sample size might be just a little bit small.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 27, 2019 9:02:15 GMT -5
So far this spring Training Bobby Dalbec is spotting a 1.048 OPS with a 0% walk rate. Sample size might be just a little bit small. Did you mean 0% K rate? He has walked 3 times and got hit by a pitch.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 27, 2019 9:49:38 GMT -5
This is disconcerting.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 27, 2019 9:53:53 GMT -5
I hope it's not Jerry.
edit- it's not. It's a family member of a player.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Feb 27, 2019 10:37:20 GMT -5
Any ideas? I thought of two possible issues - Kimbrel's child, and Pedey's wife (she's had melanoma for some years). Very concerning and puts baseball/sports into perspective no matter what this is. Keeping the team in my thoughts today.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 27, 2019 11:02:12 GMT -5
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Post by soxfansince67 on Feb 27, 2019 11:16:43 GMT -5
Twitter posts indicate it is not a child that is involved. Whew.
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