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6/10-6/13 Red Sox vs. Rangers Series Thread
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 10, 2019 21:57:28 GMT -5
I still wonder if 100 wins is still "doable?" It would take a pretty historic stretch of baseball, that 1% type of outcome that was last year that you cannot expect every year or most any year. What would that be? 66-29 which is almost .700 ball for almost 60% of the remaining season. Yeah, right. 93 wins would be 59-38 which is about .600 ball. That could still happen, but they kind of make it hard to believe.
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Post by dirtdog on Jun 10, 2019 22:02:24 GMT -5
My current guess - 85-88 wins, miss playoffs. The best indicator of future results is past results - we already have a big sample size. This is what the team is. Sure, anything is possible, but seeing the offense ignite and the bullpen right the ship is at this point a remote occurrence. Sounds about right, and dont throw tomatoes but I'd consider some selling if no major improvements at some point.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 10, 2019 22:02:45 GMT -5
I still wonder if 100 wins is still "doable?" It would take a pretty historic stretch of baseball, that 1% type of outcome that was last year that you cannot expect every year or most any year. What would that be? 66-29 which is almost .700 ball for almost 60% of the remaining season. Yeah, right. 93 wins would be 59-38 which is about .600 ball. That could still happen, but they kind of make it hard to believe. Ohh I was being completely sarcastic and calling out the ridiculous optimism takes this board has sometimes. It's nice to have a positive take, but c'mon man. Add- I called out the take at the time too, didn't just wait to do it just now either.
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Post by station13 on Jun 10, 2019 22:03:08 GMT -5
Thornburg is the highest paid reliever on the team. That says a lot.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 10, 2019 22:06:22 GMT -5
Quite a stat - this year, we are 27-3 when leading after 8 innings. Sounds good - but -
last year we were 97-1 when leading after 8 innings.
So - that is where the pen's weakness (and loss of Kimbrel) is showing.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 10, 2019 22:06:24 GMT -5
I still wonder if 100 wins is still "doable?" It would take a pretty historic stretch of baseball, that 1% type of outcome that was last year that you cannot expect every year or most any year. What would that be? 66-29 which is almost .700 ball for almost 60% of the remaining season. Yeah, right. 93 wins would be 59-38 which is about .600 ball. That could still happen, but they kind of make it hard to believe. Can't get to 93 if you can't beat 1 winning team.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 10, 2019 22:22:13 GMT -5
27th in MLB with RISP. Again - embarrassing.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 10, 2019 22:50:17 GMT -5
It would take a pretty historic stretch of baseball, that 1% type of outcome that was last year that you cannot expect every year or most any year. What would that be? 66-29 which is almost .700 ball for almost 60% of the remaining season. Yeah, right. 93 wins would be 59-38 which is about .600 ball. That could still happen, but they kind of make it hard to believe. Ohh I was being completely sarcastic and calling out the ridiculous optimism takes this board has sometimes. It's nice to have a positive take, but c'mon man. Add- I called out the take at the time too, didn't just wait to do it just now either. I know you were. And you're just a negative nellie if you cannot see that winning 100 games this season is completely doable.
