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8/12-8/14 Red Sox @ Indians Series Thread
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 14, 2019 15:37:39 GMT -5
One of the best all - around games of the year.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 14, 2019 15:51:24 GMT -5
Great win!
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 14, 2019 16:12:00 GMT -5
Can the Red Sox bring back Cashner for the bullpen next year? That's 2 good innings in a row. Not used to that. That stuff is playing up in a big way. He might not be a dumpster fire after all
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 14, 2019 16:51:56 GMT -5
Can the Red Sox bring back Cashner for the bullpen next year? That's 2 good innings in a row. Not used to that. Cashner does look good out of the pen. Agreed. If he can do this the rest of the year.... I would try to bring him back.we hold his option for 10 million? It's a vesting option that he's not going to reach and I was more thinking of like a 2/$10M deal. But I was also kind of kidding with the short sample that is fun to overreact to.
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Post by manfred on Aug 14, 2019 18:13:39 GMT -5
8-10, a HR, 4 doubles. Have a week, Devers.
It might be time to offer him something silly as an extension.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 14, 2019 18:47:29 GMT -5
8-10, a HR, 4 doubles. Have a week, Devers. It might be time to offer him something silly as an extension. I’ve been riding the 15/500 train for 2 months!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2019 21:16:30 GMT -5
8-10, a HR, 4 doubles. Have a week, Devers. It might be time to offer him something silly as an extension. Yeah, but only 7 of the 8 hits had an EV of 103 or higher.
Of the 4 people since 2015 who had 5 balls of 103+ in a game, Devers is the only one to proceed or follow it with another game where he had two of 103+, and he did it in both. He had 2/3 in the preceding game and 2/4 in this one.
I wish I could figure out whether 9 for 13 is the best performance for EV >=103 in a three-game stretch, but it has to be up there.
This year, the odds of an average player doing that at random (or better) are 1 in 31,235.
But Devers also struck out just once in 14 AB in this series, and the odds against doing that (or better) are 2 in 15 (.134. The odds of hitting a ball 103+ are .133).
So the average player has a 1 in 232,876 chance of hitting the ball that consistently and that hard in 14 AB over three games.
I think he's not average.
(I incorrectly listed Matt Olson as one of those guys, but he had 5 in a doubleheader. Max Kepler went 0/3, 5/6, 1/2, Paul Goldschmidt 0/0 (fanned 3 times), 5/5, 0/2, and Nelson Cruz 1/3, 5/5, 1/4.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 14, 2019 22:26:33 GMT -5
8-10, a HR, 4 doubles. Have a week, Devers. It might be time to offer him something silly as an extension. Yeah, but only 7 of the 8 hits had an EV of 103 or higher. Of the 4 people since 2015 who had 5 balls of 103+ in a game, Devers is the only one to proceed or follow it with another game where he had two of 103+, and he did it in both. He had 2/3 in the preceding game and 2/4 in this one.
I wish I could figure out whether 9 for 13 is the best performance for EV >=103 in a three-game stretch, but it has to be up there. This year, the odds of an average player doing that at random (or better) are 1 in 31,235.
But Devers also struck out just once in 14 AB in this series, and the odds against doing that (or better) are 2 in 15 (.134. The odds of hitting a ball 103+ are .133).
So the average player has a 1 in 232,876 chance of hitting the ball that consistently and that hard in 14 AB over three games. I think he's not average. (I incorrectly listed Matt Olson as one of those guys, but he had 5 in a doubleheader. Max Kepler went 0/3, 5/6, 1/2, Paul Goldschmidt 0/0 (fanned 3 times), 5/5, 0/2, and Nelson Cruz 1/3, 5/5, 1/4.
