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7/12-7/14 Red Sox vs. Dodgers Series Thread
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Post by kevfc89 on Jul 13, 2019 21:59:40 GMT -5
after last year, i would not have guessed that both Mookie and JD would have a sub-.900 OPS in the middle of July
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Post by station13 on Jul 13, 2019 22:09:50 GMT -5
This bullpen is a complete failure. They won't go anywhere with it.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 13, 2019 22:19:02 GMT -5
This bullpen is a complete failure. They won't go anywhere with it. Bullpen means jack crap when a good portion of your rotation stinks and a good majority of your lineup is having a terrible season.
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Post by hammerhead on Jul 13, 2019 22:42:26 GMT -5
I'd bet dollars to Bagels, to Donuts, to munchkins that Sale is hurt. I'd guess he has fraying, and or a partial tear in his rotator cuff. Shoulders are much more difficult and harder to diagnose than elbows these days, and it's a hard laboring career after a balky shoulder. Just ask Pedro. Sale will need time off, constant rehab and strengthening and then he will need to learn to be a crafty lefty topping out at 92mph...
Sorry, I just passed out and had that vision of the future... It happens when I see this bullpen barf all over their home field.
By the way... The sox lose Mookie in free agency and sign some guy who has a fishy last name... It was blurry, but that 🐟 guy looked pretty good in our colors
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 13, 2019 22:56:17 GMT -5
I'd bet dollars to Bagels, to Donuts, to munchkins that Sale is hurt. I'd guess he has fraying, and or a partial tear in his rotator cuff. Shoulders are much more difficult and harder to diagnose than elbows these days, and it's a hard laboring career after a balky shoulder. Just ask Pedro. Sale will need time off, constant rehab and strengthening and then he will need to learn to be a crafty lefty topping out at 92mph... Sorry, I just passed out and had that vision of the future... It happens when I see this bullpen barf all over their home field. By the way... The sox lose Mookie in free agency and sign some guy who has a fishy last name... It was blurry, but that 🐟 guy looked pretty good in our colors Trout signed an extension a while ago....
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 13, 2019 23:09:48 GMT -5
Sale's first 21 swings: 12 misses. His subsequent 24 swings: 2. The first pitch of the 4th and the 5th.
Also:
His first 15 swings: 3 fouls His subsequent 30: 15.
He looked great up to the point that he got two quick strikes on Austin Barnes. That's the first 15 swings. Barnes then fouled off three pitches before fanning swinging. You know you're headed south when you can't put away a guy that good.
Leading off the third, he got ahead of Taylor 1-2 on two swinging strikes. That's the first 21 swings.
So: dramatic decline in miss rate overall, and a dramatic decline within each of the last three innings of work.
That's a fatigue problem, and it's unlikely to be anything but arm, and most likely shoulder.
Elsewhere in the department of potential discouragement:
I don't worry about Wright because his first half-dozen or so outings when he comes off a layoff have often (always?) been bad.
I don't worry about Brasier, Brewer, or Velazquez, because they're ultimately ticketed for the minors (Cashner needs a spot by Tuesday, Eovaldi likely by the end of the week, and they'll likely call up Hernandez not long after that).
But Walden getting 0 misses on 14 swings, even after getting 7 days rest, is very worrisome. Between his struggles and the possibility (likelihood?) that Sale is going to need a rest period (which means Eovaldi or Wright to the rotation), the odds of adding a reliever go way up. Let's see:
You need 6 good relievers and ideally you have 7. You have 5 you expect to be able to count on in Barnes, Workman, Hembree, Taylor, and Hernandez.
Eovaldi or Wright seems likely to be needed as a starter.
Walden is iffy. Wright is not a sure thing if he stays in the pen. One of the 5 guys you expect to be good could get hurt or be mysteriously ineffective.
So: if Wright and Walden are good and no one gets hurt (including starts), you're obviously set. If one of those struggles or someone gets hurt, you think seriously about adding an arm. If they both struggle, or one does and there's an injury, you're definitely adding one.
