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nomar
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Posts: 10,703
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Post by nomar on Jun 12, 2019 8:34:38 GMT -5
Atlanta is clearly going for it all this year and even with Keuchel, they need some help with Gausman/Folty pitching terribly and Soroka due for regression.
They have an embarrassment of riches in the minors for pitching. Kyle Wright got off to a rough start this year, but I’d buy low on him. Ian Anderson is in AA and is another pitcher with a high ceiling. I’d take either of those for Porcello. He’s useful at the MLB level so I doubt he’d be available but I’d throw Toussaint in that boat as well.
This team needs to add a young SP with upside. They can’t keep relying on free agency to fill their rotation with two giant contracts in the rotation and hopefully Mookie/JDM extensions.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 12, 2019 8:54:45 GMT -5
If Porcello is not traded, does he get a Qualifying Offer this fall?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,703
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Post by nomar on Jun 12, 2019 9:10:10 GMT -5
If Porcello is not traded, does he get a Qualifying Offer this fall? Depends on how he finishes the year IMO, but regardless you’re waiting a lot longer on a return that way. |
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jun 12, 2019 9:22:37 GMT -5
I was actually thinking the other day of how a Porcello trade might ultimately make sense come the deadline. Not sure Atlanta would be a fit, but if a team like SD got hot, and wanted to push for a spot, or the Twins, A's, and Rangers maintain their pace, I could see them needing/wanting a SP too. This would be optimal to ensure the Sox would get the best return possible, and possible multiple players, even w only 2 months of control.
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Post by jdb on Jun 12, 2019 9:58:11 GMT -5
He’d fit a lot of teams given the durability. Given the fact we are over the tax I’m guessing we could eat his whole salary to get a better prospect.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 12, 2019 14:43:00 GMT -5
You'd have to pay 75 percent of the contract in order to get a prospect back, but yeah I'm all for it at this point.
Porcello has been pitching like a 5th starter this year, so you're basically getting nothing for him.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,703
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Post by nomar on Jun 12, 2019 15:03:22 GMT -5
You'd have to pay 75 percent of the contract in order to get a prospect back, but yeah I'm all for it at this point. Porcello has been pitching like a 5th starter this year, so you're basically getting nothing for him. I’d eat the entire thing, the point is getting a good return. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 12, 2019 15:04:07 GMT -5
You'd have to pay 75 percent of the contract in order to get a prospect back, but yeah I'm all for it at this point. Porcello has been pitching like a 5th starter this year, so you're basically getting nothing for him. Take out the two first starts when none of our starters were ready and Porcello has eight quality starts out of eleven. Those 11 earned runs in like seven innings to start the year skew his numbers. You say we'll get nothing for him, but you wanted to trade Dalbec and Houck for Sanchez who has a much higher WHIP and FIP, while walking give guys per 9 innings. Yeah he has more team control, but he hasn't been a good pitcher in a long time and he's always injured. If you pay 75% of Porcello contract you should get a fairly good return and he'd look a lot better in those NL Parks than the AL East. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 12, 2019 15:37:31 GMT -5
You'd have to pay 75 percent of the contract in order to get a prospect back, but yeah I'm all for it at this point. Porcello has been pitching like a 5th starter this year, so you're basically getting nothing for him. Take out the two first starts when none of our starters were ready and Porcello has eight quality starts out of eleven. Those 11 earned runs in like seven innings to start the year skew his numbers. You say we'll get nothing for him, but you wanted to trade Dalbec and Houck for Sanchez who has a much higher WHIP and FIP, while walking give guys per 9 innings. Yeah he has more team control, but he hasn't been a good pitcher in a long time and he's always injured. If you pay 75% of Porcello contract you should get a fairly good return and he'd look a lot better in those NL Parks than the AL East. I certainly hope you're right, but you can't "take out his first two starts." He does this every other year where he pitches great and pitches like crap. His ERA, FIP, xFIP is all hovering around 5. He's been mediocre or crap or whatever nickname you want to put on it this year. I wanted Sanchez when the Sox were buying because he had 2 years of control after this year. He was worth a valuable prospect or two because of that fact alone. I doubt seriously they get something good for Porcello if he still has everything hovering around 5 ERA and FIP wise by July. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 12, 2019 16:11:24 GMT -5
