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8/30-9/1 Red Sox @ Angels Series Thread
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Post by congusgambler33 on Aug 31, 2019 23:59:59 GMT -5
25 blown saves - we're number one! (in that category, anyway) actually it is 26 blown saves, but what is the difference.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 1, 2019 0:07:14 GMT -5
This is just unbelievable. How could a bullpen be so awful? blown saves by Barnes, Workman, and Brassier are around 20 of the team 27(?) BS. Your mind's gonna be blown when you find out there are 20 teams with a worse bullpen ERA... Brasier never would have had to come into this game if we had sufficient starting pitching in the first place. It's so simple with this team: the starting pitching has come up short - first due to performance, now due to injuries. I'll never understand why people insist on putting the blame anywhere else.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 1, 2019 0:11:52 GMT -5
25 blown saves - we're number one! (in that category, anyway) actually it is 26 blown saves, but what is the difference. Wow! Totally amazing we even have a winning record on this season. The offense has been amazing this year thus far. At least we have that.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 1, 2019 0:39:53 GMT -5
This is just unbelievable. How could a bullpen be so awful? blown saves by Barnes, Workman, and Brassier are around 20 of the team 27(?) BS. Your mind's gonna be blown when you find out there are 20 teams with a worse bullpen ERA... Brasier never would have had to come into this game if we had sufficient starting pitching in the first place. It's so simple with this team: the starting pitching has come up short - first due to performance, now due to injuries. I'll never understand why people insist on putting the blame anywhere else. That many blown saves indicates a fatal flaw. Unclutch pitching, along with unclutch hitting (at times). The starting pitching failed the team more though.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 1, 2019 1:01:06 GMT -5
Your mind's gonna be blown when you find out there are 20 teams with a worse bullpen ERA... Brasier never would have had to come into this game if we had sufficient starting pitching in the first place. It's so simple with this team: the starting pitching has come up short - first due to performance, now due to injuries. I'll never understand why people insist on putting the blame anywhere else. That many blown saves indicates a fatal flaw. Unclutch pitching, along with unclutch hitting (at times). The starting pitching failed the team more though. Has this blown saves thing not been put to bed yet? They have 2 more blown saves than the Yankees, 1 more than the Dodgers and Oakland. It's about as meaningful a stat as pitcher's wins. Or, you know, saves.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 1, 2019 1:25:58 GMT -5
That many blown saves indicates a fatal flaw. Unclutch pitching, along with unclutch hitting (at times). The starting pitching failed the team more though. Has this blown saves thing not been put to bed yet? They have 2 more blown saves than the Yankees, 1 more than the Dodgers and Oakland. It's about as meaningful a stat as pitcher's wins. Or, you know, saves. Meh, it still counts, but when you add the starting pitching problems on top of it, it compiles the issue. Your starters don't go deep and they give up a ton of runs and the bullpen performs. A starter will give you one good start a week and then a guy like Brasier will blow that great start. It's been happening all year.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 1, 2019 1:47:26 GMT -5
Sorry to come into the thread late. Doing grandpa stuff. Glad I missed the end of the game. Yuck.
Does anyone else think that sometimes Cora is sometimes just plain stubborn? I feel increasingly like we are being Farreled. Wrong pitcher, slow hook, fast hook, JDM in OF, Bradley left on the bench (or Holt or Marco). I feel so bad for Taylor two days in a row. When will he get his energy and confidence back?. Unlike Walden, Barnes, etc Brasier isn’t overworked, but why bring him back to blow the game? I know he is in a tough spot but some of his moves have been mystifying.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Sept 1, 2019 4:15:30 GMT -5
Pretty funny - saw the score and assumed they got blown out, only to see the insanity of the box score and sadness that this was a winnable game. Cora continues with his baffling management this year, a stark contrast to last season.
