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6/10-6/13 Red Sox vs. Rangers Series Thread
nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 12, 2019 9:23:11 GMT -5
They’re not going to do that but even if they wanted to... What contracts are you getting rid of that aren’t coming off the books next year already? I think is possible someone might be interested in Price again. After his post-season heroics and looking like his TB days this season I would think a contender might be interested in taking on the contract. JD Martinez has an opt-out. He's not a free agent. He could easily decide not to opt out. Price didn't. We don't know what teams think of Martinez and if Martinez feels like he could get more on the open market. He doesn't seem to hate it here either. We just assume he can/will get more. Betts is very highly paid despite only being in arbitration and his figure will bump up again next year and then will become a very expensive free agent. Eovaldi is rather pricey for his value, but I highly doubt anyone would claim him since he's currently hurt and didn't show much this year prior to injury. JBJ is making 8.5. He can go. If there's any remote interest in: Porcello, JBJ, Nunez, Holt, Pearce, Brewer, Braiser, Hembree, Poyner, Thornburg, Velazquez, Walden, Barnes (maybe try to get a little value back for him) they should pack their bags. Don't care if the return value is just a Fenway frank. Barnes may not be the ideal closer but he’s a good reliever. Jury is still out on Walden too. No point in trading relievers with control unless the return is solid.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 12, 2019 9:25:36 GMT -5
I think is possible someone might be interested in Price again. After his post-season heroics and looking like his TB days this season I would think a contender might be interested in taking on the contract. JD Martinez has an opt-out. He's not a free agent. He could easily decide not to opt out. Price didn't. We don't know what teams think of Martinez and if Martinez feels like he could get more on the open market. He doesn't seem to hate it here either. We just assume he can/will get more. Betts is very highly paid despite only being in arbitration and his figure will bump up again next year and then will become a very expensive free agent. Eovaldi is rather pricey for his value, but I highly doubt anyone would claim him since he's currently hurt and didn't show much this year prior to injury. JBJ is making 8.5. He can go. If there's any remote interest in: Porcello, JBJ, Nunez, Holt, Pearce, Brewer, Braiser, Hembree, Poyner, Thornburg, Velazquez, Walden, Barnes (maybe try to get a little value back for him) they should pack their bags. Don't care if the return value is just a Fenway frank. Barnes may not be the ideal closer but he’s a good reliever. Jury is still out on Walden too. No point in trading relievers with control unless the return is solid. Which is why I did put it on parenthesis. I don't know much about Walden other than he's 30. Barnes is a pretty good 7th inning option and the couple years of control is his biggest asset. I think you can replace him fairly easily, but no need unless you're getting a decent return.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 12, 2019 9:28:30 GMT -5
Off-topic, but it's funny/depressing thinking back on the days when Barnes was a top prospect and everyone thought he could be a very good number 2 and form a killer B rotation with Buchholz and Bard to now being considered a decent 7th inning option.
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Smittyw
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Post by Smittyw on Jun 12, 2019 9:47:23 GMT -5
I think it shows how spoiled we've been as a fan base that people want to rush into selling and tanking the instant we fall a couple games out of a wild card spot.
Looking at the talent on this team, I still see no reason to believe their best baseball isn't yet to come.
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Post by soxfan511 on Jun 12, 2019 9:51:08 GMT -5
Off-topic, but it's funny/depressing thinking back on the days when Barnes was a top prospect and everyone thought he could be a very good number 2 and form a killer B rotation with Buchholz and Bard to now being considered a decent 7th inning option. I just don’t understand why we struggle so hard to develop quality starting pitching while TB seems to do it every year
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 12, 2019 9:51:16 GMT -5
They’re not going to do that but even if they wanted to... What contracts are you getting rid of that aren’t coming off the books next year already? Porcello would bring back something in return, same with Moreland. JDM would net a good return too. If they do tank I would think that anyone with a substantial cost is on the table. Can we assume Porcello will get a Qualifying Offer this fall? And same for J.D., unless something precludes it.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 12, 2019 10:00:38 GMT -5
I think it shows how spoiled we've been as a fan base that people want to rush into selling and tanking the instant we fall a couple games out of a wild card spot. Looking at the talent on this team, I still see no reason to believe their best baseball isn't yet to come. It's a cumulation of things. They're only "in it" because of the expanded playoff format, the other teams they're competing against are all mediocre and they might just merely squeak in because they have a lot of bad teams left on their schedule. They've lost every single series against winning teams since the beginning of May. They're sub-.500 at home and exactly .500 at home. They have very glaring holes on their team from top to bottom and they don't inspire any confidence that they will be able to beat the class of the league (Yankees, Rays, Astros, and maybe even the Twins). So, while they could theoretically get in, where does that ultimately get you? A one-and-done? They are losing tiebreakers to virtually everyone and if they get swept by the Rangers they'll be 5 out of WC2 after losing 4 straight at home to them. Currently speaking, the WC standings are as such: Yankees/Rays (tied record) 5.0 games up on WC2 Rangers (WC2 lead) 3.0 games up on the next team. Indians 2.0 games out Red Sox 3.0 games out Oakland 3.0 games out Angels 4.0 games out White Sox 4.0 games out That's a crowded field to just get into the WC2 spot. You can't expect everyone to lose every night and the more the Red Sox lose, the harder it'll be to get out. They could get hot, but the probability someone else gets hot is also there. It won't do them any good if they fall behind Oakland and then Oakland goes on a 10 game tear. At some point you also have to say the sample size is enough to gauge what the team is. They're 34-34 with a .378 record against teams with a .500 record or better.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 12, 2019 10:02:45 GMT -5