Take out the two first starts when none of our starters were ready and Porcello has eight quality starts out of eleven. Those 11 earned runs in like seven innings to start the year skew his numbers. You say we'll get nothing for him, but you wanted to trade Dalbec and Houck for Sanchez who has a much higher WHIP and FIP, while walking give guys per 9 innings. Yeah he has more team control, but he hasn't been a good pitcher in a long time and he's always injured. If you pay 75% of Porcello contract you should get a fairly good return and he'd look a lot better in those NL Parks than the AL East. I certainly hope you're right, but you can't "take out his first two starts." He does this every other year where he pitches great and pitches like crap. His ERA, FIP, xFIP is all hovering around 5. He's been mediocre or crap or whatever nickname you want to put on it this year. I wanted Sanchez when the Sox were buying because he had 2 years of control after this year. He was worth a valuable prospect or two because of that fact alone. I doubt seriously they get something good for Porcello if he still has everything hovering around 5 ERA and FIP wise by July. We all agree the Red Sox didn't get the starters ready right? Like all five of them took two starts to look normal. For me that isn't the pitchers fault. So I'm going to treat those as spring training, which it was basically. In those two starts Porcello pitched 7 and 1/3 innings giving up 16 hits, 7 walks and 11 Earned runs. Those two starts kill his stats, like they would all be in the low fours like last year. Eight out of 11 starts as quality starts is really good. As long as that continues he'll have very good trade value and no one will care about his first two starts. Teams aren't trading for Porcello in April, but what he will do. Hasn't been great, but a solid #3 outside those two starts, #4 on a true Contender type team. I mean if you can get an arm like Houck for him that is a good return in my book. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 12, 2019 16:12:38 GMT -5
Teams don't care about past stats. They care about current ability and future projection.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,703
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Post by nomar on Jun 12, 2019 16:43:31 GMT -5
Teams don't care about past stats. They care about current ability and future projection. Peripherals aren’t terrible, and look at Sonny Gray back to his normal self in a Cincy after leaving the AL East. Porcello could easily be a 3 in the NL. |
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Post by telson13 on Jun 12, 2019 22:01:13 GMT -5
If the Sox could get one of Atlants’s 45+-55 FV arms (Anderson, Wright, Gohara, Wilson, Wentz being my prefs in order; I don’t think Anderson is much of a possibility, unless the Sox cover Porcello’s full salary and include someone going the other way), it would be a great move. Ideally they can just plug the guy into the 5 spot when Eovaldi comes back. With Porcello it’s basically a 1 WAR projection, so we’re talking $8-10M EV with his whole deal covered. Wright might be the best *reasonable* return given his struggles and the Braves’ needs. Anderson would be a coup. 20 and having success in AA. I still like Gohara’s talent but who knows what’s going on with his shoulder. Not likely he can step in. But LHPs who sit 95 with wipeout sliders aren’t very common.
I doubt Porcello gets a QO. Too expensive if he takes it and he’s way too likely to take it.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 12, 2019 22:24:47 GMT -5
Porcello to Atlanta for Wright would work.
Betts to San Diego for gore and Allen would work better.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 13, 2019 6:42:49 GMT -5
Problem I see with this thread is Dombrowski won't do the type of deals where he's dealing off veterans for younger talent, while competing. That's like a Cherrington type of thing.
The other problem is there are plenty of starters on the market in July-
Matthew Boyd
Marcus Stroman
Aaron Sanchez
Dylan Bundy
Sonny Gray
Joe Musgrove
Madison Bumgarner
Max Scherzer
Steven Matz
Noah Syndergaard
Zack Wheeler
Jason Vargas
Like I rattled 12 freaking names here. These are pitchers who are pitching on teams with losing records and teams who have a high probability of selling at the trade deadline. All but 2 is more cheaper on this list than Porcello (Sherzer, Gray). All but 2 have more team control than Porcello (Bumgardner, Vargas).
So please someone explain to me rationally why some team would give up anything for Rick freaking Porcello when there's 12 pitchers here who are better or similar to Porcello's talent level and most of these pitchers are better options for different reasons (age or talent or team control or salary)?
Add- These are the sellers right now to the teams who are probably out of it. There could be more teams like the Angels, Oakland, Texas, Arizona, St Louis, Colorado. All of these teams could add even more starters to the starting pitching market for selling off, if they play poorly the next 5-6 weeks.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 13, 2019 14:41:35 GMT -5
That isn't close to a list of names that are likely to be moved by the deadline. You are including a ton of guys that won't be moved, trying to back up your point we can't get anything for him.