Yeah, and I get called out for the "IT" factor, which is a BS but intangible thing that does happen. Last year the Sox found ways to win. If they were losing you knew to stick around and watch because nothing was off limits with the team. Yet the whole damn season I couldn't believe what my eyes were telling me. I kept waiting for the law of averages to kick in, sort of the way I'm doing now thinking that this dreadful season will get better. Honestly, I still had memories of the 18-1 Patriots in my head. Everything they did that year was so damn perfect - at least until the final minute and I worried our Sox would have the same type of issue, especially with the rugged teams they were facing in the post-season. It wasn't like the 98 Yankees who faced a bunch of creampuffs. And when the Sox blew Game 3 of the WS, I figured there it was, the thing that was going to derail the perfect season, and yet all it did was make them more determined than ever, and God Bless them, they did it! That was one super driven team. This year's team, you get that vibe that they're going to give up the killer hit with 2 outs instead of escape the jam, you feel that they're going to squander a big opportunity to score. Doesn't matter if it's Mookie or Devers at the plate. And you can't get mad at the individual player because usually it's one of the better ones, except when it's Leon or Nunez. And you know the bullpen won't hold that close game at the end, and you feel that you won't get the good E-Rod when you need it, and you know for no apparent reason they won't score for Sale. And on and on and on. I mean, if you can't feel that type of vibe this season, you have to be blind. Maybe some sort of event can change the momentum. Not advocating a brawl, but like we discussed yesterday, that brawl in 04 woke them up. It wasn't immediate and it took a huge trade but something felt different, and eventually the talent kicked in and it showed. The 2019 Sox need something to wake them up. Not sure what. They're pretty dead-ass.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 10, 2019 22:51:09 GMT -5
It would take a pretty historic stretch of baseball, that 1% type of outcome that was last year that you cannot expect every year or most any year. What would that be? 66-29 which is almost .700 ball for almost 60% of the remaining season. Yeah, right. 93 wins would be 59-38 which is about .600 ball. That could still happen, but they kind of make it hard to believe. Can't get to 93 if you can't beat 1 winning team. And everyday I insist they'll get there, you say they won't, I still believe they will, and every day you look more and more correct.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 10, 2019 23:27:53 GMT -5
I don't disagree on the second part, but the JDM was out for a week and they did face Tampa, who has the best ERA in the league. The offense needs to do a lot better, but you didn't lose this game because the offense stunk. You had a lead in the 9th in a predictable low scoring game with 2 really great starters on the mound. The bullpen blew it. Judge, Stanton, Andujar, Hicks, and Gregorius have been out most of the year and the Yankees as a team have a higher wRC+ than our mostly healthy team. Yea, we've lost JD for small spurts, but imagine taking something like JD, Mookie and Xander out of this lineup for most of the year. We all know we'd be screwed, but somehow the Yankees have lost something roughly equivalent to that and it's like it doesn't matter. Only conclusion is that our depth is crap, while the Yankees depth is really good. It shouldn't feel like the team is helpless to score without JD in there, yet it often does; not that he's having near his monster year of 2018 anyway. The Yankeee lineup is just better than the Sox lineup, too. They built a lineup that is suited for today's juiced game of baseballs. People don't want to admit that here, but it's the truth. The Sox are at their best when they hit line drives to all fields. The Yankees are at their best when they are bashing homeruns everywhere. Gary Sanchez is a catcher for them and he leads the AL in a lot of offensive categories. Luke Voit might be the second best hitting first baseman in MLB. Torres is just as good as Devers. They just have more bashers in that lineup, healthy or not.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 11, 2019 0:01:45 GMT -5
Judge, Stanton, Andujar, Hicks, and Gregorius have been out most of the year and the Yankees as a team have a higher wRC+ than our mostly healthy team. Yea, we've lost JD for small spurts, but imagine taking something like JD, Mookie and Xander out of this lineup for most of the year. We all know we'd be screwed, but somehow the Yankees have lost something roughly equivalent to that and it's like it doesn't matter. Only conclusion is that our depth is crap, while the Yankees depth is really good. It shouldn't feel like the team is helpless to score without JD in there, yet it often does; not that he's having near his monster year of 2018 anyway. The Yankeee lineup is just better than the Sox lineup, too. They built a lineup that is suited for today's juiced game of baseballs. People don't want to admit that here, but it's the truth. The Sox are at their best when they hit line drives to all fields. The Yankees are at their best when they are bashing homeruns everywhere. Gary Sanchez is a catcher for them and he leads the AL in a lot of offensive categories. Luke Voit might be the second best hitting first baseman in MLB. Torres is just as good as Devers. They just have more bashers in that lineup, healthy or not. The Red Sox have to hit like they did last year to be better offensively than the Yankees. The Yankees hit a million homers last year but they were incapable of hitting run scoring singles when they needed to - it was fitting that was the way their season ended. The Red Sox last year had multiple ways of scoring. They didn't hit as many homers but they could go deep. They successfully stole bases too. They didn't try to force homers. They'd take the hit if it was there. They got clutch hits, too. They basically kept the line moving. They're not doing it this year. They're stranding runners left and right, running foolishly at times, the stolen bases advantages aren't there. They're not necessarily as aggressive with hittable pitches the way they