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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 29, 2021 20:33:12 GMT -5
JD said the other day he was right in the middle on whether to opt out or not. I'm definitely rooting for him to opt out as I'd much rather they spread that money around to sure up other aspects of the team. He's still a solid hitter but he's shown signs of regression and isn't the same guy he was when they signed him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2021 20:36:04 GMT -5
I think he can still hit. Good offensive player, but I think he's going to opt out and Bloom won't shed a tear about it.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 29, 2021 21:06:41 GMT -5
I think he can still hit. Good offensive player, but I think he's going to opt out and Bloom won't shed a tear about it. Yea I agree he's still a solid bat and I wouldn't be upset if he didn't opt out as he can still be a good 5 hitter in my mind. That being said I'm still rooting for him to opt out.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2021 21:10:11 GMT -5
I think he can still hit. Good offensive player, but I think he's going to opt out and Bloom won't shed a tear about it. Yea I agree he's still a solid bat and I wouldn't be upset if he didn't opt out as he can still be a good 5 hitter in my mind. That being said I'm still rooting for him to opt out. They could bring back Schwarber to DH, that's really what he is.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 29, 2021 21:12:54 GMT -5
Yea I agree he's still a solid bat and I wouldn't be upset if he didn't opt out as he can still be a good 5 hitter in my mind. That being said I'm still rooting for him to opt out. They could bring back Schwarber to DH, that's really what he is. Yes if they want a DH only type of guy bring Schwarber back for what I would imagine to be cheaper than the 19.5 price tag of JD opting in. Schwarber also in my mind is a better hitter than JD at this stage. So all around much more preferable option in my mind.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 29, 2021 21:20:26 GMT -5
Couldn’t see Bloom paying $15-20 mil a year on a 4-5 year deal for a DH, which is prob what Schwarber gets.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 29, 2021 21:27:20 GMT -5
Couldn’t see Bloom paying $15-20 mil a year on a 4-5 year deal for a DH, which is prob what Schwarber gets. You may be right, we'll see but I guess I'd just be surprised if Schwarber managed a 4-5 year deal in the 15-20 range. I think 15 a year is the max he'll get as things currently stand. Now if the NL adds the DH this offseason then yea all bets are off. Looking around at the highest payroll AL teams the Yankees and angels have a dh already. Doesn't leave a whole lot left to geta bidding war going. That's also another reason I don't see JD opting out. I know Nelson Cruz is older but he had to settle for a 1 year 13 mil deal while putting up numbers very much in line with JD.
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Post by tyler3 on Sept 29, 2021 23:43:30 GMT -5
If he opted out could we put a qualifying offer on him. MLB rumors chat guy said yes… and I thought that was not the case. But since he has never been tagged with one..is that really the case?
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Post by tyler3 on Sept 29, 2021 23:51:30 GMT -5
From mlb rumors chat earlier today, “ JD Martinez 2:27 Am I eligible for a QO? Steve Adams 2:27 If he opts out, yes, he would be.” I know he was traded right before free agency, and you can’t issue a QO for a guy you traded for mid season when the off season comes around. I just assumed a legit free agent contract would negate the QO. And I know it can only be attached to a guy once…but…could they really give JD a QO if he opts out? And if so… if they followed the same line with Erod, is actually possible ( though unlikely) that Chaim could have 2 comp picks plus the Jud Fabian pick for 2022… No…..
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 30, 2021 10:57:17 GMT -5
I'm paying Martinez, his age should limit the length of the contract. He’s tied for 4th in bwar and is second in OPS. Now if someone goes crazy, yeah I'll walk away.
Most of Pedroia money comes off next year and one more year of Price, nevermind the small stuff like Benintendi. So you'll have money.
