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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 9, 2019 9:20:28 GMT -5
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Post by SALNotes on Apr 9, 2019 9:45:44 GMT -5
Thanks Phil, I was just coming to do that.
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Post by huskies15 on Apr 9, 2019 10:04:59 GMT -5
Nice write-up, thanks for that! Interesting watching the 2080 video in your piece compared to the BP video from the SP guy in Fort Myers. He seems to have added the crouch since High School.
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Post by SALNotes on Apr 9, 2019 10:07:33 GMT -5
Yeah more pronounced for sure.
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Post by soxfan511 on Apr 9, 2019 12:42:03 GMT -5
More potential than Dalbec and a Chavis?
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Post by rismith on Apr 9, 2019 14:21:18 GMT -5
I like the high school vids better. Not crouched and not a huge leg kick. Seemed easy in terms of swing. I saw the vids from spring training and honestly was surprised and thought "Man, don't like a guy that big getting so small. Seems tense."
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 9, 2019 14:26:09 GMT -5
Triston Casas finally lets us all know what it would look like if Kevin McHale played baseball and used Jeff Bagwell's batting stance.
Kevin McHale and Jeff Bagwell are both Hall of Famers, of course, so I'm hardly one to question it.
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Post by rismith on Apr 9, 2019 15:25:11 GMT -5
JD, I hear ya but what do you think? From an untrained eye the high school swing looks "better". Easier position to load from, relax and react
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 10, 2019 10:18:39 GMT -5
JD, I hear ya but what do you think? From an untrained eye the high school swing looks "better". Easier position to load from, relax and react Maybe, though I'm not an expert on swing mechanics or anything. Casas is tall and has really long limbs so I don't know if it helps him see the ball better, or helps with plate coverage. Bagwell (like I mentioned), Pujols, Sosa... all generated a ton of power from stances that generally seemed less relaxed than you'd think.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Apr 11, 2019 21:15:47 GMT -5
While he did get a hit and a walk tonight, he also had two more strikeouts. I saw him strike out a lot in spring training games and so far during the regular season he has been striking out a lot too. I know people have concerns about Dalbec striking out too much, but am starting to think this might be a big problem for Casa as well.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,154
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Post by radiohix on Apr 11, 2019 21:57:12 GMT -5
While he did get a hit and a walk tonight, he also had two more strikeouts. I saw him strike out a lot in spring training games and so far during the regular season he has been striking out a lot too. I know people have concerns about Dalbec striking out too much, but am starting to think this might be a big problem for Casa as well. Yes Casas contact numbers so far are ugly but it's way too early to worry about them but certainly something to monitor as the season goes on. Regarding the comparison to Dalbec, remember Casas is 19 yo HS draftee having his first taste of professional baseball while Dalbec was 22 with playing time VS Short Sason ball competition. Casas has more time to adjust IMO.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 12, 2019 7:38:31 GMT -5
Phil Goyette @philofsports
Caught an AB from #DirtyWater 2018 1st rd Triston Casas (A-Full). Man he's big and long-legged. Sets up with a wide stance that takes up the entire batter's box as he's so tall. While he's big, his hips are kind of narrow and he's high waisted. (1/2)
Phil Goyette @philofsports
Got behind early in the AB against De La Cruz, choked up his swing with 2-strikes, got punched out. He's a 1B for me, and I'd wager he's going to have lots of swing-and-miss while he works on figuring things out.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 15, 2019 19:14:35 GMT -5
Did he want to style his stance after bagwell?
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Post by brendan98 on Apr 16, 2019 7:15:26 GMT -5
See some similarities to Albert Pujols swing. Not a huge fan of these swing mechanics, too spread out to get a real good hip turn, Casas is big and strong enough to make it work, but the mechanics are not helping him.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Apr 16, 2019 22:23:44 GMT -5
Two more strikeouts tonight. How many games do we have to wait before we can legitimately question whether this guy has issue in making contact?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 16, 2019 22:51:47 GMT -5
Two more strikeouts tonight. How many games do we have to wait before we can legitimately question whether this guy has issue in making contact? Maybe more than 13 games into his pro career ?
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 17, 2019 8:00:02 GMT -5
I recall that Stevenofbradenton, who has a pretty discerning eye, was not overly impressed watching Casas. If memory serves, he thought that he did not look very athletic fielding and sort of lumbering on the run....more a 1B type. As always, time will tell.
I note that the Sox farm has a 17-28 collective record to date.....about right for a system ranked on the very lower rungs.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Apr 17, 2019 8:07:07 GMT -5
Two more strikeouts tonight. How many games do we have to wait before we can legitimately question whether this guy has issue in making contact? Maybe more than 13 games into his pro career ? Except he had problems making contact during the minor league spring training games as well. So probably more like 26 games now.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 17, 2019 8:29:03 GMT -5
After 26 games in two years, we should all go with the opinions of the posters over those of the professionals.
Also note that from draft day there was the general opinion that there was a fair chance he'd end up at first base but you always try the higher value position first.
26 games including spring training. Are you people serious ?
