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Post by stevedillard on Nov 4, 2019 18:13:21 GMT -5
So, no market for him. I wonder if that changes as age 33, and 34 come. I suppose if he destroys next year, then he could get a four year deal rather than the remaining 2.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 4, 2019 18:23:41 GMT -5
but they weren't all that competitive last year. Surely next year could be, and we hope it to be different, but that isn't any guarantee. I will allow that this is part of the reason, but there were others also. Many guys have pointed out the possible NL DH, which makes total sense.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 4, 2019 18:23:48 GMT -5
Hope he comes to camp with a 1B Mitt.
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Post by Canseco on Nov 4, 2019 18:24:58 GMT -5
I wonder if there would be any interest in a trade...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 4, 2019 18:34:55 GMT -5
Wow. I was wrong. It made more sense for him to opt out next season than after this one although he'd be another year older.
Well I'm glad he's coming back. Now I just hope they don't trade him away.
This should make it more likely that Betts is dealt. I don't see how they don't get under the limit without dealing Betts away.
But here's hoping they don't and that Bloom gets really creative in filling out the remainder of the roster and finding his way under the limit (although frankly I couldn't care less if they don't get under the limit!)
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Post by kjkramer on Nov 4, 2019 18:54:56 GMT -5
Wow Ok Bloom has his work cut out for him now
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 4, 2019 19:06:20 GMT -5
I still wouldn't be surprised if he were dealt, but more likely Mookie is.
But if he isn't maybe that means that either David Price and/or Nate Eovaldi somehow get dealt. I'm sure JBJ would be a goner. Not sure how they'd get a replacement starting pitcher for Price. And they'd need a replacement OF for JBJ.
A lot of creativity will be needed but if it results in Mookie and JD being Red Sox in 2020 and possibly beyond I'm all for it!
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Post by manfred on Nov 4, 2019 20:27:05 GMT -5
Mixed feelings. Obviously guy is a great hitter and seems to be like a second hitting coach. But I worry this is it for Mookie. And that will make me cry.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Nov 4, 2019 22:13:14 GMT -5
Looks like Betts is the odd man out in this scenario with JD. Hopefully, Boston can deal Betts and a couple others in order to restock the farm system. You can't pay 'em all. Whether it's by mismanagement or intentional, Boston is in a jam, salary-wise.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 4, 2019 23:56:33 GMT -5
What a shame if Betts can't be signed because of a failure to address the payroll problems. Talents like Mookie are not developed often and management should have done all it could to nurture and protect this asset for the organization.
It looks like Bradley, Jr. is going to be sacrificed in order to reach some level below the salary cap. His bat can be replaced, but not his glove.
Well, at least the fans have a few World Championships to celebrate.
Sigh.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 5, 2019 0:04:46 GMT -5
There is no planet in the universe where, if forced to trade either Mookie Betts or J.D. Martinez, you trade Mookie Betts. In his two years with the Red Sox, JDM has averaged 1.10 Win Probability Added per 650 PA as a DH.
That's a figure that would have ranked 107th out of 248 in MLB over the last 2 years (minimum 650 PA).
He's a legitimately great hitter, almost certainly the second best pure hitter in MLB after Mike Trout. BUT ... - He's a subpar defender
- Like a lot of guys, he hits much less well as a DH than as a position player
- He has the biggest negative clutch differential in MLB, very likely because he's relatively ordinary against elite late-inning relievers
Mookie Betts isn't as great a hitter. But he's still among the top 15 best, he's a brilliant defender, and is among the leaders in positive clutch differential. Let's add Clutch Differential in wins, 2017-2019, to fWAR and create a leaderboard for fWAR per 650 PA (minimum 1000 PA). That measures how actually valuable everyone has been the last few years (with the obvious caveat about measuring defensive value), on a per-game basis. I'll go down as far as JDM. (I have no idea how this will turn out as I type this.) And it's way worse than I thought. The positional adjustment for DH is too big, so I've listed him twice.
