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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 7, 2019 23:57:48 GMT -5
I asked to throw a wrench into the habit of only doing updates to make it look the most hopeless for effect. Sox are 21-12 in last 33 games. I'm actually waiting in blocks. If it feels like it's only when they're losing, it's because they do it a lot. I personally don't want the WC2. I also wouldn't have decided to gloat after you won the last game of a 3-game series against the Yankees and took 3 straight against the worst team in baseball. Almost on cue, they lost today against a team that's over .500. I'll pull the math tomorrow at who needs what to reach the magic numbers. Even though the Red Sox impressive 4 win streak was snapped by the very team they're trailing horribly for WC1. At this point does it really matter if they're WC1 or WC2? They'd play at Tampa where there are probably more Red Sox fans than Rays fans. Do the Rays even have fans? It's not like the Red Sox are world beaters at Fenway anyways. They're 14-13. They're not the 57-24 home team from last year. It's a matter of playing 1 great game. If they can't do that they don't deserve to advance, regardless if they're WC1 or WC2. As it is I'd expect either Sale or Price versus either Snell or Glasnow. I'll guess Sale versus Snell. Hope they play better then than they did tonight. We could do this all season where when the Sox go well we'll hear that the Sox math is favorable and when they go bad we'll hear it's impossible. The truth lies somewhere in between most likely. The most likely scenario is that the Red Sox don't catch NY and most likely don't catch Tampa either. They're both excellent teams in their own right. The odds are the Red Sox don't play meaningful games toward the end of the season because they'll probably have the second wild card wrapped up pretty easily or at least by 3 or 4 games, and will be preparing for Tampa.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 8, 2019 9:31:06 GMT -5
I'm actually waiting in blocks. If it feels like it's only when they're losing, it's because they do it a lot. I personally don't want the WC2. I also wouldn't have decided to gloat after you won the last game of a 3-game series against the Yankees and took 3 straight against the worst team in baseball. Almost on cue, they lost today against a team that's over .500. I'll pull the math tomorrow at who needs what to reach the magic numbers. Even though the Red Sox impressive 4 win streak was snapped by the very team they're trailing horribly for WC1. At this point does it really matter if they're WC1 or WC2? They'd play at Tampa where there are probably more Red Sox fans than Rays fans. Do the Rays even have fans? It's not like the Red Sox are world beaters at Fenway anyways. They're 14-13. They're not the 57-24 home team from last year. It's a matter of playing 1 great game. If they can't do that they don't deserve to advance, regardless if they're WC1 or WC2. As it is I'd expect either Sale or Price versus either Snell or Glasnow. I'll guess Sale versus Snell. Hope they play better then than they did tonight. We could do this all season where when the Sox go well we'll hear that the Sox math is favorable and when they go bad we'll hear it's impossible. The truth lies somewhere in between most likely. The most likely scenario is that the Red Sox don't catch NY and most likely don't catch Tampa either. They're both excellent teams in their own right. The odds are the Red Sox don't play meaningful games toward the end of the season because they'll probably have the second wild card wrapped up pretty easily or at least by 3 or 4 games, and will be preparing for Tampa. The main point of this thread was to keep an eye on the statistical probability of the hole they dug themselves back in April, and currently, it continues to play out. We ate starting to resign the fact that they aren't going to be division winners and that they're likely not going to be WC1 winners either. The entire season is going to be trying to keep in the hunt for WC2 which currently has a crowded field. That's a bit risky to waste assets on whether it's trading prospects or letting players walk or devalue. I'd be mortified to go on the road and face Snell or Glassnow in a 1-game play-in especially with your bullpen. I'd imagine it would be Price since he's having a tremendous year and Sale just got under a 4 ERA thanks to a 9 inning performance against the Royals plus his tendency to break down in the 2nd half. Against .500+ teams the Red Sox are: A's - 4-3 Diamondbacks - 1-2 Yankees - 1-4 Rays - 3-3 White Sox - 3-1 Rockies - 1-1 Astros - 2-4 Indians - 1-2 Total: 16-20 The Red Sox have played 1 more game than the Yankees and 2 more than the Rays. To get to 90 wins from here the teams need to win out the following percentages: Yankees: 51% Rays: 51.5% Red Sox: 66.7% Red Sox are tied with Texas for WC2 who have played two less games, 1 ahead of Cleveland, 1 ahead of Oakland, and 3.5 ahead of the White Sox and Angels.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 8, 2019 10:09:40 GMT -5