I stopped watching after Devers got his 8th hit. So, he won't 0-2? Bum.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 14, 2019 23:06:49 GMT -5
Can the Red Sox bring back Cashner for the bullpen next year? That's 2 good innings in a row. Not used to that. That stuff is playing up in a big way. He might not be a dumpster fire after all He’d be a great swingman option at the right price. Multi-inning reliever who can stretch out and spot-start. Good depth for the rotation in a pinch, and looks like he can play up well out of the ‘pen. I like it. ‘Course, he’s gonna wanna start, cuz that’s where the money is. But idk that he gets much in terms of offers there.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 14, 2019 23:18:32 GMT -5
8-10, a HR, 4 doubles. Have a week, Devers. It might be time to offer him something silly as an extension. I’ve been riding the 15/500 train for 2 months! Not like the Sox will get so lucky, but I’m thinking more along the lines of Albies’s or Acuña’s deals. Devers would have a year more service time, and so he’s a little more predictable (that cuts both ways), but Albies was 7/$35M and Acuña 8/$100M. I say offer him something like 8-10/$100-120M with a couple of mutual options. That’s the precedent and Acuña’s arguably the more valuable player going forward (at least, CW would say, since he plays CF; personally I think Devers has only started scratching the surface...he looks like he’s gonna be Miggy with a good glove). It’ll hurt short-term for lux tax purposes but they can (and should) make it work. While they’re at it, they really, *really* need to lock up Beni before he breaks out. There’s the same short-term cost issue, but he’s another guy they oughta be thinking about keeping around for 6-8 more years. Something akin to Yelich’s first deal.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 14, 2019 23:26:29 GMT -5
Say what you will. If offered a 1 for 1 swap for Devers for Trout, I'm not taking it. With the salary and age difference...not to mention Devers’s work ethic and improvement on defense...yeah, I’d tend to agree. Devers probably won’t be a perennial 8-10 WAR player (he’d have to walk twice as much and become a GG candidate)...but honestly, there’s a non-homerism tangible possibility he does. He’s creeping 6 this year and he had a clear swing/approach change early on that unlocked his power, but still had 6 weeks of pretty much no HR. Coincidentally, his defense took a leap forward around the same time. Something clicked. Tbh, if he can cut his K rate by a third, while hitting for more power and a (legit by EV and LD rate) BABIP 80 points higher than last year...I wouldn’t bet against the walk rate skyrocketing.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 14, 2019 23:29:20 GMT -5
Of all the hitters, I think Devers is most juiced ball proof. Yeah his HR would go down if they ever "fixed" it, but hitting the ball hard would be a much bigger priority when hitting cheap HR wasn't possible all the time. I think others benefit a lot more than he does.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 14, 2019 23:30:40 GMT -5
I know Cashner looked good in two relief outings, but I have no desire to see the Red Sox bring him back, as a reliever or otherwise. Two outings is way too small a sample size to get excited about. I mean, keep an eye on the rest of the season as a reliever, sure, but he was a solid starter this year - until he got to Boston. His sample size of good starts this year was bigger than his relief pitching sample size and then he went south - as he is more in line with his track record.
I'd rather they simply let him go and look at other bullpen options and if they're going to spend some money like $5 million/year I'd rather it not be on Cashner.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 15, 2019 1:48:39 GMT -5
I know Cashner looked good in two relief outings, but I have no desire to see the Red Sox bring him back, as a reliever or otherwise. Two outings is way too small a sample size to get excited about. I mean, keep an eye on the rest of the season as a reliever, sure, but he was a solid starter this year - until he got to Boston. His sample size of good starts this year was bigger than his relief pitching sample size and then he went south - as he is more in line with his track record. I'd rather they simply let him go and look at other bullpen options and if they're going to spend some money like $5 million/year I'd rather it not be on Cashner. Or, we can wait and see how he handles the Pen (and Boston) over the next 6 weeks and then decide. He does have the “stuff” as his long career has shown. He may have produced as an average or below average starter, but his stuff and experience may actually be playing up in short stints as a reliever. He may have found a way to prolong his career, with a contending team, where he fits in, and go out a hero. Assessing Cashner as an effective reliever calls for patience. I am for witholding judgement until we know more.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 15, 2019 5:38:47 GMT -5
Eovaldi is starting to look in mid season form after his spring training basically in July. Cashner looks good in the bullpen. Sale is turning things around.
My worries is with Porcello. He's been crap all year and he could be the turd in the punch bowl when trying to make a miracle comeback run here. He has shown nothing in terms of turning it around either.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 15, 2019 5:43:53 GMT -5
I know Cashner looked good in two relief outings, but I have no desire to see the Red Sox bring him back, as a reliever or otherwise. Two outings is way too small a sample size to get excited about. I mean, keep an eye on the rest of the season as a reliever, sure, but he was a solid starter this year - until he got to Boston. His sample size of good starts this year was bigger than his relief pitching sample size and then he went south - as he is more in line with his track record. I'd rather they simply let him go and look at other bullpen options and if they're going to spend some money like $5 million/year I'd rather it not be on Cashner. I wouldn't be opposed to signing Cashner. His stuff plays up more in one inning stints. He's actually showing signs of missing bats all of a sudden now. Like he would have been the perfect kind of signing if he was a free agent reliever this past off-season. They should get two guys though. Not just sign Cashner and then say "yep we're good," like they did with Thornburg this past year.
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Post by patford on Aug 15, 2019 7:57:23 GMT -5
Eovaldi is starting to look in mid season form after his spring training basically in July. Cashner looks good in the bullpen. Sale is turning things around. My worries is with Porcello. He's been crap all year and he could be the turd in the punch bowl when trying to make a miracle comeback run here. He has shown nothing in terms of turning it around either. Porcello will turn things around when he is signed by the Yankees and will have the best seasons of his career.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 15, 2019 8:13:47 GMT -5
Eovaldi is starting to look in mid season form after his spring training basically in July. Cashner looks good in the bullpen. Sale is turning things around. My worries is with Porcello. He's been crap all year and he could be the turd in the punch bowl when trying to make a miracle comeback run here. He has shown nothing in terms of turning it around either. Porcello will turn things around when he is signed by the Yankees and will have the best seasons of his career. Porcello to Yankees....embedded Red Sox.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 15, 2019 8:44:54 GMT -5
Porcello is a particularly bad fit for Yankee Stadium, where every fly ball hit by a LHB is a homer, so I doubt that happens.
