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The end of the juiced ball era?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 2, 2019 11:23:00 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 2, 2019 12:13:06 GMT -5
That's so full of sh*t. There are 100s of youtube videos that show a major league ball bounce higher than a normal ball when dropped from the same distance.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 2, 2019 12:57:32 GMT -5
That's so full of sh*t. There are 100s of youtube videos that show a major league ball bounce higher than a normal ball when dropped from the same distance. Lol. Would love to see them dropped on the same spot from calibrated 50 and 60 feet. would a 2014 ball he degraded by aging?
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Post by sittingstill on Aug 2, 2019 13:12:33 GMT -5
The Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball conference held at Boston University every summer (this year's is August 10-11) has had some very interesting presentations explaining the research work. These two presentations are scheduled for Sunday this year. 2:00 - 2:15 Physics Home Runs The 2019 Home Run Surge: A Whole New Ballgame (Again) Meredith Wills @bbl_Astrophyscs In 2017, we saw an unprecedented increase in home runs, ultimately setting a new season record of 6,105. It was shown that this Home Run Surge was caused by a change to the baseball—most likely the introduction of thicker laces, which inadvertently produced a ball that was more spherically-symmetric, and hence more aerodynamic. As a byproduct, increased lace thickness created “rougher” seams, leading to a massive spike in pitcher blister injuries. This year, the home run rate has soared again, and once again it appears related to a change in baseball construction. However, this time the culprit is not thicker laces. While the drag coefficient has decreased, blister rates have not increased, and pitchers league-wide have described this season’s ball as feeling “different.” In addition, both walk- and hit-by-pitch rates are up, suggesting that the new ball is affecting command and control. For this study, I disassemble a sample of 2019 baseballs, measuring properties of the ball and the construction materials; I then compare my findings with previous analyses of pre-2015 and 2016-2018 balls. My results show that aspects of the baseball are indeed different and that these statistically-significant differences could account for lower drag and a higher home run rate. I discover further changes that provide an explanation for the decrease in pitcher blisters and the increase in command-and-control issues. Evidence suggests that these changes are not unexpected, but are the result of improved quality control and a concerted effort to mitigate pitcher blisters. 2:15 - 2:35 Physics Home Runs Has the Ball Changed? Lloyd Smith (Washington State University) Baseball depends on the feel of the ball, the way it travels through the air and its response from impact with a bat. While many players, coaches and fans have subjective opinions on the ball, laboratory tests are needed to quantify its properties. Some laboratory ball tests have been used for decades, largely unchanged; others have evolved and novel methods are being developed to measure new properties. This presentation will review new and old methods to test baseballs, with an emphasis on identifying changes to the ball, observed after the 2015 All Star game. The laboratory tests have shown good agreement with anecdotal observations (the ball is traveling further) and tracking measurements during play (the ball has less drag). This has led to the conclusion that the aerodynamic drag of the ball has changed. While small changes in the ball drag can have a large effect on offense, there is no aerodynamic specification for baseballs or even a standard test method to quantify it. Complicating matters further, baseballs are made from natural materials and hand sewn. The result is that the ball-to-ball variation in baseball drag is much larger than the small change in average drag needed to cause a significant change in offense. Large sample sizes, therefore, are needed to separate systematic changes in the ball from natural ball-to-ball variation. Novel methods to measure ball drag and potential causes for the change in drag will be discussed.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 2, 2019 14:19:54 GMT -5
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dd
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Post by dd on Aug 2, 2019 16:05:38 GMT -5
That's so full of sh*t. There are 100s of youtube videos that show a major league ball bounce higher than a normal ball when dropped from the same distance. With respect, jimed, while I'm inclined to believe that the baseball has changed, I like don't find this particular video very convincing. It says that 7 of 8 times the ball on the viewer's left bounce higher but my count (watching it once) was that the ball on the right bounced higher 3 times. The difference is said to be 10% but to my (admittedly uncalibrated) eye, it wasn't even close to 10%. Also, we don't know who did this test, can't see the hands letting go of the balls, and can't see the surface they bounce on.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 2, 2019 16:22:36 GMT -5
I cannot find the much better videos than that and frankly I don't care enough to go find them. I've watched some without humans being involved that show the new ball bouncing higher every single time.