were last year when Cora was demanding that they don't do the automatic take on the first pitch if that pitch was a meatball. They're flat out not acting like they did last year. I think the inning that best illustrated last year's offense came in that first August game against the Yankees. Sox down 4-2. They score on an infield grounder turned hit by Benintendi when JBJ does this amazing dash home where he puts pressure on Andujar to make a perfect throw. He can't. JBJ does a perfect slide and he scores to make it 4-3. Then while pitching to Pearce, Holder forgets about Benintendi who steals him blind. This unnerves Holder who throws a meatball to Pearce who doesn't miss it at all. 6-4 Red Sox, and just to add insult to injury the Red Sox string another bunch of hits together while stealing another base (Kinsler I believe who came around to score on a bloop single). Before long it's 10-4 Red Sox, they've scored 8 runs in 1 inning and the Yankees are demoralized for the series. That was the Red Sox 2018 offense in a nutshell. The 2019 offense scores runs, but they're nothing like that at all.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 11, 2019 4:26:55 GMT -5
The Yankeee lineup is just better than the Sox lineup, too. They built a lineup that is suited for today's juiced game of baseballs. People don't want to admit that here, but it's the truth. The Sox are at their best when they hit line drives to all fields. The Yankees are at their best when they are bashing homeruns everywhere. Gary Sanchez is a catcher for them and he leads the AL in a lot of offensive categories. Luke Voit might be the second best hitting first baseman in MLB. Torres is just as good as Devers. They just have more bashers in that lineup, healthy or not. The Red Sox have to hit like they did last year to be better offensively than the Yankees. The Yankees hit a million homers last year but they were incapable of hitting run scoring singles when they needed to - it was fitting that was the way their season ended. The Red Sox last year had multiple ways of scoring. They didn't hit as many homers but they could go deep. They successfully stole bases too. They didn't try to force homers. They'd take the hit if it was there. They got clutch hits, too. They basically kept the line moving. They're not doing it this year. They're stranding runners left and right, running foolishly at times, the stolen bases advantages aren't there. They're not necessarily as aggressive with hittable pitches the way they were last year when Cora was demanding that they don't do the automatic take on the first pitch if that pitch was a meatball. They're flat out not acting like they did last year. I think the inning that best illustrated last year's offense came in that first August game against the Yankees. Sox down 4-2. They score on an infield grounder turned hit by Benintendi when JBJ does this amazing dash home where he puts pressure on Andujar to make a perfect throw. He can't. JBJ does a perfect slide and he scores to make it 4-3. Then while pitching to Pearce, Holder forgets about Benintendi who steals him blind. This unnerves Holder who throws a meatball to Pearce who doesn't miss it at all. 6-4 Red Sox, and just to add insult to injury the Red Sox string another bunch of hits together while stealing another base (Kinsler I believe who came around to score on a bloop single). Before long it's 10-4 Red Sox, they've scored 8 runs in 1 inning and the Yankees are demoralized for the series. That was the Red Sox 2018 offense in a nutshell. The 2019 offense scores runs, but they're nothing like that at all. I just think it's hard to repeat what the Sox did last year because a lot of it was unsustainable. They can't be THIS bad with RISP, but it's hard to be that good in 2018. There's probably medium in there where the Sox true talent lies. OTOH, the Yankees lineup is better at the top of the lineup the way it's currently constructed. DJ Lemahieu and his OBP of .367 is a perfect table setter for all the power the Yankees have. They didn't have anything like that last year. Luke Voit and his .379 OBP has been hitting 2nd this year all year mostly. They really didn't have that last year either. Sanchez was half the hitter he is now and they have a full year of Torres now. Once Judge and Stanton get back, the strikeouts will go way back up, but they will have more chances to go deep with more runners on base, unlike last year. It's a really good, annoying lineup that's hard to pitch to. The Sox have a great top 5 lineup too, but JDM is missing games, Betts is regressing a bit, JBJ is JBJ, Benny is having a down year. The only 2 players who have improved are Devers and Vazquez from last year really. The Sox best strength is not striking out and hitting line drives. That can be dangerous if you're putting the perfect amount of pressure on the other team, but I don't think it is as reliable as power. Nothing replaces OPS in the boxscore and I think it is really that simple.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 11, 2019 4:40:44 GMT -5
Darwinzon comfirmed tomorrow.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 11, 2019 5:59:13 GMT -5
2019 is not 2018. It's that simple.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 11, 2019 6:54:08 GMT -5
2019 is not 2018. It's that simple. If we can sign Mookie and JD, if JD doesn't have a debilitating structural issue with his back, if Devers is for real, if Beni progresses to average or better, not backslides, if JBJ returns from OZ with Wonderboy, if we add 2 top performing bullpen arms (one a power lefty), if Marco owns 2b, if Chavis can plug his caverns waist high and up with more than double-bubble, if we can find a reliably dominant 3rd starter, if our draft and international signings this year and next are remarkably good, well then, we'll all have a very fine Christmas in 2020. That's a lot of packages from Santa.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 11, 2019 7:47:07 GMT -5
Some of the depth problems right now make it absolutely clear that they are paying a price for their 2016-2018 run right now. Frustrating as it is at the moment, I'll take it. They'd be better in 2019 off with Logan Allen, Shaun Anderson, Steven Nogosek and a couple others of those types, but that's part of the game. They made win-now trades and they won because of it.