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 1, 2019 7:16:32 GMT -5
Sorry to come into the thread late. Doing grandpa stuff. Glad I missed the end of the game. Yuck. Does anyone else think that sometimes Cora is sometimes just plain stubborn? I feel increasingly like we are being Farreled. Wrong pitcher, slow hook, fast hook, JDM in OF, Bradley let on the bench (or Holt or Marco). I feel so bad for Taylor two days in a row. When will he get his energy and confidence back?. Unlike Walden, Barnes, etc Brasier isn’t overworked, but why bring him back to blow the game? I know he is in a tough spot but some of his moves have been mystifying. Only thing Cora has done right, what's the problem?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 1, 2019 7:35:33 GMT -5
That many blown saves indicates a fatal flaw. Unclutch pitching, along with unclutch hitting (at times). The starting pitching failed the team more though. Has this blown saves thing not been put to bed yet? They have 2 more blown saves than the Yankees, 1 more than the Dodgers and Oakland. It's about as meaningful a stat as pitcher's wins. Or, you know, saves. People are fixated on the bullpen and it's extremely annoying. If the Red Sox had gotten a little more out of Price/Sale this year, and had signed someone useful instead of Eovaldi, everyone would be talking about what geniuses they are for assembling this pen on the cheap.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 1, 2019 9:12:43 GMT -5
That many blown saves indicates a fatal flaw. Unclutch pitching, along with unclutch hitting (at times). The starting pitching failed the team more though. Has this blown saves thing not been put to bed yet? They have 2 more blown saves than the Yankees, 1 more than the Dodgers and Oakland. It's about as meaningful a stat as pitcher's wins. Or, you know, saves. Furthermore, the stat actually charges you with a blown save even if it's actually a blown hold. In theory, it would be possible for a team to have every reliever on the team except one get a blown save in a game, and win the game (without anyone getting a save).
It's mildly useful only for closers and beyond meaningless for everyone else.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 1, 2019 9:54:18 GMT -5
Has this blown saves thing not been put to bed yet? They have 2 more blown saves than the Yankees, 1 more than the Dodgers and Oakland. It's about as meaningful a stat as pitcher's wins. Or, you know, saves. People are fixated on the bullpen and it's extremely annoying. If the Red Sox had gotten a little more out of Price/Sale this year, and had signed someone useful instead of Eovaldi, everyone would be talking about what geniuses they are for assembling this pen on the cheap. On top of this, if their starters had succeeded in going deeper into games, they'd have to lean less on the weaker relievers, and the bullpen stats would look even better.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 1, 2019 10:27:34 GMT -5
Those Brasier splits are available with literally 10 seconds of work. When you look into them as I did yesterday, you discover that luck has made them smaller, not bigger.
Did analytics not figure this out?
The only alternatives were in AAA, right? And 3 time zones away? And what are you always saying about guys playing against their internal clock? Do you like Lakins pitching at midnight that much better than Brasier on 0 days' rest? I mean, maybe it would have been a better option. I don't know. But it wouldn't have actually been a good option. No matter what, this game was gonna have to get through a Brasier-like pothole in the road. It so happens that this particular pothole just completely did them in. Well, they did have two better options.
They clearly had a plan for the game. Stay away from Cashner and Darwinzon because they pitched too much yesterday. Stay away from Smith because he's your blowout-only guy. Johnson for 4 and Taylor, Walden, Barnes, Brasier, and Workman for one each. It sounds reasonable if you don't know that Brasier has been far below replacement level when going on 0 days rest, and clearly isn't physically 100% because his pitch movement declined along with his performance after late May.
If you know that, you simply try to get 5 out of Johnson. As it was, he was pulled after getting 10 outs in a row, including Trout swinging, and having thrown 53 pitches, less than the 60 he'd been averaging (he was coming off games of 67 and 61 and had a 70 in his first start off the DL).
And if you know that Brasier can't pitch back-to-back and you need about 10 innings from your bullpen over two days (excluding Johnson), maybe you fly Lakins in on the off day.
There are other puzzles. Over the last 3 years JBJ, against lefties on the road, has a .312 xwOBA and a .281 wOBA (203 PA). Sandy Leon is .232 / .179 (114 PA). So the whole Leon catches, CV plays 1B, Travis is the DH, JDM is in right, Mookie is in CF, JBJ sits is a big defensive and offensive downgrade! Leon can't be that much better a pitch-caller, correct? So why do this? Do they really have metrics that predict Leon will hit those specific starting pitchers (both rookies) much better than JBJ? That's just as dubious.