Off-topic, but it's funny/depressing thinking back on the days when Barnes was a top prospect and everyone thought he could be a very good number 2 and form a killer B rotation with Buchholz and Bard to now being considered a decent 7th inning option. I just don’t understand why we struggle so hard to develop quality starting pitching while TB seems to do it every year Admittedly, I'm bi-polar on pitching prospects at this point. On one hand, I want to horde and collect them. On the other, I feel like we should just dump them all for proven value since we can't ever seem to develop one. Heck, E-Rod was suppose to be a very good one that we got back via trade and he's hopelessly mediocre.
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Smittyw
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Post by Smittyw on Jun 12, 2019 10:03:41 GMT -5
Also, can someone explain why a lot of people seem almost to take it for granted that JDM will opt out? All of the factors that made free agency such an arduous process for him last time are still present, only he'll be two years older now and (though I fully expect him to go on a monster tear at some point) currently having a lesser year than his 2017-18 standard...not to mention that his time as even a viable part-time outfielder would seem to be coming to an end. He'll be 32 at the end of this season, and after his first go-around, I doubt he's under the impression that some massive payday is waiting for him if he goes back to the open market.
The Red Sox have seemed inclined to leave the ball in his court, indicating that they aren't overly concerned, either. Maybe some additional money, an extra year, or whatever can be thrown his way if necessary to make both sides happy and ensure he sticks around. But I think you have to assume he's part of the team's plans beyond 2019 until proven otherwise.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 12, 2019 10:04:18 GMT -5
Porcello would bring back something in return, same with Moreland. JDM would net a good return too. If they do tank I would think that anyone with a substantial cost is on the table. Can we assume Porcello will get a Qualifying Offer this fall? And same for J.D., unless something precludes it. I believe you would get a pick for both. Would Porcello wait until mid-season to sign a deal like Keuchel though? Is a draft pick worth JD Martinez if you don't plan to re-up him?
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 12, 2019 10:06:57 GMT -5
Porcello probably accepts a QO if offered, which might not be a horrible outcome for either side.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 12, 2019 10:07:35 GMT -5
Would I bet my life-savings on it? No, of course not. It's just what he has been. Just as much as Sale has been a pitcher who has faded at the end of the year. Betts is entering 2020 in a bit of a lose-lose situation. If he performs like it's 2018 then he continues the narrative. If he "struggles" then this becomes more of a reputation of who he is as a hitter. Someone capable of putting up a big year, but ultimately is a .830 OPS hitter with great defense. I'm at the opposite end of this. Mookie is going to get his 300+ million unless he has a career threatening injury at this point. He's a consistently really good player at this point with consistently great defense. The Sox are the the ones that are in a lose-lose situation. He's easily worth 280-320 million over 9-10 years in free agency. If they give him the money, Betts probably declines defensively and becomes less valuable over the course of the contract. If they trade him within this season or the next season, they take a step back for the future. Betts really put the Sox in a tough situation when he turned down not one, but 2 extension offers and opted for the most money possible. Now they have to overpay him or trade him in the next 12-19 months. Pretty sweet how a substantial portion of sports fans now actively root for their team's profit margins over paying a generational talent what he's worth.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 12, 2019 10:10:35 GMT -5
I'm at the opposite end of this. Mookie is going to get his 300+ million unless he has a career threatening injury at this point. He's a consistently really good player at this point with consistently great defense. The Sox are the the ones that are in a lose-lose situation. He's easily worth 280-320 million over 9-10 years in free agency. If they give him the money, Betts probably declines defensively and becomes less valuable over the course of the contract. If they trade him within this season or the next season, they take a step back for the future. Betts really put the Sox in a tough situation when he turned down not one, but 2 extension offers and opted for the most money possible. Now they have to overpay him or trade him in the next 12-19 months. Pretty sweet how a substantial portion of sports fans now actively root for their team's profit margins over paying a generational talent what he's worth. It's realism. Until the Red Sox show they're willing to blow past the luxury tax on a consistent basis there is a mini-cap. Unless they're going to pay Betts and blow out some other parts to make space.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 12, 2019 10:16:06 GMT -5
The organization, the players are in my view too proud and talented to tank. We endure this season, the ups and downs, see who stays and goes and rev it all up again for next year.