Adding to that frustration even more is that the core has been excellent. Not 2018 excellent, I'd put their six best players (Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Martinez, Sale, and Price) against any other team's. They just don't have the resources to fill out the roster right now. It sucks, but it's part of the price they paid to average 98 wins over three years and peak with a 108 win season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 11, 2019 8:18:04 GMT -5
Some of the depth problems right now make it absolutely clear that they are paying a price for their 2016-2018 run right now. Frustrating as it is at the moment, I'll take it. They'd be better in 2019 off with Logan Allen, Shaun Anderson, Steven Nogosek and a couple others of those types, but that's part of the game. They made win-now trades and they won because of it. Adding to that frustration even more is that the core has been excellent. Not 2018 excellent, I'd put their six best players (Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Martinez, Sale, and Price) against any other team's. They just don't have the resources to fill out the roster right now. It sucks, but it's part of the price they paid to average 98 wins over three years and peak with a 108 win season. It's true. Theoretically you would rather that they don't trade one year for another and have a longer sustained run of excellent, like the Dodgers, rather than put all your eggs in a 2 or 3 year window, but given the results, and as annoying as this season is, I wouldn't trade places with the Dodgers. They've had their noses pressed up against the Championship glass for quite awhile now with nothing to show for it. Meanwhile the 2018 Championship flag flies forever. I will tell you this - if the Red Sox aren't going to be champs in 2019, then I have no problem rooting for the Dodgers to finally break through. Dave Roberts is an easy guy to root for. You'd like to see a team with sustained year in and year out excellence finally get the big reward. I wouldn't hope for them to become baseball's version of the 1990s Buffalo Bills. And truthfully, I don't feel that the Sox window is really closing. I think the core is young enough that if they can fill in the depth behind them adequately enough and if they just have a different kind of year than they're having now - doesn't have to be 2018 ridiculously good, but they play baseball the way they're capable of playing baseball, then the Sox should be right there. I don't think now that the window is going to slam shut, particularly if they find a way to keep JDM (assuming a better back) and Betts going forward. They kept Sale and Bogaerts, so they have shots going forward, which is why I push back against the "break the team up" kind of stuff. I just don't see them being this mediocre next year for a 2nd year in a row with the talent they have.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 11, 2019 8:24:19 GMT -5
Nothing stirs up the hornet's nest like a blown save. Every time. Better days ahead brothers....you can count on it.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 11, 2019 8:31:36 GMT -5
It's definitely not closing. Their offensive core is back for another year, they're going to have money to spend, and the farm system is ahead of where it was a year ago. Right before the 2018 draft, (when Dalbec was slumping like hell, Chavis was suspended, and everyone else was getting hurt) was without question the lowest point I can remember the system being. Look at the current top three prospects--two weren't in the system yet, and on the other we were starting to get questions about whether he should covert to pitching. I'm hoping they can get things together and make a run, of course. But if they don't? I just want to see them be run well and enjoy the players I've watched develop. The Red Sox paid a price for winning. Nathan Eovaldi is one of the reasons that the 2018 Red Sox were the best baseball team this century, and Jalen Beeks is one of the reasons Tampa is better than Boston right now. I have trouble being upset about that.