Cora justified leaving in JDM on Friday after he fanned to end the 8th because he didn't want to take out his "best hitter" with just a 2 run lead or less.
The trouble is, if JDM is going to hit again in any important situation, it's almost certainly going to be with the score tied, in extra innings. The exception would be if the Angels have a big bottom of the 8th and the Sox respond with an equally big top of the 9th.
And JDM with the score tied from the 7th onward was 0/22, 1 BB, 12 SO. In this game, he went 0/1, BB.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 1, 2019 10:49:17 GMT -5
The only alternatives were in AAA, right? And 3 time zones away? And what are you always saying about guys playing against their internal clock? Do you like Lakins pitching at midnight that much better than Brasier on 0 days' rest? I mean, maybe it would have been a better option. I don't know. But it wouldn't have actually been a good option. No matter what, this game was gonna have to get through a Brasier-like pothole in the road. It so happens that this particular pothole just completely did them in. Well, they did have two better options.
They clearly had a plan for the game. Stay away from Cashner and Darwinzon because they pitched too much yesterday. Stay away from Smith because he's your blowout-only guy. Johnson for 4 and Taylor, Walden, Barnes, Brasier, and Workman for one each. It sounds reasonable if you don't know that Brasier has been far below replacement level when going on 0 days rest, and clearly isn't physically 100% because his pitch movement declined along with his performance after late May.
If you know that, you simply try to get 5 out of Johnson. As it was, he was pulled after getting 10 outs in a row, including Trout swinging, and having thrown 53 pitches, less than the 60 he'd been averaging (he was coming off games of 67 and 61 and had a 70 in his first start off the DL).
And if you know that Brasier can't pitch back-to-back and you need about 10 innings from your bullpen over two days (excluding Johnson), maybe you fly Lakins in on the off day.
There are other puzzles. Over the last 3 years JBJ, against lefties on the road, has a .312 xwOBA and a .281 wOBA (203 PA). Sandy Leon is .232 / .179 (114 PA). So the whole Leon catches, CV plays 1B, Travis is the DH, JDM is in right, Mookie is in CF, JBJ sits is a big defensive and offensive downgrade! Leon can't be that much better a pitch-caller, correct? So why do this? Do they really have metrics that predict Leon will hit those specific starting pitchers (both rookies) much better than JBJ? That's just as dubious.
Cora justified leaving in JDM on Friday after he fanned to end the 8th because he didn't want to take out his "best hitter" with just a 2 run lead or less.
The trouble is, if JDM is going to hit again in any important situation, it's almost certainly going to be with the score tied, in extra innings. The exception would be if the Angels have a big bottom of the 8th and the Sox respond with an equally big top of the 9th.
And JDM with the score tied from the 7th onward was 0/22, 1 BB, 12 SO. In this game, he went 0/1, BB.
Yeah, actually, just having Johnson go one more inning would've made sense. I though maybe there were pitch count issues there, but based on what you say here, maybe not. And I did find the positional player stuff kind of perplexing. It seemed kind of over-thought - just play the best players at their best positions. Also during the game I was teeing up to complain about the 8th (?) inning, where we did all that bunting and pinch hitting, and if Holt had simply made an out, rather than grounding into a double play, all it would have gotten us was bases loaded and two outs with... Sandy Leon up to bat. And we couldn't even have pinch hit for him if we wanted to because we'd already pinch hit for Vazquez.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 1, 2019 10:55:55 GMT -5
People are fixated on the bullpen and it's extremely annoying. If the Red Sox had gotten a little more out of Price/Sale this year, and had signed someone useful instead of Eovaldi, everyone would be talking about what geniuses they are for assembling this pen on the cheap. On top of this, if their starters had succeeded in going deeper into games, they'd have to lean less on the weaker relievers, and the bullpen stats would look even better. I think that goes to Eric's point about the bullpen ranking highly on the positive AND negative win probability leaderboards. It's not a bad bullpen, it's an overexposed bullpen. Also, I think people aren't fully adjusting for the league context. Everyone is having bullpen problems. Bullpen ERAs are up half a run across baseball. That isn't a handful of awful teams dragging the average down either, the five best bullpen ERAs in baseball this year are about a half a run worse than the five best last year.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 1, 2019 11:18:03 GMT -5
