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8/9 Gameday Thread: Fly Away on My Zephyr
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Post by larrycook on Aug 9, 2019 22:35:56 GMT -5
Dalbec with a tater.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2019 23:33:02 GMT -5
After a strange AA season, Marcus Wilson's IsoD is now up to .111 and IsoP up to .184. Keep it climbing.
He was 3/5 with 2 doubles and a HR today.
Humorous aside that has nothing to do with baseball but happened while I was typing this. An American friend came over to show me a second hand motorcycle and sidecar he had bought for his wife. It's probably worth about 60,000 pesos but he got it for 30,000. While my wife and I were walking back inside I commented that it was one hell of a steal. A few minutes later my wife came into the computer area and told me to make sure that I lock my motorcycle so that it doesn't get stolen. Idioms....
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 10, 2019 1:12:31 GMT -5
I prefer more lower budget international signings.. And pass up on elite talents like Rafael Devers for 1.5 Million? I don't agree with you
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 10, 2019 1:13:46 GMT -5
thank you for that video. Anyone know a distance and exo velocity on that one? He crushed that over the 402' sign
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Post by caseytins on Aug 10, 2019 2:37:43 GMT -5
I prefer more lower budget international signings.. And pass up on elite talents like Rafael Devers for 1.5 Million? I don't agree with you You don't have to agree with me. I know I am right. Look at what they brought Xander in for. How about Darwinzon, and Mata. Come on. Look at all of the money wasted in the international market. Rusney and friends say hello.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 10, 2019 4:30:44 GMT -5
That's pretty lame. I'd be willing to bet that Rafael Devers alone will bring us more career WAR value than all the over 1 million dollar bonuses combined including Moncada.
Add in Tazawa & Okajima's contributions, Iglesias 11+ career WAR for 6 million, Moncada's value in the Sale trade, Dice-K's Red Sox 8 WAR. You wouldn't pay Tzu-Wei Lin $2m to buy him today ? Really ?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 10, 2019 6:41:59 GMT -5
And pass up on elite talents like Rafael Devers for 1.5 Million? I don't agree with you You don't have to agree with me. I know I am right. Look at what they brought Xander in for. How about Darwinzon, and Mata. Come on. Look at all of the money wasted in the international market. Rusney and friends say hello. The correct answer is that you do both. You sign the big international minor league free agent signings and the small signings too. The key here is getting as much talent as possible that you scout and like. Big or small signing talents. The Sox might be the best in the league overall at this. Like it's amazing how many international guys they pump out seemingly each year. It's one of the reasons why I never worry about the farm system. The Sox always find a way to keep finding guys, even sometimes out of no where.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 10, 2019 8:41:23 GMT -5
And pass up on elite talents like Rafael Devers for 1.5 Million? I don't agree with you You don't have to agree with me. I know I am right. Look at what they brought Xander in for. How about Darwinzon, and Mata. Come on. Look at all of the money wasted in the international market. Rusney and friends say hello.What friends? Who else have the Red Sox signed internationally who remotely compares to Rusney?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 10, 2019 10:18:17 GMT -5
Well, let's be clear on something: The Red Sox haven't given out huge bonuses the last couple years. But that doesn't mean they're not going to give out any large bonuses ever. We're two years removed from them literally trading Nick Longhi so that they could give Daniel Flores $3M. I doubt they've changed their philosophy entirely in that time.
If the Red Sox identify a player who they feel is worth giving a 7-figure bonus, they will do so. But determining that a player is worth that bonus also includes a determination of whether they want to forego other signings under the cap, which they may not be willing to do in all instances.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 10, 2019 13:21:43 GMT -5
Every time I see The name Daniel Flores A little piece of me dies on the inside
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Post by telson13 on Aug 10, 2019 13:47:54 GMT -5
Looks like Kyri Washington has retired. He's had multiple arm surgeries, so looks like that got him. We also missed that Mark Montgomery got released in May. In the process of finding out about some other long-term MIA guys. Trent Kemp?
