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Post by incandenza on Oct 10, 2021 12:09:38 GMT -5
My whole argument is built around aging curves, but you're not addressing that at all. The xwOBA/wOBA/wRC+ trajectories all tell a very consistent story with JDM (with only 2020* as the outlier): he's a once-elite hitter, who is now a good hitter, who would probably be less-than-good by the end of any 3-year deal.
Schwarber is also on a very typical aging curve, but he's 6 years younger, which means he'll probably be close to his peak for the next few years. You keep calling it a "career year" but every season has been a career year for him since 2018 (not counting 2020*) because he keeps getting better!
You want a bigger sample than just this season? Since the start of 2019, Schwarber has a 123 wRC+; JD Martinez, by contrast, has... a 124 wRC+. And Schwarber is 6 years younger. So again, it does not seem reasonable to me to predict that JDM will be the better hitter over the next 3 years.
There's slight improvements and then massive jumps. Take wOBA going from .357 to .392 is massive, if it was like .365 I'd be less worried about regression. You either see a career year or a new hitter. I don't think I've said Martinez will be the better hitter in three years. I'd bet on him being better next year and he will take less money and years to sign. If I'm going to bet on older players beating father time, former elite hitters at DH is one I'm betting on. I'd also be fine if Martinez is slightly below using something like OPS+ if he has a much higher average, compared to a lower average and higher slugging. I'm a fan of putting together hits, having a higher team average than just sluggers with low averages. Yeah, I guess my fundamental disagreement with you here is that I don't see Schwarber having a fluky career year; I see him continuing a gradual upward trajectory. A wOBA jump from .357 to .392 isn't that big a leap, and anyways:
1) If you just average those two you get .375, which is pretty damn good - better than JDM this season in fact (.364).
2) Even if you think this season is a complete fluke, in his .357 wOBA season he still had an .870 OPS, 119 wRC+, and 38 homers. Still pretty good!
3) You just dismissed xwOBA in the comment above, so maybe this won't matter to you, but Schwarber's xwOBA trend looks like less of a giant leap and more like a small step: .340, .347, .372, (.335), .396. It's true that some guys systematically underperform their xwOBA, but Schwarber never has by more than 15 points (not counting 2020). And this season he's 4 points below his xwOBA, another great reason to think it's not just a fluky career year.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 10, 2021 15:27:48 GMT -5
I'm confused how you can come to the conclusion that Schwarber is a completely different hitter while noting statcast for other players. If you sift through Schwarber's statistics on either baseballsavant or fangraphs, you'll see that between 2021 and his career averages, almost everything is identical - the consistency is actually quite amazing. Of the primary batting statistics, only his batting average is high this year (by .029 higher than career average) which is clearly driven by a higher BABIP (.032 higher than career average). The increased BABIP seems to be driven by his career high barrel/sweet spot numbers. Essentially he hit the ball at a good trajectory with good bat-speed at a higher rate than he ever has, so his batting average was .029 higher than his career batting average. None of us know if Schwarber will continue to be as good this year (or continue to improve) but given that this was his first full season of what is normally a player's peak years (27-31) and there should be optimism that he has made slight improvements. If you leave out the odd 2020 season, his 4/5 year xwOBA trajectory has been: .340, .347, .372, .396, which shows improvement each year. If the Sox could get Schwarber for something in the neighborhood of 4/85 (w/o opt-outs) then I would be ecstatic. I would also be ecstatic if Martinez would be willing to give up the last year of his deal at 19.3mil to take a 45/3 deal, but I find that unlikely as Martinez would only receive 25.7mil for adding 2 years to his contract - more likely he would want the 3/45 deal tacked onto the end of his current deal, and I would be a bit wary of that. I would also be happy if Martinez opts-in AND they give Schwarber a long-term contract - this would let them give Martinez rest days (old man can't step over 2nd base without an injury!), give the OFers rest days and let them hold off from rushing Casas to the majors (only suggesting this would be good for 1 year). My biggest issue with him is his average, if we're talking about him at DH. I want no part of 4 years 85 million. I hate expected wOBA, it was crazy with Bradley for years. His actual wOBA is .333, .343, .357 and .392 which shows you the massive jump this year. You going to like paying him over 20 million if his average goes back down and his wOBA is around .360? It's all how you project him going forward and that's one of the hardest things to do in Baseball. I understand that's your only issue - it's the only issue a person could have given that all other peripheral numbers are near-identical to his career averages. But I explained what lead to the career numbers and now it's on you to explain why you believe his trajectory, or the speed of the ball off the bat, will regress down to his previous career averages. I don't know what's going to happen, but a steady progression leading to a career year at the age of 28 is quite a good sign.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 11, 2021 12:06:33 GMT -5