On top of this, if their starters had succeeded in going deeper into games, they'd have to lean less on the weaker relievers, and the bullpen stats would look even better. I think that goes to Eric's point about the bullpen ranking highly on the positive AND negative win probability leaderboards. It's not a bad bullpen, it's an overexposed bullpen. Also, I think people aren't fully adjusting for the league context. Everyone is having bullpen problems. Bullpen ERAs are up half a run across baseball. That isn't a handful of awful teams dragging the average down either, the five best bullpen ERAs in baseball this year are about a half a run worse than the five best last year. Clearly, the only thing wrong with the Red Sox this year is that the fans aren't running the team. The only way to whine about this correctly is to overblame the bullpen, since (almost) no one can say with a straight face that they knew they'd get almost nothing out of their entire starting rotation and should have replaced all of them with someone better as if that's even remotely possible.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 1, 2019 12:07:46 GMT -5
THE RED SOX HAVE DONE A GREAT JOB EVERYONE!!! THE FANS ARE SPOILED AND DUMB!!
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 1, 2019 12:10:24 GMT -5
Weber, Centeno are very likely additions today.
Curletta is not in Seadogs lineup. Look for him to go DFA, waived off 40-man to give Centeno a spot.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 1, 2019 12:22:35 GMT -5
I'm confused why Curletta is on the 40 man roster. He was waived by Seattle in May and the Sox claimed him. Why did he have to go on the 40 man then?
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 1, 2019 12:49:58 GMT -5
I'm sick of 85 MPH Brian Johnson and his 3-4 Inning outings. Yawn. Please find a workhorse who can eat up innings. That's what Cashner was for -- and that's what they got out of him Saturday night. Think about this: If Cashner had been good enough as a starter instead of falling apart after the trade, he would have started tonight, but not been available last night, and the Sox probably lose that game. What killed this game wasn't anyone who pitched today. It was Workman's failed save in the 9th last night that turned into a 15-inning game one day too early.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 1, 2019 12:51:18 GMT -5
A set of ho hum additions....
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 1, 2019 12:52:41 GMT -5
I'm sick of 85 MPH Brian Johnson and his 3-4 Inning outings. Yawn. Please find a workhorse who can eat up innings. What killed this game wasn't anyone who pitched today. It was Workman's failed save in the 9th last night that turned into a 15-inning game one day too early. Yes. The failed bullpen lead to more people being unavailable the next day. The starters not doing their job is one thing, but when you completely ignore that the bullpen is shooting itself in the foot half the time, then well, we will agree to disagree then.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 1, 2019 14:28:05 GMT -5
Bullpen: "shooting self in foot. It's what we do."
Gorkys. U didn't see that one. Good OF. Good pinchrunner. Not great basestealer. 28/40 MLB. Is 30% CS rate.
5 pitchers added. Anti-climactic. U wanna know where they were yesterday
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Post by soxjim on Sept 1, 2019 14:52:00 GMT -5
THE RED SOX HAVE DONE A GREAT JOB EVERYONE!!! THE FANS ARE SPOILED AND DUMB!! One of the few times I agree with your posts if we're talking over last 15 years. They've been the most successful organization in baseball. I can remember a poster last year going off on the Red Sox in April because they weren't beating Tampa Bay by enough runs. Yep - that IS "spoiled." Those fans you are never going to please. They can't wait to complain the very next pitch.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 1, 2019 14:56:45 GMT -5
I'm confused why Curletta is on the 40 man roster. He was waived by Seattle in May and the Sox claimed him. Why did he have to go on the 40 man then? In order for a 40-man player to become a non-roster player (non-40-man), all 30 teams have to pass on him. Curletta went on waivers Fri at 2pm, came off today at 1pm. Nobody claimed him, which allows Sox to remove him from roster. Seattle wasn't successful. Sox claimed. So he went to their 40-man roster. Rules protect the player from being downgraded when other teams want him. www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3525
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