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2019 Premier12 Tournament
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 13, 2019 1:07:58 GMT -5
USA eliminated with a 2-1 loss.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 13, 2019 9:00:14 GMT -5
Thanks for the updates. Hope we see that guy mashing in Boston this year. |
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2019 9:17:55 GMT -5
Dalbec batted .273/.407/.591 in the tournament with 5 BB, 7 K, 2 HR, 7 RBI in 27 PAs.
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Post by ramireja on Nov 13, 2019 11:35:49 GMT -5
Phils thanks for keeping us updated throughout the tourney here!
Here's a Noah Song FB from yesterday as well:
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2019 11:44:06 GMT -5
^ 158 km/h = 98.2 mph
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 13, 2019 11:48:07 GMT -5
I missed most of the game, off and on, and missed the first inning but Houck looked excellent when I did see him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2019 12:41:34 GMT -5
Pitch is a good example of what's good and bad with his fastball. Good, easy velo and a strike, but while to the untrained (read: non-SP Forum member) eye out looks like he paints the black on the inside, note that the catcher was set up outside. FB command will be a key development point. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 15, 2019 9:52:12 GMT -5
Pitch is a good example of what's good and bad with his fastball. Good, easy velo and a strike, but while to the untrained (read: non-SP Forum member) eye out looks like he paints the black on the inside, note that the catcher was set up outside. FB command will be a key development point. And the full inning rather than one pitch posted in Noah's thread shows a good example of why it's not such a "key developmental point". Sorry, still not buying your command grade. |
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 15, 2019 10:05:42 GMT -5
I'm not sure I agree. Missing a spot like that even a couple times out of 10 is enough to question someone's command, because consistency is so key. In an extreme case I'd think of Rick Porcello, who has very good stuff and whose control is quite good but often misses with too much plate when he doesn't elevate his fastball enough, with disastrous results. Or Matt Barnes, Manny Delcarmen, people of that nature who miss spots and end up hittable too often. Delcarmen, particularly would frustrate the heck out of all of us when he'd miss on an 0-2 fastball that he was supposed to keep away from the batter and he didn't. Now, Barnes and Porcello are successful MLB pitchers and Delcarmen was for a short time as well, so yeah, if Noah Song can be Rick Porcello in a couple years then that's a huge victory. But I also don't think Song's stuff is where theirs are/were (at least not yet).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 15, 2019 11:07:03 GMT -5
I'm not sure I agree. Missing a spot like that even a couple times out of 10 is enough to question someone's command, because consistency is so key. In an extreme case I'd think of Rick Porcello, who has very good stuff and whose control is quite good but often misses with too much plate when he doesn't elevate his fastball enough, with disastrous results. Or Matt Barnes, Manny Delcarmen, people of that nature who miss spots and end up hittable too often. Delcarmen, particularly would frustrate the heck out of all of us when he'd miss on an 0-2 fastball that he was supposed to keep away from the batter and he didn't. Now, Barnes and Porcello are successful MLB pitchers and Delcarmen was for a short time as well, so yeah, if Noah Song can be Rick Porcello in a couple years then that's a huge victory. But I also don't think Song's stuff is where theirs are/were (at least not yet). That single pitch was his first pitch after entering the game and Rick Porcello doesn't hit 97. Watch the full inning or even go back and look at the replays of previous games (I haven't, just from memory). He's not all over the place, repeats his delivery, throws strikes, has consistent movement and usually hits the mitt. To me, that's not a 40 or 45. Our mileages can differ, everybody doesn't need to be on the same page. For me, the questions and his battleground are how he will adjust to pitching every 5 days, how his command holds up when he's using all 4 of his pitches and how will his velocity and command hold up deeper into games than he's pitched this year. ADD: Season totals, Lowell & USA, 21 IP 25 K 6 BB. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 15, 2019 11:27:48 GMT -5
LOL, you made me work.
Song USA stats.
4IP 1H 0R 1BB 6K 50pitches/35 strikes
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Post by ramireja on Nov 15, 2019 11:55:16 GMT -5
I'm not sure I agree. Missing a spot like that even a couple times out of 10 is enough to question someone's command, because consistency is so key. In an extreme case I'd think of Rick Porcello, who has very good stuff and whose control is quite good but often misses with too much plate when he doesn't elevate his fastball enough, with disastrous results. Or Matt Barnes, Manny Delcarmen, people of that nature who miss spots and end up hittable too often. Delcarmen, particularly would frustrate the heck out of all of us when he'd miss on an 0-2 fastball that he was supposed to keep away from the batter and he didn't. Now, Barnes and Porcello are successful MLB pitchers and Delcarmen was for a short time as well, so yeah, if Noah Song can be Rick Porcello in a couple years then that's a huge victory. But I also don't think Song's stuff is where theirs are/were (at least not yet). Seems like a high bar to me though although admittedly I think its a really interesting and open question (i.e., what's th bar for 40 command? 50 command? 60 command?). I will say though, when I'm watching MLB level pitchers, if they're nailing their spots on greater than 80% of their pitches, to me, that seems pretty damn good. Do you really think E-Rod hits his spot 4 out of 5 times or more? I suppose the follow-up question, and you allude to this, is where does the pitcher tend to miss? In that single inning clip of Song, when he missed, he tended to miss just barely away from the catcher's mitt (borderline framable strikes), which is obviously a better place to miss than the heart of the plate. In fact, in that inning, he left nothing up and over the plate. Pretty impressive inning. I'm not going to put a number on Song's control/command, but I will say in small sample sizes, I've been pretty impressed and think his control/command seems advanced relative to his peers (i.e., High-A arms). Maybe its still 40/45 command, but with his FB and stuff, and I don't think he would need to improve much to look like an MLB caliber arm. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 15, 2019 12:10:52 GMT -5
I was using the one pitch on video as context to make a point. I wasn't saying because he missed location on one pitch he had poor command. I'm not even saying he has poor command.