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 17, 2019 9:54:58 GMT -5
Well, of course your comment has merit. Trained scouts are better equipped to judge talent. OTOH, let's look at how these professionals have done on high Sox picks. Top picks who have flamed over last 10 years or so...#1s Trey Ball, Deven Marrero, Kolbrin Vitek, Bryce Brentz, Anthony Ranaudo, Nick Hagadone, Jason Place, Rey Fuentes..#2s Sam Travis, Cole Brannen (but he is up to .149), Teddy Stankiewicz. And who can forget the less than immortal, Lars. I'm pretty sure all were high ranked at one point on this site too. Professional scouting is inexact.
I remember watching Lars take batting practice with Reddick and a couple of others. He was by far the least impressive with a languid swing that produced little of authority. Sure it was one day, only BP and I'm not a scout. But I reported it FWIW.
So I think it's A-OK for fans to watch drafted players and give their initial observations. Lots of people do so here. It's not hard to form a valid opinion on arm strength, running speed and even appearance of coordination/lack. Sure you take amateur reads with a grain, but I find them of interest.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 17, 2019 10:03:57 GMT -5
Scouting is observing what is done presently while trying to predict the future. Predicting the future is hard. Red Sox fans would have been pissed if they traded Trey Ball for JD Martinez in 2013.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 17, 2019 10:26:46 GMT -5
Well, of course your comment has merit. Trained scouts are better equipped to judge talent. OTOH, let's look at how these professionals have done on high Sox picks. Top picks who have flamed over last 10 years or so...#1s Trey Ball, Deven Marrero, Kolbrin Vitek, Bryce Brentz, Anthony Ranaudo, Nick Hagadone, Jason Place, Rey Fuentes..#2s Sam Travis, Cole Brannen (but he is up to .149), Teddy Stankiewicz. And who can forget the less than immortal, Lars. I'm pretty sure all were high ranked at one point on this site too. Professional scouting is inexact. I remember watching Lars take batting practice with Reddick and a couple of others. He was by far the least impressive with a languid swing that produced little of authority. Sure it was one day, only BP and I'm not a scout. But I reported it FWIW. So I think it's A-OK for fans to watch drafted players and give their initial observations. Lots of people do so here. It's not hard to form a valid opinion on arm strength, running speed and even appearance of coordination/lack. Sure you take amateur reads with a grain, but I find them of interest. Yes I'm sure the fan base would do a much better job than the draft team since hindsight is always 20/20. Betts, JBJ, Benny, Pedroia, Xander, Devers, Vazquez, Swihart (RIP). I find the observations of interest as well but to make a judgement based on 24 games (including spring training) after almost a year off for a high school kid seeing pitching like he's never seen before strikes me as being pretty bizarre.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 17, 2019 10:35:28 GMT -5
Full season ball is a difficult assignment for a HS draftee in their first full season. This was a topic that came up this offseason when we had Alex on. HS hitters that go right to Low A tend to get carved up at first.
Key for Casas will be his adjustments to how he's being pitched. We predicted on the pod this spring that Casas would start slow. Reports from both Instructs and ST were that the organization was happy with the progress Casas and scouts liked what they saw.
These initial struggles were foreseeable and I don't see any issues yet, especially in this sample size.
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Post by ramireja on Apr 17, 2019 11:47:05 GMT -5
Yeah, I mean its obviously early to be drawing firm conclusions but I also don't think its that crazy to couple scouting reports and this very early sample size and predict that swing-and-miss will be part of his game. The questions for me become 1) To what extent? A K-rate of 25% is much different than 35% or greater. 2) Can his quality of contact offset strikeout issues to help his BA? If he does settle into a 30% K-rate guy, what kind of BABIP are we looking at? That could be the difference between a .200 and .250 BA. He certainly seems to be a guy looking to hit the ball in the air with an all fields approach. 3) Can his walk rate offset his BA to help his OBP?
To answer the first, we quite literally need years to determine. I will say though, looking at our own Michael Chavis as a comparison...many viewed his full season debut in Greenville as a disappointment -- he struck out 30.6% of the time with a walk rate of only 6.2% leading to a wRC+ of 91 (although his .182 ISO was solid). Chavis has obviously rebounded with K-rates that have typically been between 20-25% and as a result, much improved offensive numbers overall. I do think he illustrates a single case (among many) of a HS pick who needed some time to adapt to full season ball. I think Casas is no different and for that reason, it really is premature to draw any serious conclusions about this issue. What is encouraging about Casas though, is that I have some optimism for the 2nd and 3rd questions I posed above. Again, its super early, but he's hitting for extra bases and walking a lot (15.9%). Even taking this transition into account, I'd be pretty happy with his season if his K% for the year was around 30% but with big walk rates (>10%) and quality contact/XHB (ISO near .200).
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,818
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Post by steveofbradenton on Apr 17, 2019 18:43:20 GMT -5
If there is anything I have drawn from watching GCL games, you can't predict what that kid will be or not be in 2 or 3 years. I was totally wrong about Travis Shaw and Lin. I couldn't see either "making it". You just never know. The physical development that happens from 18 to 22 is huge. Chavis looked like a complete miss in Greenville, and now is months away from contributing.
Casas is a real wild card. He will end up one direction or another, in my opinion. Solid above average regular or one who never sniff the big leagues. I like that they are "forcing" him to play some third, but I see a 1st basemen. I see a really good 1st basemen! I'm worried about consistent contact and allowing his power to show.
Funny, but I really like Decker, and he is being held back.
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