The Red Sox have played 1 more game than the Yankees and 2 more than the Rays. To get to 90 wins from here the teams need to win out the following percentages: Yankees: 51% Rays: 51.5% Red Sox: 66.7% Red Sox are tied with Texas for WC2 who have played two less games, 1 ahead of Cleveland, 1 ahead of Oakland, and 3.5 ahead of the White Sox and Angels. You might want to check your math on that. Red Sox have to have a winning percentage of 57.5% to win 90, not 66.7%. They need to win 66.7% to win 100. There are 99 freaking games left. They made up 3 games in the last week on the Yankees.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 8, 2019 10:37:46 GMT -5
The Red Sox have played 1 more game than the Yankees and 2 more than the Rays. To get to 90 wins from here the teams need to win out the following percentages: Yankees: 51% Rays: 51.5% Red Sox: 66.7% Red Sox are tied with Texas for WC2 who have played two less games, 1 ahead of Cleveland, 1 ahead of Oakland, and 3.5 ahead of the White Sox and Angels. You might want to check your math on that. Red Sox have to have a winning percentage of 57.5% to win 90, not 66.7%. They need to win 66.7% to win 100. There are 99 freaking games left. They made up 3 games in the last week on the Yankees. Thank you, I was a tad in a rush and see what I did wrong there. I thought that number was a tad outlandish, but ran with it anyways. Not impossible to ask for 58% ball, but you're asking the Yankees and Rays to play sub-.500 with games in hand.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 8, 2019 10:40:08 GMT -5
You might want to check your math on that. Red Sox have to have a winning percentage of 57.5% to win 90, not 66.7%. They need to win 66.7% to win 100. There are 99 freaking games left. They made up 3 games in the last week on the Yankees. Thank you, I was a tad in a rush and see what I did wrong there. I thought that number was a tad outlandish, but ran with it anyways. Not impossible to ask for 58% ball, but you're asking the Yankees and Rays to play sub-.500 with games in hand. I'll make you a leave the board forever bet that the Red Sox win 93 games.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 8, 2019 10:57:16 GMT -5
Thank you, I was a tad in a rush and see what I did wrong there. I thought that number was a tad outlandish, but ran with it anyways. Not impossible to ask for 58% ball, but you're asking the Yankees and Rays to play sub-.500 with games in hand. I'll make you a leave the board forever bet that the Red Sox win 93 games. I'll make that bet if you're willing to oblige. Their final win predicted total is 90 games currently.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 8, 2019 11:09:33 GMT -5
I'll make you a leave the board forever bet that the Red Sox win 93 games. I'll make that bet if you're willing to oblige. Their final win predicted total is 90 games currently. I think they'll surpass 90. 93 wins is a reasonable amount. Lots of crappy teams around. The O's pretty much give up every July.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 8, 2019 11:13:50 GMT -5
I'll make that bet if you're willing to oblige. Their final win predicted total is 90 games currently. I think they'll surpass 90. 93 wins is a reasonable amount. Lots of crappy teams around. The O's pretty much give up every July. There's a lot of variables to consider. If they get separation towards the end for WC2 and are too far behind WC1 and division they could rest. If they go on an extended losing streak between now and July, they could punt if Henry doesn't feel like the team he's paying for isn't worth it. The Red Sox also have been very healthy and haven't sustained a significant injury like Sale, Price, Mookie, JD, Devers, ect. I mean, they lost Eovaldi, but that's your 4th or 5th. They have virtually no depth with a bad bullpen. It's a very top heavy team, which, the top level is arguably the best in baseball. This team has been incredibly fortunate with the production they have gotten out of Chavis who wasn't ranked in the top 100 and was suppose to be a late summer callup at the earliest (don't get it confused, I'm a huge Chavis fan).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 8, 2019 11:45:46 GMT -5