I already went pitch by pitch through a full inning of his in this thread. I'm not cherry picking. I plan to go back and watch all of his outings from this tourney given how great the video quality has been. Will post full thoughts then. But I'm saying something I've seen having seen him in person multiple times this year and now having watched him in this tournament.
FWIW I do think missing on 1 or 2 of 10 pitches is a high bar, but it's also oversimplifying to look at it that way. By how much is he missing? Where is he missing? Etc. I'm not saying he needs Maddox command. I'm saying missing the catcher's target by the width of the plate isn't great. If that's the one time he did it in the outing? Cool. But that's not been the case when I've seen him.
Part of why I hate dissecting prospects like this is you lose the point. I REALLY LIKE SONG. He's 8th on my personal ranking. If they put him in the bullpen he could probably be in the majors in 2021, easily. He was a steal in the 4th and a mega steal at that bonus, especially if he gets his waiver. I'm just saying tuning up his command will go a long way to determining just how good he'll be.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 15, 2019 12:22:17 GMT -5
OK, to prove I'm not out to get the kid, his command here is much better. Only really missed on the 0-1 to the second hitter, but got away with it. This is at least 55 command for me.
I feel like the breaking pitch is the slider? Velo on first K is 87mph, second is 86.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 15, 2019 12:25:14 GMT -5
I don't think I communicated what I meant correctly, and as someone in charge of communicating words correctly that is on me. When I say "Missing a spot like that even a couple times out of 10" I didn't mean that he has to hit his spot precisely eight out of 10 times, I mean that he can't miss "like that" with any sort of frequency. The "like that" being in reference to the previous post, where Song missed entirely across the plate. Song appears to have the stuff to be able to succeed at some level with mediocre (think 50-55) command.
It's also nice to have some evidence that yes, his fastball velocity will play up in the bullpen. That's the assumption but it doesn't always play up in that way.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 15, 2019 12:33:34 GMT -5
Strikes me as odd where Song gets disected over command for locating spots during the tournament, probably because 1st time he's been on broadcast for the most part except for think was 1 game believe saw him on via MiLB broadcasts, yet Dalbec and the holes/ long swing he has had since was drafted STILL gets a pass as to how he will fare at the MLB level, much less AAA where he'll be at in 2020 against better pitching.
This biased vs certain prospects has gone on for years and been noticed. So has not getting off the band wagon of them until the complete breakdown. Yes.. I can go too far sometimes and be obnoxious to some, but also call things out have seen over the years.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 15, 2019 12:43:05 GMT -5
Our site has consistently been slightly lower on Dalbec than the consensus, and I've consistently been more bearish/harsh on Dalbec than our own site's brass, so it's odd that he'd be your pick here.
Baseball Prospectus has Song ranked 2nd (along with some other rankings that are pretty far out from the consensus), MLB.com has him 15th, and we have him 8th. I think listening to the podcast particularly will give an indication about the level of excitement about Song, already ranked the highest among the 2019 draftees.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 15, 2019 14:38:50 GMT -5
Yeah literally nobody is ignoring Dalbec's issues. It's been a topic of discussion for like 3 years now.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 15, 2019 16:53:47 GMT -5
Yeah literally nobody is ignoring Dalbec's issues. It's been a topic of discussion for like 3 years now. I would argue it's been one of the most debated topics, prospects-wise, that I can remember since I started reading this board like 8 years ago. |
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 15, 2019 18:09:04 GMT -5
Wasn't trying to start some kind of nasty contest or anything with my above post, only temper expectations when kids struggle and stop expecting as much from them after have shown they are failing, or struggling. Dalbec was an example, latest of 1 IMO had been given the glory push. Could have named off Brian Johnson and the grand example.. Wil Middlebrooks.
Once again, the site is outstanding and proud to be a member of it. Come here daily to chk it out. Maybe everyone has an opinion on who is what type of prospect, but statuses do change.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 16, 2019 1:44:13 GMT -5
Apparently, It ain't over yet....
USA Baseball @usabaseball
Chinese Taipei defeats Australia and we are playing for a spot in the #Tokyo2020 Games tomorrow in the bronze medal game.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 16, 2019 2:20:57 GMT -5
OK, to prove I'm not out to get the kid, his command here is much better. Only really missed on the 0-1 to the second hitter, but got away with it. This is at least 55 command for me. I feel like the breaking pitch is the slider? Velo on first K is 87mph, second is 86. I doubt if anyone here thinks you are out to get the kid and that's not what I was saying. We just had a difference of opinion. I've only seen his USA games, missed his appearance on MiLB TV. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 16, 2019 3:51:43 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 16, 2019 6:29:54 GMT -5
USA Baseball @usabaseball
·
BREAKING: We turn to @cody_Ponce48 on the mound against Mexico in the bronze medal game and to lead us to #Tokyo2020. #ForGlory🇺🇸
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 16, 2019 11:18:48 GMT -5
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