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Post by azblue on Aug 4, 2019 10:44:32 GMT -5
No, they are saying the opposite. The tests found that there was a "...decrease in “drag’’ — which means less air resistance for the ball, which then carries farther."
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2019 15:59:03 GMT -5
No, they are saying the opposite. The tests found that there was a "...decrease in “drag’’ — which means less air resistance for the ball, which then carries farther." In the paper I read the researcher said that the change MLB/Rawlings instituted in the drying process has created a detectibly smoother ball which produces less drag which allows it to carry further. This, combined with the lower seams, which gives some pitchers a bit less control over breaking pitches, and the three true outcome swings adapted by many batters over the last 2-3 years, has led to an increase in longballs.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2019 18:37:40 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 13, 2019 2:15:19 GMT -5
JJ Cooper @jjcoop36 · If you're hitting .320/.410/.590 with 25 HRs in the PCL right now....
Sorry, you don't qualify for the Top 10 in any of those categories.
JJ Cooper @jjcoop36 · On the flip side, if you have a 5.47 ERA like Foster Griffin, you are among the top 10 in the league in ERA.
JJ Cooper @jjcoop36 ·
One more. If you are fortunate enough to be hitting .400/.480/.780 in the PCL right now that wouldn't be good enough to lead any of the three categories thanks to Ty France's amazing season.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Aug 13, 2019 7:40:06 GMT -5
JJ Cooper @jjcoop36 · If you're hitting .320/.410/.590 with 25 HRs in the PCL right now.... Sorry, you don't qualify for the Top 10 in any of those categories. JJ Cooper @jjcoop36 · On the flip side, if you have a 5.47 ERA like Foster Griffin, you are among the top 10 in the league in ERA. JJ Cooper @jjcoop36 · One more. If you are fortunate enough to be hitting .400/.480/.780 in the PCL right now that wouldn't be good enough to lead any of the three categories thanks to Ty France's amazing season. That is ridiculous. How can you evaluate anyone? I knew a few of the teams have altitude and seabreeze problems; what's the excuse for the rest?
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Post by costpet on Aug 13, 2019 10:42:21 GMT -5
Just hand them to the kids at MIT and you'll find the answer.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 15, 2019 9:39:24 GMT -5
I mean, come on:
I know Aquino is a strong dude, and I dont' want to feel like I'm taking something away from him. But that swing, on that pitch, at that angle... should not carry out of the park. He doesn't even barrel the ball. He mishits hit and it still carries out. And it's not that the pitch is great. It stayed too far up, even though he kept it out of the zone away. But that's the thing with the juiced balls - the margin for error is now nonexistant.
You all know the face pitchers would make when they got away with a mistake, the "that curveball didn't curve enough but the batter got under it just enough and hit a lazy fly ball instead of a bomb" face that we've seen forever. You don't see it anymore, because it's turned into the "that curveball didn't curve enough and the batter got under it just enough and hit a lazy fly ball instead of a bomb but it carried out of the park anyway FML" face.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 15, 2019 11:24:51 GMT -5
JJ Cooper @jjcoop36 · If you're hitting .320/.410/.590 with 25 HRs in the PCL right now.... Sorry, you don't qualify for the Top 10 in any of those categories. JJ Cooper @jjcoop36 · On the flip side, if you have a 5.47 ERA like Foster Griffin, you are among the top 10 in the league in ERA. JJ Cooper @jjcoop36 · One more. If you are fortunate enough to be hitting .400/.480/.780 in the PCL right now that wouldn't be good enough to lead any of the three categories thanks to Ty France's amazing season. That is ridiculous. How can you evaluate anyone? I knew a few of the teams have altitude and seabreeze problems; what's the excuse for the rest? In person. With scouts. That's really one of the last remaining areas to flex financial muscle - hire the best amateur and pro scouts, best player dev guys and coaches. Pay them well and keep them in the fold.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 15, 2019 11:29:57 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 15, 2019 12:20:16 GMT -5
The comments are worth the read. I understand it's the nature of a game that relies on hitting a (non-standard) baseball with a (non-standard) bat. But given the extreme distortion of the game that this has led to MLB should just throw out the record book. It also makes the statheads who work to develop park and season adjustments more valuable than ever. Either that, or as you posted above, find the best scouts you can and pay them what they're worth. That's probably going to cost you less than a battery of nerds and the cloud services you'll need to keep up with these changes
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2019 14:21:29 GMT -5
Alan Nathan was my predecessor as chair of SABR's Science and Baseball Committee and led the MLB-assigned investigative team. They had supplies of numerous balls from before and after and measured them scientifically. There was no difference in the average coefficient of restitution ("bounciness).