I'd rather support this currently flawed and frustrating team nightly a zillion times than put them on ignore and move on.
Being a Sox fan since 67, I've endured lots. This really is a good spot to be in!
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 12, 2019 10:16:06 GMT -5
Pretty sweet how a substantial portion of sports fans now actively root for their team's profit margins over paying a generational talent what he's worth. It's realism. Until the Red Sox show they're willing to blow past the luxury tax on a consistent basis there is a mini-cap. Unless they're going to pay Betts and blow out some other parts to make space. So your complaint should be with the Red Sox for not paying the tax, not with Betts for not giving billionaires a discount.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 12, 2019 10:19:03 GMT -5
Which is why I did put it on parenthesis. I don't know much about Walden other than he's 30. Barnes is a pretty good 7th inning option and the couple years of control is his biggest asset. I think you can replace him fairly easily, but no need unless you're getting a decent return. If he were replaceable, we'd have three of him. The fact that he's far and away our best reliever is all the indication you need to know that's not the case. He's also making $1.6M when his value is closer to $16M. Absolutely no way he should be traded. If they do "rebuild" it's not going to be an Astros style tank for 3 years, they'll be back in contention next year. The current cornerstone of the bullpen shouldn't be going anywhere in that situation. I wouldn't say his value is close to 16 million at all. The reason we're not likely to see Eovaldi in the pen is because he makes 17 million, unless injuries force the issue. They could have had two of them if they signed Adam Ottavino. I would say Barnes is worth maybe 5-7 million on the open market, my bet is closer to 5.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 12, 2019 10:22:12 GMT -5
It's realism. Until the Red Sox show they're willing to blow past the luxury tax on a consistent basis there is a mini-cap. Unless they're going to pay Betts and blow out some other parts to make space. So your complaint should be with the Red Sox for not paying the tax, not with Betts for not giving billionaires a discount. I don't have a complaint with either. It's a, "it is what it is" situation. I would love for the Sox to spend $400 million on the team. Until the team shows they are willing to do so they aren't going to stay over the luxury tax. The Yankees aren't even willing to go past the tax by much. Betts deserves his money. I don't think his money is within the Red Sox budget.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 12, 2019 10:32:19 GMT -5
The organization, the players are in my view too proud and talented to tank. We endure this season, the ups and downs, see who stays and goes and rev it all up again for next year. I'd rather support this currently flawed and frustrating team nightly a zillion times than put them on ignore and move on. Being a Sox fan since 67, I've endured lots. This really is a good spot to be in! Exactly. The 2019 version of this team is highly disappointing and quite aggravating. It's obvious the roster has guys on it that you'd rather they not. Still, improving the bench and getting a reliever shouldn't cost the team the farm. There is still 94 games to play. That's still nearly 60% of the schedule. The delusions of winning 98 - 100 games are unrealistic. The expectation of 1st place makes little sense. The possibility of grabbing the 2nd Wild Card is reasonably to highly probable. Winning the Wild Card game is a coin toss, but if they win - they're on equal footing with the other 3 teams. Does that mean I'd expect them to beat NYY or Houston? No. But if the team is there, they have a chance. Perhaps by then, the offense will stop squandering as much as it has, and maybe will get a few well timed basehits. Maybe the Sox can use the starters as they did last year and maybe they'll get more out of Chris Sale in the post-season this time around. It's not that hard for me to believe the Sox could go 57-37 or something like that for the remainder of the season. If they did they'd wind up with 91 wins, which would probably do the trick. I had thought they'd win 93 games and the longer the mediocrity goes on the tougher even that task becomes. But again, look at the roster - and don't compare it to NYY, Houston, or TB, because they don't matter as far as the WC2 spot goes. I know the Sox are making the Rangers and Indians look great, but they're really not great teams. The Red Sox are at their worst right now. I know I sound like a broken record, but they will play better. I would think eventually if JDM's back is ok, he'll pick up the pace. I think Mookie eventually will pick up the pace. Devers and Bogaerts are fine as is. Benintendi will pick up the pace, and I think they'll get better production out of 1b and CF as the season goes along. Their production out of catching is fine and I think Holt will be useful at 2b along with Chavis. Sale and Price are key. If one of them goes down then it's not that difficult to see them miss the playoffs. None of the other 2nd wild card contenders have Sale and Price topping their staff. Maybe even some day the Sox will actually score runs for Sale. This season can be salvaged. It's not hopeless as far as getting to the post-season. If it's one and done, so be it. The core is still young enough and in place for 2020. They'll need a starter to replace Porcello and better starting pitching depth, and a high leverage reliever. And the biggest thing, the players need to start playing better.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 12, 2019 10:35:02 GMT -5