Name True Win Rate Mike Trout 8.6 Christ. Yelich 7.7 Mookie Betts 7.7 Matt Chapman 7.0 Max Muncy 6.9 Anthony Rendon 6.5 Alex Bregman 6.4 J.T. Realmuto 6.1 Aaron Hicks 5.9 Ronald Acuna 5.8 Cody Bellinger 5.8 Aaron Judge 5.6 Bryce Harper 5.4 Corey Seager 5.4 Nolan Arenado 5.3 Matt Olson 5.3 Xander Bogaerts 5.2 Didi Gregorius 5.2 Francis. Lindor 5.2 Andrel. Simmons 5.1 Freddie Freeman 5.0 Jose Ramirez 5.0 Jed Lowrie 4.9 Juan Soto 4.8 Josh Donaldson 4.8 Trea Turner 4.7 Anthony Rizzo 4.7 Micha. Conforto 4.7 Chris Taylor 4.6 George Springer 4.6 Brandon Nimmo 4.5 Javier Baez 4.4 Jean Segura 4.4 Pa. Goldschmidt 4.4 Gianca. Stanton 4.3 Brett Gardner 4.3 Yoan Moncada 4.3 Jose Altuve 4.2 Tommy Pham 4.2 Marcus Semien 4.2 Micha. Brantley 4.2 Justin Turner 4.2 Yasmani Grandal 4.2 Kris Bryant 4.2 Kolten Wong 4.2 Marwin Gonzalez 4.2 Austin Hedges 4.1 Eugenio Suarez 4.1 Adam Frazier 4.1 Kyle Seager 4.0 Brian Anderson 4.0 Carlos Correa 4.0 Starling Marte 4.0 Mike Zunino 3.9 Ozzie Albies 3.9 Mitch Haniger 3.9 Nelson Cruz 3.8 Kevin Kiermaier 3.8 Enri. Hernandez 3.7 Robinson Cano 3.7 Max Kepler 3.7 Manny Machado 3.7 JDM with DH+ 3.7 Ketel Marte 3.6 Jarrod Dyson 3.6 Eric Thames 3.6 Paul DeJong 3.5 Matt Carpenter 3.5 Daniel Descalso 3.5 Gleyber Torres 3.5 Juricks. Profar 3.5 Marcell Ozuna 3.4 Lorenzo Cain 3.4 Jake Lamb 3.4 Dexter Fowler 3.3 Jorge Polanco 3.3 Andr. McCutchen 3.2 Buster Posey 3.2 Whit Merrifield 3.2 David Peralta 3.1 Kole Calhoun 3.1 Ben Gamel 3.1 Johan Camargo 3.1 Neil Walker 3.1 Mark Canha 3.1 A.J. Pollock 3.1 DJ LeMahieu 3.1 Gregory Polanco 3.1 Ian Happ 3.1 Christ. Vazquez 3.1 Josh Reddick 3.1 Joe Mauer 3.0 Jose Martinez 3.0 Hunter Pence 3.0 Justin Upton 2.9 Nic Castellanos 2.9 Jose Iglesias 2.9 Jose Abreu 2.9 Trevor Story 2.9 Travis Shaw 2.8 Rafael Devers 2.8 David Freese 2.8 Ender Inciarte 2.8 And. Benintendi 2.8 Joc Pederson 2.7 J.D. Martinez 2.7
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 5, 2019 7:39:53 GMT -5
IF!! the Sox truly want/need to get under the 208 cap then JD needs to be traded. Being reasonable about it means you look at what you need to replace by trading anyone else. The offense definitely takes a hit losing him but is still pretty strong w.o. him. Trading anyone else has a replacement cost that either negates the savings or creates a hole that is most likely worse than losing JD. The ONLY reason you trade Mookie is if you feel very strongly that he doesn't truly want to stay in Boston. This has been my position all along but Erics analysis above certainly helps in coming to this conclusion.
I do wonder about how this played out behind closed doors as JD must have considered being traded vs opting out and hitting FA. As far as trade value goes I do think it is there for a number of reasons with the QO compensation being one of them.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Nov 5, 2019 11:04:26 GMT -5
What a shame if Betts can't be signed because of a failure to address the payroll problems. I don't get why it's so hard for people to understand that this is not the case. The Red Sox will gladly give Betts the second highest contract in baseball history, he won't accept it, it seems like they won't risk losing him for a 4th round pick. Trading players and making the payroll smaller is not going to increase their offer to Betts.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 5, 2019 11:32:55 GMT -5
This is how the Sox should treat the Mookie decision, IMO. Offer him the max that you would be willing to pay for a 10 year deal now. If he doesn't take it then you get as much as you can for him. If you turn it into a business decision like that you are maximizing an asset period and Mookie is a rare asset that you would love to have but you can't lose for nothing. Now tell me I'm wrong and why.
If you put 10 years 300-330 million in front of him and he still says I want to go to FA doesn't that say your chances of signing him are slim?