I think they'll surpass 90. 93 wins is a reasonable amount. Lots of crappy teams around. The O's pretty much give up every July. There's a lot of variables to consider. If they get separation towards the end for WC2 and are too far behind WC1 and division they could rest. If they go on an extended losing streak between now and July, they could punt if Henry doesn't feel like the team he's paying for isn't worth it. The Red Sox also have been very healthy and haven't sustained a significant injury like Sale, Price, Mookie, JD, Devers, ect. I mean, they lost Eovaldi, but that's your 4th or 5th. They have virtually no depth with a bad bullpen. It's a very top heavy team, which, the top level is arguably the best in baseball. This team has been incredibly fortunate with the production they have gotten out of Chavis who wasn't ranked in the top 100 and was suppose to be a late summer callup at the earliest (don't get it confused, I'm a huge Chavis fan). I think the bold is a very small probability. It's probably a lesser chance than they go on a Morgan Magic Run (remember the 1988 run the Sox went on when they went from 5th, about 10 games out to tied for 1st in 3 weeks when they went 19-1? Similar to last year's start.) I think neither is very likely. I don't see any reason to punt. Last year they'd played at the most maximum best they can. If they play at their minimum best outcome (I think they'll play better than that), the median of that is still a solid team capable of winning it all if they get hot at the right time. The depth is terrible right now. Perhaps they relied too much on Pedroia being healthy so there went Holt as the utility man, and of course he got hurt. Pearce should have been great depth, but he's been injured and not right. I wonder if his spring training injury played a part in him being so bad when he was playing. Nunez wasn't supposed to be THIS bad. And then Brian Johnson got injured and Velazquez started to return to earth, so yeah, there goes the depth.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 8, 2019 14:59:55 GMT -5
Our futility with RISP he last 30 days is one of the leading factors on why we are not gaining ground on TB/NYT
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 8, 2019 15:06:14 GMT -5
Our futility with RISP he last 30 days is one of the leading factors on why we are not gaining ground on TB/NYT Excuse me, because I'm not too knowledgeable on this statistic, but could a factor in this be that they have hitters like JBJ, Leon, Vazquez, Nunez, Pearce, Lin, Travis and I'm going to start including Benny in situations and they're just not hitting? It's also just a general question, I'm not sure if anyone I just mentioned has been good in those situations.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 8, 2019 15:20:26 GMT -5
Math revisited - if they lose this Tampa game (first of the double header), puts them at 33-31. There are 98 games remaining.
Let's say "making the cut" for a playoff position is 90 wins they need to go 57-41 the rest of the way, .582 baseball. Certainly doable.
But - at some point the team needs to start playing like it can play .582 baseball. 64 games is a pretty big sampling for the 2019 Sox. Not sure what will be the catalyst to turn things around.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 8, 2019 15:36:41 GMT -5
also a factor in not gaining ground in the standings:
Our record vs playoff team/ teams above .500
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 8, 2019 15:54:36 GMT -5
Here's a shocker - the Bobby Valentine Red Sox at one point in July were 48-45. Then....they only won 21 more games (and lost 48)
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 8, 2019 16:05:46 GMT -5
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 8, 2019 17:51:10 GMT -5
For all the doom and gloom on what the Sox need to do record wise from hear on I suggest going to the Royals series thread page 10 and read some analysis from Eric. Maybe a mod can move them to this thread for further consumption.
