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7/25-7/28 Red Sox vs. Yankees Series Thread
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 25, 2019 12:46:01 GMT -5
7/25 Red Sox (RHP Rick Porcello 8-7, 5.61, 87K:32BB) vs. Yankees (RHP Masahiro Tanaka 7-5, 4.00, 117.0 IP, 98K:26BB) 7:10 pm ET, MLBN/WEEI 7/26 Red Sox (RHP Andrew Cashner 9-5, 4.19, 107.1 IP, 75K:33BB) vs. Yankees (LHP James Paxton 5-5, 4.20, 85.2 IP, 108K:35BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/MLBN/WEEI 7/27 Red Sox (LHP Eduardo Rodriguez 12-4, 4.10, 123.0 IP, 126K:41BB) vs. Yankees (LHP C.C. Sabathia 5-5, 4.50, 86.0 IP, 79K:30BB) 4:05 pm ET, FS1/WEEI 7/28 Red Sox (LHP Chris Sale 5-9, 4.00, 123.2 IP, 182K:32BB) vs. Yankees (RHP Domingo German 12-2, 4.03, 91.2 IP, 98K:23BB) 7:00 pm ET, ESPN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2019: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 25, 2019 12:54:07 GMT -5
This is an important series.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 25, 2019 12:58:41 GMT -5
This is an important series. This series will impact their home W-L record.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 25, 2019 13:06:27 GMT -5
A split maintains the momentum. Any thing more than that significantly advances it.
Win two, steal two.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 25, 2019 13:09:03 GMT -5
A split maintains the momentum. Any thing more than that significantly advances it. Win two, steal two. I really don't believe in momentum, but is it the same, better or worse if they win the first two and lose the last two or lose the first two win the last two?
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Post by huskies15 on Jul 25, 2019 13:20:47 GMT -5
Can't say i love the pitching matchups the first two games. Might have to pull out one in a major slugfest. I'll be at friday's game so here's to hoping Cashner finds that rabbit in his hat again!
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,434
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Post by nomar on Jul 25, 2019 13:32:00 GMT -5
Pessimistic but I’ll take 2 wins in this series. Terrible pitching matchups for us
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2019 13:34:13 GMT -5
I hope they use multiple pitch call signals all series.
Sanchez just went on the IL as well.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 25, 2019 14:34:26 GMT -5
They aren't going to give Porcello the Leon binkie. CVaz catching.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 25, 2019 14:36:13 GMT -5
They aren't going to give Porcello the Leon binkie. CVaz catching. Sometimes ya gotta Cowboy Up...
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 25, 2019 14:49:58 GMT -5
It's amazing for how two years in a row the Red Sox have avoided a major injury. Losing Moreland and Eovaldi is disappointing, but not nearly in the same stratosphere as losing Snell, Kluber, Sanchez, et...
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Post by Guidas on Jul 25, 2019 15:01:22 GMT -5
A split maintains the momentum. Any thing more than that significantly advances it. Win two, steal two. I really don't believe in momentum, but is it the same, better or worse if they win the first two and lose the last two or lose the first two win the last two? Momentum in this case meaning progress in winning enough games to qualify for the playoffs. I think it's better if they win the first two, since the pitching match-ups favor NYY, and it removes pressure. NYY will have zero pressure, even if they lose the first three. They are coasting right now.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jul 25, 2019 15:23:50 GMT -5
It's amazing for how two years in a row the Red Sox have avoided a major injury. Losing Moreland and Eovaldi is disappointing, but not nearly in the same stratosphere as losing Snell, Kluber, Sanchez, et... Sale?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 25, 2019 15:26:04 GMT -5
It's amazing for how two years in a row the Red Sox have avoided a major injury. Losing Moreland and Eovaldi is disappointing, but not nearly in the same stratosphere as losing Snell, Kluber, Sanchez, et... Sale? Didn't really lose for a lengthy period of time. He was beat up (clearly) in the playoffs, but was still able to pitch. I think he missed 5 starts last year?
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Post by ivor on Jul 25, 2019 15:32:44 GMT -5
Didn't really lose for a lengthy period of time. He was beat up (clearly) in the playoffs, but was still able to pitch. I think he missed 5 starts last year? Pitched July 27, then came back on Aug 12 for one game, and then returned (1 inning) Sept 11
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 25, 2019 15:33:23 GMT -5
Maybe Porcello can put spaghetti sauce on his meatballs down the middle tonight. If anything, it'll confuse what the Yankees are trying to hit the first three innings tonight, maybe. Win 16-15 tonight.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 25, 2019 15:38:54 GMT -5
Didn't really lose for a lengthy period of time. He was beat up (clearly) in the playoffs, but was still able to pitch. I think he missed 5 starts last year? Pitched July 27, then came back on Aug 12 for one game, and then returned (1 inning) Sept 11 I mean, he still made 27 starts, but I did forget that he only came back in one of those for an inning. I guess Sale is fair to quibble about. I just think more in terms of position players missing 2 months or a starter missing more than half a season like Kluber who only has 7 starts this year and is likely only going to finish with 11-12 or Snell who is at 20 and may only get to 22 or could just get shut down the rest of the season depending on where they are in the playoff race. He could also get moved to the BP as well considering this is the same injury Eovaldi had.