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Post by hammerhead on Jul 14, 2019 0:26:11 GMT -5
I'd bet dollars to Bagels, to Donuts, to munchkins that Sale is hurt. I'd guess he has fraying, and or a partial tear in his rotator cuff. Shoulders are much more difficult and harder to diagnose than elbows these days, and it's a hard laboring career after a balky shoulder. Just ask Pedro. Sale will need time off, constant rehab and strengthening and then he will need to learn to be a crafty lefty topping out at 92mph... Sorry, I just passed out and had that vision of the future... It happens when I see this bullpen barf all over their home field. By the way... The sox lose Mookie in free agency and sign some guy who has a fishy last name... It was blurry, but that 🐟 guy looked pretty good in our colors Trout signed an extension a while ago.... Uhhh, duh, who said anything about Trout? I was talking about the whirlwind comeback of Mike Carp.
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Post by patford on Jul 14, 2019 8:25:07 GMT -5
Sale's first 21 swings: 12 misses. His subsequent 24 swings: 2. The first pitch of the 4th and the 5th.
Also:
His first 15 swings: 3 fouls His subsequent 30: 15.
He looked great up to the point that he got two quick strikes on Austin Barnes. That's the first 15 swings. Barnes then fouled off three pitches before fanning swinging. You know you're headed south when you can't put away a guy that good.
Leading off the third, he got ahead of Taylor 1-2 on two swinging strikes. That's the first 21 swings.
So: dramatic decline in miss rate overall, and a dramatic decline within each of the last three innings of work.
That's a fatigue problem, and it's unlikely to be anything but arm, and most likely shoulder.
It also took Sale nearly 50 pitches to get through the first two innings. And in the first he immediately put the team in the hole giving up a run with two outs. The Sox should attempt to trade Sale. His salary is out of line with his production and he's likely to break down with a major injury at any moment. It would be wise to move on from him even if the return wasn't that great just to get his contract off the books. Read more: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/5123/red-sox-dodgers-series-thread?page=10#ixzz5terGDBHX
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 14, 2019 8:58:50 GMT -5
Just a rough game. Looking at what went right - Xander's home run, Brock's hits. Period.
What went wrong - poor defense, poor base running, poor starting pitching, poor relief pitching, Wright's injury, horrible at bats by most of the line up. We've seen far too many of this type of game this year, and last year there were very few dumpster fire games.
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bosox
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Posts: 2,117
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Post by bosox on Jul 14, 2019 9:03:30 GMT -5
Trout signed an extension a while ago.... Uhhh, duh, who said anything about Trout? I was talking about the whirlwind comeback of Mike Carp. Not to be confused with Tim Salmon. I guess they could always bring up Cole Sturgeon.
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ericmvan
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Posts: 9,016
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 14, 2019 9:10:30 GMT -5
Sale had a .298 xwOBA last night, which, though not Chris Sale-like, is better than average. If spread out equally over his whole appearance ...
But it was .163 over the first 2 innings, very much Chris Sale, and .391 afterwards, which is awful.
Maybe he should be the closer?
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Post by Guidas on Jul 14, 2019 9:32:39 GMT -5
Sale had a .298 xwOBA last night, which, though not Chris Sale-like, is better than average. If spread out equally over his whole appearance ... But it was .163 over the first 2 innings, very much Chris Sale, and .391 afterwards, which is awful. Maybe he should be the closer?
I have read that some pitchers are having real issues with the smoothness of the ball. I can only hope that's Sale's issue and its affecting his slider and location on the FB and he'll find a way to adjust (suntan lotion mixed with a little pine tar on the forearm that he can use to give him a touch between pitches to get a bit of tackiness or some version of this may get that done). Still, am I overreacting to think that their extension of him - which I still don't understand given how he finished last year and the injury concern with the shoulder, which are so different (repair-wise) than elbows - is already starting to look like the Josh Beckett extension?
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Post by patford on Jul 14, 2019 10:16:12 GMT -5
Sale had a .298 xwOBA last night, which, though not Chris Sale-like, is better than average. If spread out equally over his whole appearance ... But it was .163 over the first 2 innings, very much Chris Sale, and .391 afterwards, which is awful. Maybe he should be the closer?
