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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2019 11:50:50 GMT -5
Kind of surprised we don't have one yet, but given it could impact trades (in theory at least, not that there's any logjam), seemed as good a time as any to start. I'll leave this post as a reference before weighing in myself. Full MLFA list: www.soxprospects.com/mlfa.htmFull Rule 5 list: www.soxprospects.com/rule5.htmMike edit: fixed Rule 5 link
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2019 11:55:06 GMT -5
My thoughts below.
Definite adds: Bobby Dalbec, CJ Chatham
Maybe: Jhon Nunez (MLFA), Josh Ockimey, Marcus Wilson (maybe he should be definite?)
Possible: Chad De La Guerra
Unlikely but interesting: Jhonathan Diaz, Enmanuel De Jesus, Pedro Castellanos, Kyle Hart, Yoan Aybar
FWIW, I do not anticipate 40-man roster space to be an issue.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 24, 2019 12:02:17 GMT -5
I would put Wilson around 75% likely. Less than Chatham and Dalbec (basically 100% for both barring injury) but seems clearly the next most likely of the group.
Also, I assume Tanner Houck will be added during the season, as well as a third catcher for September (Hernandez or Centeno) would would potentially be a DFA candidate in the offseason.
I'd throw Yoan Aybar in the "Unlikely but interesting" category.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 24, 2019 12:10:56 GMT -5
I would put Wilson around 75% likely. Less than Chatham and Dalbec (basically 100% for both barring injury) but seems clearly the next most likely of the group. Also, I assume Tanner Houck will be added during the season, as well as a third catcher for September (Hernandez or Centeno) would would potentially be a DFA candidate in the offseason. I'd throw Yoan Aybar in the "Unlikely but interesting" category. Fits the profile of guys that are more likely to be selected (compared to say a Jhonathan Diaz type). If unprotected, I could definitely see him being selected and could definitely seeing him being eventually returned.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 24, 2019 12:23:06 GMT -5
It would certainly be better for his career and development if he did not spend a year in the back of a bad team's bullpen pitching 1 1/3 low-leverage innings a week and spending May 14 through July 28th on the disabled list with rostercrunchitis.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2019 12:47:19 GMT -5
Had meant to include him there. Nice catch. Agree with all of the above although I don't know that I think he's "likely" to be selected so much as "possibly."
I didn't note this, but the Sox have a number of guys I could see being picked up in minor league R5, but we don't get to see the AAA Reserve List, so who knows who would even be available.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 24, 2019 14:39:22 GMT -5
I actually think Eduard Bazardo is somewhere in between Maybe and Definite. Mine is pretty close to what Chris had:
Definite adds: Bobby Dalbec, CJ Chatham Not definite but more likely than not: Marcus Wilson, Eduard Bazardo Maybe: Jhon Nunez, Josh Ockimey, Kyle Hart, Yoan Aybar Unlikely but interesting: Jhonathan Diaz, Enmanuel De Jesus, Pedro Castellanos, Kyle Hart, Chad De La Guerra, Austin Rei
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2019 16:48:12 GMT -5
I'd missed Bazardo too. I won't bother updating my list and will instead just adopt Mike's more or less in full. I do think that CDLG probably is somewhere between the last two groups. I could definitely see a team that needs a versatile backup IF popping him in rule 5. A lot probably depends on how he's looked at short this year, where he's played the most, believe it or not. That said, his health struggles this year may keep him off the 40 and from getting picked. Lot can happen in the next 6 weeks though.
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Post by dmaineah on Jul 24, 2019 17:20:31 GMT -5
Definite adds: Bobby Dalbec, CJ Chatham, John Nunez, Eduard Bazardo, Not definite but more likely than not: Kyle Hart, Adam Lau Maybe: Marcus Wilson Unlikely but interesting: Josh Ockimey Longshots: Chad De La Guerra, Chris Owings, Tony Renda
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 25, 2019 10:01:02 GMT -5
Curious on your thought process on Lau, Owings, and Renda.
Lau: After his stellar April, his numbers are pretty mediocre. He doesn't strike me as someone who'll get a sniff.
Owings: Definition of replacement player. Not sure why they'd worry about losing him.
Renda: Wasn't selected in rule 5 last year and has almost literally been hurt all season. Not sure what would have changed there.
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Post by dmaineah on Jul 25, 2019 12:59:57 GMT -5
Curious on your thought process on Lau, Owings, and Renda. Lau: After his stellar April, his numbers are pretty mediocre. He doesn't strike me as someone who'll get a sniff. Owings: Definition of replacement player. Not sure why they'd worry about losing him. Renda: Wasn't selected in rule 5 last year and has almost literally been hurt all season. Not sure what would have changed there. I suspect that during the off season or maybe even at the trade deadline there will be some movement of middle infielder / utility infielder types from the roster. That's why I listed Chad De La Guerra, Chris Owings & Tony Renda in order as longshots. As for Lau, every year I'm surprised by the addition of an arm to the roster. So I decided to pick one & I went with Lau because I was also surprised when they moved him to AAA. I probably should of listed him with Ockimey.
