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5/2-5/5 Red Sox @ White Sox Series Thread
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Post by jimed14 on May 2, 2019 22:58:42 GMT -5
Devers has 40 percent of the errors on this team. And yet JBJ has been the worst defender on the team by far and I bet you haven't noticed.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,320
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Post by radiohix on May 2, 2019 23:01:25 GMT -5
After tonight's game, Mitch Moreland now sports a .164 BABIP (trailing just Jay Bruce at .160)!
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Post by James Dunne on May 2, 2019 23:01:32 GMT -5
After tonight's game, Mitch Moreland now sports a .164 BABIP (trailing just Jay Bruce at .160)! He's having a very weird year, for sure. Hard to call a guy with a 29% HR/FB rate unlucky.
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Post by sarasoxer on May 2, 2019 23:06:26 GMT -5
Sadly Kimbrel would have saved this game. Get used to it this year. More similar games will follow.
I don't blame Sox management. We can't afford to continue to sacrifice the farm by spending.
Enjoy player development, and look toward 2020 and beyond.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 2, 2019 23:13:50 GMT -5
It's really hard for the 2019 Red Sox to string a bunch of wins in a row together. This year there's always something that jumps up and bites them. You start thinking, well, maybe they're turning a corner...and then something like this happens and you realize it's going to take awhile longer. As telson says, Brasier seems to get better results than what his actual performance looks like. Kimbrel let some saves slip away, too, at times, but last year, for some reason, the Sox didn't blow too many late leads. This year, the bullpen has let a few more slip away. It's too bad, because this was clearly a winnable game they let slip away. Hope this doesn't put them in a funk for the rest of the series. [ They need offense from more than Benny, Mookie and JDM, too. Can't let the offense off the hook for this loss, either. And Raffi's bad error. Yeah, not a great night offensively either. Too many of those so far. As far as Devers' defense goes, yes he has good range, and the tools to become a really good 3b, and the range is the most important factor because converting balls into outs that other 3b don't make is a big deal. However, you can't take routine ground balls and turn them into baserunners. It's a disaster waiting to happen. Now if it were a case that his range was the reason why he was picking up so many errors that would be one thing, but the eyeball test says that's not the case. He's had a lot of errors on plays that 3b should make. I can't act like it's all about his fielding pct and the range doesn't matter, but I also can't pretend that the errors aren't harmful either. Eventually, he'll grow out of it, but until then...we'll keep seeing those errors and unearned runs occur.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 2, 2019 23:14:03 GMT -5
Devers has 40 percent of the errors on this team. And yet JBJ has been the worst defender on the team by far and I bet you haven't noticed. I have noticed JBJ's awful year overall, but he has a great track record on defense and he is what he is on offense.
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Post by Don Caballero on May 2, 2019 23:14:15 GMT -5
The good thing about being bad early on is that it's hard to be disappointed.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 2, 2019 23:17:42 GMT -5
All momentum from yesterday flushed down the toilet with the Rays winning and Sox losing in the most crushing way.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 2, 2019 23:38:32 GMT -5
Some years it's just your year and sometimes it just doesn't feel like it's your year. 2019 has that latter feeling. It's still way too early to give up, but from a totally emotional and non-intellectual point of view, something just feels off about this team, and it doesn't feel like this will be a year where things go (mostly) right. It's going to be an uphill battle just to be respectable. In 2018 they don't lose this game. Oh, maybe Kimbrel would have blown the lead, but they would have held the tie, and found a way to win in extra innings. Different year. Different result.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on May 3, 2019 8:04:29 GMT -5
I fell asleep earlier than usual last night. Glad I didn’t go to sleep sad.
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Post by cheers on May 3, 2019 8:38:18 GMT -5
Devers has 40 percent of the errors on this team. And yet JBJ has been the worst defender on the team by far and I bet you haven't noticed. Using the current defensive metrics to evaluate defenders is not at all different from using ERA to judge the quality of relievers. Devers is a consistently not-good defender. It is obvious when you watch him. Bradley, while he has a gaffe from time to time, is clearly a pretty-good defender. It is obvious when you watch him. If the metrics conclude otherwise, there is an issue with the methodology. Sports. They aren't ALL math, even though like you, I kinda want them to be.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 3, 2019 9:33:19 GMT -5
Someone would really need to explain to me how Bradley is rated -7 DRS and Devers is -2 DRS. Bradley has basically a league average Fielding percentage, Devers is well below average. One error to nine errors. Now Devers has better range numbers, but with DRS those are measured in putouts and assists. So in small sample sizes if you get a high number of chances it can greatly influence those numbers. It's one of the main reasons why they say they don't tell you much in small sample sizes. Nevermind the human error as Humans still collect the data with DRS at every game right?
Nevermind didn't the same thing happen with Bradley last year? While he's not playing great, I also don't see one of the worst defenders in Baseball either, not even close. Those are Hanley level numbers and he's not even close to being that bad!