Erod is the harder choice, yet again I would like to bring him back unless the deal is crazy.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 30, 2021 11:31:40 GMT -5
I'm paying Martinez, his age should limit the length of the contract. He’s tied for 4th in bwar and is second in OPS. Now if someone goes crazy, yeah I'll walk away. Most of Pedroia money comes off next year and one more year of Price, nevermind the small stuff like Benintendi. So you'll have money. Erod is the harder choice, yet again I would like to bring him back unless the deal is crazy. JD can still hit I won't dispute that but if he opts out it'll be because he's looking to sign a contract for more total dollars than the 19ish he's slated to make next year. Personally I hope they let him go if he opts out figuring he's going to want 3 years 45 million. Would that kill the Red sox payroll? No I don't think so but I do think they can spend that money in better ways than an aging slugger. Edit: if he does opt out and they want to allocate 15ish in AAV to a slugger currently on the team to be a DH only guy I hope they choose schwarber.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 30, 2021 12:08:57 GMT -5
I'm paying Martinez, his age should limit the length of the contract. He’s tied for 4th in bwar and is second in OPS. Now if someone goes crazy, yeah I'll walk away. Most of Pedroia money comes off next year and one more year of Price, nevermind the small stuff like Benintendi. So you'll have money. Erod is the harder choice, yet again I would like to bring him back unless the deal is crazy. JD can still hit I won't dispute that but if he opts out it'll be because he's looking to sign a contract for more total dollars than the 19ish he's slated to make next year. Personally I hope they let him go if he opts out figuring he's going to want 3 years 45 million. Would that kill the Red sox payroll? No I don't think so but I do think they can spend that money in better ways than an aging slugger. Edit: if he does opt out and they want to allocate 15ish in AAV to a slugger currently on the team to be a DH only guy I hope they choose schwarber. Yeah exactly. If JD opts in, thats fine, he’ll probably be worth the 20M. If not, they can QO him, take the draft pick and then spend that money on another FA, thereby spending the draft pick on a better signing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 30, 2021 13:28:11 GMT -5
From mlb rumors chat earlier today, “ JD Martinez 2:27 Am I eligible for a QO? Steve Adams 2:27 If he opts out, yes, he would be.” I know he was traded right before free agency, and you can’t issue a QO for a guy you traded for mid season when the off season comes around. I just assumed a legit free agent contract would negate the QO. And I know it can only be attached to a guy once…but…could they really give JD a QO if he opts out? And if so… if they followed the same line with Erod, is actually possible ( though unlikely) that Chaim could have 2 comp picks plus the Jud Fabian pick for 2022… No….. You're overthinking it. You can give a QO to any player unless 1) he was traded during that season, or 2) he's received a QO before. That's it. Opt out, declined club option, declined player option, etc., doesn't matter.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 30, 2021 13:58:51 GMT -5
I'm paying Martinez, his age should limit the length of the contract. He’s tied for 4th in bwar and is second in OPS. Now if someone goes crazy, yeah I'll walk away. Most of Pedroia money comes off next year and one more year of Price, nevermind the small stuff like Benintendi. So you'll have money. Erod is the harder choice, yet again I would like to bring him back unless the deal is crazy. JD can still hit I won't dispute that but if he opts out it'll be because he's looking to sign a contract for more total dollars than the 19ish he's slated to make next year. Personally I hope they let him go if he opts out figuring he's going to want 3 years 45 million. Would that kill the Red sox payroll? No I don't think so but I do think they can spend that money in better ways than an aging slugger. Edit: if he does opt out and they want to allocate 15ish in AAV to a slugger currently on the team to be a DH only guy I hope they choose schwarber. I give Martinez 3 years 45 million in two seconds. How do you spend it better when he's 4th in bwar? No worries about Schwarber having a career year right before free agency? I mean his current .293 average is way above his career norm of .237. Martinez has a career. 290 average. I don't just want a slugging DH, I want a professional hitter.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 30, 2021 14:10:11 GMT -5
JD can still hit I won't dispute that but if he opts out it'll be because he's looking to sign a contract for more total dollars than the 19ish he's slated to make next year. Personally I hope they let him go if he opts out figuring he's going to want 3 years 45 million. Would that kill the Red sox payroll? No I don't think so but I do think they can spend that money in better ways than an aging slugger. Edit: if he does opt out and they want to allocate 15ish in AAV to a slugger currently on the team to be a DH only guy I hope they choose schwarber. I give Martinez 3 years 45 million in two seconds. How do you spend it better when he's 4th in bwar? No worries about Schwarber having a career year right before free agency? I mean his current .293 average is way above his career norm of .237. Martinez has a career. 290 average. I don't just want a slugging DH, I want a professional hitter. If they want to allocate the 19ish million from him leaving into 1 player. Maybe Kris Bryant to play 3rd base and move rafi to DH full time. I'm not sure though hard to say. I guess I just fear Martinez declining and not being worthy of being a full time DH by the time the 2nd and 3rd years come in that theoretical deal. Maybe he ages like Nelson Cruz though and maintains his production.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 30, 2021 14:11:26 GMT -5
