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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 3, 2019 22:30:45 GMT -5
113 games played, 49 remain.
59-54 record.
Path to 90 wins requires a 31-18 record - .633 clip. 90 wins won't get them into the dance, I suspect.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 3, 2019 23:25:42 GMT -5
Playoff chances - FanGraphs has us at 24% chance for playoffs after today's losses. Baseball Reference at 15% before the second loss. 538 has us at 13% after today's losses.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 3, 2019 23:32:35 GMT -5
At this point it wouldn’t even shock me if the Sox finish under .500 I would be. A week ago I said it was sink or swim for the Red Sox and (after 3 straight wins) they decided to swim - and swim they did - right into an iceberg. After the Red Sox get swept by the Yankees tomorrow I anticipate they will play their best ball. They'll show the KC Royals who's boss. Now that the season is virtually over they'll finally start winning - and it won't matter.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 3, 2019 23:52:20 GMT -5
At this point it wouldn’t even shock me if the Sox finish under .500 I would be. A week ago I said it was sink or swim for the Red Sox and (after 3 straight wins) they decided to swim - and swim they did - right into an iceberg. After the Red Sox get swept by the Yankees tomorrow I anticipate they will play their best ball. They'll show the KC Royals who's boss. Now that the season is virtually over they'll finally start winning - and it won't matter. 538 has us finishing 87-75 - seems about right.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 4, 2019 20:19:39 GMT -5
At this point it wouldn’t even shock me if the Sox finish under .500 Yah this team is definitely ending the season under.500 In complete freefall.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 4, 2019 20:24:01 GMT -5
🎵🎵the wheels on the bus are falling off. Falling off... falling off.. the wheels on the bus are falling off🎵
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 4, 2019 21:08:16 GMT -5
At this point it wouldn’t even shock me if the Sox finish under .500 Yah this team is definitely ending the season under.500 In complete freefall. Nah, they'll put together a 10 game winning streak now that it doesn't matter anymore. They'll handle KC and they'll finally start beating Baltimore and they'll still handle Toronto. They'll heat up - and it won't make any difference whatsoever other than to make their draft pick get into the 20s.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 4, 2019 21:36:10 GMT -5
Yah this team is definitely ending the season under.500 In complete freefall. Nah, they'll put together a 10 game winning streak now that it doesn't matter anymore. They'll handle KC and they'll finally start beating Baltimore and they'll still handle Toronto. They'll heat up - and it won't make any difference whatsoever other than to make their draft pick get into the 20s. This team struggles to beat other crappy teams.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 5, 2019 9:44:05 GMT -5
Yah this team is definitely ending the season under.500 In complete freefall. Nah, they'll put together a 10 game winning streak now that it doesn't matter anymore. They'll handle KC and they'll finally start beating Baltimore and they'll still handle Toronto. They'll heat up - and it won't make any difference whatsoever other than to make their draft pick get into the 20s. I am still holding out complete kismet and having this team either qualify for the WC or back-in on the last day, win the playoff game in improbable fashion, then suddenly respond to the short series challenge, win the first round and play Houston in the ALCS for the World Series just to blow up the brains of all the NYY fans and haters.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 5, 2019 10:08:12 GMT -5
Nah, they'll put together a 10 game winning streak now that it doesn't matter anymore. They'll handle KC and they'll finally start beating Baltimore and they'll still handle Toronto. They'll heat up - and it won't make any difference whatsoever other than to make their draft pick get into the 20s. I am still holding out complete kismet and having this team either qualify for the WC or back-in on the last day, win the playoff game in improbable fashion, then suddenly respond to the short series challenge, win the first round and play Houston in the ALCS for the World Series just to blow up the brains of all the NYY fans and haters. It's a nice dream. When it comes to the 2019 Red Sox that's all you can do, dream. They've already put me to sleep. I'm under no illusions that the Sox are going to defend their title in October. I do think they'll get hot and get people all excited, but honestly, after seeing what TB and NYY did to the Sox (and Houston is no picnic and Cleveland kicked the Sox' butts, too), I have no strong desire to see the Sox get wasted in the post-season even if it did go beyond 1 game. There will be no Aaron Boone/Bucky Dent moment this year, and I'm alright with that. Let the starters take the long vacation, give them a real spring training next year, and hope for the best.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 5, 2019 10:24:10 GMT -5
Here's some simple interesting historical math that shows that historically when the Sox have an epic/historic season, they really fall off the next season quite often.