Just want to point out that just about every year their are teams that go on 67% winning % runs, plenty of baseball left and 14 games against each of the teams in front of you can change things quick.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 9, 2019 14:30:08 GMT -5
The Sox are sellers, unless they can start beating teams with a +.500 record. Which they seem incapable of doing.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 9, 2019 15:00:28 GMT -5
Thankfully the Sox didn’t blow past the luxury tax again. The BP is far from our only issue. Mookie/AB/JdM etc are all struggling and another cause of the Sox terrible play.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 9, 2019 16:02:34 GMT -5
The Sox are sellers, unless they can start beating teams with a +.500 record. Which they seem incapable of doing. Yet they are clearly a playoff team. Who are you going to sell? And what does that do to the team next year? They have a solid core next year. You can;t have everyone firing on all cylinders and all healthy every year. Last year they pretty much did. This year, not so much. They can still be competitive, though.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 9, 2019 16:25:40 GMT -5
The Sox are sellers, unless they can start beating teams with a +.500 record. Which they seem incapable of doing. Yet they are clearly a playoff team. Who are you going to sell? And what does that do to the team next year? They have a solid core next year. You can;t have everyone firing on all cylinders and all healthy every year. Last year they pretty much did. This year, not so much. They can still be competitive, though. No. This team is clearly not a playoff team. Not only do we stink against playoff teams, struggle with RISP for almost 3 weeks, but the top of the order and our best hitters (Mookie/JDM/AB are either injured on in a prolonged slump. We are going to dig ourself a hole that is too big to get out of.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 9, 2019 16:35:14 GMT -5
The Sox are sellers, unless they can start beating teams with a +.500 record. Which they seem incapable of doing. Yet they are clearly a playoff team. Who are you going to sell? And what does that do to the team next year? They have a solid core next year. You can;t have everyone firing on all cylinders and all healthy every year. Last year they pretty much did. This year, not so much. They can still be competitive, though. Confused what makes it so clear given their track record this year. Currently, they're out of the playoffs entirely. The likelihood of getting WC1 and the division is rapidly getting out of hand. They're clinging to hope they can secure the 1 game play in on the road against the other middling teams of the AL. They aren't capable of winning against winning teams, their bullpen is terrible, they have no depth, they're suffering from regression from key guys, and they've been super healthy the last two years with core guys. Your season shouldn't get derailed if Eovaldi or Moreland go down. They haven't dealt with an extended Mookie, Martinez, Devers, Xander, Price or Sale injuries. They were buoyed earlier when Chavis was called up and crushed everything his way, but now he's playing like he's been rushed to the majors. I'd expect stretches of inept at bats from a rookie and still love him as a prospect. They could sell Martinez if they feel like he'll opt out. At that point you have to decide between him or Betts (meaning resigning him likely means Betts is gone in 2021). This organization could feel like they don't want to invest that money in either guy. At this point you're not expecting to get in because you're that good. You're hoping to get in because other teams are just worse than you.
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Post by Coreno on Jun 9, 2019 16:59:50 GMT -5
For everyone bent out of shape because the most likely path for this team at this point is as the 2nd wildcard: since the wildcard game began in 2012, home teams are 6-8 in it.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 9, 2019 17:37:49 GMT -5
For everyone bent out of shape because the most likely path for this team at this point is as the 2nd wildcard: since the wildcard game began in 2012, home teams are 6-8 in it. Interesting. Though in the AL you had 2018 Yankees over Athletics 2017 Yankees over Twins 2016 Jays over O's (identical records) 2015 Away team wins. Houston over NY 2014 KC over A's 2013 Away team wins. Rays over Indians 2012 Away team wins. O's over Rangers (identical records) So, for the AL, the home team is 4-3. The one playoff team that won the World Series since the expanded format was a WC2 team that had an identical record as the WC1 team which suggests that the two teams were at least about even. Personally, I'm not a fan of being either WC1 or 2, but if you're WC 1 it probably means you were at least in the hunt for the division.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 9, 2019 20:33:12 GMT -5