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Post by ramireja on Nov 5, 2019 11:39:05 GMT -5
What a shame if Betts can't be signed because of a failure to address the payroll problems. I don't get why it's so hard for people to understand that this is not the case. The Red Sox will gladly give Betts the second highest contract in baseball history, he won't accept it, it seems like they won't risk losing him for a 4th round pick. Trading players and making the payroll smaller is not going to increase their offer to Betts. I disagree, at least partially. I mean, I do agree that losing Betts in 2020 for measly compensation is a factor. But I also think payroll is absolutely a factor. The owners aren't even shying away from saying it is, so how can you not take that seriously? Every team that has gone over the tax thresholds eventually reset their penalty level. How can you blame them? The penalties for staying above the threshold, and in particular, for being >$20M above the threshold, essentially rule out free agency as an aspect of team building once you figure in the premiums you need to pay on each incoming free agent. Thats not really sustainable. I do think the Sox would have been happy to extend Betts prior to this year...but they have unfortunately worked themselves into a situation where that's not possible right now unless Bloom can work some magic that I'm not seeing (e.g., somehow unload Price's contract w/ prospect?).
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Post by ortiz34 on Nov 1, 2020 10:47:41 GMT -5
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Post by unitspin on Nov 1, 2020 10:56:16 GMT -5
Id say the chances of him opting out of the last year of the deal are slim. Not with how things are shaping up in this market.
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Post by TheCerebral1 on Nov 1, 2020 11:28:46 GMT -5
Glad to have him back, with this season being as crazy as it was, he had a down year. He still can easily come in and double his production next year. Glad to have you here JD!
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Post by greenmonster on Jan 21, 2021 9:48:17 GMT -5
Sam Kennedy has already said that the Sox are building, not going for it. I'm just waiting for the Benintendi trade. Pay the entire salary, add Vazquez, pay his salary. Get a good package. The reason why I was bummed out to not get Yates is that his value could have been worth one top 100 prospect by the trade deadline. Maybe he preferred a team closer to winning in Toronto. The Sox are kind of stuck where they are until then. I do wonder wonder what kind of package Devers will be worth by the trade deadline or next off-season. The defense at third base is so questionable, but his bat should be worth a lot. You sign a Trevor Story next off-season, move Xander to third base (hopefully you get him to agree, why Cora is important here). You got a infield defense that all of a sudden should be solid. You can do this by keeping Devers and DHing him, too. The next year you got Casas close and up by mid 2022. Duran already up, Jeter Downs is probably up. All the arms of Houck, Mata, Seabold, Whitlock, maybe Ward up by mid 2022. You got to get the most for Benintendi and Vazquez this year. I hope Realmuto takes a contract that has a one year opt out too, so the Sox can really splurge next year, but that's wishful thinking. The talent in the lower minors is the Sox real strength, but that's going to take a really long time to wait. 2-4 years for most of them. I wonder if trading JD at the deadline might be another alternative. If he has a rebound and is being reasonably productive and the Sox find themselves out of contention at the trade deadline (likely) then a trade partner would be looking at 1/2 year of JD with the possibility of JD exercising his option for a total of 1 1/2 years. Is there anything effecting his option if he were to be traded? This would allow Devers to slide into the DH slot in favor of a better defensive arraingement.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 21, 2021 9:55:09 GMT -5
Sam Kennedy has already said that the Sox are building, not going for it. I'm just waiting for the Benintendi trade. Pay the entire salary, add Vazquez, pay his salary. Get a good package. The reason why I was bummed out to not get Yates is that his value could have been worth one top 100 prospect by the trade deadline. Maybe he preferred a team closer to winning in Toronto. The Sox are kind of stuck where they are until then. I do wonder wonder what kind of package Devers will be worth by the trade deadline or next off-season. The defense at third base is so questionable, but his bat should be worth a lot. You sign a Trevor Story next off-season, move Xander to third base (hopefully you get him to agree, why Cora is important here). You got a infield defense that all of a sudden should be solid. You can do this by keeping Devers and DHing him, too. The next year you got Casas close and up by mid 2022. Duran already up, Jeter Downs is probably up. All the arms of Houck, Mata, Seabold, Whitlock, maybe Ward up by mid 2022. You got to get the most for Benintendi and Vazquez this year. I hope Realmuto takes a contract that has a one year opt out too, so the Sox can really splurge next year, but that's wishful thinking. The talent in the lower minors is the Sox real strength, but that's going to take a really long time to wait. 2-4 years for most of them. I wonder if trading JD at the deadline might be another