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Post by coachmac on Aug 8, 2019 8:09:08 GMT -5
Does McGrath's status make him an option for a major league deal and a spot on the 40 player for at least next year to see if he's for real at AAA?
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Post by soxin8 on Aug 8, 2019 13:39:14 GMT -5
Ockimey's .935 OPS vs righthanders seems like an asset in his pre arb years if he can produce at that level in the majors.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 8, 2019 13:54:06 GMT -5
Ockimey's .935 OPS vs righthanders seems like an asset in his pre arb years if he can produce at that level in the majors. Homering off Kluber is a good look when trying to prove you can hit elite righties
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 8, 2019 19:32:11 GMT -5
Does McGrath's status make him an option for a major league deal and a spot on the 40 player for at least next year to see if he's for real at AAA? No chance he gets an MLB deal given the guys that don't get MLB deals in free agency. At best he would sign some kind of split contract, but realistically the best he gets is a larger-than-usual MiLB salary.
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Post by aboynamedkimandrew on Aug 11, 2019 1:07:34 GMT -5
Ockimey might be a big winner with the new rules. Today, if he was in the game in an even mildly important spot against a righty the opposing manager will call for a lefty, preferably his lefty specialist. The requirement that they must face three batters (or end an inning) will reduce the number of lefty specialists and the one or two out match-up game in particular. If we can back up Ockimey with a decent RH bat or two will that would virtually eliminate the risk as making the change will expose the opponent as much or more than it will help. Of course, with two out it would probably still pay to go to the bullpen against Josh as the lefty can be exempted from facing the following batters if they get out of the inning.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 11, 2019 3:48:50 GMT -5
Good points all IMO. Accepting that near-MLB-ready Sox prospects might never measure up to the awesomeness of a mature Beni, Betts, Bogaerts or Devers, AAA includes some intriguing talents who might contribute to a contending Sox team in 2020 forward. If they prove out, their low salaries (I would love to make that little) will permit extending that Homegrown core.
Yes, I know Ockimey, like any prospect, may not pan out, but if he does, warts and all, he is a genuine weapon. I am pulling for a Dalbec/Ock platoon soon, and their potential should be protected. Depth whicn is developing includes both Travis & Dalbec, but both are RHB, so no platoon there. 2020 begins the 26 man roster. 4-man bench and 8-man bullpen likely. Only problem for the bench is that each of Ockimey, Holt, Marco and Lin are LHB. But the Dalbec/Ock combination could he both lethal and versatile, and allow depth as JDM/Ock, Devers/Dalbec, Chavis/Holt at 2B/1B/3B/LF. Hope they keep and protect Ockimey.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 19, 2019 9:34:03 GMT -5
Updated thoughts. Only real change is that Wilson has probably played his way onto the 40 now that he's hitting in AA.
Definite adds: Bobby Dalbec, CJ Chatham, Marcus Wilson Not definite but more likely than not: Eduard Bazardo Maybe: Jhon Nunez, Josh Ockimey, Yoan Aybar Unlikely but interesting: Kyle Hart, Jhonathan Diaz, Enmanuel De Jesus, Pedro Castellanos, Chad De La Guerra, Austin Rei
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 3, 2019 20:05:38 GMT -5
I can't imagine Sturgeon being added, but is there any chance he gets picked by some team who could use a 5th OF who can play all 3 spots?
I have a soft spot for the plus make-up guys, always nice when they get a couple games as an injury replacement, with the paycheck that comes along with it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 3, 2019 20:25:27 GMT -5
Nah. Sturgeon is basically the definition of slightly below replacement level.
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Post by dmaineah on Oct 5, 2019 9:54:49 GMT -5
Definite adds: Bobby Dalbec, CJ Chatham, John Nunez, Eduard Bazardo, Not definite but more likely than not: Kyle Hart, Adam Lau Maybe: Marcus Wilson Unlikely but interesting: Josh Ockimey Longshots: Chad De La Guerra, Chris Owings, Tony Renda I'm updating my list; Definite: Chatham, Dalbec, Nunez Not definite but more likely than not: Wilson, Bazardo Maybe: Ockimey, Hart Longshots: De La Guerra, Diaz, Lau, Kent, Schwaab Unlikely: Everybody else
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 19, 2019 8:24:23 GMT -5
OverTheMonster @overthemonster 22m More roster moves: Red Sox outright Josh Smith and Gorkys Hernández off 40-man roster
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Post by dmaineah on Oct 31, 2019 11:33:24 GMT -5
On the "List" page of " Minor league free agent eligibility " it reads that; players will be eligible for minor league free agency in November of the stated year unless they are added to the 40 man roster or are re- signed prior to that time.
Does that mean someone like Jhon Nunez & Daniel McGrath needs to be added to the roster today before midnight?
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Post by Mike Andrews on Oct 31, 2019 19:38:04 GMT -5
Minor league free agency opens on Monday.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 1, 2019 13:23:54 GMT -5
On the "List" page of " Minor league free agent eligibility " it reads that; players will be eligible for minor league free agency in November of the stated year unless they are added to the 40 man roster or are re- signed prior to that time. Does that mean someone like Jhon Nunez & Daniel McGrath needs to be added to the roster today before midnight? 5 days after WS
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