I have read that some pitchers are having real issues with the smoothness of the ball. I can only hope that's Sale's issue and its affecting his slider and location on the FB and he'll find a way to adjust (suntan lotion mixed with a little pine tar on the forearm that he can use to give him a touch between pitches to get a bit of tackiness or some version of this may get that done). Still, am I overreacting to think that their extension of him - which I still don't understand given how he finished last year and the injury concern with the shoulder, which are so different (repair-wise) than elbows - is already starting to look like the Josh Beckett extension? They need to move him now while he still might be perceived as having some value. He's always had fatigue issues coupled with relatively minor injuries. That does not bode well going forward.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 14, 2019 10:34:26 GMT -5
I have read that some pitchers are having real issues with the smoothness of the ball. I can only hope that's Sale's issue and its affecting his slider and location on the FB and he'll find a way to adjust (suntan lotion mixed with a little pine tar on the forearm that he can use to give him a touch between pitches to get a bit of tackiness or some version of this may get that done). Still, am I overreacting to think that their extension of him - which I still don't understand given how he finished last year and the injury concern with the shoulder, which are so different (repair-wise) than elbows - is already starting to look like the Josh Beckett extension? They need to move him now while he still might be perceived as having some value. He's always had fatigue issues coupled with relatively minor injuries. That does not bode well going forward. This seems like a bit of an overreaction. I still think whatever his location issue is, it may be fixable. And how much "perceived value" do you think they'll get if they try to trade him right after giving him a 5 year, $145M deal? What they need to do is learn how to evaluate these tarnished diamonds better, as Houston has done (Morton, Verlander, Cole, Presley). In the MVP Machine they detail how Houston is so far advanced on the rest of the leagues using motion capture to evaluate spin rates and adjustments. When the tech became available, many teams bought one or two of these cameras for its evaluations. Houston bought 70 and has multiples in their parks at every level, and takes some on the road. They evaluate every pitch of every one of their own pitchers and their competition's pitchers, and look for pitchers who aren't maximizing their best stuff either through sequencing or using their better pitches more (and sometimes the pitchers don't ever know what their better pitches actually are, or how they can be more effective in different parts of the zone) and ditching completely other pitches that are less effective. That's exactly what they did with all four pitchers above. Also the authors indicate, though they couldn't assert because they had no outright proof, that Houston's pitchers have been able to improve spin-rates by using some sticky substance, that is not quite sticky enough to be detected by umpires, but enough so their pitchers can get just enough more grip on the ball to spin it more.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 14, 2019 10:39:00 GMT -5
I have read that some pitchers are having real issues with the smoothness of the ball. I can only hope that's Sale's issue and its affecting his slider and location on the FB and he'll find a way to adjust (suntan lotion mixed with a little pine tar on the forearm that he can use to give him a touch between pitches to get a bit of tackiness or some version of this may get that done). Still, am I overreacting to think that their extension of him - which I still don't understand given how he finished last year and the injury concern with the shoulder, which are so different (repair-wise) than elbows - is already starting to look like the Josh Beckett extension? They need to move him now while he still might be perceived as having some value. He's always had fatigue issues coupled with relatively minor injuries. That does not bode well going forward. You can't sell him now. Actively trying to trade Sale at this point would be an admission that they think he's broken.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2019 10:41:31 GMT -5
This bullpen is a complete failure. They won't go anywhere with it. Bullpen means jack crap when a good portion of your rotation stinks and a good majority of your lineup is having a terrible season. They're 2nd in runs scored in the majors (exactly one run behind the Twins). Pretty remarkable feat considering most of their hitters are having a terrible season! Also they're 16-8 in their last 24 games. 44-29 in their last 73, a 98-win pace. But the bullpen is absolutely terrifying.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 14, 2019 11:01:38 GMT -5
Bullpen means jack crap when a good portion of your rotation stinks and a good majority of your lineup is having a terrible season. They're 2nd in runs scored in the majors (exactly one run behind the Twins). Pretty remarkable feat considering most of their hitters are having a terrible season! Also they're 16-8 in their last 24 games. 44-29 in their last 73, a 98-win pace. But the bullpen is absolutely terrifying. The lineup is brilliant. Even with JDM and Mookie not being MVP level the rest of the lineup has picked up the slack. Christian Vazquez, the revival of JBJ, and the much needed surprise of Michael Chavis have really saved this team. That, and the leap that Devers and Xander have made. Their starting pitching is mediocre and their bullpen is a dumpster fire. They've been healthy with their key players and it there's no real reason to expect them to get injured, but it is slightly lucky they haven't gotten any freak accidents.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 14, 2019 11:39:45 GMT -5
Sale had a .298 xwOBA last night, which, though not Chris Sale-like, is better than average. If spread out equally over his whole appearance ... But it was .163 over the first 2 innings, very much Chris Sale, and .391 afterwards, which is awful. Maybe he should be the closer?