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Post by telson13 on Aug 10, 2019 14:23:27 GMT -5
And pass up on elite talents like Rafael Devers for 1.5 Million? I don't agree with you You don't have to agree with me. I know I am right. Look at what they brought Xander in for. How about Darwinzon, and Mata. Come on. Look at all of the money wasted in the international market. Rusney and friends say hello. I agree with you in general, as I think going for volume at that age trumps putting all your eggs in a couple of baskets. Bogey was a mid-range signing (I think 400k, too lazy to check), and as you note Mata and Darwinzon got negligible bonuses. High-priced signings like Devers sometimes work out, but for every Devers there’s a group of Acosta, Espinoza, and Jose Vinicio. Espinoza exploded on the scene and returned Pomeranz, but he’s now had 2 TJs and it’s questionable he ever makes MLB. Acosta’s been a character enigma, and Vinicio never learned to hit. Guys that young are so hard to project that from a business standpoint, it makes more sense, I think, to hedge your bets, rely on scouting and relationships, and spread the money around. Devers was a great signing, but he’s not the norm. Sometimes it makes sense to go all-in on a few players (Daniel Flores was one...and then literally the worst possible thing, far beyond the scope of baseball, happened). IFAs are historically an incredibly good investment of time and resources, so the more a team “diversifies,” especially when you’re the Sox and have great relationships in a very tough area like Venezuela, results are more likely positive, and simultaneously less risky.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 10, 2019 14:33:46 GMT -5
Every time I see The name Daniel Flores A little piece of me dies on the inside Same. When they made the Longhi trade, I knew they *really* had someone they liked a LOT. And his being a catcher, a supremely talented one defensively...he was just SUCH an exciting player. I felt SO lucky that they’d signed him. And the few things I read about him referenced him as a really upstanding, hard-working young man. One of those guys you root for even when he’s not on your team. And then suddenly he was gone. I still think about his family and what it means to all those people who cared about him and were pulling for him, all that promise and all those years lost. I still get really sad every time I see his name, too.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 10, 2019 14:36:37 GMT -5
That's pretty lame. I'd be willing to bet that Rafael Devers alone will bring us more career WAR value than all the over 1 million dollar bonuses combined including Moncada. Add in Tazawa & Okajima's contributions, Iglesias 11+ career WAR for 6 million, Moncada's value in the Sale trade, Dice-K's Red Sox 8 WAR. You wouldn't pay Tzu-Wei Lin $2m to buy him today ? Really ? It all depends on who you DON’T sign because you’ve used up all your cap money. There’s a balance needed there.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 10, 2019 14:55:02 GMT -5
Every time I see The name Daniel Flores A little piece of me dies on the inside Same. When they made the Longhi trade, I knew they *really* had someone they liked a LOT. And his being a catcher, a supremely talented one defensively...he was just SUCH an exciting player. I felt SO lucky that they’d signed him. And the few things I read about him referenced him as a really upstanding, hard-working young man. One of those guys you root for even when he’s not on your team. And then suddenly he was gone. I still think about his family and what it means to all those people who cared about him and were pulling for him, all that promise and all those years lost. I still get really sad every time I see his name, too. It’s honestly hard to come up with a bigger tragedy. He was a kid that was about to take his family out of a tough situation through his hard work. I’m glad they still got signing bonus but my goodness it doesn’t mean much when you’re talking about losing a son and a character like that. 16 and strong....and gone in the blink of an eye through no fault of his own. Life can be a real asshole sometimes.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 11, 2019 0:06:42 GMT -5
That's pretty lame. I'd be willing to bet that Rafael Devers alone will bring us more career WAR value than all the over 1 million dollar bonuses combined including Moncada. Add in Tazawa & Okajima's contributions, Iglesias 11+ career WAR for 6 million, Moncada's value in the Sale trade, Dice-K's Red Sox 8 WAR. You wouldn't pay Tzu-Wei Lin $2m to buy him today ? Really ? It all depends on who you DON’T sign because you’ve used up all your cap money. There’s a balance needed there. It's always somewhat of a darts game as long as there is a cap. I also by the way agree with the concept in general but not to the extremes at either ends of the spectrum, especially with our now having two DSL teams to work with. At the top end of the spectrum, the risks and rewards are greater. Consider Devers who was ranked about third at the time we signed him. This year alone, Devers will deliver about 10 years of IFA cap money in excess value and, there are players all over baseball who are delivering and who were highly ranked at the time. It takes a ton of failures to compensate for one success.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 11, 2019 12:46:20 GMT -5
True, but consider Xander, who signed for $410k (really like $600k if you include Jair's bonus) and is probably the non-trout MVP. I agree with the general point that high-end IFA signings can certainly pan out though.