Either the Astros get him and are like "don't ever throw that useless changeup in the zone again" and he puts up a 3.10 ERA or the Cardinals get him and Cardinalize him.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 15, 2019 21:43:28 GMT -5
Of all the hitters, I think Devers is most juiced ball proof. Yeah his HR would go down if they ever "fixed" it, but hitting the ball hard would be a much bigger priority when hitting cheap HR wasn't possible all the time. I think others benefit a lot more than he does. 100%. Outstanding point. He’s not a FB hitter, and he’s not a hitter whose HR power depends on the extra 15-20’ from a juicier ball, on long pop-ups. He’s a LD hitter with 70+ raw power who rips a string of LONG HR at relatively low LAs. Just hits them so hard they go out. He would be a beast even back in the ‘60s with the huge parks. He might be the most weather-proof, too. Watching Bogey and Mookie dramatically improve their walk rates (both up 150-200% from their lows) over the last 4-5 years tells me Devers definitely (easily?) has it in him. Honestly, I think he might do it (substantially?) more quickly. He’s got almost preternatural bat speed, and he’s got remarkably good fine control. He’s looking more and more to me like he’s in the tiny group of the best hitters I’ve ever seen. I’d say he reminds me a little if peak Mattingly, except Devers has power to ALL fields...he doesn’t rely on pulling the ball. He’s got bat speed like Sheffield...but Devers’s “violence” is more controlled and deliberate. He can crush ANY pitch, as shown by that forever gloriously shocking bomb he ripped off Chapman at 103. Look at his Statcast: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/rafael-devers-646240?stats=career-r-hitting-mlbIt’s absolutely **ridiculous*. He made MLB well before 21, and he struggled to a .240/.298 (ugh)/.433 line at 21. And now at **just 22** (!!) he’s hitting .327/.375/.580. You’ve got to be kidding me. He hits FB, he hits breaking stuff, he hits offspeed. And think about this: he’s only 26th in MAX EV, at 115.0 mph. But he’s 11th in average EV. And as good as he’s been (cutting your whiff rate by 30% season-over season is tough), he’s still swinging at too much outside the zone, and he’s only barreling 9+%. And walking at just 7-8%. I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if he has one, maybe two more gears. If he can subscribe to and practice selective aggression, and as he becomes more feared as a hitter, pitchers will stay out of the zone more and he won’t swing at it. The K rate will stay flat (I think it might even go down), but the walks will skyrocket and the XBH might increase along with BA. He’s just a tremendously impressive young hitter.
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 16, 2019 0:54:12 GMT -5
Of all the hitters, I think Devers is most juiced ball proof. Yeah his HR would go down if they ever "fixed" it, but hitting the ball hard would be a much bigger priority when hitting cheap HR wasn't possible all the time. I think others benefit a lot more than he does. 100%. Outstanding point. He’s not a FB hitter, and he’s not a hitter whose HR power depends on the extra 15-20’ from a juicier ball, on long pop-ups. He’s a LD hitter with 70+ raw power who rips a string of LONG HR at relatively low LAs. Just hits them so hard they go out. He would be a beast even back in the ‘60s with the huge parks. He might be the most weather-proof, too. Watching Bogey and Mookie dramatically improve their walk rates (both up 150-200% from their lows) over the last 4-5 years tells me Devers definitely (easily?) has it in him. Honestly, I think he might do it (substantially?) more quickly. He’s got almost preternatural bat speed, and he’s got remarkably good fine control. He’s looking more and more to me like he’s in the tiny group of the best hitters I’ve ever seen. I’d say he reminds me a little if peak Mattingly, except Devers has power to ALL fields...he doesn’t rely on pulling the ball. He’s got bat speed like Sheffield...but Devers’s “violence” is more controlled and deliberate. He can crush ANY pitch, as shown by that forever gloriously shocking bomb he ripped off Chapman at 103. Look at his Statcast: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/rafael-devers-646240?stats=career-r-hitting-mlbIt’s absolutely **ridiculous*. He made MLB well before 21, and he struggled to a .240/.298 (ugh)/.433 line at 21. And now at **just 22** (!!) he’s hitting .327/.375/.580. You’ve got to be kidding me. He hits FB, he hits breaking stuff, he hits offspeed. And think about this: he’s only 26th in MAX EV, at 115.0 mph. But he’s 11th in average EV. And as good as he’s been (cutting your whiff rate by 30% season-over season is tough), he’s still swinging at too much outside the zone, and he’s only barreling 9+%. And walking at just 7-8%. I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if he has one, maybe two more gears. If he can subscribe to and practice selective aggression, and as he becomes more feared as a hitter, pitchers will stay out of the zone more and he won’t swing at it. The K rate will stay flat (I think it might even go down), but the walks will skyrocket and the XBH might increase along with BA. He’s just a tremendously impressive young hitter. agree on everything. Devers uses the opposite field as well as any lefty hitter I've ever seen.
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