The one big gripe I have with the 2019 team is the "last in, first out" style of roster management. Colten Brewer, whose stuff is interesting, is not a major league pitcher right now. Being in majors may be actively harming his development. He seems to be up because he won the job in spring training -- Like he ended up in line ahead of other dudes so he's still holding that place in line. Eduardo Nunez has been prettay, prettay bad this year. If you're going to piecemeal together the back end of the roster you have to manage it actively or it kills you.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 11, 2019 8:42:19 GMT -5
Nothing stirs up the hornet's nest like a blown save. Every time. Better days ahead brothers....you can count on it. Along with a squanderiffic offense, too.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 11, 2019 8:42:32 GMT -5
I find it kind of mystifying that people consider the 2019 Red Sox to be a completely distinct entity from the 2018 team despite the fact that it's all the same dudes. Like people argued with such great conviction that last year's postseason run proved this team's superiority to the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers, they could not have possibly lost those series, but now those same people are convinced that the 2019 team will never win a series against a quality opponent again. It's the same team!
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 11, 2019 9:00:35 GMT -5
Thornburg is the highest paid reliever on the team. That says a lot. Panda is the highest paid infielder on the team. That says a lot.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 11, 2019 9:26:37 GMT -5
I find it kind of mystifying that people consider the 2019 Red Sox to be a completely distinct entity from the 2018 team despite the fact that it's all the same dudes. Like people argued with such great conviction that last year's postseason run proved this team's superiority to the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers, they could not have possibly lost those series, but now those same people are convinced that the 2019 team will never win a series against a quality opponent again. It's the same team! Same team (mostly) but very different performances. Top of the range outcome versus toward the bottom of the range outcome.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 11, 2019 9:36:21 GMT -5
I find it kind of mystifying that people consider the 2019 Red Sox to be a completely distinct entity from the 2018 team despite the fact that it's all the same dudes. Like people argued with such great conviction that last year's postseason run proved this team's superiority to the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers, they could not have possibly lost those series, but now those same people are convinced that the 2019 team will never win a series against a quality opponent again. It's the same team! Same team (mostly) but very different performances. Top of the range outcome versus toward the bottom of the range outcome. I don't agree with that at all. Bogaerts, Devers, and Price, three main pieces of their core, have been better. The catching situation has been better. Second base has been mathematically better (though most of that value came in Chavis's first three weeks in the majors). They've been a lot worse at the margins. The problem is, other than "they shouldn't play Nunez" I don't see a whole lot of ways they could've been better than they are there. Johnson, Vazquez, and Wright were worth a combined 4.8 bWAR last year, while this year they're at -0.5. Those three were kind of supposed to be the depth to get the team through the first part of the season while they worked the starting rotation back in, and that has absolutely not happened. That's partially bad luck and partially a bad plan.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 11, 2019 9:53:55 GMT -5
Same team (mostly) but very different performances. Top of the range outcome versus toward the bottom of the range outcome. I don't agree with that at all. Bogaerts, Devers, and Price, three main pieces of their core, have been better. The catching situation has been better. Second base has been mathematically better (though most of that value came in Chavis's first three weeks in the majors). They've been a lot worse at the margins. The problem is, other than "they shouldn't play Nunez" I don't see a whole lot of ways they could've been better than they are there. Johnson, Vazquez, and Wright were worth a combined 4.8 bWAR last year, while this year they're at -0.5. Those three were kind of supposed to be the depth to get the team through the first part of the season while they worked the starting rotation back in, and that has absolutely not happened. That's partially bad luck and partially a bad plan. That's kind of my point. They got a different performance out of catching than they did last year. Same players (minus Swihart). Yes, better in 2019, but different than 2018. Same story with 3b and to a degree the same story as 2b, although Chavis is a new face that wasn't there last year. Mookie Betts and JD Martinez have performed differently. Same people, different performance. They've been merely very good, rather than otherworldly. Sale's overall numbers are different than last year although he's trending back to what he was last season. He didn't have that hiccup at the beginning of the season. Johnson and Velazquez, as you point out, are different stories than last year. I'd say the one guy who is exactly the same as he was last year would be Xander. But it's mostly the same guys, but mostly different type of performances. And the timing of the performances have just been different, which is a random type of thing, the clutch hitting, getting the key outs. It's not really necessarily a skill thing, but a random variance type of thing. So you get mostly the same personnel, but a different range of outcomes and it feels very much like two very distinct teams.
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