I have read that some pitchers are having real issues with the smoothness of the ball. I can only hope that's Sale's issue and its affecting his slider and location on the FB and he'll find a way to adjust (suntan lotion mixed with a little pine tar on the forearm that he can use to give him a touch between pitches to get a bit of tackiness or some version of this may get that done). Still, am I overreacting to think that their extension of him - which I still don't understand given how he finished last year and the injury concern with the shoulder, which are so different (repair-wise) than elbows - is already starting to look like the Josh Beckett extension? Did they change the ball sometime between June 15 and June 21? (Honest question; maybe they did.) Because he was completely himself for his last 9 1/2 starts up until that point.
If the ball got even smoother at that point, it will show up in Statcast data ... that can be looked into.
A grip problem also doesn;t explain why he was completely himself for 2 innings last night and then melted down.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 14, 2019 11:54:34 GMT -5
Sale had a .298 xwOBA last night, which, though not Chris Sale-like, is better than average. If spread out equally over his whole appearance ... But it was .163 over the first 2 innings, very much Chris Sale, and .391 afterwards, which is awful. Maybe he should be the closer?
Or maybe he needs an opener?
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Post by Guidas on Jul 14, 2019 11:59:03 GMT -5
I have read that some pitchers are having real issues with the smoothness of the ball. I can only hope that's Sale's issue and its affecting his slider and location on the FB and he'll find a way to adjust (suntan lotion mixed with a little pine tar on the forearm that he can use to give him a touch between pitches to get a bit of tackiness or some version of this may get that done). Still, am I overreacting to think that their extension of him - which I still don't understand given how he finished last year and the injury concern with the shoulder, which are so different (repair-wise) than elbows - is already starting to look like the Josh Beckett extension? Did they change the ball sometime between June 15 and June 21? (Honest question; maybe they did.) Because he was completely himself for his last 9 1/2 starts up until that point. If the ball got even smoother at that point, it will show up in Statcast data ... that can be looked into. A grip problem also doesn;t explain why he was completely himself for 2 innings last night and then melted down.
Agree with all of this, and I have no knowledge of the balls, although did read the piece by the astrophysicist on the ball. Rawlings changed the drying process from air dried to heat lamp drying which she believes is creating the much smoother surface. I just know that Verlander, Cole and Syndergaard have complained about the smoothness of the balls. And I know that pitchers say the better the grip they get, the better their control. I think a lot some of the problem with Sale getting hit is on location and sequencing. I haven't yet looked it up, but he seems to be using the slider less, and I wonder if it's because guys are recognizing it sooner or just waiting on the FB.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 14, 2019 15:25:23 GMT -5
That is my impression as well, that he doesn't have the command he's had armed hitters are getting longer at bats. I haven't checked on that but it would be worth a look.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 14, 2019 16:13:19 GMT -5
And..... Stephen Wright to the IL. That lasted 2 mins.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 14, 2019 16:28:02 GMT -5
And..... Stephen Wright to the IL. That lasted 2 mins. Big toe contusion
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 14, 2019 17:13:02 GMT -5
This bullpen is a complete failure. They won't go anywhere with it. Bullpen means jack crap when a good portion of your rotation stinks and a good majority of your lineup is having a terrible season.
Umm...how do you figure?
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Post by soxjim on Jul 14, 2019 17:15:08 GMT -5
Did they change the ball sometime between June 15 and June 21? (Honest question; maybe they did.) Because he was completely himself for his last 9 1/2 starts up until that point. If the ball got even smoother at that point, it will show up in Statcast data ... that can be looked into. A grip problem also doesn;t explain why he was completely himself for 2 innings last night and then melted down.
Agree with all of this, and I have no knowledge of the balls, although did read the piece by the astrophysicist on the ball. Rawlings changed the drying process from air dried to heat lamp drying which she believes is creating the much smoother surface. I just know that Verlander, Cole and Syndergaard have complained about the smoothness of the balls. And I know that pitchers say the better the grip they get, the better their control. I think a lot some of the problem with Sale getting hit is on location and sequencing. I haven't yet looked it up, but he seems to be using the slider less, and I wonder if it's because guys are recognizing it sooner or just waiting on the FB. They said last night Turner hit a 91 mph fastball. I don't know if they were right. But I believe when Sale 1st came on I think he was hitting 96-97 consistently. Is it that much this year?
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