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 11, 2019 15:35:45 GMT -5
Yeah, sometimes you get what you pay for. Every few years, I’d love to see Sox spend big on a top 5 international prospect and go for it. Yankees just got Dominguez who looks like an incredible prospect
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Post by telson13 on Aug 11, 2019 20:15:19 GMT -5
It all depends on who you DON’T sign because you’ve used up all your cap money. There’s a balance needed there. It's always somewhat of a darts game as long as there is a cap. I also by the way agree with the concept in general but not to the extremes at either ends of the spectrum, especially with our now having two DSL teams to work with. At the top end of the spectrum, the risks and rewards are greater. Consider Devers who was ranked about third at the time we signed him. This year alone, Devers will deliver about 10 years of IFA cap money in excess value and, there are players all over baseball who are delivering and who were highly ranked at the time. It takes a ton of failures to compensate for one success. Yeah, I think we’re very much in agreement; just focusing on one or the other has serious risks. A measured approach (why I brought up D Flores...he was the kind of guy you do what you need to to get) where they go volume but reserve some time, money, and effort for big-ticket guys who really look like something special, seems to be the way to go. The Yanks’ Dominguez this year is the sort of big-ticket guy I’m ok with them going all-in for. But even guys like that should be surrounded by a *bunch* of lower-cost signings. At 16-17, volume is a lot more likely to pay off than betting on two or three guys who stand out at 16. I remember dropping 13 seconds off my quarter mile time between sophomore and Sr years in HS. Some dudes just physically mature a little later, and you don’t wanna miss those kids especially when they’re such a signing bargain. I mean, Darwinzon for $7500??!! But yeah, Devers (and Bogey to an extent, though he was ~$400k, a significant but probably not top-25 in class guy) pay HUGE dividends. Honestly, I think the Sox ought to add a third DSL team and expand their scouting, and sign another 15 guys each year. The ROI on IFAs is something like 300% when you factor in facilities costs etc. I bet it’s even better when you just look at the low-cost sub-100k group.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 11, 2019 23:44:39 GMT -5
Yeah, sometimes you get what you pay for. Every few years, I’d love to see Sox spend big on a top 5 international prospect and go for it. Yankees just got Dominguez who looks like an incredible prospect You're operating under the assumption that the Red Sox are actively avoiding high bonus guys because they're expensive. They've probably determined that there's a higher success rate spreading the equity out among a lot of $400,000 guys than a couple $2,000,000 guys. And yeah there are some high bonus guys that work out but there are also a ton that don't, they just never get talked about, so the strategy is probably pretty sound Saying they should "go for it" for the sake of going for it ignores all the work that is put into scouting these guys. Saying you want a top 5 international prospect is so arbitrary because these guys are 16, they are nothing like what they are going to be as players when they are physically developed. I look at those prospect rankings but I put pretty little stock in it unless it's a rare talent like Dominguez. And you don't know that the Red Sox didn't try for him, signing is a two way street, he may have just preferred the Yankees. Point is, the IFA game is so unpredictable so it makes a lot more logical sense to cast a wide net and hope for hidden gems or late bloomers. Getting fixated on the idea of signing "a top 5 international prospect" just because makes it seem like you care more about the shiny new toy aspect of getting a highly esteemed 16 year old than the Red Sox actually getting useful players in international free agency.
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