1904: 95-59 .617 1905: 78-74 .513
1912: 105-47 .691 1913: 79-71 .527
1918: 75-51 .595 1919: 66-71 .482
1946: 104-50 .675 1947: 83-71 .539
1975: 95-65 .594 1976: 83-79 .512
1986: 95-66 .590 1987: 78-84 .481
1995: 86-58 .597 1996: 85-77 .525
2013: 97-65 .599 2014: 71-91 .438
2018: 108-54 .667 2019: 80 something wins
Some great Sox teams have found been just as good the following year: 1903 followed up by 1904, 1915 followed up by 1916 - still good in 1917.
Sox were great 3 years in a row without any post-season 1948 - 1950.
Sox were only 6 games worse in 1968, although it felt a lot different than 1967.
The Sox put together reasonable defense titles in 2005 and 2008 and followed up a solid 2016 with a solid 2017 followed up by an epic 2018.
Basically in a way, we're re-enacting the 1913 baseball season, going through the how can they have gone from that to this follow up season that they did 106 years ago. Of course, back then it was Smoky Joe Wood breaking his thumb slipping on wet grass to field a bunt in 1913 that torpedoed that season, but it doesn't explain their entire slide. I guess it really does all start with starting pitching!!!
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 5, 2019 10:47:36 GMT -5
Here's some simple interesting historical math that shows that historically when the Sox have an epic/historic season, they really fall off the next season quite often. 1904: 95-59 .617 1905: 78-74 .513 1912: 105-47 .691 1913: 79-71 .527 1918: 75-51 .595 1919: 66-71 .482 1946: 104-50 .675 1947: 83-71 .539 1975: 95-65 .594 1976: 83-79 .512 1986: 95-66 .590 1987: 78-84 .481 1995: 86-58 .597 1996: 85-77 .525 2013: 97-65 .599 2014: 71-91 .438 2018: 108-54 .667 2019: 80 something wins Some great Sox teams have found been just as good the following year: 1903 followed up by 1904, 1915 followed up by 1916 - still good in 1917. Sox were great 3 years in a row without any post-season 1948 - 1950. Sox were only 6 games worse in 1968, although it felt a lot different than 1967. The Sox put together reasonable defense titles in 2005 and 2008 and followed up a solid 2016 with a solid 2017 followed up by an epic 2018. Basically in a way, we're re-enacting the 1913 baseball season, going through the how can they have gone from that to this follow up season that they did 106 years ago. Of course, back then it was Smoky Joe Wood breaking his thumb slipping on wet grass to field a bunt in 1913 that torpedoed that season, but it doesn't explain their entire slide. I guess it really does all start with starting pitching!!! Which again brings us to..." Repeating is really hard". Thx for pulling that data together; it is something I've been curious about myself
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 6, 2019 20:58:30 GMT -5
Yah this team is definitely ending the season under.500 In complete freefall. Nah, they'll put together a 10 game winning streak now that it doesn't matter anymore. They'll handle KC and they'll finally start beating Baltimore and they'll still handle Toronto. They'll heat up - and it won't make any difference whatsoever other than to make their draft pick get into the 20s. Royals are handling us.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 6, 2019 21:02:53 GMT -5
Playing like crap at home and playing like crap against bad teams
2019 Sox in a nutshell
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Post by itsdunkindonutstime on Aug 6, 2019 21:29:53 GMT -5
Playing like crap at home and playing like crap against bad teams 2019 Sox in a nutshell There are 47 games remainding ( I think ) unless we go something like 35-12 not only that but we are about to be 15.5 games behind in our division and Oakland just about to win so that would put Sox 6.5 games out of WC spot. Stick it in fork I am afraid to say this but Darwinzon looks very promising heading into 2020. hes a keeper.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 6, 2019 21:53:49 GMT -5
60-56. 4 games over .500 and we are still thinking we may squeak into the playoffs??
