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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 12, 2019 15:48:26 GMT -5
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Post by costpet on Oct 12, 2019 17:57:38 GMT -5
If they trade him or let him go, they will regret it for the next 10 years or when he decides to retire.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 13, 2019 13:49:13 GMT -5
Interesting trade packages, gives you a bunch of different options. I really like Adrian Morejon as a near MLB ready arm. Plus if they really want him we should demand Espinoza as a throw in!
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Post by telson13 on Oct 13, 2019 19:07:24 GMT -5
Idk...package 1 is silly because it’s all “contention now” MLB return and if the Sox trade Mookie they’re out of contention. I guess they could sell off those pieces for prospects (Yates ought to bring something intriguing), but it doesn’t really fit as a direct move. Yates is a star but the rest is all average filler.
Package 2 is a *little* closer...only because Patiño has 2 upside and will start the year in AA, at just 20. Idk why they keep giving the Sox Renfroe...he has no long-term place on this team. He has very good power, but he’s basically about what they can expect from Bobby Dalbec. As such Renfroe has zero value to them...he’s more expensive and he’ll be 28, meaning he’s pretty much announced who he is, and it’s not impressive. Jankowski would be a waste of a roster spot. No thanks.
Package 3? Joey Lucchesi? Of the 90 mph FB and middling other stuff? Seriously? He’s an ok 4/5, but they need at least a 2/3 for Mookie, with upside. Campusano is mildly intriguing, but they have a C already, a pretty solid one. And Renfroe again is just plain stupid...remember Chris Carter hitting 40 hr and nobody wanting him? A Renfroe facsimile could be available in FA for less than his salary right now.
These are all significant underpays for a guy the Sox would absolutely need an overpay on. I agree with UMass re: Morejon, he’s not great but there is upside. It would have to be something like Yates-Patiño-Morejon to make it worth giving up in ‘20, and the Padres likely won’t pay that.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 14, 2019 8:22:29 GMT -5
Package 2 is a *little* closer...only because Patiño has 2 upside and will start the year in AA, at just 20. Idk why they keep giving the Sox Renfroe...he has no long-term place on this team. He has very good power, but he’s basically about what they can expect from Bobby Dalbec. As such Renfroe has zero value to them...he’s more expensive and he’ll be 28, meaning he’s pretty much announced who he is, and it’s not impressive. Jankowski would be a waste of a roster spot. No thanks. He's their JBJ, apparently. That guy who you know isn't that good or that cheap or that young, but you can talk yourself into thinking must have value on the trade market, even though those things are inherently contradictory. The rue for a trade proposal is this: if you're constructing them such that there's no possible way you'd end up regretting the trade, you're constructing bad trades.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 14, 2019 10:17:49 GMT -5
Package 2 is a *little* closer...only because Patiño has 2 upside and will start the year in AA, at just 20. Idk why they keep giving the Sox Renfroe...he has no long-term place on this team. He has very good power, but he’s basically about what they can expect from Bobby Dalbec. As such Renfroe has zero value to them...he’s more expensive and he’ll be 28, meaning he’s pretty much announced who he is, and it’s not impressive. Jankowski would be a waste of a roster spot. No thanks. He's their JBJ, apparently. That guy who you know isn't that good or that cheap or that young, but you can talk yourself into thinking must have value on the trade market, even though those things are inherently contradictory. The rue for a trade proposal is this: if you're constructing them such that there's no possible way you'd end up regretting the trade, you're constructing bad trades. Except Renfroe might be worth a B-grade prospect for a team with a clear need. The Sox have reasonable equivalents for Renfroe in Chavis and Dalbec, so they don’t really have a “need.” Trading JBJ *will* hurt, because he’s a good defensive CF who hits enough to start. That’s a rarer commodity than a COF. And I’m not talking about packaging JBJ, Casas, and Taylor for a year of a 6-10 win player. I’m taking about finding someone who would return Tanner Houck for JBJ.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 14, 2019 10:21:12 GMT -5
Package 2 is a *little* closer...only because Patiño has 2 upside and will start the year in AA, at just 20. Idk why they keep giving the Sox Renfroe...he has no long-term place on this team. He has very good power, but he’s basically about what they can expect from Bobby Dalbec. As such Renfroe has zero value to them...he’s more expensive and he’ll be 28, meaning he’s pretty much announced who he is, and it’s not impressive. Jankowski would be a waste of a roster spot. No thanks. He's their JBJ, apparently. That guy who you know isn't that good or that cheap or that young, but you can talk yourself into thinking must have value on the trade market, even though those things are inherently contradictory. The rue for a trade proposal is this: if you're constructing them such that there's no possible way you'd end up regretting the trade, you're constructing bad trades. I think also from a San Diego fan's perspective, they realize they have no use for Renfroe if they get Mookie, so might as well throw him in thinking he's worth something. To me he would provide depth post-Mookie and the Red Sox could always non-tender him. So might have a tiny bit of positive value depending on the timing of the trade.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 14, 2019 12:07:10 GMT -5
Renfoe isn't great by any means. Yet he's been worth 2.4 and 2.6 bwar the last two years and isn't a free agent till 2024. He's also been plus 27 in DRS the last two years in the OF. I don't fully buy the plus 22 this year, I'm not going to call him elite. Yet he seems to be well above average and that is needed in RF at Fenway.