JD can still hit I won't dispute that but if he opts out it'll be because he's looking to sign a contract for more total dollars than the 19ish he's slated to make next year. Personally I hope they let him go if he opts out figuring he's going to want 3 years 45 million. Would that kill the Red sox payroll? No I don't think so but I do think they can spend that money in better ways than an aging slugger. Edit: if he does opt out and they want to allocate 15ish in AAV to a slugger currently on the team to be a DH only guy I hope they choose schwarber. I give Martinez 3 years 45 million in two seconds. How do you spend it better when he's 4th in bwar? No worries about Schwarber having a career year right before free agency? I mean his current .293 average is way above his career norm of .237. Martinez has a career. 290 average. I don't just want a slugging DH, I want a professional hitter. The age difference is an enormous factor in that comparison. And Schwarber has looked a heck of a lot more like a "professional hitter" to me than Martinez. And Martinez has had really only one very good month since 2019. All this to say that I'm not too interested in simply looking at career averages if I'm trying to figure out how they perform over the next few years.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 30, 2021 14:52:02 GMT -5
I give Martinez 3 years 45 million in two seconds. How do you spend it better when he's 4th in bwar? No worries about Schwarber having a career year right before free agency? I mean his current .293 average is way above his career norm of .237. Martinez has a career. 290 average. I don't just want a slugging DH, I want a professional hitter. If they want to allocate the 19ish million from him leaving into 1 player. Maybe Kris Bryant to play 3rd base and move rafi to DH full time. I'm not sure though hard to say. I guess I just fear Martinez declining and not being worthy of being a full time DH by the time the 2nd and 3rd years come in that theoretical deal. Maybe he ages like Nelson Cruz though and maintains his production. You never fully know, yet elite DH types have some of the best aging curves. At three years 45 million that's a gamble I take. Kris Bryant likely cost much more and a bunch more years.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 30, 2021 14:57:55 GMT -5
If they want to allocate the 19ish million from him leaving into 1 player. Maybe Kris Bryant to play 3rd base and move rafi to DH full time. I'm not sure though hard to say. I guess I just fear Martinez declining and not being worthy of being a full time DH by the time the 2nd and 3rd years come in that theoretical deal. Maybe he ages like Nelson Cruz though and maintains his production. You never fully know, yet elite DH types have some of the best aging curves. At three years 45 million that's a gamble I take. Kris Bryant likely cost much more and a bunch more years. Bryant was just the first guy who popped in my head. He also seems like maybe a Bloom type with his ability to play all over the field. He's a guy I'd love to have but as with anyone the price has to be right. Anything north of say 5 years 125 and I'd hope they're out on him, if they're even in on him in the first place.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 30, 2021 15:19:25 GMT -5
I give Martinez 3 years 45 million in two seconds. How do you spend it better when he's 4th in bwar? No worries about Schwarber having a career year right before free agency? I mean his current .293 average is way above his career norm of .237. Martinez has a career. 290 average. I don't just want a slugging DH, I want a professional hitter. The age difference is an enormous factor in that comparison. And Schwarber has looked a heck of a lot more like a "professional hitter" to me than Martinez. And Martinez has had really only one very good month since 2019. All this to say that I'm not too interested in simply looking at career averages if I'm trying to figure out how they perform over the next few years. It's his first time doing that though and a very limited sample size. Maybe he's become a new hitter or maybe it's just a career year when he's a to be free agent. He's hitting. 265 this year, .253 before us and .293 with Sox. Before that his yearly averages were .188, .250, .238, .211 and .246 his rookie year. Crazy shit can happen, yet Schwarber becoming a true professional hitter that can hit anywhere near .293 going forward would be crazy extreme. Would you be calling him a professional hitter if he was hitting. 253 like he did for the first 72 games? It's not even just career averages, it's just a great 37 games, yet compare that to Martinez first 37 games. Also isn't age going to mean Martinez is cheaper and gets less years? If you say Martinez is around three years 45 million, what's Schwarber coming off a career best year getting? 5 years 85 million? Maybe my judgement is off because of how Ortiz could adjust and came back strong even when he seemed to be in major decline. Yet a lot of elite DH guys have aged very well. If I'm paying a DH big money, I need a hitter with a high average. I have big doubts that will be Schwarber going forward, yet I've been wrong before and certainly will be again.