For everyone bent out of shape because the most likely path for this team at this point is as the 2nd wildcard: since the wildcard game began in 2012, home teams are 6-8 in it. Interesting. Though in the AL you had 2018 Yankees over Athletics 2017 Yankees over Twins 2016 Jays over O's (identical records) 2015 Away team wins. Houston over NY 2014 KC over A's 2013 Away team wins. Rays over Indians 2012 Away team wins. O's over Rangers (identical records) So, for the AL, the home team is 4-3. The one playoff team that won the World Series since the expanded format was a WC2 team that had an identical record as the WC1 team which suggests that the two teams were at least about even. Personally, I'm not a fan of being either WC1 or 2, but if you're WC 1 it probably means you were at least in the hunt for the division. I'm not a fan of the Wild Card, period, let alone the 2 wild card system, but it's here. The reality is that playing in Tampa is as close to a home game as you can have if you're the Red Sox. Those are huge pro-Tampa crowds at the Trop. If it gets filled it's because Red Sox fans would be filling the ballpark. The real issue in a playoff game against the Rays is having to face Blake Snell. You'd kind of have to hope the Rays need to win the last day to have a shot at the division and burn out Snell. Not really likely. Either way, it's a 1 game playoff and if a team is going to lose and have it be less painful it would be WC2, because if you're WC1, that means you likely just missed winning your division so there's that disappointment, and if you get knocked out in the WC game, it doubly stings. Sort of like the Cubs last year. That was brutal for them. If you're WC2 and you lose, well, what's the big deal? You beat out the best of a bad lot and if you can't beat WC1, what shot did you really have winning an additional 11 games? You just chalk it up as WC2 wasn't good enough to win and didn't deserve to go forward. Less painful than WC1. So at that point, really, WC2 doesn't have much to lose. If they win the WC game, cool. If they lose, oh well - wasn't their year anyways.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 9, 2019 21:10:15 GMT -5
Interesting. Though in the AL you had 2018 Yankees over Athletics 2017 Yankees over Twins 2016 Jays over O's (identical records) 2015 Away team wins. Houston over NY 2014 KC over A's 2013 Away team wins. Rays over Indians 2012 Away team wins. O's over Rangers (identical records) So, for the AL, the home team is 4-3. The one playoff team that won the World Series since the expanded format was a WC2 team that had an identical record as the WC1 team which suggests that the two teams were at least about even. Personally, I'm not a fan of being either WC1 or 2, but if you're WC 1 it probably means you were at least in the hunt for the division. I'm not a fan of the Wild Card, period, let alone the 2 wild card system, but it's here. The reality is that playing in Tampa is as close to a home game as you can have if you're the Red Sox. Those are huge pro-Tampa crowds at the Trop. If it gets filled it's because Red Sox fans would be filling the ballpark. The real issue in a playoff game against the Rays is having to face Blake Snell. You'd kind of have to hope the Rays need to win the last day to have a shot at the division and burn out Snell. Not really likely. Either way, it's a 1 game playoff and if a team is going to lose and have it be less painful it would be WC2, because if you're WC1, that means you likely just missed winning your division so there's that disappointment, and if you get knocked out in the WC game, it doubly stings. Sort of like the Cubs last year. That was brutal for them. If you're WC2 and you lose, well, what's the big deal? You beat out the best of a bad lot and if you can't beat WC1, what shot did you really have winning an additional 11 games? You just chalk it up as WC2 wasn't good enough to win and didn't deserve to go forward. Less painful than WC1. So at that point, really, WC2 doesn't have much to lose. If they win the WC game, cool. If they lose, oh well - wasn't their year anyways. Well, now we're looking at a real possibility of NY being that 1-game play-in and we know those fans show up. Snell or Glasnow (assuming both are still pitching this way) scare the living crap out of me. Plenty of championship teams have lost game 1 of a series, which is why the 1-game play-in is both insanely fun, but incredibly stupid. But I'm all for going for WC2, to a degree. Is it worth wasting assets to get there? Let's say a team, like the Rays, want to get stupid and offer you Wander Franco, Brendan McKay, and Brent Honeywell for Mookie Betts. Do you say no because you have hopes for 2019 WC2?
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