alternative. If he has a rebound and is being reasonably productive and the Sox find themselves out of contention at the trade deadline (likely) then a trade partner would be looking at 1/2 year of JD with the possibility of JD exercising his option for a total of 1 1/2 years. Is there anything effecting his option if he were to be traded? This would allow Devers to slide into the DH slot in favor of a better defensive arraingement. Yeah that should be the plan I imagine if the Sox don't ever want to deal Devers and keep him for his bat. JDM rebounding and getting dealt is key this season. I'm pretty sure he's opting out for 2022, but the Sox can kick in half the money and pay all of 2021 if he doesn't. I only posted the question, how much is Devers worth? Just to put it out there. I don't think it's going to happen, but the Sox need to find a better than average at best 3rd baseman if they really want to fix the pitching problems. That and a slow short stop leaves a lot of groundballs turning into singles and errors. They need a standout short stop defensively to cover some of that ground (Trevor Story), I think Xander would be fine at 3B if he was open to it.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 21, 2021 17:29:41 GMT -5
I wonder if trading JD at the deadline might be another alternative. If he has a rebound and is being reasonably productive and the Sox find themselves out of contention at the trade deadline (likely) then a trade partner would be looking at 1/2 year of JD with the possibility of JD exercising his option for a total of 1 1/2 years. Is there anything effecting his option if he were to be traded? This would allow Devers to slide into the DH slot in favor of a better defensive arraingement. Yeah that should be the plan I imagine if the Sox don't ever want to deal Devers and keep him for his bat. JDM rebounding and getting dealt is key this season. I'm pretty sure he's opting out for 2022, but the Sox can kick in half the money and pay all of 2021 if he doesn't. I only posted the question, how much is Devers worth? Just to put it out there. I don't think it's going to happen, but the Sox need to find a better than average at best 3rd baseman if they really want to fix the pitching problems. That and a slow short stop leaves a lot of groundballs turning into singles and errors. They need a standout short stop defensively to cover some of that ground (Trevor Story), I think Xander would be fine at 3B if he was open to it. Unless JD hits 50 HRs this year no team will offer more than the $19.35 million he is guarantee for next year, because he is a DH only!
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 21, 2021 17:35:59 GMT -5
Yeah that should be the plan I imagine if the Sox don't ever want to deal Devers and keep him for his bat. JDM rebounding and getting dealt is key this season. I'm pretty sure he's opting out for 2022, but the Sox can kick in half the money and pay all of 2021 if he doesn't. I only posted the question, how much is Devers worth? Just to put it out there. I don't think it's going to happen, but the Sox need to find a better than average at best 3rd baseman if they really want to fix the pitching problems. That and a slow short stop leaves a lot of groundballs turning into singles and errors. They need a standout short stop defensively to cover some of that ground (Trevor Story), I think Xander would be fine at 3B if he was open to it. Unless JD hits 50 HRs this year no team will offer more than the $19.35 million he is guarantee for next year, because he is a DH only! Yeah the Sox pay half, if he even opts in. Little chance he does opt in. The Sox pay for 2021 salary completely. There's value there.
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Post by manfred on Jan 21, 2021 17:39:04 GMT -5
Yeah that should be the plan I imagine if the Sox don't ever want to deal Devers and keep him for his bat. JDM rebounding and getting dealt is key this season. I'm pretty sure he's opting out for 2022, but the Sox can kick in half the money and pay all of 2021 if he doesn't. I only posted the question, how much is Devers worth? Just to put it out there. I don't think it's going to happen, but the Sox need to find a better than average at best 3rd baseman if they really want to fix the pitching problems. That and a slow short stop leaves a lot of groundballs turning into singles and errors. They need a standout short stop defensively to cover some of that ground (Trevor Story), I think Xander would be fine at 3B if he was open to it. Unless JD hits 50 HRs this year no team will offer more than the $19.35 million he is guarantee for next year, because he is a DH only! I wonder though if we are moving towards a universal DH. It still looks like they might in 2021, and then who knows? It would double the market.
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Post by fenwaymabe on Jan 21, 2021 18:01:41 GMT -5
I think that plus a monster season in 2021 is the only way JD opts out. I do expect him to rebound, but that's still a lot of money to turn your back on. I'm sure JD is paying attention to Marcell Ozuna's market because he is a DH in waiting himself. It's just hard to commit that much $$$ to someone who is a liability in the field.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 21, 2021 20:07:38 GMT -5
I do not believe JDM has any more opt-outs. I think they were '19 and '20.
EDIT: OK, looking at the reporting when he signed, he might.
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