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Post by ivor on Jul 25, 2019 15:40:09 GMT -5
Rick Porcello from July 8th -> July 28th 2018 (4 Starts): 20.2IP, 27H, 6.53ERA
August 3rd 2018 (vs Yankees): CG, 1H, 1ER, 9K
Fingers crossed he manages to pull something out of the bag again tonight 🤞
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Post by ivor on Jul 25, 2019 15:42:23 GMT -5
Pitched July 27, then came back on Aug 12 for one game, and then returned (1 inning) Sept 11 I mean, he still made 27 starts, but I did forget that he only came back in one of those for an inning. I guess Sale is fair to quibble about. I just think more in terms of position players missing 2 months or a starter missing more than half a season like Kluber who only has 7 starts this year and is likely only going to finish with 11-12 or Snell who is at 20 and may only get to 22 or could just get shut down the rest of the season depending on where they are in the playoff race. He could also get moved to the BP as well considering this is the same injury Eovaldi had. Oh, i was agreeing with you that it wasn't the same as the guys you mentioned. Though it felt much longer than it seems now lol
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2019 15:49:42 GMT -5
I mean, he still made 27 starts, but I did forget that he only came back in one of those for an inning. I guess Sale is fair to quibble about. I just think more in terms of position players missing 2 months or a starter missing more than half a season like Kluber who only has 7 starts this year and is likely only going to finish with 11-12 or Snell who is at 20 and may only get to 22 or could just get shut down the rest of the season depending on where they are in the playoff race. He could also get moved to the BP as well considering this is the same injury Eovaldi had. Oh, i was agreeing with you that it wasn't the same as the guys you mentioned. Though it felt much longer than it seems now lol It definitely didn't help that he wasn't at full strength in the playoffs either. I don't think he would have come back if they weren't playoff bound.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 25, 2019 15:56:51 GMT -5
Oh, i was agreeing with you that it wasn't the same as the guys you mentioned. Though it felt much longer than it seems now lol It definitely didn't help that he wasn't at full strength in the playoffs either. I don't think he would have come back if they weren't playoff bound. Probably, but he was a warrior and did a very good job in round 1, was so-so in round 2, and then gave up 3 runs in 4 IP, though in his 5.0 total innings in the WS he still had a k/bb 10/2. So he gave them some good value, even if he wasn't vintage Sale. But, the same thing can likely be said of Snell. He could probably just get shut down (like Sale would have) if they're out of it and there's no point.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,881
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2019 16:56:43 GMT -5
Obviously Porcello is one of the team's biggest concerns right now.
The other thing that worries me is their clutch hitting. Yeah, I know it's not real.
I earlier identified a huge split in their performance in very high leverage from early in the season vs. more recently. It turned out that the clear dividing line was not some random point in time, but the middle of the May 14 game they lost against the Orioles where Sale fanned 17 of 24 hitters and they squandered several opportunities to win in extras.
Cherry-picking the definition of leverage number for "very high leverage" that yields the biggest spit (2.65 or better), you get .302 / .413 / .476 in 80 PA before, vs. .157 / .216 / .157 in 111 PA after. Of course, if you pick 2.5 or 3.0 as your definition, you're still going to get a startling big split.
You could do a lot of extra work and weight each PA by the LI and find a point where the performance starts to drop off dramatically ... and it would be right around 2.65.
And with 2.65 as your definition, their BB rate has fallen from .150 to .054. That has a 1 in 80 chance of being random (and if it were random, the point where it dramatically goes into the tank is very unlikely to be one of the 2 or 3 toughest losses of the year). There are few better indicators of how a team is approaching their PA's than walk rate, so that's another reason to think a lot of this is real.
On July 4, they had come back from a 25% Win Probability or worse in 30% of their games (18 out of 59), winning 3 more games than expected. They have now failed to come back and win from 25% or worse 6 straight times, for the first time all year. That reduces the 25% success rate to 27% of the time, and that's an unimpressive figure for a team with a solid bullpen (overall) to keep them close in games they're trailing, and a great offense that is furthermore led by guys who have performed well in the clutch over their careers and/or hit good pitching particularly well, specifically Bogaerts, Betts, and Devers (JDM is the opposite).
And they had chances in three of those games, most recently last night, although having to face Pagan, one of the best relievers in MLB, meant the chances were actually slimmer than they seemed. There was the 7/13 game against the Dodgers when Joe Kelly fanned CV with 2 outs and 2 on with the Sox trailing by 3, and the awful game the next night when they did come back from a 14.8% chance to tie the game, but then couldn't win it in extras. Again, they had the bad luck to run into Kenley Jansen pitching like his old self.
I don't think there's any indication that the current clutch outage is anything but the bad performance since mid-May plus some extra bad luck. But I do think that the team is collectively pressing in these extra-big situations and continues to do so. One epic hit can change that psychology overnight, so that's other thing to hope for is in this series: some high-leverage heroics from Xander, Mookie, or the baby-faced killer who bats between them. Or anyone else!
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2019 17:24:27 GMT -5
Gardner was also put on the IL today. No Sanchez or Gardner. So maybe whoever replaces them will swing at pitches instead of bitching about every called strike.
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Post by cheers on Jul 25, 2019 17:32:44 GMT -5
Gardner was also put on the IL today. No Sanchez or Gardner. So maybe whoever replaces them will swing at pitches instead of bitching about every called strike. Maybe the MFY can add ARod to the 40 man, and Sandy can give him a gentle poke to the teefus. I heard this is a good way to kick start a potentially moribund season... Edit: Mostly, I don't want to listen to him in the broadcast booth on Sunday. Does it count if someone goes up to the press box and pokes him in the teefus?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 25, 2019 17:48:51 GMT -5
Gardner was also put on the IL today. No Sanchez or Gardner. So maybe whoever replaces them will swing at pitches instead of bitching about every called strike. Lol I don't think I've met one Red Sox fan that respects or likes Bret Gardner. It'd be funny that in a series where Sanchez is killing the Sox, we'd be crapping on Gardner. I totally get it. Gardner is definitely my top 5 most hated MFY. No one tops this list than Jorge Pasada. I feel bad when players get injured, but I for to admit, I laughed for 5 minutes straight when I saw a ball hit him in his big fat nose running to first base that landed him on the DL back in the day.
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