There's slight improvements and then massive jumps. Take wOBA going from .357 to .392 is massive, if it was like .365 I'd be less worried about regression. You either see a career year or a new hitter. I don't think I've said Martinez will be the better hitter in three years. I'd bet on him being better next year and he will take less money and years to sign. If I'm going to bet on older players beating father time, former elite hitters at DH is one I'm betting on. I'd also be fine if Martinez is slightly below using something like OPS+ if he has a much higher average, compared to a lower average and higher slugging. I'm a fan of putting together hits, having a higher team average than just sluggers with low averages. Yeah, I guess my fundamental disagreement with you here is that I don't see Schwarber having a fluky career year; I see him continuing a gradual upward trajectory. A wOBA jump from .357 to .392 isn't that big a leap, and anyways:
1) If you just average those two you get .375, which is pretty damn good - better than JDM this season in fact (.364).
2) Even if you think this season is a complete fluke, in his .357 wOBA season he still had an .870 OPS, 119 wRC+, and 38 homers. Still pretty good!
3) You just dismissed xwOBA in the comment above, so maybe this won't matter to you, but Schwarber's xwOBA trend looks like less of a giant leap and more like a small step: .340, .347, .372, (.335), .396. It's true that some guys systematically underperform their xwOBA, but Schwarber never has by more than 15 points (not counting 2020). And this season he's 4 points below his xwOBA, another great reason to think it's not just a fluky career year.
I have to fundamentally disagree on that, adjust the games to equal and that difference basically results in double the bwar. He goes from 2 bwar to around 4 bwar. That's just massive, that's not a slight normal increase. That's he's twice the player value wise. He's a good slugger. He's a good slugger. I don't know how many times I have to say that. Like I said before, I'll take a little less slugging if there a huge difference in his average. I want an offense with power, yet also one that can string together hits, get walks and play old school baseball. I'm not paying a DH huge money if he can't have a good average. I'd rather take Dalbec and get him a RH hitting partner. Then spend the money on a more complete player Yes after years of the Bradley crap, I have serious issues with xwOBA. It's just batted ball data and it doesn't take into account the defense. With Bradley it was the shifts. You can't just use batted ball data and not adjust for the D. Bradley wasn't unlucky, he always hit the ball to one area and the D adjusted. He couldn't adjust like Papi did by learning to hit balls down the third base line. That data needs to take into account where the D is, you shouldn't just be using averages. So I certainly don't get using expected data versus actual wOBA which is an advanced stat already, yet actually based off of results.
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Post by jmei on Oct 11, 2021 13:50:46 GMT -5
“But he doesn’t hit for average” is not a hill anyone should be dying on in 2021. There are reasons to prefer Martinez over Schwarber. Batting average, when they hit for comparable OBP and SLG (and, depending on what time horizon you use, where Schwarber ranks better than Martinez in both), is not one of them.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 11, 2021 14:01:31 GMT -5
Yeah, I guess my fundamental disagreement with you here is that I don't see Schwarber having a fluky career year; I see him continuing a gradual upward trajectory. A wOBA jump from .357 to .392 isn't that big a leap, and anyways:
1) If you just average those two you get .375, which is pretty damn good - better than JDM this season in fact (.364).
2) Even if you think this season is a complete fluke, in his .357 wOBA season he still had an .870 OPS, 119 wRC+, and 38 homers. Still pretty good!
3) You just dismissed xwOBA in the comment above, so maybe this won't matter to you, but Schwarber's xwOBA trend looks like less of a giant leap and more like a small step: .340, .347, .372, (.335), .396. It's true that some guys systematically underperform their xwOBA, but Schwarber never has by more than 15 points (not counting 2020). And this season he's 4 points below his xwOBA, another great reason to think it's not just a fluky career year.