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Post by James Dunne on May 3, 2019 9:48:17 GMT -5
The thing with Bradley is that if his defense has backed up at all then it's a problem, right? Like, he's always been playable, even during his slumps, because his defense is straight-up outstanding. But if he's just, like, an above average defender, then it's a lot tougher to ride out the slumps. It's too early to read too much into defensive stats, but I'm to the point where I'm concerned.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 3, 2019 9:57:36 GMT -5
The thing with Bradley is that if his defense has backed up at all then it's a problem, right? Like, he's always been playable, even during his slumps, because his defense is straight-up outstanding. But if he's just, like, an above average defender, then it's a lot tougher to ride out the slumps. It's too early to read too much into defensive stats, but I'm to the point where I'm concerned. I think that's why it's (to me) hardly even a question about whether you extend him, even looking beyond his annual slump. If that defense declines somewhat the bat isn't there, even when you balance out his hot streaks with his cold slumps, to justify anything resembling big money or a long-term deal. Right now, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt defensively, although my eyes think he's a bit off defensively from the spectacular he has normally done. With the defensive numbers, it is a SSS, so it makes sense why those have to be taken with a grain of salt. All I know is that I hope JBJ figures it out again with the bat and is still gold glove caliber or well above average over the next two seasons and that Duran continues to rake, even when he inevitably gets promoted. I'm hoping his timeline syncs up with Bradley's departure. I do think that if Duran handles CF defensively reasonably well, he'll wind up in CF with Boston come 2021.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on May 3, 2019 10:16:07 GMT -5
JBJ and Nunez are a combined -2.0 WAR. I know Nunez has been out, just wanted emphasis how just two players combined have really hurt this team.
Steve Pearce is also -0.6.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 3, 2019 10:24:55 GMT -5
You really need a good 4th OF with Bradley, so you can platoon him when he goes ice cold like this. He's so streaky and those streaks last a long time.
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Post by huskies15 on May 3, 2019 10:30:18 GMT -5
The last few games it has seemed like CHavis has missed a lot of very hittable pitches. Plenty of middle middle pitches going by without any damage.
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Post by cheers on May 3, 2019 12:24:23 GMT -5
The last few games it has seemed like CHavis has missed a lot of very hittable pitches. Plenty of middle middle pitches going by without any damage. Kid is going to have some ups and downs. He has 130 games of AA/AAA/MLB ball. That isn't much. If he can hold a .750 OPS this season while not sucking on defense, that is a total victory, IMO. I'm fairly confident he can?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 3, 2019 12:28:20 GMT -5
You really need a good 4th OF with Bradley, so you can platoon him when he goes ice cold like this. He's so streaky and those streaks last a long time. Everyone needs a better 4th outfielder than the Red Sox have.
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Post by jimed14 on May 3, 2019 13:44:55 GMT -5
And yet JBJ has been the worst defender on the team by far and I bet you haven't noticed. Using the current defensive metrics to evaluate defenders is not at all different from using ERA to judge the quality of relievers. Devers is a consistently not-good defender. It is obvious when you watch him. Bradley, while he has a gaffe from time to time, is clearly a pretty-good defender. It is obvious when you watch him. If the metrics conclude otherwise, there is an issue with the methodology. Sports. They aren't ALL math, even though like you, I kinda want them to be. I agree with you in that defensive metrics take about 2 full years to stabilize. However, the people that focus on Devers' errors while ignoring the plays he makes that other 3B wouldn't even reach are doing him a disservice. He saved a run last night with an incredible diving play that started a double play. A lot of other 3B that might not make errors as often wouldn't have made that play. Fielding is about 80% range, 10% errors and 10% arm, and most people only notice the errors and arm. Perfect example is Derek Jeter who didn't make many errors but had the range of a fence post.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 3, 2019 14:18:59 GMT -5
Using the current defensive metrics to evaluate defenders is not at all different from using ERA to judge the quality of relievers. Devers is a consistently not-good defender. It is obvious when you watch him. Bradley, while he has a gaffe from time to time, is clearly a pretty-good defender. It is obvious when you watch him. If the metrics conclude otherwise, there is an issue with the methodology. Sports. They aren't ALL math, even though like you, I kinda want them to be. I agree with you in that defensive metrics take about 2 full years to stabilize. Fielding is about 80% range, 10% errors and 10% arm, and most people only notice the errors and arm. Perfect example is Derek Jeter who didn't make many errors but had the range of a fence post. Over the past two years Devers has been a -13 and now a -2 DRS player. According to who's calculation is that correct about defensive metrics?
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Post by cheers on May 3, 2019 14:28:27 GMT -5
I concede that most of what you are saying is accurate jimed. However, when a guy is on pace to have almost 50 errors, you have to weight it more heavily than 10%.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 3, 2019 14:35:46 GMT -5
I concede that most of what you are saying is accurate jimed. However, when a guy is on pace to have almost 50 errors, you have to weight it more heavily than 10%. To be fair, he's on pace for 40 errors. I'm not even a big error guy either, but when it's happening at a astonishingly high rate like this, then everyone SHOULD take notice to it. It's a huge problem.
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Post by James Dunne on May 3, 2019 14:38:23 GMT -5
Marcus Walden is on pace for 20 wins.
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Post by cheers on May 3, 2019 14:40:28 GMT -5
Marcus Walden is on pace for 20 wins. I shall be blindly awarding him the Cy Young by mid-may. /s
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