They did determine that the ball had less drag, and not for any obvious reason. The only thing they missed that they might have caught was the lower seams. We now know about that, the better centering pf the pill, and (new to me in this thread) the changed drying process.
It certainly seems that this year's ball is going further. It's pretty easy from Statcast to determine whether the ball is smoother, bouncier, both, or neither (maybe the hitters are just better). I may look tonight at what analyses are available (after I spend 3+ hours with the director's cut of Woodstock).
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 15, 2019 14:29:45 GMT -5
Alan Nathan was my predecessor as chair of SABR's Science and Baseball Committee and led the MLB-assigned investigative team. They had supplies of numerous balls from before and after and measured them scientifically. There was no difference in the average coefficient of restitution ("bounciness).
They did determine that the ball had less drag, and not for any obvious reason. The only thing they missed that they might have caught was the lower seams. We now know about that, the better centering pf the pill, and (new to me in this thread) the changed drying process.
It certainly seems that this year's ball is going further. It's pretty easy from Statcast to determine whether the ball is smoother, bouncier, both, or neither (maybe the hitters are just better). I may look tonight at what analyses are available (after I spend 3+ hours with the director's cut of Woodstock).
Great..................................... They aren't going to keep fans in the seats. I'd love to see if you could do some kind of analysis on how random HR suppression is now. I think it's close to completely random which means that pitcher quality means a lot less if true given that ERA is most closely related to HR/FB% now.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 15, 2019 15:41:04 GMT -5
Here are some things I just learned while procrastinating from work: -In 2019, there have been 1.40 HRs hit per team per game. -The next highest average of all time is 1.26, in 2017; next highest after that is 1.17, in 2000. -As recently as 2014, it was only 0.86 per game. That's the lowest it had been since 1992. So homers are up 63% over 2014. -The number never got above 1.00 until 1987. -Yet teams are scoring 4.85 runs/game which, though relatively high, is only tied for 6th-highest since 1994. -In 1930, teams scored 5.55 runs/game while hitting only 0.63 homers. A couple of subjective points: -IMO, relatively many runs with relatively few homers is the ideal equilibrium - more action on the basepaths, more balls in play, more gradually mounting tension, all of which make baseball more fun. -Whether by design or not, the juiced ball has counteracted a trend toward more pitching dominance and more Ks. Even with the record number of homers, runs are not really outside of historical norms. So rather than my ideal equilibrium we're getting the opposite - more Ks and more homers. -I really liked ericvman's suggestion (or citation of someone else's suggestion) that MLB could redistribute weight within the ball to lower spin rates, which would make pitchers' stuff less filthy, and then to ensure they didn't just get smacked around you deaden the ball so it doesn't get hit as far.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 15, 2019 16:41:07 GMT -5
Back to the future?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 16, 2019 10:42:07 GMT -5
Nice bullpen game for the Yankees. 8 of the 11 home runs in this game were under 400 feet.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 3, 2019 4:37:15 GMT -5
Minor League Stories @minorsteamnames · 10h Final AAA Home Run Totals: 2018 - 3,652 2019 - 5,749 AAA games switched to MLB baseballs in 2019.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 3, 2019 7:13:04 GMT -5
Minor League Stories @minorsteamnames · 10h Final AAA Home Run Totals: 2018 - 3,652 2019 - 5,749 AAA games switched to MLB baseballs in 2019. That deserves a big Wow.... The end of baseball as we knew it...Ugh.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 3, 2019 10:18:09 GMT -5
#8 hitters this year are hitting home runs at a rate of 1 in 28.85 plate appearances. That's more than cleanup hitters in 29 other live ball seasons.
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