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Post by tyler3 on Sept 30, 2021 17:05:34 GMT -5
From mlb rumors chat earlier today, “ JD Martinez 2:27 Am I eligible for a QO? Steve Adams 2:27 If he opts out, yes, he would be.” I know he was traded right before free agency, and you can’t issue a QO for a guy you traded for mid season when the off season comes around. I just assumed a legit free agent contract would negate the QO. And I know it can only be attached to a guy once…but…could they really give JD a QO if he opts out? And if so… if they followed the same line with Erod, is actually possible ( though unlikely) that Chaim could have 2 comp picks plus the Jud Fabian pick for 2022… No….. You're overthinking it. You can give a QO to any player unless 1) he was traded during that season, or 2) he's received a QO before. That's it. Opt out, declined club option, declined player option, etc., doesn't matter. So Mr. Hatfield if JD think he can do better than 1 year 19 million, say 2 years 35 million just for arguments sake. Why would he not opt out? He must know the desire for Chaim to get that extra pick is great so QO, he’ll have that in his back pocket… and he gets to see what’s out there knowing he has around 18 million guaranteed if he doesn’t like what teams say…may cost him a mil or so if comes back for the QO. From the Red Sox perspective why not tag him, if he goes you got 19 mil to spread around and a draft pick. If he stays youve saved a million or so. All this is predicated on JD thinking he could do better than 1 year 19 million and that the Red Sox will be done with him in a year regardless. If I’m JD I cash in on that big first half now.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 30, 2021 17:12:19 GMT -5
Assorted thoughts:
1) After the season he had and heading into a labor stoppage, not necessarily a given he does that well on this market. Remember, he needs to decide on the QO in 10 days.
2) Even if they get the universal DH in this CBA, when is it going to get signed? Is he going to have time this offseason to maximize his value compared to next offseason?
3) His 2021 wasn't THAT good, especially the way he tailed off (.269/.317/.474 since the ASB - you giving that guy $20M?).
4) There's no chance he accepts the QO given that he'll have just opted out of $19.3M or whatever his final season is, right? So if he opts out, you almost certainly offer it to him. However, that's another reason he might just stay - he's going to have the QO attached probably if he heads elsewhere and that'll affect his value. Maybe wait and see how it works in the next CBA.
I think when all is said and done he stays.
EDIT: Actually, maybe he opts out in order to accept the QO and then hit FA free of it next offseason? If it's for roughly the same price...
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 30, 2021 17:21:53 GMT -5
His performance this year is actually pretty close to his value. 2.8 fWAR, 8M a WAR on the open market, so that's 22M right there. It's front-loaded though per Chris's comment above, just 0.4 fWAR since the break.
With that said, I wouldn't feel comfortable giving him 20M a year going forward though as there's just not much upside left. I'd rather spread that money out on a few folks like Kiké/Renfroe/Marwin/etc. to see if we can get a breakout performance from one or two that gets us excess of 20M of value.
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Post by tyler3 on Sept 30, 2021 17:27:20 GMT -5
Assorted thoughts: 1) After the season he had and heading into a labor stoppage, not necessarily a given he does that well on this market. Remember, he needs to decide on the QO in 10 days. 2) Even if they get the universal DH in this CBA, when is it going to get signed? Is he going to have time this offseason to maximize his value compared to next offseason? 3) His 2021 wasn't THAT good, especially the way he tailed off (.269/.317/.474 since the ASB - you giving that guy $20M?). 4) There's no chance he accepts the QO given that he'll have just opted out of $19.3M or whatever his final season is, right? So if he opts out, you almost certainly offer it to him. However, that's another reason he might just stay - he's going to have the QO attached probably if he heads elsewhere and that'll affect his value. Maybe wait and see how it works in the next CBA. I think when all is said and done he stays. EDIT: Actually, maybe he opts out in order to accept the QO and then hit FA free of it next offseason? If it's for roughly the same price... Oh now that’s a thought.. get rid of the QO now…
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Post by tyler3 on Sept 30, 2021 17:36:55 GMT -5
His performance this year is actually pretty close to his value. 2.8 fWAR, 8M a WAR on the open market, so that's 22M right there. It's front-loaded though per Chris's comment above, just 0.4 fWAR since the break. With that said, I wouldn't feel comfortable giving him 20M a year going forward though as there's just not much upside left. I'd rather spread that money out on a few folks like Kiké/Renfroe/Marwin/etc. to see if we can get a breakout performance from one or two that gets us excess of 20M of value. But from JDs point of view you have to wonder if he’s thinking damn…crappy 2020, poor 2021 finish, maybe now is the chance to get that 3 year deal. Maybe not 20 million per but, say 40-45 over 3. If I’m him I’d do it. I’m not sure another year in Fenway with those fly balls dying in right center will be good for him.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Sept 30, 2021 17:39:51 GMT -5
I think he can still hit. Good offensive player, but I think he's going to opt out and Bloom won't shed a tear about it. If he does, neither will I, but I doubt he beats what he's making on the open market, even if the DH comes to the NL. His bat speed is down, so he's going to get more exposed to fastballs on the outer corner unless he finds himself again. Ok player who made himself a plus hitter for a good stretch, now is the time to walk away though. I'd rather have Schwarber/Dalbec getting AB's at DH and it's probably more cost effective as well to go that route. Tip my cap to him and his service to the team but hard pass on re-upping him if he opts out.
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