The Padres system is loaded, their top six guys are all top 100 guys per MLB.com. Morejon was rated #52, #49, and #72 pre-2019 by Baseball America, MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus, pre-2018 it was 66, 50, and 50. He's considered very advanced for his age due to his time playing in Cuba when he was younger.
Patino is farther away, a little more risky but has great stuff and is currently rated higher. Personally I'd take the power lefty Morejon if I had to pick. Getting both would change the pitching in the whole system.
Yates might not seem to make sense if you trade Betts. Yet imagine were out of it at the deadline and what you could get for him? Like I'm shocked they didn't trade him at the deadline.
Renfoe, Yates, Patino, Morejon, and Espinoza would be my asking price after a quick glance at their system. Renfoe and Yates help next year. Morejon looks ready to be starting depth even if his innings need to be watched closely. Then you get two big long-term arms. Yet it also doesn't include the Padres top two prospects, but is their #3, #7, and #29 prospects.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 14, 2019 19:20:03 GMT -5
Seems like there's consternation on whether the Padres will protect Espinoza for the rule 5 draft. He's expected to miss most, if not all, of the season and with their deep system they're in a serious crunch.
May make sense for the Red Sox to trade for him independently as they could stash him on their 40 without releasing anyone nearly as talented.
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Post by soxaddict on Oct 15, 2019 10:58:09 GMT -5
I think we match up great with the Dodgers. Mookie Betts and David Price for A.J.Pollock, Joe Kelly, Julio Urias and Gavin Lux.
The Dodgers are in win now mode. Price would only cost them an average of $7,778,000 over the next three years. Ryu and Hill are both free agents. That would give them an outfield of Betts, Bellinger and Pederson/Verdugo.
That would save us around $36,000,000 for 2020 and put us well under the luxury tax threshold.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 15, 2019 11:50:45 GMT -5
I think we match up great with the Dodgers. Mookie Betts and David Price for A.J.Pollock, Joe Kelly, Julio Urias and Gavin Lux. The Dodgers are in win now mode. Price would only cost them an average of $7,778,000 over the next three years. Ryu and Hill are both free agents. That would give them an outfield of Betts, Bellinger and Pederson/Verdugo. That would save us around $36,000,000 for 2020 and put us well under the luxury tax threshold. Dodgers are going for one of Cole or Strasburg and will have zero interest in Price.
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Post by soxaddict on Oct 15, 2019 12:17:37 GMT -5
I think we match up great with the Dodgers. Mookie Betts and David Price for A.J.Pollock, Joe Kelly, Julio Urias and Gavin Lux. The Dodgers are in win now mode. Price would only cost them an average of $7,778,000 over the next three years. Ryu and Hill are both free agents. That would give them an outfield of Betts, Bellinger and Pederson/Verdugo. That would save us around $36,000,000 for 2020 and put us well under the luxury tax threshold. Dodgers are going for one of Cole or Strasburg and will have zero interest in Price. If I'm the Dodgers and could replace A.J.Pollock with Mookie Betts, and move Joe Kelly, I'd take Price in heartbeat.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 15, 2019 12:23:17 GMT -5
Dodgers are going for one of Cole or Strasburg and will have zero interest in Price. If I'm the Dodgers and could replace A.J.Pollock with Mookie Betts, and move Joe Kelly, I'd take Price in heartbeat. I think I'd sign Cole and not give up anyone if they're adding that much salary.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 15, 2019 13:51:16 GMT -5
Dodgers are going for one of Cole or Strasburg and will have zero interest in Price. If I'm the Dodgers and could replace A.J.Pollock with Mookie Betts, and move Joe Kelly, I'd take Price in heartbeat. You'd want to replace the good player who you just signed last offseason? Julio Urias and Gavin Lux. Dude.
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Post by soxaddict on Oct 15, 2019 14:46:24 GMT -5
If you're the Dodgers, you wouldn't want to replace Pollack with Betts?