116 games played. 46 games remain.
To win 90 games, 30-16 is required. Not gonna happen.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 10, 2019 9:51:34 GMT -5
Here we are on August 10 - 62-56, 6 games over, 118 games played, 44 to go.
Road to 90 wins is a 28-16 finish, .636 clip.
FanGraphs has us at 13.7% chance for postseason play, Baseball reference at 4.4%, 538 at 10% with prediction of 87 wins.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 11, 2019 16:13:36 GMT -5
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 11, 2019 16:17:22 GMT -5
62-58, 4 games over .500 after 120 games.
42 remain. Need to go 28-14 to reach 90 wins.
538 has us at 6% chance at playoffs with 85 wins, Fangraphs 6.5% chance, Baseball reference 2%
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Post by kjkramer on Aug 11, 2019 22:55:14 GMT -5
I am trying to remain optimistic but we are basically eliminated unless we put together an insane clip PLUS a fee teams in front of us falter. The fat lady isnt singing but she is definitely in the room and warming up her vocal chords. We basically Have to win 8 of the next 10 or better to even think of getting back in this thing
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 12, 2019 4:03:59 GMT -5
Don't look now but the Sox are closing in on the NL Central Division lead.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 12, 2019 8:51:22 GMT -5
I am trying to remain optimistic but we are basically eliminated unless we put together an insane clip PLUS a fee teams in front of us falter. The fat lady isnt singing but she is definitely in the room and warming up her vocal chords. We basically Have to win 8 of the next 10 or better to even think of getting back in this thing The "fat lady" flipped the 2019 season the bird after the Yankees finished off the Sox. Frankly they were killed off in that TB series they got swept at home - I mean Tampa was one of the teams they were chasing. The Yankees basically danced on their corpse for four days. The 2019 Red Sox are dead in the water. They're not going to have some mega-hot streak. They probably will play better at some point but I've been saying that most of the season expecting some kind of 30-15 stretch or something like that - which they probably already did and they made sure to follow it up with a killer 8 game losing streak. I mean, you have 6-13 to start the season. You also have 3-11 featuring that 8 game losing streak. They really couldn't afford another streak like that but they did it anyways. If the Rays/A's/Indians/Twins weren't as good as they are they might have been able to get away with it, but at this point of the season, they have Porcello and Cashner going every 5th day with no good alternatives and their bullpen is what it is. And the other aggravating aspect of their season is - think to how many games the Sox have had where if they can score in the last of the 9th or the last of the 10th they win - and yet they don't often get that big hit. That's the sign of a team not going anywhere. The Red Sox made their intentions for the 2019 season perfectly clear already. They weren't ready for the season when it happened, figured they'd flip a switch and their talent would take over, and it did for awhile - they played .600 ball for a stretch, but then their pitching hit a wall again - and here they are. It's just not their year. There's nothing special about this team in 2019. It sucks but it happens.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 12, 2019 21:51:53 GMT -5
Another loss - now 3 over .500, 62-59. 121 played, 41 to go.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 12, 2019 22:10:24 GMT -5
Another loss - now 3 over .500, 62-59. 121 played, 41 to go. I really appreciate you picking up the slack. Ever since that Rays and Yankees series I just gave up on the odds. I expected them to battle, but ultimately come up short. I was not expecting this.
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Post by Addam603 on Aug 13, 2019 6:07:19 GMT -5
Mathematically the Red Sox are closer to a top 10 draft pick in next year’s draft than they are the playoffs. 8.5 games out of the wildcard. 5.5 games away from the 10th pick.
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