Also, I'm a bit of a conspiracy theorist, but I wonder if there's some sort of gentleman's agreement about the luxury tax. Like, "you can go over and pay penalties, but we really want parity and if you continue to abuse and go over then we'll start looking more into a hard cap". Its also been a nice excuse to slow the growth of players contracts.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 12, 2019 10:46:37 GMT -5
It's realism. Until the Red Sox show they're willing to blow past the luxury tax on a consistent basis there is a mini-cap. Unless they're going to pay Betts and blow out some other parts to make space. So your complaint should be with the Red Sox for not paying the tax, not with Betts for not giving billionaires a discount. You know how people always ask why players go for the highest offer, when the extra ten or twenty million won't make a real difference in their standard of living? How much do people think signing Betts to a $350m extension would effect John Henry's standard of living? Also, I'm a bit of a conspiracy theorist, but I wonder if there's some sort of gentleman's agreement about the luxury tax. There is. Like, "you can go over and pay penalties, but we really want parity and if you continue to abuse and go over then we'll start looking more into a hard cap". Its also been a nice excuse to slow the growth of players contracts. Money. They really want money.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Jun 12, 2019 10:58:17 GMT -5
keep cycling and recycling players who are of no help to this team
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 12, 2019 11:03:43 GMT -5
I wouldn't say his value is close to 16 million at all. The reason we're not likely to see Eovaldi in the pen is because he makes 17 million, unless injuries force the issue. They could have had two of them if they signed Adam Ottavino. I would say Barnes is worth maybe 5-7 million on the open market, my bet is closer to 5. Closer, meaning I'd take the over on the average of those two numbers - $8.8M. Point is you can't trade a guy like that when Ottavino (who is a decent comp) is getting paid 3/$27M on the open market. The fact that Barnes has proven able to pitch in Boston (so, so, so many examples of supposedly good relievers who can't) I don't see any responsible/realistic way you can trade him. He would be the last guy on my list to trade in any potential deal unless there was a package that made it worth it. He's not great, but he could be a part of a good bullpen if used in the 7th inning and is on the cheap.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 12, 2019 11:09:53 GMT -5
one of the bigger problems; a lot of guys who arguably shouldn't be here are getting actual playing time NYY facing the same situation and thriving. No excuses. NYY didn't go all out for any championships and trade away their prospect depth. They also didn't win any.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 12, 2019 11:10:16 GMT -5
So your complaint should be with the Red Sox for not paying the tax, not with Betts for not giving billionaires a discount. You know how people always ask why players go for the highest offer, when the extra ten or twenty million won't make a real difference in their standard of living? How much do people think signing Betts to a $350m extension would effect John Henry's standard of living? Also, I'm a bit of a conspiracy theorist, but I wonder if there's some sort of gentleman's agreement about the luxury tax. There is. Like, "you can go over and pay penalties, but we really want parity and if you continue to abuse and go over then we'll start looking more into a hard cap". Its also been a nice excuse to slow the growth of players contracts. Money. They really want money. I don't know who said it, I think Chris Rock, "You think Shaq is rich? Think about the guy paying Shaq". It's true, $10 million to Henry is like 10 cents. It's why I think the players should go after every dollar they can. I would never argue against that. Of course they want money, but a hard cap I think would secure their finances more than a soft luxury tax. For whatever reason, teams do not want to blow past the "cap" and stay there. Until someone does, there's a budget they have to work with which is going to be around 208 million next season.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 12, 2019 11:16:11 GMT -5
when i awoke....the Dire Wolf.....600 pounds of sin....was grinnin at my window....all I said was come on in....... Lol that's real deep Jerry. Pedro. Can't take credit. Words from a Dead song that speaks to a guy who is about to meet certain death at the hands of a beastly monster. A bit of a metaphor to the doom and gloom rheotoric that is happening around here (its ok....people give a hoot). I know our boys are gonna turn it around and we will be singing songs of glory before the season is over.
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