I have to fundamentally disagree on that, adjust the games to equal and that difference basically results in double the bwar. He goes from 2 bwar to around 4 bwar. That's just massive, that's not a slight normal increase. That's he's twice the player value wise. He's a good slugger. He's a good slugger. I don't know how many times I have to say that. Like I said before, I'll take a little less slugging if there a huge difference in his average. I want an offense with power, yet also one that can string together hits, get walks and play old school baseball. I'm not paying a DH huge money if he can't have a good average. I'd rather take Dalbec and get him a RH hitting partner. Then spend the money on a more complete player Yes after years of the Bradley crap, I have serious issues with xwOBA. It's just batted ball data and it doesn't take into account the defense. With Bradley it was the shifts. You can't just use batted ball data and not adjust for the D. Bradley wasn't unlucky, he always hit the ball to one area and the D adjusted. He couldn't adjust like Papi did by learning to hit balls down the third base line. That data needs to take into account where the D is, you shouldn't just be using averages. So I certainly don't get using expected data versus actual wOBA which is an advanced stat already, yet actually based off of results. Well I'm not gonna go in circles by asking you yet again to address my core contention. But I'll just say about Bradley: he outperformed his xwOBA every season of his career but two - 2018 and this season. So I'm not sure why you're citing this as a failure of xwOBA. (It's not a perfect metric - e.g., it underestimates Boagaerts consistently - but if you look at Schwarber's career he has come quite close to his xwOBA every year, with perhaps a slightly tendency toward underperformance. There's no reason to think that will be any different going forward.)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 11, 2021 19:21:54 GMT -5
Schwarber has had only one season with a higher on base and Slugging since 2015 his rookie year and it's this year. His second best year in 2019 is basically equal to Martinez this year, yet much less average. So I certainly didn't feel the need to 100% explain that, yet I'm not surprised that's where this has gone. I'm not going to like Martinez more if he has a .750 OPS because he has the higher average. Yet if it's close, with a big difference in the average, give me the higher average. I've said this before in this thread. I'd also point out that Martinez was better this year than Schwarber in 2019 when you adjust things using OPS+ 126 vs 122. Martinez also had 3 bwar compared to 2.3 for Schwarber. Think about that for a second. Even this year, Schwarber best yet, it's 3.2 bwar versus 3.0 bwar.
To touch on another topic, what is the average range for peak years now? I've seen people talking about Schwarber just entering his peak. Who knows everyone is different, yet on average hasn't that been trending younger since the end of the Steroid era? It used to be like 27/28 to 32/33, yet for most players those days are gone.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 11, 2021 23:34:01 GMT -5
Hell of a series on one ankle. Needed him
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 12, 2021 9:00:43 GMT -5
Hell of a series on one ankle. Needed him I think it was Frank Thomas who made a point after game2 of this series. He said, from his experience when a hitter has an sprained ankle (front foot) it can sometimes get the hitter into a hot streak. His reasoning was that the hitter is less likely to lunge his weight forward but instead keeps his weight back and puts them in a good hitting position.......This appears to be the case with JD as he was lunging forward and looking off balance during the last several weeks of the regular season, but not the case the last few games.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 1, 2021 11:37:01 GMT -5
Can we get confirmation that they can in fact place the qualifying offer on him if he opts out? I know Chris and Ian said so on the pod, but nobody in the media has brought up that option at all.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 1, 2021 12:37:05 GMT -5
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vokuhila
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Post by vokuhila on Nov 1, 2021 12:41:47 GMT -5
Can we get confirmation that they can in fact place the qualifying offer on him if he opts out? I know Chris and Ian said so on the pod, but nobody in the media has brought up that option at all. "Are Martinez and Schwarber eligible for qualifying offers if they opt out? — Kevin C via The Athletic app Schwarber is not eligible because he was traded midseason. Martinez would be eligible, but the qualifying offer this offseason is a one-year, $18.4 million deal, which is less than the one year, $19.375 million left on Martinez’s current contract. So it doesn’t seem like it would make sense to opt out then take the QO for less money." theathletic.com/2922689/2021/11/01/j-d-martinez-trade-scenarios-coaching-changes-where-kyle-schwarber-fits-red-sox-mailbag-part-1/?amp
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 1, 2021 12:45:40 GMT -5
Can we get confirmation that they can in fact place the qualifying offer on him if he opts out? I know Chris and Ian said so on the pod, but nobody in the media has brought up that option at all. "Are Martinez and Schwarber eligible for qualifying offers if they opt out? — Kevin C via The Athletic app Schwarber is not eligible because he was traded midseason. Martinez would be eligible, but the qualifying offer this offseason is a one-year, $18.4 million deal, which is less than the one year, $19.375 million left on Martinez’s current contract. So it doesn’t seem like it would make sense to opt out then take the QO for less money." theathletic.com/2922689/2021/11/01/j-d-martinez-trade-scenarios-coaching-changes-where-kyle-schwarber-fits-red-sox-mailbag-part-1/?ampGracias