I mean trading Porcello means your doing bad, that wasn't said but I think everyone agrees.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 13, 2019 14:45:59 GMT -5
That isn't close to a list of names that are likely to be moved by the deadline. You are including a ton of guys that won't be moved, trying to back up your point we can't get anything for him. I mean trading Porcello means your doing bad, that wasn't said but I think everyone agrees. All of these players could be moved at the deadline. All will be either coming towards the near end of their contracts or will be/already in the middle of arbitration. The Sox could use one of these guys, if they're still contending by late July. |
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Post by jdb on Jun 13, 2019 15:14:29 GMT -5
That isn't close to a list of names that are likely to be moved by the deadline. You are including a ton of guys that won't be moved, trying to back up your point we can't get anything for him. I mean trading Porcello means your doing bad, that wasn't said but I think everyone agrees. Listening to the guys on mlb radio it could be a SP sellers market. Agree a lot that list will not be mentioned. I’m curious about Strasbourg. He has an opt out right? |
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Post by telson13 on Jun 13, 2019 17:53:13 GMT -5
That isn't close to a list of names that are likely to be moved by the deadline. You are including a ton of guys that won't be moved, trying to back up your point we can't get anything for him. I mean trading Porcello means your doing bad, that wasn't said but I think everyone agrees. Listening to the guys on mlb radio it could be a SP sellers market. Agree a lot that list will not be mentioned. I’m curious about Strasbourg. He has an opt out right? No opt-outs, 7/175 with $10M signing bonus and so a $35M base for 2019 due to some funky deferments: www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/stephen-strasburg-6865/I’ve heard talk of Strasbourg being dealt; my guess is he’s probably available, but he’s got a $45M cap hit in his last year before UFA, which is problematic. He’s a reasonable alternative to Gerrit Cole though. |
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,703
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Post by nomar on Jun 14, 2019 7:46:24 GMT -5
Strasburg has only hit 150 innings twice in the past 5 seasons ans is 30 now. I wouldn't have interest in him personally.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 14, 2019 12:34:48 GMT -5
That isn't close to a list of names that are likely to be moved by the deadline. You are including a ton of guys that won't be moved, trying to back up your point we can't get anything for him. I mean trading Porcello means your doing bad, that wasn't said but I think everyone agrees. All of these players could be moved at the deadline. All will be either coming towards the near end of their contracts or will be/already in the middle of arbitration. The Sox could use one of these guys, if they're still contending by late July. Could be, but likely won't be also. Like the Mets aren't dealing four starters, that's crazy talk. Nevermind you're lumping in a ton of guys that will cost a fortune, with Porcello. Like if you want a #1 guy your not looking at Porcello, if you want a cost controlled guy your not looking at Porcello, he's you want a solid #3 that gives you innings and is rock solid, yet for a team like the Braves won't cost much. Looking at your list Porcello is the top guy for teams in the market for that type of pitcher. Which frankly is the type of trade teams don't mind making. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 7, 2019 12:17:15 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats
@redsoxstats
Porcello's first half:
99.2 IP, 111 H, 15 HR, 31 BB, 81 K
5.33 ERA, 5.19 xFIP, 4.53 FIP, 1.42 WHIP
Yeah, teams are lining up for this guy at the trade deadline.
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Post by jfbryant91 on Jul 18, 2019 11:43:22 GMT -5
If Porcello is not traded, does he get a Qualifying Offer this fall? I would offer him one if the season ended tomorrow. If he accepts, it would probably be a slight pay cut from his current salary. If he rejects the offer and signs with another team, we get a compensatory pick (assuming he doesn't pull a Kimbrel and hold out until June) and replace him with a cheaper FA. Based on his 2019 production, that shouldn't be difficult to do.
Personally, I'd like to see us sign Tanner Roark and/or Zach Wheeler this winter. Jordan Lyles would also be a solid candidate for a 1-2 year deal to shore up the back end of the rotation. Even if we do bring Porcello back, we shouldn't rule out an additional starter. The rotational depth chart behind Rodriguez, Eovaldi, and Porcello/TBD is unsettling at best.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 18, 2019 11:59:03 GMT -5
If Porcello is not traded, does he get a Qualifying Offer this fall? I would offer him one if the season ended tomorrow. If he accepts, it would probably be a slight pay cut from his current salary. If he rejects the offer and signs with another team, we get a compensatory pick (assuming he doesn't pull a Kimbrel and hold out until June) and replace him with a cheaper FA. Based on his 2019 production, that shouldn't be difficult to do.
Personally, I'd like to see us sign Tanner Roark and/or Zach Wheeler this winter. Jordan Lyles would also be a solid candidate for a 1-2 year deal to shore up the back end of the rotation. Even if we do bring Porcello back, we shouldn't rule out an additional starter. The rotational depth chart behind Rodriguez, Eovaldi, and Porcello/TBD is unsettling at best.
I don't see the Sox offering him a qualifying offer, I think he likely would accept it after the way the market for Keuchel ended up. |
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