Too much for Betts?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 15, 2019 15:07:15 GMT -5
If I'm the Dodgers and could replace A.J.Pollock with Mookie Betts, and move Joe Kelly, I'd take Price in heartbeat. You'd want to replace the good player who you just signed last offseason? Julio Urias and Gavin Lux. Dude. Pollock has three years 51 million left on his deal, just gave them .2 bwar in his age 31 season. His D tanked and he went hitless in the playoffs. Yea I think they want to move him if they can.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 15, 2019 17:29:51 GMT -5
Pollock has three years 51 million left on his deal, just gave them .2 bwar in his age 31 season. His D tanked and he went hitless in the playoffs. Yea I think they want to move him if they can. Maybe people don't know what happened with Pollock this year: dodgers.mlblogs.com/the-hardest-part-was-the-wait-for-pollock-who-nears-his-return-7148a409760He hit .288/.348/.537 after returning from that. He had some bad defensive metrics but it's a relatively small sample, he's been good in the past, and his raw speed hasn't tanked, so I'd expect that to rebound. Despite the low WAR total in one season, there's not much to indicate that Polluck is anything other than the guy the Dodgers thought they were getting for a very reasonable $12m AAV. Not that he's an untouchable player or anything, but they're not going to give up value just to get rid of him. He's good and he's cheap.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 17, 2019 11:27:21 GMT -5
Pollock has three years 51 million left on his deal, just gave them .2 bwar in his age 31 season. His D tanked and he went hitless in the playoffs. Yea I think they want to move him if they can. Maybe people don't know what happened with Pollock this year: dodgers.mlblogs.com/the-hardest-part-was-the-wait-for-pollock-who-nears-his-return-7148a409760He hit .288/.348/.537 after returning from that. He had some bad defensive metrics but it's a relatively small sample, he's been good in the past, and his raw speed hasn't tanked, so I'd expect that to rebound. Despite the low WAR total in one season, there's not much to indicate that Polluck is anything other than the guy the Dodgers thought they were getting for a very reasonable $12m AAV. Not that he's an untouchable player or anything, but they're not going to give up value just to get rid of him. He's good and he's cheap. He got that deal in part because he gets injured all the time, only played over 130 games twice in his career. He's likely not that bad defensively, yet the days of him being elite or close to that are likely done. His D has decreased for four straight years by both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for example. He's at that age where players like him start to really decline. They back loaded the deal only paying him six million last year, which leaves three years and 51 million if they buyout his age 35 season. You'd also have that money on the books for a guy not playing in that 5th year. It's highly debatable if he has any value right now. I mean AAV is great for the few teams up against the luxury tax, most teams care about the fact he's owed three years at 17 million. His D would really need to bounce back for him to have value going forward and buck that four year downward trend.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Nov 25, 2019 9:08:34 GMT -5
Good YouTube video of the trade possibilities for Mookie Betts and surprising teams who could have a shot here-
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 10, 2019 14:19:40 GMT -5
Yay. This is what we wanted, right?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2019 15:39:58 GMT -5
Yay. This is what we wanted, right? Sure, then they could use 60% of Price's contract to replace him with someone worse.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 10, 2019 16:06:55 GMT -5
The Red Sox need more pitching, not less. Like the only way that make any sense at all is that you can get one or two major league ready starters for Price after paying down his salary.
If you trade him to get below the tax line, then have no money to add people knowing Betts will leave in one year. That is crazy stupid. If you know he is likely leaving, not trading him only makes sense if you are a legit contender. A good chance to win the division. I don't see how you can make that happen if you want to get below the 208 tax line.
Why else would you trade Price now while paying 40% of his salary? I don't think it's to go out and spend more money.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Dec 10, 2019 16:10:49 GMT -5
Yay. This is what we wanted, right? Sure, then they could use 60% of Price's contract to replace him with someone worse. I could care less if they keep Price. In fact, I hope they do. I just hope if they trade one player to shed salary, he would be the guy to go because of the age and salary attached. They are going to try and get under because of this- Can't wait to lose Mookie for essentially nothing!!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 10, 2019 16:52:27 GMT -5
Our owners own newspaper claiming crazy numbers. I can't read it because you need a subscription. Yet in our two years going over we only spent 25 million on tax payments and now want to reset. The tax rate only goes up 20% in the third year. So how in the world are they saving 90 to 100 million?
If they didn't reset 12 million in 2018 becomes roughly 24.9 million
13 million last year becomes 22.4 million.
They would litterally save 22.3 million or about 11 million per season. They'd have to stay over like nine years or plan on really blowing past the highest tax line by a ton.
The biggest savings isn't luxury tax money or cost, but reducing payroll by 40 million. Even at the highest amount, if you stay below the highest tax line, the taxes aren't much money.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 10, 2019 17:27:39 GMT -5
If the Red Sox get the sense that Mookie would rather be elsewhere in 2021 and beyond they should trade him for the best package they can get if that package increases their percentage of winning in future years more than Mookie by himself increases their chances in 2020.
Yes, having Mookie in 2020 increases the Sox chances of making the playoffs, but those chances are most likely as a wild card team. And if they're dumping Price and staying under the limit is how the Sox must operate, then even if they dip under they're not going to have the funds to replenish their losses or improve their team at the deadline.
I honestly think the Sox top priority this year is getting under the limit, not doing everything within reason to field the best team they can. I'm not wagging an accusatory finger at them. I have no idea if they really save 90 to 100 million by dipping under this year. If they do then what they should be building toward is putting the best team they can for 2021 and beyond - when they're able to put the money into the team they need to - to win.
This offseason is not about building a winning team. Hard to get overly excited about it unless Bloom somehow grabs a gem out of a salary dump, which is unlikely. If he did that he would truly be executive of the year.
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