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 1, 2021 13:52:28 GMT -5
As I've mentioned, the only reasons a free agent can't be made a qualifying offer is if they were traded during the preceding season or have already received one. That's it.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Nov 1, 2021 18:31:05 GMT -5
Thanks JD. You were a very important part of the greatest Red Sox team in history. #2018
Now, we can sign Schwarber and tell him to burn his gloves. I feel will allow Kyle to be healthier and even a better hitter if he’s only DH’ing
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 1, 2021 18:54:32 GMT -5
Thanks JD. You were a very important part of the greatest Red Sox team in history. #2018 Now, we can sign Schwarber and tell him to burn his gloves. I feel will allow Kyle to be healthier and even a better hitter if he’s only DH’ing Do you know something we dont? I didn't see anything saying he opted out....yet.
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Post by lostinnewjersey on Nov 1, 2021 19:22:32 GMT -5
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 1, 2021 19:33:10 GMT -5
Really hoping he's out of here. Others have disagreed with me on this, but I don't like the idea of paying a person who can't field when our infield defense is so suspect. I would much rather bring back Iglesias or another solid defensive infielder, let Schwarber and JD (assuming he opts out) walk, and then rotate Bobby, X, and Devers through DH. Ideally we could add a couple of Rays-esque platoon players to round out the bench and then invest the rest of the money in pitching. If there are other deals to be had, I'm all for Chaim getting creative. I just really don't like the idea of signing a pure DH unless the cost is low, the bat is exceptional, or both. In other words, if we're playing like $6-7 million per WAR at the DH position, like JD got last year, I want nothing to do with that. We'd get so much added value just from putting another solid defender out there instead of X, Raffy, and Bobby that a DH would have to put up enough WAR to not only justify their own paycheck, but also the defensive hit the team takes by forcing other weak fielders out there night after night.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 1, 2021 19:41:32 GMT -5
Correct, he wouldn't opt out and take the QO for less coin. But I'm convinced that it would be foolish for him (and E-Rod) to turn down the QO. It could drastically impact teams' interest in signing them. So, I expect to hear five days after the WS ends that JDM will not be opting out. The BS comment will go something like, "Boston has become my home and I love playing for the RS and these fans, which I why I've decided not to opt out of my contract. Let's win in all in 2022!"
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 1, 2021 20:01:17 GMT -5
Really hoping he's out of here. Others have disagreed with me on this, but I don't like the idea of paying a person who can't field when our infield defense is so suspect. I would much rather bring back Iglesias or another solid defensive infielder, let Schwarber and JD (assuming he opts out) walk, and then rotate Bobby, X, and Devers through DH. Ideally we could add a couple of Rays-esque platoon players to round out the bench and then invest the rest of the money in pitching. If there are other deals to be had, I'm all for Chaim getting creative. I just really don't like the idea of signing a pure DH unless the cost is low, the bat is exceptional, or both. In other words, if we're playing like $6-7 million per WAR at the DH position, like JD got last year, I want nothing to do with that. We'd get so much added value just from putting another solid defender out there instead of X, Raffy, and Bobby that a DH would have to put up enough WAR to not only justify their own paycheck, but also the defensive hit the team takes by forcing other weak fielders out there night after night. World Series player and defensive stalwart Marwin Gonzalez will probably be available.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 1, 2021 21:17:14 GMT -5
Really hoping he's out of here. Others have disagreed with me on this, but I don't like the idea of paying a person who can't field when our infield defense is so suspect. I would much rather bring back Iglesias or another solid defensive infielder, let Schwarber and JD (assuming he opts out) walk, and then rotate Bobby, X, and Devers through DH. Ideally we could add a couple of Rays-esque platoon players to round out the bench and then invest the rest of the money in pitching. If there are other deals to be had, I'm all for Chaim getting creative. I just really don't like the idea of signing a pure DH unless the cost is low, the bat is exceptional, or both. In other words, if we're playing like $6-7 million per WAR at the DH position, like JD got last year, I want nothing to do with that. We'd get so much added value just from putting another solid defender out there instead of X, Raffy, and Bobby that a DH would have to put up enough WAR to not only justify their own paycheck, but also the defensive hit the team takes by forcing other weak fielders out there night after night. World Series player and defensive stalwart Marwin Gonzalez will probably be available. I just threw up in my mouth XD
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 1, 2021 21:40:01 GMT -5
I wonder IF or How Much Tim Hyers leaving will impact JD's decision.
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Post by notnickyorke on Nov 1, 2021 22:12:28 GMT -5
Really hoping he's out of here. Others have disagreed with me on this, but I don't like the idea of paying a person who can't field when our infield defense is so suspect. I would much rather bring back Iglesias or another solid defensive infielder, let Schwarber and JD (assuming he opts out) walk, and then rotate Bobby, X, and Devers through DH. Ideally we could add a couple of Rays-esque platoon players to round out the bench and then invest the rest of the money in pitching. If there are other deals to be had, I'm all for Chaim getting creative. I just really don't like the idea of signing a pure DH unless the cost is low, the bat is exceptional, or both. In other words, if we're playing like $6-7 million per WAR at the DH position, like JD got last year, I want nothing to do with that. We'd get so much added value just from putting another solid defender out there instead of X, Raffy, and Bobby that a DH would have to put up enough WAR to not only justify their own paycheck, but also the defensive hit the team takes by forcing other weak fielders out there night after night. How about Kyle Seager, nice lefty with good defense at 3rd and maybe 2nd?
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Post by notnickyorke on Nov 1, 2021 22:13:23 GMT -5
Really hoping he's out of here. Others have disagreed with me on this, but I don't like the idea of paying a person who can't field when our infield defense is so suspect. I would much rather bring back Iglesias or another solid defensive infielder, let Schwarber and JD (assuming he opts out) walk, and then rotate Bobby, X, and Devers through DH. Ideally we could add a couple of Rays-esque platoon players to round out the bench and then invest the rest of the money in pitching. If there are other deals to be had, I'm all for Chaim getting creative. I just really don't like the idea of signing a pure DH unless the cost is low, the bat is exceptional, or both. In other words, if we're playing like $6-7 million per WAR at the DH position, like JD got last year, I want nothing to do with that. We'd get so much added value just from putting another solid defender out there instead of X, Raffy, and Bobby that a DH would have to put up enough WAR to not only justify their own paycheck, but also the defensive hit the team takes by forcing other weak fielders out there night after night. How about Kyle Seager, nice lefty with good defense at 3rd and maybe 2nd?
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 1, 2021 22:36:30 GMT -5
I wonder IF or How Much Tim Hyers leaving will impact JD's decision. Mentioned it on my first post here. I think the reason he's opting out is because he thinks he can beat 1 year at 19 million. I'd probably guess he gets 40-45 million on new deal. Extra 20+ million for a extra year or two years (one being vesting option or something like that).
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Post by orion09 on Nov 1, 2021 22:47:28 GMT -5
Correct, he wouldn't opt out and take the QO for less coin. But I'm convinced that it would be foolish for him (and E-Rod) to turn down the QO. It could drastically impact teams' interest in signing them. So, I expect to hear five days after the WS ends that JDM will not be opting out. The BS comment will go something like, "Boston has become my home and I love playing for the RS and these fans, which I why I've decided not to opt out of my contract. Let's win in all in 2022!" It was discussed earlier in the thread, but there's a line of thinking that JDM will both opt out and accept the QO. That way he would effectively keep the same salary (less $975k) and enter next year's free agency with no QO attached.
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